Article: Ervin Santana: To Trade Or Not To Trade?

[Cody Christie]

The calendar has flipped to June and many teams are trying to decide if they are contenders or pretenders. Minnesota is in the same situation. With the club off to a strong start to the season, Derek Falvey and Thad Levine will need to decide if the team will be buying or selling at the trade deadline.

 

One Twins player's name is already being thrown around in trade rumors. Ervin Santana has gotten off to a tremendous start to the season. At the beginning of May, I wondered if his start to the season was real or if he was a pretender. He has continued to be impressive and this could make him a hot trade target.Fanrag Sports' Jon Heyman reports "Ervin Santana will be available even if he isn't quite available yet. He even quotes one rival as saying, "You can make an offer. They're hoping to cash in on his start." Fox Sports' Ken Rosenthal said, "The ask for Santana figures to be quite high -- a stunning development for a pitcher who was suspended 80 games after testing positive for PEDs in 2015."

 

Reasons To Trade

The new regime has yet to have a signature move. There were plenty of steam regarding a Brian Dozier trade this off-season but nothing materialized. Trading Santana at the peak of his value could be a move that impacts this organization for years to come. A team trading for Santana would have to include quite the package of prospects and this could result in an overhaul of the Twins minor league system.

 

Another reason to sell high on Santana is that he isn't a typical ace. Santana's career numbers back-up his non-ace status. It's not unprecedented for a pitcher to have a great season and then regress back to their previous performance level. Boston fans have seen this with last year's Cy Young winner Rick Porcello. He put together a Cy Young winning campaign in 2016 but his 2017 season has been rough.

 

Santana's value will never be higher. If Minnesota wants to build for the future, trading Santana is the right move.

 

Reasons Not To Trade

The Twins always need pitching and it's been nice to have Santana as the anchor to the Twins rotation. Other players have filtered in and out this year but he has been the one constant. He also has a very team friendly contract. He is signed for next year at $13.5 million and there is also a $14 million team option for 2019 which would vest depending on innings pitched in 2017-18. These totals seems cheap in a baseball world where large money is tossed around

 

Santana has also been one of the best pitchers in the American League this season. He has a chance to make his second All-Star team while being near the top of the AL in WHIP, ERA, hits/9, compete games and shutouts. Minnesota could sneak into the playoffs and Santana needs to be part of this roster for that dream to become a reality.

 

As the Twins young core continues to develop, it would be nice to have a veteran pitcher at the front of the rotation. Santana can continue to provide veteran leadership while the team tries to stay in the playoff fight.

 

To trade or not to trade, that is the question. Leave a COMMENT and start the discussion.

 

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[Winston Smith]

They should be willing to trade anybody if it makes the team better long term, except Sano.

[Darius]

Do you trade an overachieving 34 year old SP with 1.5 years left on his deal if you're offered a near-ready prospect package?

 

I'd try to find a word shorter than "yes" for the purposes or brevity, scared they might change their mind before I got the full 3 letter out.

 

Obviously, you can't give him away. But I'd imagine someone would make a decent offer.

[beckmt]

I feel if you get an overpay option, you take it.  It is hard to blow off the fans by trading your best pitcher, but this season may well wind up like 2015 and passing on very good to overpay deals will not help the Twins down the road.

[Kwak]

Everybody is "for sale"--at the right price.  We need to know the offer before commenting.

[jimbo92107]

Part of the problem is identifying buyers. As Christie says, teams right now are trying to assess their own chances at making a run. We can also assume the market will be limited to American League teams, as Santana probably hasn't swung a wooden bat in years. So, who in the American league is ready to make a playoff run, but needs another excellent starter so much that they'd be willing to sell big chunks of their farm system for one?

 

I suppose the Twins would prefer to sell to the Astros, but does Houston need another starter? Who wouldn't want a pitcher with the lowest ERA since the second half of last season, and is capable of pitching complete game shutouts?

 

When the Twins played Houston in Minnesota, it was clear the home team was over-matched. Houston's lineup chewed up that bullpen and spit it out like old tobacco. The Astros have to be considered the best team in baseball right now. A team like that might be willing to cough up a couple high A prospects and maybe a top AA prospect for Santana. We could use a good hitting catcher and maybe some young flame throwers. 

[KirbyDome89]

NL teams would be trading for Ervin to help them throw the ball not hit it. Idk why any team would dismiss him as a candidate because he isn't capable of being a hitter at the major league level. Very few pitchers, if any, have that ability.  

