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Article: Ervin Santana: To Trade Or Not To Trade?


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Personally I'm in favor of improving for the future, and that includes trading the aging and over-achieving Santana. For those that aren't willing to part with Santana now because the team is currently above .500, are you then in favor of trading off major prospects to make major upgrades to the rotation and the bullpen?

 

I don't think trading Santana fixes those problems in the first place. I'm sure the Twins will listen and if the right deal comes by, great. But it probably won't.

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The Twins have a -28 run differential right now. Yes, a big part of that is from the Astros series, but even before that debactle they weren't getting better than about a +5 in run differential. They are not a legitimate threat to go deep into the playoffs by any means. And no, I don't buy into the "anything can happen" theory. That's not a way to build a team. They don't have anywhere near the pitching needed for a run this year or next year. Even the biggest of Santana supporters couldn't make any reasonable argument that he will be able to anchor a legitimate WS rotation going into the future (and I'd say he can't do it this year either). There is something to him being a good leader for the young guys as they come up, but that's no reason to keep him. If you get a legitimate prospect and a couple other ok ones you take the deal. Wins and loses are all that count, but you have to look at how the team is getting there, too. The peripheral stats on Santana and this team are not very good. They can't hang with the big boys in the playoffs yet, and sneaking in by winning a terrible division and then getting slaughtered shouldn't be the goal. Santana is pitching out of his mind, but holding on to him during a career year when the team as a whole isn't realistically ready to compete would be the old regime's way of doing things. They'd probably extend him for no reason as well. Hughes, Suzuki, Willingham, the list goes on and on. If you can't compete in the FA market (or choose not to) then you have to trade veterans at their peak value. It's not fun as fans, but it's how you have to do it. If they get a reasonable offer they have to pull the trigger.

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This should be the trade basis:

 

The Chicago Cubs have traded starting pitchers Jeff Samardzija and Jason Hammel to the Oakland Athletics for 2012 first-round pick Addison Russell, 2013 first-round pick Billy McKinney, pitcher Dan Straily and a player to be named later, the Cubs announced Saturday.

Acquiring Jeff Samardzija and Jason Hammel from the Cubs puts the A's in a strong position for the rest of this season, David Schoenfield writes.

Samardzija, 29, is 2-7 with a 2.83 ERA this season. Hammel, 31, is 7-5 with a 2.98 ERA after his latest win, earlier Friday against the Washington Nationals.

Hammel is set to become a free agent after this season, while Samardzija has one more year of arbitration before becoming a free agent.

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I don't think trading Santana fixes those problems in the first place. I'm sure the Twins will listen and if the right deal comes by, great. But it probably won't.

 

Exactly. They can even dangle him a bit to see if there are any takers. But if not, they can keep him and have a dependable arm for another year. Nothing wrong with that for a team that still needs a pitching rebuild -- having at least one dependable veteran as they turn-over nearly everyone else can't be an error.

Edited by Doomtints
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The Twins went 3-7 early in the year.

 

The 2016 Cubs went 1-9 at one point, and 2-6 in another.

 

The 1992 Twins had stretches of 2-7 (twice), 3-7, 3-6....

 

I'm hoping you follow baseball enough to know that you can't make panic moves due to a small stretch of games.

Who's talking about making panic moves? You said if the Twins CONTINUE to play well why sell anyone. I am simply pointing out that in their current stretch of games, they are not playing well.

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Personally I'm in favor of improving for the future, and that includes trading the aging and over-achieving Santana. For those that aren't willing to part with Santana now because the team is currently above .500, are you then in favor of trading off major prospects to make major upgrades to the rotation and the bullpen?

 

Because I think there is little debate that this team has no shot at doing anything meaningful without multiple big-time pitching improvements.

 

Standing pat and doing nothing or next to nothing was how this organization used to deal with this situation; I am 100% NOT OK with that. Either do something to improve for the future, or do something to improve now, don't sit on your hands and pray something beyond your control occurs to bail you out. Wishful thinking and winning sports teams only go hand-in-hand in the movies.

There's also the option of making minor moves this year (Jason Vargas for a prospect in the 10-15 range or something like that) and then adding pitchers in free agency to surround a top of the rotation pitcher in Santana for 2018. 

