Article: Ervin Santana: To Trade Or Not To Trade?

[Badsmerf]

5 pages in one day? This is why I rarely post in the baseball section anymore. Ain't nobody got time to read that! (Still usually read the articles though

[D.C Twins]

Trade for even an above average return…. Realistically the real WS window cracks (if it opens) in 2 years at which point he’ll be gone anyway. I will trade a season of getting pounded in the 1st round of the playoffs by Houston for some above average prospects in return.

[Brandon Warne]

 

I maintain that any team in contention should not be sellers.  Once you make the playoffs, anything can happen.  The hot team wins...not necessarily the best team.  The Astros should win the WS this year...but one stumble and they are on the couch with the rest of us.  What was the Twins record in 1987?  At 85-77 we were considered the worst team in the playoffs.

 

That team had two Ervin Santanas and at least one less "round" to contend with. 

[beckmt]

 

That team had two Ervin Santanas and at least one less "round" to contend with. 

Team had one ace(Frankie) and one Ervin(Bert), and a decent bullpen. Things have changed, starters do not go 7 that often.  Bullpen as a result has to be deeper.  Plus they only had one team to beat to make the series.  Teams have to be deeper now. 

[Brandon Warne]

 

Team had one ace(Frankie) and one Ervin(Bert), and a decent bullpen. Things have changed, starters do not go 7 that often.  Bullpen as a result has to be deeper.  Plus they only had one team to beat to make the series.  Teams have to be deeper now. 

 

That bullpen wasn't very good, either. Pitching staff had -- OTOH -- a 4.63 ERA, and the bullpen's was 5.11. Only one team was worse!

[kab21]

 

Just to play devil's advocate; do you think there are cubs fans who are still bemoaning trading Jeff Samardzija and Jason Hammel for Addison Russell and others?

 

I agree that the Twins shouldn't trade him just to trade him. But if you can make your team better in the long run, you almost have to trade veterans for prospects, right?

The Cubs went 73-89 that season and were terrible at the trade deadline. Few fans in that situation get angry about trading veterans for great prospects. Nearly everyone on here would be in favor of trading Santana in that situation.

The problem is that the Twins are still contending for a playoff spot (and leading the division). You don't subtract the teams biggest need in that scenario for an alright prospect. Getting blown away by an offer is different but I think other teams know the same thing that this board does about Ervin. I would be surprised if any GM didn't know that Ervin was 34 and could decline at any moment. We aren't the only ones with this information.

 

I am all for trading him for top prospects though if it is out there.

[Steve Lein]

 

So, your strategy is get to the playoffs and hope whatever team has an aging veteran playing poor defense and making base running mistakes and then further hope that maybe a future opponent loses it's top two offensive weapons?

 

That's a lot of words to put in my mouth, but my answer would be an unequivocal no... My strategy is I don't think this team is worthy of being (big) buyers this year, but I also wouldn't be sellers if they're still in contention. Let if fall where it may if that is case as the summer rolls on and there are some minor moves that make sense in those terms.

Edited June 8, 2017 by Steve Lein

[Mike Sixel]

I don't see how trading Santana will help us. We need pitching for this year, 2018 and 2019. Santana gives us that. If we trade him, we need even more pitching for those years. So, arguably, we'd want pitching back. But if a team has young pitching to spare, then they wouldn't need Santana. I don't think trading Santana is going to get us top pitching back. Trading one of Dozier/Polanco/Gordon might.

So, he is just going to defy aging?

 

Not trading him until he has no value, while the team isn't in the playoffs, is how teams extend rebuilding longer.

[nicksaviking]

 

 

 

If FalVine were to purposely pull the rug out from under a contending team because they think they know better... I will dedicate my life to raising billions of dollars as quickly as possible just so I can buy the Twins and fire them myself. 

 

I for one am in favor of you buying the Twins regardless of what the front office does.

 

You'll sign Machado and Harper right?

[DocBauer]

Only way I think a realistic trade, i.e. one that actually brings in a top-almost ready or ready arm, is if one of the top contending teams has a major injury and would be willing to part with a top young arm and a secondary offering to help them maximize their window. Otherwise, the Twins acquire a couple solid players a couple years away and have let go their best pitcher for a team in need of pitching.

