Article: Ervin Santana: To Trade Or Not To Trade?

[mlhouse]

 

31-26, first place. Plenty of time for the shiny new things if and when the season goes south.

 

 

Smoke and mirrors.... when you have a run differential of -24 you are playing with luck. So why pretend?

 

Our veteran starting rotation sucks outside of Santana.  Our veteran relief corp sucks outside on perhaps Kintzler and Breslow, both into their 30's.  Duffy and Rogers have been reasonable but we all know their inconsistencies.  

 

The time to move on from Hector Santiago, Phil Hughes, and Kyle Gibson is now even though you are selling low, and an argument can be made to sell high on Ervin Santana, Craig Breslow, and Brandon KIntzler.  Perhaps even Brian Dozier.

 

 

[gunnarthor]

If you want to get rid of Santana to improve our pitching staff it means you think you can get a mini-Santana back in a trade that might be ready by 2019 or you're willing to accept some backend arms under team control like Montgomery.

 

If you think Santana won't be good next year, why would a team trade for him?

 

 

[Brock Beauchamp]

The Twins are still in first place.

 

So, no, you do not trade from a position of weakness unless the return is so astounding good that you can't refuse the offer.

 

And that is so unlikely to happen that it's not worth mentioning.

[USAFChief]

For me it comes down to 2 questions. 

 

Do I see Ervin continuing to pitch like this at age 35 and 36?

No

 

Do I think the Twins can put together an above average rotation via FA and in house prospects?

Not particularly. 

 

If they had even average pitching my feelings might be different but I think it would be a mistake not to trade Ervin if they're able to pick up a couple cost controlled arms that have the chance to be at least what Santana has been career wise. I get that everybody is excited they're not 15+ games under .500 right now but I would gladly sacrifice what was already pegged as another rebuilding year if it means the difference between acquiring the pieces necessary to field a truly competitive rotation vs hoping to avoid implosion and rolling the dice on a one game wild card.

 

Fair. I disagree, but fair.

[Brock Beauchamp]

 

Smoke and mirrors.... when you have a run differential of -24 you are playing with luck. So why pretend?

 

Our veteran starting rotation sucks outside of Santana.  Our veteran relief corp sucks outside on perhaps Kintzler and Breslow, both into their 30's.  Duffy and Rogers have been reasonable but we all know their inconsistencies.  

 

The time to move on from Hector Santiago, Phil Hughes, and Kyle Gibson is now even though you are selling low, and an argument can be made to sell high on Ervin Santana, Craig Breslow, and Brandon KIntzler.  Perhaps even Brian Dozier.

The thing about luck is that there is no inevitable "counter-luck" to balance the season. The Twins have been moderately lucky, yes, but their BaseRuns record is 28-29 so it's not an extreme shift in either direction (and BaseRuns is a better metric than pythag, as it tries to measure a lot more than just pure run output).

 

The Twins could play .500 ball the rest of the season (which is close to their BaseRuns output thus far) and challenge for the division and wild card deep into the season. One six week long hot streak from Brian Dozier and they can be quite a bit better than that, either winning the division or a wild card appearance.

 

The Twins are a flawed team, yes. That's why I wouldn't break open the farm for an expensive rental. But, on the other hand, I'm not going to give up on a team with a legit shot at the postseason just because they're imperfect. Lots of teams are imperfect and go deep into the postseason.

 

And none of this brings up the long-term PR hit you'd see from trading Santana and/or Dozier (though I'm more open to trading Dozier if it helps the 2017 squad). Baseball attendance lags by nearly a season. The Twins would be leaving literally millions of dollars on the table for 2018 by punting on the season and closing the year with a 78 win season versus an 85 win season and postseason contention.

[drjim]

It would be fascinating to see the sh*tstorm that would erupt if the Twins did trade Santana.

 

And the return isn't going to be *that* great either way.

[Mike Sixel]

He's too good to trade, but the return would not be good....

 

Either try to win, or trade veterans. This half way stuff does not work. They are one of the worst pitching staff in baseball. This is another smoke and mirrors season. As pointed out, the Yankees were smart enough to trade off players last year.