 

As long as the Twins are within a few games of 1st place or the wild card in late July, I would not be in favor of trading Santana.

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Personally I'm in favor of improving for the future, and that includes trading the aging and over-achieving Santana. For those that aren't willing to part with Santana now because the team is currently above .500, are you then in favor of trading off major prospects to make major upgrades to the rotation and the bullpen?

 

Because I think there is little debate that this team has no shot at doing anything meaningful without multiple big-time pitching improvements.

 

Standing pat and doing nothing or next to nothing was how this organization used to deal with this situation; I am 100% NOT OK with that. Either do something to improve for the future, or do something to improve now, don't sit on your hands and pray something beyond your control occurs to bail you out. Wishful thinking and winning sports teams only go hand-in-hand in the movies.

I would agree with this. We're in first place, and that's something. But, after getting socked by the Rockies, Astros, and pretty much every other decent team besides the Orioles, I think its clear the Twins are in another 00s situation where they're good enough to beat up on a weak division but not good enough to advance in the playoffs. We've been outscored 122 - 68 against >.500 teams.

 

That's a wide enough differential that I wouldn't fault the FO for selling Santana -if there's a strong offer out there. But if there's not, then turn around and become buyers. But doing nothing seems like the worst option.

Edited by Willihammer
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Without Santana, Santiago is the Twins  best veteran starter. We saw him last night. With Santana, Santiago is the Twins second best veteran starter. Its possible that a team could go to the playoffs with a couple rookie starters as your second and third best pitchers but very unlikely. I can't believe that the new Twins management saw this as a playoff year and hope they are not ready to change the game plan because of 50 better than expected games, Pitching is not a strength for the Twins and there have been no injuries since the season started to weaken the game one staff..

 

To me the real value of Santana this year is to take pressure off the young starters. I believe the plan at the start of the year must have included trading Santana for the right price.

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Let me know when their opponent's records for any month is over .500. Because it will be in this month and in July.

 

Why would I do that? I think the Twins will finish under .500, and yet I'm also not advocating trading off assets.

Until the Twins fall there it is an error to make big moves. We have to let things play out before we make decisions. If they surprise me and keep winning, that's great. If they fall off, sure start planning for next year. 

A couple of years ago the first-place Athletics made some panic moves like this to try to "improve" the team and ended up not even making the playoffs. The same thing happened to the Twins in 01.  

You're acting like the Twins have a chance to make the playoffs this year. I contend that they don't have a chance, so making changes is pointless. However, we have to wait for them to prove they're not good enough by failing before we start dismantling ... and even then they have to be careful about what they do.  It's not an automatic that Santana should go.

Edited by Doomtints
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If the Twins keep playing well through June, why sell anybody? This would be a TR move.

 

The TR move would be, "This signing has worked out so well, why trade him? In fact, let's talk extension!"

 

I get the feeling that Falvine know it would be wise to sell high on Santana, but maybe, as with Dozier, the asking price could be so high that no move gets made in the end. We might just get the regressed Santana for the next year and a half, until he finally leaves and the Twins collect the compensation pick.

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Why would I do that? I think the Twins will finish under .500, and yet I'm also not advocating trading off assets.

Until the Twins fall there it is an error to make big moves. We have to let things play out before we make decisions. If they surprise me and keep winning, that's great. If they fall off, sure start planning for next year. 

A couple of years ago the first-place Athletics made some panic moves like this to try to "improve" the team and ended up not even making the playoffs. The same thing happened to the Twins in 01.  

You're acting like the Twins have a chance to make the playoffs this year. I contend that they don't have a chance, so making changes is pointless. However, we have to wait for them to prove they're not good enough by failing before we start dismantling ... and even then they have to be careful about what they do.  It's not an automatic that Santana should go.

 

 

I think you are remembering the reality of 2001 incorrectly.  The Twins traded an impending free agent outfielder (which was a position of surplus) for a starting pitcher whom they controlled for the following two seasons and who was, in fact, the BEST starting pitcher on the team the following season of 2002.

 

Then they traded a borderline competent starting pitcher (who was injured btw) for instant bullpen help.  Given the way LaTroy Hawkins was floundering as a closer, it was a positive outcome.