 

The Twins have real money to spend next off season in a quality FA SP. Doesn't have to be a groundbreaking $30M deal for a Strasburger. They are under the ML average for payroll, ,less than last season's payroll, and have a good deal of money coming off, or available to be let loose, after this season.

 

What if the still very good and cost controlled quasi-#1/#2 Santana slips to a solid #3 next year in his last contractual season? You've still gained another quality arm to go with Berrios, Santana and probably Mejia. Between Hughes, (still under contract), arriving prospects, a possible shift of Duffey, and an inexpensive 1 year deal or two for a bounce back guy or two, you have options for that 5th starter spot.

[mlhouse]

This team should be focused on the out years, not trying to contend for a worthless division title just because the division is so weak.  

 

While that comment might suggest I favor trading a 34 year old pitcher, I think any trade of Santana is deal specific, and any trade needs to bring back a solid prospect that is relatively major league ready.  One reason I say this is that I think Ervin is the type of pitcher that even at 34 years of age probably has two solid years left, which he is under contract for.  So, if the team puts it together 2 years from now and becomes a true contender he could potentially be a part of that.

 

Regardless, I think the Twins need to get Gonsalves up as soon as possible and run with a rotation of Berrios, Meija, Gonsalves, Santana if not traded, and whatever waiver wire pickup they insist upon signing.

 

I also think the time has come to bring up Hildenberger, Busenitz, and John Curtiss for the bullpen.

 

Throw them into the fire.  The time has come.

[Riverbrian]

 

I for one am in favor of you buying the Twins regardless of what the front office does.

 

You'll sign Machado and Harper right?

 

Oh Yeah.. No doubt

 

Plus... Kershaw, Darvish and Paxton

 

 

[gunnarthor]

 

So, he is just going to defy aging?

Not trading him until he has no value, while the team isn't in the playoffs, is how teams extend rebuilding longer.

If we think he's going to turn into a pumpkin, why would a team give up anything of value for him?  

 

Our offense is pretty well here. We're not waiting on some minor league guys. Pitching is a problem. I don't see how getting rid of a solid, cost-controlled, relatively cheap starter for 2017, 2018, 2019 helps us.  Sure, if we get an insane deal, make the trade. The Twins should certainly listen. But a team that needs Santana probably doesn't have the pitching to send back to us, unless it's pitching that won't arrive until 2019. It's like not trading Dozier - if you don't get a deal you like, don't make the trade just to make a trade.

[DocBauer]

If we think he's going to turn into a pumpkin, why would a team give up anything of value for him?  

 

Our offense is pretty well here. We're not waiting on some minor league guys. Pitching is a problem. I don't see how getting rid of a solid, cost-controlled, relatively cheap starter for 2017, 2018, 2019 helps us.  Sure, if we get an insane deal, make the trade. The Twins should certainly listen. But a team that needs Santana probably doesn't have the pitching to send back to us, unless it's pitching that won't arrive until 2019. It's like not trading Dozier - if you don't get a deal you like, don't make the trade just to make a trade.

Exactly.

 

This team needs a FA SP in the off season. They have the resources to do so, and the appeal of a beautiful ballpark and an exciting array of young talent to be enticing. And the FA route keeps prospects in the system. Prospects to promote, trade later, or allow others to be replaced and traded. Said FA, Santana, Berrios and Mejia offer, potentially, a pretty solid group to work with. A flier on someone, Hughes, Mayes, Slegers, Gonsalves could all be in the mix for the 5th spot.

 

Of course, the pen needs help as well. But better health for prospects and one quality FA reliever would go a long, long way. But this article is about Santana and the rotation.

[diehardtwinsfan]

 

Exactly.

This team needs a FA SP in the off season. They have the resources to do so, and the appeal of a beautiful ballpark and an exciting array of young talent to be enticing. And the FA route keeps prospects in the system. Prospects to promote, trade later, or allow others to be replaced and traded. Said FA, Santana, Berrios and Mejia offer, potentially, a pretty solid group to work with. A flier on someone, Hughes, Mayes, Slegers, Gonsalves could all be in the mix for the 5th spot.

Of course, the pen needs help as well. But better health for prospects and one quality FA reliever would go a long, long way. But this article is about Santana and the rotation.

