Article: The Wright Fit?

[Nick Nelson]

The Minnesota Twins will select first in the MLB Draft next Monday, and right now, signs point to them choosing Vanderbilt right-hander Kyle Wright.

 

You'll be able to read an in-depth profile of Wright here from draft guru Jeremy Nygaard on Thursday, but for today let's jump forward and contemplate how the collegiate ace would fit in for a rebuilding Twins franchise.Obviously anything can change in the next week, but right now all indications point to Minnesota passing on heralded prep phenom Hunter Greene at No. 1 overall. Derek Falvey and Thad Levine have undoubtedly received countless glowing scouting reports, and seen his unique greatness on display in person, but ultimately it appears the upside/risk balance is too heavily skewed for a pick that could well define their tenure.

 

That leaves college stars Wright and Brendan McKay as the remaining members of the consensus top three. Everything I'm hearing leads me to believe the Twins are leaning away from McKay, a two-way threat with some questions on both sides.

 

Wright is who Baseball America has the Twins taking in their latest mock. Ditto Keith Law of ESPN. And our guy Jeremy. The signs are pretty clear. The Twins have been all over the 6-foot-4 righty for many months and have watched him hit his stride leading up to the draft, including a nine-strikeout performance against Clemson in the NCAA Tournament on Saturday that saw him touching 95-96 MPH as late as the sixth inning.

 

Wright is a big-time talent, and as a more defined commodity than Greene or McKay, he carries less relative risk.

 

There is also this: If the Twins feel they are currently at the front end of their rebuild coming to fruition, Wright fits rather nicely into the timeline they have going.

 

Jose Berrios has arrived, and shows no signs of wanting to go back. Adalberto Mejia is flashing very positive signs. Minnesota has the beginnings of a young stable to move forward with, but obviously they'll need plenty more.

 

The organization's top two prospects are not far away. Fernando Romero is coming on at Chattanooga following an inconsistent start. He has allowed two earned runs with a 20-to-5 K/BB ratio in 19 innings over his past three turns. Meanwhile, Stephen Gonsalves has joined him in the Lookouts rotation after shoulder issues cost him the first six weeks. He lowered his ERA to 2.45 with five shutout frames in his fourth start Monday.

 

Romero and Gonsalves both are 22. Wright, as a 21-year-old college product, would probably head straight to Single-A upon signing. If things play out the right way he could be reaching the majors very shortly after they do, if not simultaneously.

 

For some context, here's what the timeline looks like if you get it right with a collegiate ace at the No. 1 pick:

 

In June 6th, 2011, the Pirates took Gerrit Cole (UCLA) first overall. His major-league debut came two years and five days later, on June 11th, 2013. He was immediately very good.

 

On June 9th, 2009, the Nationals took Stephen Strasburg (SDSU) first overall. His major-league debut came 364 days later, on June 8th, 2010. He was immediately very good.

 

On June 7th, 2007, the Rays took David Price (Vanderbilt, just like Wright) first overall. His major-league debut came in September of 2008. He was – yep – immediately very good.

 

Now, obviously, these are lofty examples but Wright is an advanced arm with all of the attributes you're looking for. If the Twins feel he has a shot to follow that precedent and rocket to the big leagues, it would be quite favorable in the scope of their big-picture contention efforts.

 

Is he that guy? You can draw your own conclusions when Jeremy gives you the full breakdown later this week. In the meantime, check out the rest of our latest coverage previewing Minnesota's top pick next Monday:

 

Jeremy's 10 Round Twins Mock

Draft Profile: Brendan McKay, SP/1B by Cody Christie

Draft Profile: Royce Lewis, SS/OF by Nick Nelson

Draft Profile: Pavin Smith, 1B by Tom Froemming

 

Click here to view the article

[h2oface]

I fear being picked #1 by the Twins will be like being on the cover of the Madden football box. If they pick Wright, he will suck. If they pick Greene, he will. I wish they could pick one and instantly trade for the other. I am hoping now it is Greene. I saw him play in three games out here at Notre Dame High School. He is amazing. Being picked in the first round by the Twins seems like a curse ever since Mauer. We will see. I bet it is Greene.