 

 

[HitInAPinch]

I guess I don't really care if the new FO makes a "signature" move.  I'm more on the side that says:

Don't do anything that could mess up the development of the young pitchers.  If traded, who becomes the successful, veteran presence?  Gibson, Hughes?  Pulezzzz....  Would probably have to send in LaTroy Hawkins.

 

I also don't buy into the idea that the return for Ervin would be high.  I guess I'd like to hear names.  I think a AA player or 2 ready to move up would be a great get.  An AA player and a couple A-ballers could also get is done.

[Brandon]

The return would need to be big, like near Sale kind of return. I mean we are in contention still right? Santana would still be a good value for us next year too. We would definately need a starting pitcher prospect in the package.

[Cory Engelhardt]

My thought is you have to listen, regardless of record in July. If you get a good offer (let's say a pitcher who is ready to be in the rotation either this year or early 2018 and a lower level prospect with good upside) you pull the trigger.

On the other hand, if the offers are underwhelming, you move on and keep him. Like others have said, he is affordable and can be around the next two years.

Don't give him away, but if you get a good offer you take that every day of the week

[AlwaysinModeration]

Yes, I definitely am in the "trade him now" camp. A strong argument could have been made to trade him in the off-season, and he's put up a great first half to make him much more valuable.

 

Career norms: 4.02ERA, .250BAA, 1.27WHIP

2017: 2.44ERA, .156BAA, 0.93WHIP

 

Trade him now before he regresses too much. He should net at least two prospects with 6 years control. I'd target at least one starter.

 

I love the fact that the Twins are competitive this year, but trading Santana could help set the team up to be extremely competitive for a nice 5-6 year period.

[wsnydes]

The worst reason to trade Santana (or anybody) is because the FO hasn't made a signature move.  That's just making a move for the sake of making a move.  That's absurd and no way to run an organization.

 

That said, I'm thinking long term and still see this season as an evaluation year.  I'm not sold that this team will hold on to first place at the end of the season.  Looking to the future, I'd trade him.  Like Dozier, I don't want them to give him away, but I wouldn't hesitate if an offer comes that's to their liking.  

[Blackjack]

If you trade your best player when you're in first place, what does that tell your other players?? And what does it tell your fans, especially the ones that you're trying to get back to Target Field, so they'll buy more $8 beers and $10 brats??

 

Logically it makes sense to trade Santana -- the Twins don't have enough pitching to stay in first --- but emotionally I'd say the odds of Santana getting traded while they are in first place are slim and none.  Now when July 25th rolls around and they're 6 games out, its good-by Ervin time.

[Tomj14]

Would another team really trade a pitcher that is basically ready to start in the majors this year for Santana unless that pitcher has no real upside?

Would you trade Santana for Mejia while we are still in playoff contention?

Obviously you listen to everybody that has interest, but I can't see getting the prospects people are taking about. IMO

[Cory Engelhardt]

 

If you trade your best player when you're in first place, what does that tell your other players?? And what does it tell your fans, especially the ones that you're trying to get back to Target Field, so they'll buy more $8 beers and $10 brats??

 

Logically it makes sense to trade Santana -- the Twins don't have enough pitching to stay in first --- but emotionally I'd say the odds of Santana getting traded while they are in first place are slim and none.  Now when July 25th rolls around and they're 6 games out, its good-by Ervin time.

 

You say, what does it say to the fanbase to trade your best player when you are in first place?

 

The Twins aren't trading Sano. Or Buxton. Or Kepler. Or Berrios. Or probably Nick Gordon, Stephen Gonsalves, Fernando Romero. They probably aren't trading Jorge Polanco either. That is the core that is going to be built around for 2019 and beyond. For fans to not see that, it almost feels short sighted.

 

That said, if the Twins don't end up getting offers they feel are good for Santana and Dozier, move on and keep them for next year.

[Cory Engelhardt]

 

Would another team really trade a pitcher that is basically ready to start in the majors this year for Santana unless that pitcher has no real upside?

Would you trade Santana for Mejia while we are still in playoff contention?

Obviously you listen to everybody that has interest, but I can't see getting the prospects people are taking about. IMO

 

David Paulino of the Astros along with another younger player with upside from their system would make sense no? The Astros are going for win-it-all mode this year and next, and Santana certainly (for 2017 and 2018) could be argued as still better than Paulino, their 2nd best pitching prospect at this point.