 

Pretty much this... we have to spend some money this offseason.  Even if they trade Dozier for pitching and Santana for more pitching in the high minors, you still have the problem of needing pitching right now with a hitting core that is here right now.  I'd be fine with FA, Berrios, Mejia, May in 2018 with the 5th spot being a rotation of Gonsalves, Romero, and a couple of acquisitions... at least there's some depth there and promise. 

[Mike Sixel]

Have you looked at the free agent class?

[Vanimal46]

 

Have you looked at the free agent class?

 

For those that haven't, it's..... not great. 

 

Arrieta, Darvish, Cueto (if he opts out) and that's about it. 

[diehardtwinsfan]

Aren't strassburg and Kershaw FAs this offseason too?  I seem to remember there being a number of top shelf pitchers hitting FA this season, and I think the Twins would be wise to target that if they do.

[yarnivek1972]

For those that haven't, it's..... not great.

 

Arrieta, Darvish, Cueto (if he opts out) and that's about it.

And only them if they don't get extended before season's end. The good ones usually do.

[USAFChief]

 

For those that haven't, it's..... not great. 

 

Arrieta, Darvish, Cueto (if he opts out) and that's about it. 

Just another reason why "don't sign big time free agents until you're already good" is folly.

 

Sign em when you can.  They might not be there later.

[Major League Ready]

 

If you trade your best player when you're in first place, what does that tell your other players?? And what does it tell your fans, especially the ones that you're trying to get back to Target Field, so they'll buy more $8 beers and $10 brats??

 

 

It tells them that the FO is not living in a fantasy world and understands this is not a contender and that you are trying to build a contender.  It's says this front office is not going to settle for a pretender because it will put a reasonable number of butts in seats.

 

It tells them you are willing to give up a couple wins this year and next to build a team that can contend for the next decade.  It tells them that you realize until this young core gets some experience they are not going to be real contenders (see KC).  It tells them that the FO realizes they need to acquire more top of the rotation talent if this team is going to be a true contender.

Man, I hope someone wants Santana bad enough to trade a couple of good SP prospects for him.

Edited June 10, 2017 by Major Leauge Ready

[Monkeypaws]

 

So, he is just going to defy aging?

Not trading him until he has no value, while the team isn't in the playoffs, is how teams extend rebuilding longer.

Mike, I couldn't disagree more. 

 

Rebuilding, sellinig high, that is the philosophy of a losing team.

 

Winnng teams keep their best players, then eat costs if a player goes south before the contract is over, or they let em go via FA.

 

Santana is exceeding the value of his contract - as is Sano, even Dozier.

 

Trading Santana = another losing season. Why even bother signing the guy if it just to flip him for more porspects?

 

I thought Mike Wanted Wins

Edited June 10, 2017 by Monkeypaws

[KirbyDome89]

 

Trading Santana = another losing season. Why even bother signing the guy if it just to flip him for more porspects?

How else are they going to put together a rotation? 

 

Flipping a vet at peak value for a prospect(s) that can contribute for 5+ years is how teams sustain windows of contention. 

[USAFChief]

 

How else are they going to put together a rotation? 

 

Flipping a vet at peak value for a prospect(s) that can contribute for 5+ years is how teams sustain windows of contention. 

Sometimes.

 

On the other hand, sometimes trading what's working for what you hope might someday work is how teams sustain windows of sucking.

[jokin]

 

Sometimes.

 

On the other hand, sometimes trading what's working for what you hope might someday work is how teams sustain windows of sucking.

 

Heh. "Windows of sucking." Mind if he steal that one some day?

[jokin]

 

 

Mike, I couldn't disagree more. 

 

Rebuilding, sellinig high, that is the philosophy of a losing team.

 

Winnng teams keep their best players, then eat costs if a player goes south before the contract is over, or they let em go via FA.

 

Santana is exceeding the value of his contract - as is Sano, even Dozier.

 

Trading Santana = another losing season. Why even bother signing the guy if it just to flip him for more porspects?

 

I thought Mike Wanted Wins

 

Mike apparently now wants Sixel, instead. 