 

btw, where in any post I have made in any thread have I given any suggestion that I believe the Twins have a chance to make the playoffs this year?

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We identified the bullpen as needing upgrades. If they went and traded for a reliver a few weeks ago we could be a game or 2 or possibly 3 better, since there were several bullpen meltdowns. So lets go get a reliver and see if we need to get another starter soon.

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You trade him, but you trade him for someone who you can plug in the rotation right away and potentially be an improvement over Santana the next couple seasons plus.  And you get another piece.

For example:  The Yankees are unexpected contenders and I think a great target team and with Tanaka faltering and Sabathia and Pineda over-performing but far from a sure thing, they'd love to have some veteran presence along with Severino; and they are the Yankees and used to those trades.  So you trade Santana for Jordan Montgomery who gets in the Twins rotation right away (and is a lefty and can compliment Berrios for a while) and grab an MLB-ready reliever who is blocked by several in the Yankees' system, like Tyler Webb, who will help the Twins right away. 

Win-win.  You can get better in 2017 and you can trade Santana.  Not mutually exclusive.

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I maintain that any team in contention should not be sellers.  Once you make the playoffs, anything can happen.  The hot team wins...not necessarily the best team.  The Astros should win the WS this year...but one stumble and they are on the couch with the rest of us.  What was the Twins record in 1987?  At 85-77 we were considered the worst team in the playoffs.

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There's also the option of making minor moves this year (Jason Vargas for a prospect in the 10-15 range or something like that) and then adding pitchers in free agency to surround a top of the rotation pitcher in Santana for 2018. 

 

As long as the Twins are within a few games of 1st place or the wild card in late July, I would not be in favor of trading Santana.

 

But why would you make minor moves? Jason Vargas isn't putting this team over the top, so why give up prospects of any kind for just him? This sounds like more half measures; like the Kevin Jepsen trade in 2015 which clearly wasn't going to be close to enough to make the team legit.

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I maintain that any team in contention should not be sellers.  Once you make the playoffs, anything can happen.  The hot team wins...not necessarily the best team.  The Astros should win the WS this year...but one stumble and they are on the couch with the rest of us.  What was the Twins record in 1987?  At 85-77 we were considered the worst team in the playoffs.

 

But they had one HOF starting pitcher and an actual ace.

 

But most importantly, it wouldn't just be the Astros and the Twins in the AL playoffs like back in 1987. The Astros could fart and falter like the Tigers did but the Twins would still need to win two series prior to even getting to the ALCS.

 

I want to win it all very soon, and I want to win it all many times. But with this roster, the odds on winning it all this year are so long; I'd rather hedge my bets and increase my chances for the next couple of years.

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He's not far from 35, has thrown a ton of sliders, is on a reasonable deal and is on an overachieving team.

 

Set your price. If it is met, move him. If it isn't, ride the deal out. It's that simple. The only real qualifier is if the Twins are 5-10 games up in July. 

 

In other words, this will not happen. 

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We identified the bullpen as needing upgrades. If they went and traded for a reliver a few weeks ago we could be a game or 2 or possibly 3 better, since there were several bullpen meltdowns. So lets go get a reliver and see if we need to get another starter soon.

 

 

In order to get, you have to be willing to give.  What are you willing to give?

 

At this point, your choices are limited to guys on teams that have already thrown in the towel.  So, you are talking about probably only Oakland in the AL.  Any team not named the Nationals in the NL East, the Padres and the Giants.  So, like 7 teams.  Most of them have relief corps that are in the bottom half of the league.  Maybe George Kontos.  Maybe Jim Johnson of the Braves.  But you'll have to pay more to get him as he's signed cheap for next year.  Probably could get Dustin McGowan cheap from Miami, but he's more long man than set up.  Reed, Salas or Blevins might be available from the Mets.  Neshek from Phillie has been discussed.  He's probably available, but why trade for Neshek when you might have the equivalent in AAA?  

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But why would you make minor moves? Jason Vargas isn't putting this team over the top, so why give up prospects of any kind for just him? This sounds like more half measures; like the Kevin Jepsen trade in 2015 which clearly wasn't going to be close to enough to make the team legit.