 

As for why someone would trade for him if he might tail off, the assumption would be they are playing for this year.

[bird]

 

So, he is just going to defy aging?

Not trading him until he has no value, while the team isn't in the playoffs, is how teams extend rebuilding longer.

 

This can only be a productive discussion when we put a presumed value on him, and then put an expected value on the return . Will he be valued in the marketplace as an ace? If so, does that get you a Top 25 pitching prospect, another top 100 prospect, and a Benninghoff type lottery ticket?

 

Because if all he nets you are a couple of Felix Jorge and Luis Arraez types, keeping him makes sense, even if he declines as he ages, does it not? Those types of prospects are a dime a dozen.

[Mike Sixel]

Of course the return matters.

[Hosken Bombo Disco]

I am trying to imagine how that "give up on winning" locker room speech would go. Or the "Erv, you're traded -- no not yet, but keep your bags packed. Oh and good game last night."

 

I don't imagine the players would appreciate either message.

[Willihammer]

The return is all that matters. The team isn't going deep into the postseason. They're 8-13 against winning teams, outscored 111-149. They don't have the pitching to take on good teams in the postseason.

 

If we're all happy with another first round exit, then they should do nothing.

 

If not, then let the market decide whether to trade Ervin. If it turns out nobody wants to pony up for arguably the best starting pitcher in baseball, then the Twins should just turn around and becomes buyers because they need 1-2 more arms at least to have a shot in the postseason.

[Willihammer]

I am trying to imagine how that "give up on winning" locker room speech would go. Or the "Erv, you're traded -- no not yet, but keep your bags packed. Oh and good game last night."

 

I don't imagine the players would appreciate either message.

Yeah, its a fun conversation but totally moot. There is zero chance of Santana being traded. When the Twins have a veteran pitcher performing like this they're going to hold on with both hands hoping his magic sauce rubs off on the kids.

[bird]

 

It would be fascinating to see the sh*tstorm that would erupt if the Twins did trade Santana.

And the return isn't going to be *that* great either way.

 

 

Yeah, I think dreams of getting a couple of pitching prospects that are projected to ultimately have better careers than Santana, which has been suggested here, indicates a need to clarify just exactly what people think Santana brings back in the way of a return.

[drjim]

I also don't get the comparisons betweem the Yankees last year and the Twins this year like it is meaningful to what trades the Twins should consider. The franchises were/are in such different places.

[KirbyDome89]

 

Yeah, I think dreams of getting a couple of pitching prospects that are projected to ultimately have better careers than Santana, which has been suggested here, indicates a need to clarify just exactly what people think Santana brings back in the way of a return.

Eduardo Nunez brought back Mejia. 

 

Ervin bringing in a couple of prospects who have a legitimate chance to post a career ERA+ of 103 isn't inconceivable. 

[70charger]

Yeah, its a fun conversation but totally moot. There is zero chance of Santana being traded. When the Twins have a veteran pitcher performing like this they're going to hold on with both hands hoping his magic sauce rubs off on the kids.

Phrasing!

[drjim]

Eduardo Nunez brought back Mejia.

 

Ervin bringing in a couple of prospects who have a legitimate chance to post a career ERA+ of 103 isn't inconceivable.

That may be true on a vacuum, bit much harder to execute when dealing with actual teams and the prospects they literally have.

 

In the very unlikely scenario they trade Santana, they would have to get at least pitcher who has already debuted or is on track to debut and be impact within a calendar year. Very few competitive teams have that type of asset floating around. Maybe Colorado, Dodgers and Astros, and that might be a stretch.

[mlhouse]

 

The thing about luck is that there is no inevitable "counter-luck" to balance the season. The Twins have been moderately lucky, yes, but their BaseRuns record is 28-29 so it's not an extreme shift in either direction (and BaseRuns is a better metric than pythag, as it tries to measure a lot more than just pure run output).