 

I get the part about "trading high", but the Sox and Royals are dead meat, the Tigers haven't shown much of anything indicating they're ready to get off the mat. And the Indians have their own set of issues. The Twins have a veteran guy who is truly "showing the way" for a guy like Berrios or Mejia, and hopefully eventually. for Gonsalves, Romero and Jorge.

 

if the Twins are still leading the Central or in the hunt as we head towards August 1, the Twins need to be buyers, not sellers. Not the year to tank it on purpose when you have both a potential Cy Young and MVP winner (Sano) on the roster.

 

OTOH... If the Twins are down by 5 games or so and fading after the ASB, you gotta listen to any offer that blows you away.

Edited June 10, 2017 by jokin

[howieramone2]

 

This team should be focused on the out years, not trying to contend for a worthless division title just because the division is so weak.  

 

While that comment might suggest I favor trading a 34 year old pitcher, I think any trade of Santana is deal specific, and any trade needs to bring back a solid prospect that is relatively major league ready.  One reason I say this is that I think Ervin is the type of pitcher that even at 34 years of age probably has two solid years left, which he is under contract for.  So, if the team puts it together 2 years from now and becomes a true contender he could potentially be a part of that.

 

Regardless, I think the Twins need to get Gonsalves up as soon as possible and run with a rotation of Berrios, Meija, Gonsalves, Santana if not traded, and whatever waiver wire pickup they insist upon signing.

 

I also think the time has come to bring up Hildenberger, Busenitz, and John Curtiss for the bullpen.

 

Throw them into the fire.  The time has come.

31-26, first place. Plenty of time for the shiny new things if and when the season goes south.

[Major League Ready]

 

Mike, I couldn't disagree more. 

 

Rebuilding, sellinig high, that is the philosophy of a losing team.

 

Winnng teams keep their best players, then eat costs if a player goes south before the contract is over, or they let em go via FA.

 

Santana is exceeding the value of his contract - as is Sano, even Dozier.

 

Trading Santana = another losing season. Why even bother signing the guy if it just to flip him for more porspects?

 

I thought Mike Wanted Wins

 

> Yankees strongly disagree with you.  (see 2016)

 

> Astro's traded every veteran player they had of value while building their system.  Seems to have worked out for them.

 

> Detroit would not agree.  They took the opportunity to get a nice return for Price

 

> Billy Bean definitely strongly disagrees.  Over the past 20 years, Oakland has the best record of any team in the bottom two-thirds of the league in terms of revenue.  Beane traded some very good players at the height of their value.

 

This team might win the division but so what.  This team is not a contender.  Weak starting SP and a very suspect bullpen.   I hope the FO does not take a short-term approach because we have sucked for so long.  No way to we compete in the playoffs this year even if we get there so keeping Santana would be all about 2018.  I would much rather have a couple of high upside prospects to add to our system.  Those kinds of moves keep you in contention for a long time.

 

This team will be a contender but not until we go through the process of bringing all of the SP prospects and BP prospects through the system.  It would also be a huge boost if we go get a FA SP in 2018 or even 2019.  If they go get a FA + Berrios + Mejia, Wright? + Gonsalves + Romero + Thorp and a couple others should produce a rotation that can contend.  With all of the power arms in the system we should be able to build one heck of a BP.  

[USAFChief]

If they trade Santana while in contention they deserve an empty TF. And then we can hear more about revenue. About how the power arms are just two years away. And start the death watch countdown for Falvine.

 

Lather, rinse, repeat.

[KirbyDome89]

 

Sometimes.

 

On the other hand, sometimes trading what's working for what you hope might someday work is how teams sustain windows of sucking.

For me it comes down to 2 questions. 

 

Do I see Ervin continuing to pitch like this at age 35 and 36?

No

 

Do I think the Twins can put together an above average rotation via FA and in house prospects?

Not particularly. 

 

If they had even average pitching my feelings might be different but I think it would be a mistake not to trade Ervin if they're able to pick up a couple cost controlled arms that have the chance to be at least what Santana has been career wise. I get that everybody is excited they're not 15+ games under .500 right now but I would gladly sacrifice what was already pegged as another rebuilding year if it means the difference between acquiring the pieces necessary to field a truly competitive rotation vs hoping to avoid implosion and rolling the dice on a one game wild card.