 

Agreed. I could be talked into 2 strategies:

1) Giving up a high(er) end prospect such as Polanco, Gordon, Gonsalves as the feature piece to acquire a #3 or higher SP that is not a rental

 

2) Putting the veterans on the block and playing the hope game with new prospects

 

Standing pat would be the worst thing to do this season. 

 

EDIT: Obviously winning is more fun, so ideally the first strategy is what I'd like to see. 

 

 

Edited by Vanimal46
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But they had one HOF starting pitcher and an actual ace.

 

But most importantly, it wouldn't just be the Astros and the Twins in the AL playoffs like back in 1987. The Astros could fart and falter like the Tigers did but the Twins would still need to win two series prior to even getting to the ALCS.

 

I want to win it all very soon, and I want to win it all many times. But with this roster, the odds on winning it all this year are so long; I'd rather hedge my bets and increase my chances for the next couple of years.

I get that, but I also know that it is easier to attract the pieces we need to put us over the top if we make the playoffs.  Erv is also a great mentor for the potential ace that we have in Berrios.

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I get that, but I also know that it is easier to attract the pieces we need to put us over the top if we make the playoffs.  Erv is also a great mentor for the potential ace that we have in Berrios.

With the young core that this team has, I'm not sure that a playoff berth is all that important.  If they're still relevant into August, they're basically on the verge anyway.  That's attractive to players.

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I'm with some others. This conversation is moot until the Twins are out of contention. The Houston series was thought of as a harbinger of doom for many, but that was probably just one team being significantly better than the other.

 

Just because that Astros team is the cream of the AL crop right now, doesn't mean you give up on the AL Central or Wild Card race.

 

This will be much clearer when the deadline approaches, and the standings say more about who is a contender and who is a pretender. The American League doesn't have a single team more than six games out of the Wild Card (nobody is truly "out of it" yet). The National League has nine teams more than six games out of the WC berth.

 

In my opinion, the bolded parts show what it has been like to be a Twins fan over the last 20 years. We are so beaten down that we only set our sights as high as winning one of the weakest divisions in baseball. How is the fact that the Astros are a much better team than the Twins not a harbinger of doom?  It is exactly a harbinger of doom if the goal is to win the World Series. If I'm Falvey and Levine, my goal is to be a better team than the Astros, not to sneak into a wild card spot and then hope we get lucky. And it's not just the Astros, after you beat the Astros you have to beat a team like the Cubs or Dodgers or Nationals!

 

 

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The problem with that example is the Cubs have an extra $100 MM to replace the pitchers they traded away. My timing could be off, but didn't they dive in the FA pool that winter to sign Lester, Lackey, and resign Hammel?

 

Exactly, also the Cubs were like 10 games under .500 and 10 games out of the division lead, so I guess I would be ok if Santana was traded to the Yankees for Gleyber Torres if we go 5-19 the rest of the month, fall way behind the Indians, and am guaranteed that the FO would sign a couple starters like Bumgarner and Tillman in the offseason.

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In my opinion, the bolded parts show what it has been like to be a Twins fan over the last 20 years. We are so beaten down that we only set our sights as high as winning one of the weakest divisions in baseball. How is the fact that the Astros are a much better team than the Twins not a harbinger of doom?  It is exactly a harbinger of doom if the goal is to win the World Series. If I'm Falvey and Levine, my goal is to be a better team than the Astros, not to sneak into a wild card spot and then hope we get lucky. And it's not just the Astros, after you beat the Astros you have to beat a team like the Cubs or Dodgers or Nationals!

 

We all want to win the World Series, I get that. I also agree with your assessment of being a Twins fan.

 

But you misinterpret those bolded points a little. They are not mutually exclusive. Going after the division or a wild-card is going after winning a world series. Ask the '87 Twins if they were the best team in baseball...

 

This response sounds to me, that if we're keeping everything in place, you would rather give up than try. That's where you lose me.

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Nothing wrong with that for a team that still needs a pitching rebuild 

We agree that they need pitching help, but if they're unwilling to let go of veteran players to bring that help in how exactly are they going to rebuild the staff in time to coincide with the competitive years of the young core of position players? 