 

[nater79a]

Yep, Berrios, Wright, Romero and Gonsalves makes for a pretty decent rotation if everything breaks right.  If not, add in Mejia, maybe a free agent (Darvish?)  and possibly a young rotation piece in a Santana deal and you have some depth to work with in case one or two of the arms come along slower than you'd like.

[Oldgoat_MN]

Nick, Jeremy, Cody, Tom.

Great articles all.

This website rocks!

[Brandon]

and Thorpe seems to be getting back on track as well.  I am also going on record as saying Sledgers is a capable back of rotation guy.

[jimbo92107]

After reading more about Wright, I'm starting to lean in that direction. He's already a fine pitcher with all the tools to become a major league starter, where Greene is completely raw and McKay looks like he'd fit better in the National League. 

 

With Wright, there would be no argument where he should play: pitcher. He's really good at pitching, everybody says so. Do the Twins need a good starting pitcher? Within a couple years?

 

YES.

[HitInAPinch]

Watched a few videos of Wright pitching.  Seems pretty smooth.  Greene seems to put a lot more effort into it.  

 

I don't think the Twins can go wrong with Wright.   heh....

[David HK]

The Wright fit?

 

Not in that uni--  sheesh....

[huhguy]

Clemson and Vanderbilt, could NOT have met in the SEC tournament, since Clemson is in the ACC

[old nurse]

Vanderbelt won the Clemson regional  of the NCAA tournament over Clemson

 

[Platoon]

While I haven't watched any of these guys, I do totally agree with the timeline theory. The teams window is just starting to open. Position wise it will be wide open next year. After that there is likely 4 years before things start happening, free agency, contract extension discussions, etc. Having these position players without pitching, is like a good NFL team missing a top flight QB. Hair pulling frustration!

[h2oface]

 

Clemson and Vanderbilt, could NOT have met in the SEC tournament, since Clemson is in the ACC

 

I am sure he meant the NCAA regional on Saturday. Clemson took them the rubber game.

[clutterheart]

I don't want him only because I don't want to be exposed to hacky wordplay headlines for the balance of his career. I get it. It's fun from time to time. But if things work out with him for the next 7-10 years Twins fans will be exposed to:

 

All the Wright Moves

Righty Wright Rights Ship

Wright Alright

And so on

 

Uhg

[Major League Ready]

 

I don't want him only because I don't want to be exposed to hacky wordplay headlines for the balance of his career. I get it. It's fun from time to time. But if things work out with him for the next 7-10 years Twins fans will be exposed to:

All the Wright Moves
Righty Wright Rights Ship
Wright Alright
And so on

Uhg

 

I would love to read those headlines because it would mean had excelled.

[tarheeltwinsfan]

 

I don't want him only because I don't want to be exposed to hacky wordplay headlines for the balance of his career. I get it. It's fun from time to time. But if things work out with him for the next 7-10 years Twins fans will be exposed to:

All the Wright Moves
Righty Wright Rights Ship
Wright Alright
And so on

Uhg

I agree. You are so wright!

[Roaddog]

Although I prefer Gore, I'm more than ok with Wright. Watched a little of his last start and I was impressed.

[jorgenswest]

It seems likely me Strasburg, Price and maybe Cole were much clearer number 1 picks. How does the scouting on Wright compare to those three? Appel, Hochevar and Burlington were also college pitchers picked first overall recently. How does Wright compare to that trio?

[gunnarthor]

 

It seems likely me Strasburg, Price and maybe Cole were much clearer number 1 picks. How does the scouting on Wright compare to those three? Appel, Hochevar and Burlington were also college pitchers picked first overall recently. How does Wright compare to that trio?