 

The Twins could play .500 ball the rest of the season (which is close to their BaseRuns output thus far) and challenge for the division and wild card deep into the season. One six week long hot streak from Brian Dozier and they can be quite a bit better than that, either winning the division or a wild card appearance.

 

The Twins are a flawed team, yes. That's why I wouldn't break open the farm for an expensive rental. But, on the other hand, I'm not going to give up on a team with a legit shot at the postseason just because they're imperfect. Lots of teams are imperfect and go deep into the postseason.

 

And none of this brings up the long-term PR hit you'd see from trading Santana and/or Dozier (though I'm more open to trading Dozier if it helps the 2017 squad). Baseball attendance lags by nearly a season. The Twins would be leaving literally millions of dollars on the table for 2018 by punting on the season and closing the year with a 78 win season versus an 85 win season and postseason contention.

 

 

I only trade Santana if the deal is right, and the same for Dozier.  And the same for the other veterans.  At teh same time, I don't care about record or postseason.  If the deal is available, we should do it and we need to continue to get our prospects up into the rotation/bullpen.  The timing of this is now.  Waiting only pushes the major league intiation of the critical pitchers for this staff down the road when our positional players will finally, finally, finally be fully ready to play.

[jokin]

 

For me it comes down to 2 questions. 

 

Do I see Ervin continuing to pitch like this at age 35 and 36?

No

 

Do I think the Twins can put together an above average rotation via FA and in house prospects?

Not particularly. 

 

If they had even average pitching my feelings might be different but I think it would be a mistake not to trade Ervin if they're able to pick up a couple cost controlled arms that have the chance to be at least what Santana has been career wise. I get that everybody is excited they're not 15+ games under .500 right now but I would gladly sacrifice what was already pegged as another rebuilding year if it means the difference between acquiring the pieces necessary to field a truly competitive rotation vs hoping to avoid implosion and rolling the dice on a one game wild card. 

 

Yeah... let's get 2 MORE cost-controlled Hector Santiagos....? Or one Santiago and one SP prospect that some team considers expendable. Teams just don't throw away Johan Santana-types anymore.

 

 

If they trade Santana while in contention they deserve an empty TF. And then we can hear more about revenue. About how the power arms are just two years away. And start the death watch countdown for Falvine.

Lather, rinse, repeat.

 

Hard to believe there are Twins fans pleased enough with the previous 6 years of futility to actually looking forward to intentionally tanking 2017- and in the process of said trade- to continue "building for the future"- likely guaranteeing a continuation of said futility out to maybe 2019 or 20, or maybe even, "building for the future" that never comes.

 

Fal-vine spent their first big $$$s and brought in Jason Castro- ostensibly to win in the three-year window of his contract. Turns out the window has opened a little earlier than most anyone expected. Why would anyone want to turn the current possible scenario- ala Twins 1987- into hopeful SP prospects painfully coming of age- or not... and then the worst-case scenario, possibly 3 more years of extending the Chief's windows of sucking.

Edited June 10, 2017 by jokin

[kab21]

The Yankees as part of this discussion is a tired comparison and essentially meaningless. The Yankees have winning seasons almost every year and have a sold out stadium regardless. The Yankees also had 3+ elite rentals last trade deadline and brought back elite prospects. They also had replacements at some of the positions they traded.

 

The Twins have zero rentals and negative depth at starting pitching. Trade Dozier for pitching (young MLB or prospects) if there is a deal since there is depth but don't knock a team down that is trying to turn the corner. 

Edited June 10, 2017 by kab21

[KirbyDome89]

 

Yeah... let's get 2 MORE cost-controlled Hector Santiagos....? Or one Santiago and one SP prospect that some team considers expendable. Teams just don't throw away Johan Santana-types anymore.

 

 

 

Hard to believe there are Twins fans pleased enough with the previous 6 years of futility to actually looking forward to intentionally tanking 2017- and in the process of said trade- to continue "building for the future"- likely guaranteeing a continuation of said futility out to maybe 2019 or 20, or maybe even, "building for the future" that never comes.