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We all want to win the World Series, I get that. I also agree with your assessment of being a Twins fan.

 

But you misinterpret those bolded points a little. They are not mutually exclusive. Going after the division or a wild-card is going after winning a world series. Ask the '87 Twins if they were the best team in baseball...

 

This response sounds to me, that if we're keeping everything in place, you would rather give up than try. That's where you lose me.

So, your strategy is get to the playoffs and hope whatever team has an aging veteran playing poor defense and making base running mistakes and then further hope that maybe a future opponent loses it's top two offensive weapons?

 

The reality of the extra rounds of playoffs mean that is simply more likely that the best team in each league makes it the Fall Classic.

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I don't get why it's so unreasonable to try to improve the current roster and be buyers. It seems everyone is set on trying to make some sort of super team that's capable of going 162-0. I'm not saying to clear out the farm here but, as it stands right now, the prospects they have are not really that great. The system is about to get restocked with the draft. The number one prospect isn't even in the system yet. Probably the #4 and #8 too! 

 

There is some dead weight on the 25 man that really wouldn't take too much to improve. The lineup is doing really well and the defense has been great. I say buy and not sell. 

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In my opinion, the bolded parts show what it has been like to be a Twins fan over the last 20 years. We are so beaten down that we only set our sights as high as winning one of the weakest divisions in baseball. How is the fact that the Astros are a much better team than the Twins not a harbinger of doom?  It is exactly a harbinger of doom if the goal is to win the World Series. If I'm Falvey and Levine, my goal is to be a better team than the Astros, not to sneak into a wild card spot and then hope we get lucky. And it's not just the Astros, after you beat the Astros you have to beat a team like the Cubs or Dodgers or Nationals!

 

So it's already been decided? Nothing could ever happen to the Astros to change their fate?  :)

 

Once you make the playoffs... All you have to do is go 11-8 out of a max 19 games to win the World Series. Or 12-8 if you are a wildcard and all those career stats go out the window for a brand new small sample size. 

 

All 30 teams are capable of going 12-8 for a 20 game stretch. All 30 teams will go 12-8 or better at some point during the season. Anything can happen... anything always happens. 

 

The mighty Clayton Kershaw is 4-7 with 4.55 ERA in the playoffs... But the guy looks great on paper. I'd even say that he is the best pitcher in baseball. Roberto Perez hit 3 playoff home runs for the Indians but he doesn't look all that good on paper. Joe Panik was amazing for the Giants in the playoffs last year. Alcedis Escobar was perhaps the top KC Hitter in the 2015 playoffs. Remember David Freese... How Bout Ryan Merritt making a big start for the Indians. Delmon Young was amazing in the playoffs once.

 

Historically... When you look at every year and list them all... You will compile a healthy list of 95 wins or better teams that did not reach the World Series. 

 

The game is not played on paper... anything can happen if you make the playoffs. 

 

If FalVine were to purposely pull the rug out from under a contending team because they think they know better... I will dedicate my life to raising billions of dollars as quickly as possible just so I can buy the Twins and fire them myself.  :)

 

 

 

 

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You trade him, but you trade him for someone who you can plug in the rotation right away and potentially be an improvement over Santana the next couple seasons plus.  And you get another piece.

For example:  The Yankees are unexpected contenders and I think a great target team and with Tanaka faltering and Sabathia and Pineda over-performing but far from a sure thing, they'd love to have some veteran presence along with Severino; and they are the Yankees and used to those trades.  So you trade Santana for Jordan Montgomery who gets in the Twins rotation right away (and is a lefty and can compliment Berrios for a while) and grab an MLB-ready reliever who is blocked by several in the Yankees' system, like Tyler Webb, who will help the Twins right away. 

Win-win.  You can get better in 2017 and you can trade Santana.  Not mutually exclusive.

 

Yankees have some nice pitching prospects in AA as well.  I agree here that they would be a good fit. 

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If the Twins keep playing well through June, why sell anybody? This would be a TR move.

 

Were we watching the same org over the last 5 years?  TR wouldn't have sold in that situation.  He most likely wouldn't have bought either. 

 

If it was Smith, it wouldn't have been Hu/Tapia for Jepsen.  It would have been Sano for Jepsen. 

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