 

 

[hybridbear]

I think a big part of the decision rests on if you think Santana's success is sustainable. If you believe he can continue to pitch like one of the best pitchers in the AL for the next two months then you keep him so his value keeps increasing. If the analytics says that he's pitching better than his ability then you trade him now before a couple bad starts diminish his value.

 

The old FO under Terry Ryan seemed to be terrible and buying low & selling high. I hope the new FO better understands this topic.

[nicksaviking]

You'd have to give it to the new guys if they dealt Santana this season, that would take some guts knowing the average fan.

 

I'm all for it and looking at Santana's peripheral numbers, his bubble looks ready to burst any minute now, if it already didn't last start.

[wsnydes]

 

Would another team really trade a pitcher that is basically ready to start in the majors this year for Santana unless that pitcher has no real upside?

Would you trade Santana for Mejia while we are still in playoff contention?

Obviously you listen to everybody that has interest, but I can't see getting the prospects people are taking about. IMO

If you're a playoff team needing another starting pitcher that might put you in a position to make a serious run, then yes I'd trade for Santana for a near ready pitching prospect.  I need the experience now, the prospect doesn't give that too me.  

[MangLitch]

 

You say, what does it say to the fanbase to trade your best player when you are in first place?

 

The Twins aren't trading Sano. Or Buxton. Or Kepler. Or Berrios. Or probably Nick Gordon, Stephen Gonsalves, Fernando Romero. They probably aren't trading Jorge Polanco either. That is the core that is going to be built around for 2019 and beyond. For fans to not see that, it almost feels short sighted.

 

That said, if the Twins don't end up getting offers they feel are good for Santana and Dozier, move on and keep them for next year.

 

Couldn't agree more. It is the weighted return scenario. Is Santana likely to be relevant when this team is ready to compete for a WS run, if ever? Likely not. But he is a nice piece to mentor these young starters while providing a consistency that is hard to come by when trying to groom young starters. It keeps the twins relevant but doesn't push the needle IMO. If we get a deal that is hard to pass up, dont. 

 

I think the Twins have a luxury with Santana that is as simple as trade him if the value is there. If not, keep him because he has value for us. We are no longer in the position that we need to get value for anything that is above average on our roster because we are 25 games back and miles from contention. Feels kinda nice for once. We might be able to have nice things here.

[Tomj14]

 

If you're a playoff team needing another starting pitcher that might put you in a position to make a serious run, then yes I'd trade for Santana for a near ready pitching prospect.  I need the experience now, the prospect doesn't give that too me.  

Isn't that the Twins right now? We are exactly 1/3 of the way though the season 4 games above .500 in first place and short at least 1 starting pitcher (maybe 3).

 

The Astros are 13  games up in their Division I don't think they will be giving up a top prospect at this point. (but I would really think about trading Santana for David Paulino plus.

[wsnydes]

 

Isn't that the Twins right now? We are exactly 1/3 of the way though the season 4 games above .500 in first place and short at least 1 starting pitcher (maybe 3).

 

The Astros are 13  games up in their Division I don't think they will be giving up a top prospect at this point. (but I would really think about trading Santana for David Paulino plus.

If you're insinuating that the Twins are in a position to make a deep playoff push, then we've been watching different teams.  The Astros are in that position where another front line starter with the experience of a Santana would be a valuable piece.

[Doomtints]

If the Twins keep playing well through June, why sell anybody? This would be a TR move.

[bird]

I hope it depends on two factors:

 

1) How do teams value Santana? I doubt teams assign him 1-2 value. If he's viewed as a 1-2, then game's on. Because realistically, despite the hot start, he's probably a 2-3 this year and could easily be a 2-3 at best next year.

 

2) How desperate is the buyer to give you an overpay above and beyond that 1-2 value?

 

I'm not optimistic about either of these things. My hunch is that there's going to be an imbalance at the deadline favoring buyers, not sellers, that Santana will be valued in the marketplace as a 2-3, and that teams will be covetous of the kind of prospects we'd want.  Would you trade Fernando Romero, Huascar Ynoa, and Aaron Whitfield for Santana? I think you'd have to really think Ervin puts you over the hump.

 

I hold on to him if he's valued as a 2-3, because he holds more value for the team at that price than the likely prospect package. I'm not interested in a return of Felix Jorge, Randy LeBlanc, and Zander Wiel. 