 

Fal-vine spent their first big $$$s and brought in Jason Castro- ostensibly to win in the three-year window of his contract. Turns out the window has opened a little earlier than most anyone expected. Why would anyone want to turn the current possible scenario- ala Twins 1987- into hopeful SP prospects painfully coming of age- or not... and then the worst-case scenario, possibly 3 more years of extending the Chief's windows of sucking.

Yes, any pitcher acquired will the current version of Santiago or worse, and trading Ervin will clearly result in another 3 years of terrible baseball....

 

You think this pitching staff as it stands has any chance to make a deep playoff run? How about next couple years? Where are you finding pitching if you're not trading for it? Barring a massive change in spending philosophy the Twins aren't signing significant FAs and the pitching they do have in the minor league system is still likely a year out at least. You're banking on Ervin sustaining a level of pitching that is ridiculously above his career average. Santiago, whom you seem to love, is going to have to turn it around, Berrios can't pitch like a 23 year old, and the same goes for Mejia avoiding succumbing to the ups and downs of a young pitcher. Oh, and how about that fifth spot in the rotation? Is Huges miraculously cured after his DL stint? Does he return to that 2014 form that some seem to believe is just within his grasp? Maybe Gibson just "figures it out," in his sixth season. 

 

Yeah, clearly myself and others who wouldn't oppose the trade are satisfied with the past six seasons. Great analysis. Part of building for the future requires a complete team, not just a core of young position players. A pitching staff this is capable of winning playoff series is a necessity. They don't have that, even with Santana. 

 

Do you honestly think the FO thought they had a three year window of contention when they signed Castro? I don't, and the subsequent moves, or lack thereof made by the FO suggest they didn't either. I've seen 87' thrown around a lot in these threads. If you want to ignore the infinitesimally small chances an event may occur and instead focus on the fact the possibility of occurrence still exists that's fine, but hopefully the FO isn't operating on that same premise. 

Edited June 11, 2017 by KirbyDome89

[KirbyDome89]

 

That may be true on a vacuum, bit much harder to execute when dealing with actual teams and the prospects they literally have.

In the very unlikely scenario they trade Santana, they would have to get at least pitcher who has already debuted or is on track to debut and be impact within a calendar year. Very few competitive teams have that type of asset floating around. Maybe Colorado, Dodgers and Astros, and that might be a stretch.

All hypothetical proposals are made in a vacuum. An example was requested and I offered a realistic return. Nobody is claiming it will be easy, but finding a trade partner can be done. 

 

I'm sure the Twins would like to obtain a near ready pitcher but it shouldn't be a deal breaker. If they're able to acquire talent they believe will bolster their rotation in the future they should pull the trigger. The point of the trade is to get the best talent possible as to bolster the rotation.

[diehardtwinsfan]

I'm sure if the Twins wanted to trade Santana that there would be a bunch of potential partners lining up.  I have no doubt they could get a good deal. That said, like others have noted, this is a position of weakness not strength.  I'd have to be pretty blown away on that deal to make it work because, yes, they are giving up on 2017.  I'm fine with that if they start tailing away, but they are still winning ballgames into mid-june...

 

Heading up to the 4th of July, they have the following:

 

4 games at home against Seattle

7 games with Cleveland (including a double header)

3 at home against the White Sox

4 games in Boston

4 games in KC (including a double header)

 

Barring rain outs, they will have 1 off day between now and July 9.

 

This should be a pretty good test as to whether or not they have staying power.

 

My other caveat is this.  If they trade ESan, they had better plan on getting some good options in FA this offseason.  Even if the draft Wright or McKay and pick up an AAA pitcher and other in AA, they are likely punting on 2018 as well if they don't get some FA help.

 

[Squirrel]

 

You think this pitching staff as it stands has any chance to make a deep playoff run?

 

 

 

With Santana and Berrios pitching games 1,2-6,7, yes, I could see a deep playoff run. And as long as there was a competent bp, maybe we could get another win in there. However, getting to the playoffs requires more than a 1-2 punch in starting pitching. But without Santana there is no hope of either. As the team stands now, we need him to get us there.

