I like McKay better as a hitter. And I don't want a 1st base DH type at 1. I just don't like taking a player because he might advance quickly. McCarty was taken with that mindset.

McKay and greene... Are two-way players so they have a fallback option

We can't let stats from one or a couple starts determine who should be the #1 pick. We should hardly take college stats into consideration for that matter as they likely tell us less than stats from the GCL do. The Twins will take the guy they like the best based upon all of their evaluations. I don't think that guy is McKay, and I'd be a little disappointed if he is the pick. However, he is obviously a highly talented baseball prospect and I will be excited to see whoever they pick develop.

If Greene has to go to SS because he failed as a pitcher, it's a failed pick. Is he a good to great SS prospect? Yes. But his greatness lies as a pitcher. If he fails as a pitcher, let's not fool ourselves. It's a failed pick.

A whole lot of changed opinions based on single games literally two days before the draft. That's what I'd call a "knee jerk."

 

Would you call Clayton Kershaw mediocre based on his playoff performances thus far? Just saying.

I don't put a ton of stock in performances good or bad at this point. I think the whole season is a much better indicator. But a loss of velocity is a bit concerning. I can remember we drafted Ryan Mills despite his velocity dipping. I know, let it go, but I does concern me

Year end stats for Wright:

 

16 GS, 3.40 ERA, 103.1 IP, 82 H, 3 HR, 31 BB, 121 K, 8 WP, 5 HBP, 428 BF

 

6.46 IP/S, 7.2 BB%, 28.3 K%

 

Opponents: .216/.276/.276

 

 

 

McKay:

 

16 GS, 2.34 ERA, 104.0 IP, 69 H, 5 HR, 33 BB, 140 K, 10 WP, 1 HBP, 415 BF

 

6.50 IP/S, 8.0 BB%, 33.7 K%

 

Opponents: .188/.248/.275

 

As a hitter: .343/.464/.657 (1.121), 17 HR, 13.8% K%

It's not that it is one start. I just didn't see the "dominating" type stuff that encompasses a future ace. I was quite underwhelmed. No bad day excuse is really going to change that. Berrios struggled last year but you saw the stuff. That's all

Edited June 11, 20179 yr by MangLitch

 

McKay and greene... Are two-way players so they have a fallback option

 

If we were in the NL I would care, but I don't.  If they fail as pitchers they won't be worth the #1 pick, if they don't fail as pitchers the bat will almost never matter.  Even Babe Ruth really didn't do both at the same time much.

Neither of the college arms excites me very much, so I'm hoping to be surprised tomorrow.

 

My preference:

 

Adell

Lewis

Gore

McKay

Wright

Greene

I'm pulling for Greene. Nice article in Trib today by Lavelle about Greene. 1st pick should be about upside and that's Greene. To me, it's not even close. Besides, if you look at last 5 no. 1 overall picks, who has made a major difference so far. Sure, Correa and Dansby Swanson are good players but they are not difference makers. Look at Mark Appel, traded to the Phillies and still in the Minors with I believe, Lehigh Valley in AAA. In fact, there's some talk of moving Appel to the bullpen. So to me it's upside and that's Hunter Greene. Twins should select him.

Correa isn't a difference maker?

Upside is the most important, I would agree. I'm just mot sold on Greene being that guy right now.

I am not sure who the Twins should draft. I have seen McKay and Wright pitch once each. You can't weigh the decision based on one performance but you shouldn't throw that performance out either. Wright went up against a very good college team in a big game and the results were not good. It should mean something. If the Twins were absolutely sold that Wright is the number 1, his performance yesterday probably didn't change their mind. If they had not decided, that performance had to hurt.

I'm pulling for Greene. Nice article in Trib today by Lavelle about Greene. 1st pick should be about upside and that's Greene. To me, it's not even close. Besides, if you look at last 5 no. 1 overall picks, who has made a major difference so far. Sure, Correa and Dansby Swanson are good players but they are not difference makers. Look at Mark Appel, traded to the Phillies and still in the Minors with I believe, Lehigh Valley in AAA. In fact, there's some talk of moving Appel to the bullpen. So to me it's upside and that's Hunter Greene. Twins should select him.

At 22, Carlos Correa already has a 3.5 win season and a 5 win season. Realistically, he's more than any team should expect to draft even at 1-1.

So with McKay do you let him hit on his off days? Like I've said I like his bat more than his pitching.

McKay and greene... Are two-way players so they have a fallback option

Relief pitcher is the fallback option when you draft a pitcher. If Plan A and Plan B both fail, plan C is pretty low probability for success either.

I'm pulling for Greene. Nice article in Trib today by Lavelle about Greene. 1st pick should be about upside and that's Greene. To me, it's not even close. Besides, if you look at last 5 no. 1 overall picks, who has made a major difference so far. Sure, Correa and Dansby Swanson are good players but they are not difference makers. Look at Mark Appel, traded to the Phillies and still in the Minors with I believe, Lehigh Valley in AAA. In fact, there's some talk of moving Appel to the bullpen. So to me it's upside and that's Hunter Greene. Twins should select him.

Did you really mean to say that Carlos Correa is not a difference maker?

I'd still go Wright.

 

I don't think he was especially abused yesterday, but it was certainly bad coaching to push him and send him out for the 7th to give all that up. Made his line look that much worse.

 

Neither of the college arms excites me very much, so I'm hoping to be surprised tomorrow.

My preference:

Adell
Lewis
Gore
McKay
Wright
Greene

Adell and Lewis have major swing and miss issues.

 

My preference:

Adell
Lewis
Gore
McKay
Wright
Greene

Out of curiosity, why so high on Adell?

Lewis has too many bat issues to take 1st

Out of curiosity, why so high on Adell?

The speed-power combo, the size, the youth. 25 homers in 35 games, against 10 strikeouts. Up the middle defense, 6.4 60-time, etc. That's Trout level upside if you ask me. Can't take the swing and miss concerns seriously in light of that production.

http://m.mlb.com/video/v854075983/tournament-of-stars-hr-derby-jordon-adell

I like Adell a lot too but it doesn't seem like the Twins are looking at toolsy HS prospects this year.

With all the uncertainty among the top 3 candidates to go 1:1, even among us here, why not go with the quality over quality approach? Jim Callis just did a 2007 redraft article and only half of the top ten in the redraft were even first rounders. If there is no absolute guarantee number 1:1, why not go with a guy like Gore (save $2-2.5m), or guys like Adell or Lewis? They each have tremendous upside but also can save you enough to get a guy like Carlson, Baz or another high upside prospect at 35 and another top 20-25 player at 37. If you aren't settled on the top guys go with upside at all three picks.

 

This is a tough decision, but Wright, McKay and Wright all come with their warts.

The lefty from Louisville is a horse. I take him.

 

The speed-power combo, the size, the youth. 25 homers in 35 games, against 10 strikeouts. Up the middle defense, 6.4 60-time, etc. That's Trout level upside if you ask me. Can't take the swing and miss concerns seriously in light of that production.

Except he is facing pitchers who's best fastballs are in the 75-80 mph range.

What are people's opinions of the probabilities?

 

ex., Wright 40%, McKay 20%, Greene 10%, Gore 10%, other 20%

 

Sorry if I missed this upthread

That said, I think Falvey and Co. are probably fairly certain who they are taking at this point. 

 

Like others have said, the 35 & 37 are going to be just as intriguing. Berrios was taken at 32 and you could fill an all start team with studs from the second round (Stanton, etc).

Edited June 12, 20179 yr by Hosken Bombo Disco