 

And I think the fans and players would quickly forgive the organization for making the deal. Apathy is running fairly high and players know Ervin is no savior.

Edited June 7, 2017 by birdwatcher

[Vanimal46]

 

My hunch is that there's going to be an imbalance at the deadline favoring buyers, not sellers, that Santana will be valued in the marketplace as a 2-3, and that teams will be covetous of the kind of prospects we'd want.  r.

 

This is going to be interesting to follow over the next 1.5 months.. Right now I agree with you that there will be more sellers than buyers. The AL West and NL East look to be locked up with no other teams threatening for the WC. The AL East and NL West appear to be the most likely source of buyers out there. 

[Tomj14]

 

If you're insinuating that the Twins are in a position to make a deep playoff push, then we've been watching different teams.  The Astros are in that position where another front line starter with the experience of a Santana would be a valuable piece.

Why can't they make a deep run? I understand they are short a starting pitcher and probably 3 relief pitchers. Besides Rosario there isn't a hitter doing worse than expected and you could say most are right on or above expected.

To make a deep run it only takes getting to the playoffs and having 3 good starters and a few shut down arms in the bullpen and a few breaks.

Why give up this year when we have been very healthy and take a chance on a year in the future that never guarantees health?

[markos]

 

Would another team really trade a pitcher that is basically ready to start in the majors this year for Santana unless that pitcher has no real upside?

Would you trade Santana for Mejia while we are still in playoff contention?

Obviously you listen to everybody that has interest, but I can't see getting the prospects people are taking about. IMO

There are prospects that are high upside and "major league ready" that still may not be much help to a team fighting for the playoffs. In the Twins system, think about a guy like Romero. He is obviously high-upside and pretty close to the majors. But at this point there are still real questions about his durabily and he is probably on an innings limit this year due to past injuries. Lots of teams have prospects in the upper minors that they are currently planning on shutting down at the end of the minor league season. Think about what the Twins did with Berrios in 2015. With the Astros as an example, I can see how they might be reluctant to count on either Paulino (just 100 innings last year) or Martes (just 125) to provide innings for them in September and October, and how they might entertain the idea of trading one of them for Santana.

[Doomtints]

 

I hope it depends on two factors:

 

1) How do teams value Santana? I doubt teams assign him 1-2 value. If he's viewed as a 1-2, then game's on. Because realistically, despite the hot start, he's probably a 2-3 this year and could easily be a 2-3 at best next year.

 

 

Any team who would trade for him would be competing this year. Barring injury, competitors will already have a 1 and a 2.

 

This doesn't mean a competitor would not target Santana as an arm who could help them, it means that teams won't be thinking of it the way you are.

Instead of overthinking it this way, look at recent history. Have pitchers with a history like Santana's been traded at the deadline? Yes. Did the other team get some juicy prospects in return for these trades? Yes. Does this mean any of this can or should happen? No.

Edited June 7, 2017 by Doomtints

[wsnydes]

 

Why can't they make a deep run? I understand they are short a starting pitcher and probably 3 relief pitchers. Besides Rosario there isn't a hitter doing worse than expected and you could say most are right on or above expected.

To make a deep run it only takes getting to the playoffs and having 3 good starters and a few shut down arms in the bullpen and a few breaks.

Why give up this year when we have been very healthy and take a chance on a year in the future that never guarantees health?

You answered your own question.  They don't have 3 good starters with Santana and they have zero shut down arms in the bullpen.  

 

In order to improve the pitching on this team, they're going to have to make trades.  They're not going to spend money to acquire it and they don't have a full rotations worth of rotation prospects in the minors that are close or at all.    

[kab21]

I still maintain that unless the Twins are REALLY blown away with an offer (top 25 and top 100 prospect) for Ervin that they won't and shouldn't trade him. This also depends on being +/- 2 games of the division at the deadline. Still a long time until then.

This team has been so bad for so long that this would be an AWFUL PR move just to pick up an average-ish prospect. It doesn't matter if you don't think the team can make a deep run in the playoffs. 

 

Trade Dozier or Escobar (a position of surplus) - okay

Trade Grossman for a position of need - okay

Trade a trivial prospect for a Santiago type - okay

Trade a SP when you don't have enough decent ones - silly

Trade good prospects for a rental - silly

Trade good prospects for a longer term contract - thinking outside of the box