Appel was probably in the Strasburg/Price grouping. Wright is probably in the Guasman/Rodon tier, which is just a notch below. Hochevar and Burlington were, IIRC, below that.  I like Wright quite a bit and if he pitched all season like he had the last six weeks, he'd be the consensus #1 and probably in the Appel class. Frankly, he's about as safe a pick as a pitcher can be, he should be very good, perhaps great and he should fit in nicely with the core we have forming. 

[Willihammer]

 

It seems likely me Strasburg, Price and maybe Cole were much clearer number 1 picks. How does the scouting on Wright compare to those three? Appel, Hochevar and Burlington were also college pitchers picked first overall recently. How does Wright compare to that trio?

From a stats standpoint he compares less favorably to Strasburg and Price. About comparable to Cole and Appel. Better than Hochevar. I am blanking on Burlington.

[twinsfanstreif]

It seems likely me Strasburg, Price and maybe Cole were much clearer number 1 picks. How does the scouting on Wright compare to those three? Appel, Hochevar and Burlington were also college pitchers picked first overall recently. How does Wright compare to that trio?

Disclaimer, I am not a scout. But Wright is a different pitcher than all of those guys, maybe kinda like a Strasburg lite but mostly he reminds me a lot of Kevin Gausman coming out of college who's success has been pretty much right in the middle of those guys. Also I don't think Write is as polished and is not as "quick to the majors" as some around here have implied. I think Wright will have a good career barring injuries but he doesn't have as dominant of stuff as some of the other consensus #1 guys

[jorgenswest]

Appel was probably in the Strasburg/Price grouping. Wright is probably in the Guasman/Rodon tier, which is just a notch below. Hochevar and Burlington were, IIRC, below that.  I like Wright quite a bit and if he pitched all season like he had the last six weeks, he'd be the consensus #1 and probably in the Appel class. Frankly, he's about as safe a pick as a pitcher can be, he should be very good, perhaps great and he should fit in nicely with the core we have forming.

 

Thanks. Helpful.

 

Another honest question. I have not seen any of the potential selections pitch.

 

Shouldn't there be more concern about his first part of his season? At a small sample of 6 weeks, the difference is much more likely to be random variation rather than a change in skill level. Is it possible the last 6 weeks represent an outlier of his skill set? Could selecting him be like buying high in a trade?

[Willihammer]

Rodon and Gausman are about comparable too from a stats standpoint.

 

Based on that I think a range of outcomes for Wright would be, Appel/Gausman at the low end with Cole / Rodon as the ceiling.

 

Would Twins fans be  happy with that?

[twinsfanstreif]

Appel was probably in the Strasburg/Price grouping. Wright is probably in the Guasman/Rodon tier, which is just a notch below. Hochevar and Burlington were, IIRC, below that.  I like Wright quite a bit and if he pitched all season like he had the last six weeks, he'd be the consensus #1 and probably in the Appel class. Frankly, he's about as safe a pick as a pitcher can be, he should be very good, perhaps great and he should fit in nicely with the core we have forming.

 

Appel didn't have the success in college that Strasburg or Price did or even really Wright. He was mostly projection based on his stuff but he was extremely hittable in college, I was very against drafting him in 2012 because of that and I thought the Astros we're dumb to draft him in 2013. I feel like Wright is not as much of a risk as Appel but I'm still worried about injuries with him

[Steve Lein]

 

It seems likely me Strasburg, Price and maybe Cole were much clearer number 1 picks. How does the scouting on Wright compare to those three? Appel, Hochevar and Burlington were also college pitchers picked first overall recently. How does Wright compare to that trio?

 

In the first set, all those guys had multiple 60/70 pitches. They may not be as "wow" factor as them at this point, but Wright has plus stuff overall as well with his mix. He's going to throw four pitches, all with plus potential.

 

Greene has the 70 fastball, Mckay has a plus curve. They have potential (MLB) average to above average everything else between them at this point.