[gunnarthor]

 

All hypothetical proposals are made in a vacuum. An example was requested and I offered a realistic return. Nobody is claiming it will be easy, but finding a trade partner can be done. 

 

I'm sure the Twins would like to obtain a near ready pitcher but it shouldn't be a deal breaker. If they're able to acquire talent they believe will bolster their rotation in the future they should pull the trigger. The point of the trade is to get the best talent possible as to bolster the rotation.

I probably missed your post. What was your realistic return?

[Bill Brown69]

As a Twins fan since the late 70's I can tell you from my point of view that I would way rather have 10 straight 80+ win seasons, a chance most every year and never win the World Series than to win it (91) and then have to deal with the mid-late 90's again. I hate it when you know breaking camp that there is no way to win 80 games. The euphoria of the series win fades away pretty quickly if you spend all summer following a bad baseball team. 

 

Sure, I would listen but NO would be the answer to both Santana and Dozier. Right now they are 2 of the most popular players on the team for the average fan. I really don't think that I would want to make 70% of the average fans mad even if the return was significant for the future. 

[Vanimal46]

With Santana and Berrios pitching games 1,2-6,7, yes, I could see a deep playoff run. And as long as there was a competent bp, maybe we could get another win in there. However, getting to the playoffs requires more than a 1-2 punch in starting pitching. But without Santana there is no hope of either. As the team stands now, we need him to get us there.

Concur. And there are always unlikely playoff heroes that no one expects to do well. Like Grandpa Ross and the Cleveland C last year... A couple of little known Cleveland pitchers played way over their head.

 

Anything can happen in SSS...

[Mike Sixel]

As a Twins fan since the late 70's I can tell you from my point of view that I would way rather have 10 straight 80+ win seasons, a chance most every year and never win the World Series than to win it (91) and then have to deal with the mid-late 90's again. I hate it when you know breaking camp that there is no way to win 80 games. The euphoria of the series win fades away pretty quickly if you spend all summer following a bad baseball team.

 

Sure, I would listen but NO would be the answer to both Santana and Dozier. Right now they are 2 of the most popular players on the team for the average fan. I really don't think that I would want to make 70% of the average fans mad even if the return was significant for the future.

Fans care about winning. If they make a good trade, and the team wins, no one will care they are gone.

[USAFChief]

Fans care about winning. If they make a good trade, and the team wins, no one will care they are gone.

Fans care about many things. In any case, it's pretty difficult to tell most fans that trading away your best pitcher is about winning.

[jimbo92107]

 

The Twins are still in first place.

 

So, no, you do not trade from a position of weakness unless the return is so astounding good that you can't refuse the offer.

 

And that is so unlikely to happen that it's not worth mentioning.

^^This. If Houston's best pitcher goes down, and then they offer the Twins about half their best prospects because they think they have a shot at a ring, then you trade Santana. Otherwise, E-Zen is the team's perfect example how to pitch, for a staff that really needs a perfect example.

 

Just for the sake of Jose Berrios I would like to keep Santana around for at least this season. Seeing the way the master demonstrates ultimate cool on the mound is the best possible thing for student Berrios to see. It may be why Berrios isn't losing his own cool after something goes wrong. It may be why Berrios has slowed his fastball to a controllable 93 mph, rather than humping it up to 96 and faster. Seeing Santana so relaxed on the mound may also be helping Duffey and Rogers, maybe even others on the staff. Santana is showing them how to win with cruise control. 

 

Best example may be the final pitch of Santana's latest shutout. After showing that he still had 94, he finished off the last batter with... a high change-up that just barely dropped into the top of the strike zone. The cajones, gentlemen. Every pitcher on the field saw that, and realized what cool it takes to throw a pitch like that to get a standing K on the last out. Pitch 91, a high change-up for strike three. Berrios saw that, and it became part of his developing psyche as a pitcher. Berrios is now starting to realize that the change-up is a real weapon. 

Edited June 11, 2017 by jimbo92107