 

Wright is getting above average grades on all of his pitches, not just one or two. Fastball is plus velocity (mid-90's).

 

As for the second trio, and some people may scoff at this, but Wright is probably more comparable to them. The key difference though, is Wright is not Appel, Hochevar, or Burlington... He will forge his own path.

 

If you want the best graded (potential) stuff overall for the draft at this point though, it's Mackenzie Gore (or Baz).

[Vanimal46]

 

In the first set, all those guys had multiple 60/70 pitches. They may not be as "wow" factor as them at this point, but Wright has plus stuff overall as well with his mix. He's going to throw four pitches, all with plus potential.

 

Greene has the 70 fastball, Mckay has a plus curve. They have potential (MLB) average to above average everything else between them at this point.

 

Wright is getting above average grades on all of his pitches, not just one or two. Fastball is plus velocity (mid-90's).

 

As for the second trio, and some people may scoff at this, but Wright is probably more comparable to them. The key difference though, is Wright is not Appel, Hochevar, or Burlington... He will forge his own path.

 

If you want the best graded (potential) stuff overall for the draft at this point though, it's Mackenzie Gore.

 

He's really snuck up on our radar the last couple of weeks. I'm very intrigued with Gore, and hope to read an article about him on here soon! 

[JustinCB]

 

Yep, Berrios, Wright, Romero and Gonsalves makes for a pretty decent rotation if everything breaks right.  If not, add in Mejia, maybe a free agent (Darvish?)  and possibly a young rotation piece in a Santana deal and you have some depth to work with in case one or two of the arms come along slower than you'd like.

Yeah, the twins are going to sign Yu Darvish.

[Twins33]

Shouldn't there be more concern about his first part of his season? At a small sample of 6 weeks, the difference is much more likely to be random variation rather than a change in skill level. Is it possible the last 6 weeks represent an outlier of his skill set? Could selecting him be like buying high in a trade?

I'm trying to find the source, but I read recently that they found a flaw in his delivery. They fixed the flaw and the last six weeks are the "after the fix."

 

I'll post the link when I find it.

[Twins33]

Found it: http://www.baseballamerica.com/college/kyle-wright-gets-measure-redemption-beating-clemson/#vrFI202jJC1UIY0m.97

 

"While Saturday night marked redemption for last year’s regional, it also was a redemptive statement in the context of Wright’s season. The junior righthander struggled early this spring, in his draft year, and saw his stock slip as his command eluded him. He simply couldn’t put the ball where he wanted to. His stuff was the same; he was throwing just as hard, but he couldn’t hit the mitt. He knew something had to change.

 

On Monday, April 10, he found that something. At practice that day, coming off a series win at South Carolina, pitching coach Scott Brown and teammate Matt Ruppenthal picked up on an anomaly in Wright’s delivery.

 

“I was turning my hips too fast, which was leaving my arm behind,” Wright said, “I was never really on time, which kind of led to some struggles. And I just kind of slowed those down a little bit and allowed my arm to work and my body to work like it should.”

 

Wright made a slight mechanical tweak, and the adjustment paid immediate dividends. In his very next start, against Florida, Wright threw a 99-pitch three-hitter. He posted a career-high 13 strikeouts and, perhaps most importantly, walked none.

 

Wright’s stuff and his command were finally back in sync—and that’s meant bad news for teams down the stretch, as Wright carved through the back half of the SEC season."

[Will]

Recently on 92.1 The Ticket's Red Zone with Josh Bertaccini, Arkansas head baseball coach Dave Van Horn paid Wright a massive compliment: "I don't think I've ever seen a better college arm than Vanderbilt's Kyle Wright and I've been doing this for 30 years. He's tremendous."

[rghrbek]

I am fine with taking Wright.  I think it makes the most sense.  However, I would advocate, or actually plead, that MLB network, the Twin Cities media, or the media nationwide all agree to never show Wright pitching in that specific uniform again after he is drafted...awful.