http://m.mlb.com/news/article/226895582/2017-mlb-draft-headlined-by-greene-mckay/

 

Callis says Greene, Wright and McKay have separated themselves with McKay a slight favorite to go to the Twins.

 

"The No. 1 pick for me is McKay, hands down, as a first baseman," a second AL scouting director said. "That bat is special. For me, it's a $200 million bat on the free-agent market. His hittability is high, the power will continue to improve and he's a really good first baseman."

 

That said, I see no way that the Twins draft Greene, or any player, and can't get them signed. Does anyone else see anything different?

 

Correct.  The huge advantage that the team that drafts first has, is to agree to a contract before the draft.

I have done some initial talking with a few teams' scouts and non-associated scouts and put out a fairly deep primer on the high school and college classes the last two weeks:

 

College: https://calltothepen.com/2017/04/22/look-college-prospects-2017-mlb-draft/ 

 

High School: https://calltothepen.com/2017/04/26/look-high-school-class-2017-mlb-draft/ 

 

That contradicts everything else I've read on multiple different sites which say that if the Twins take McKay, it would be as a pitcher.

http://m.mlb.com/news/article/226895582/2017-mlb-draft-headlined-by-greene-mckay/

 

Callis says Greene, Wright and McKay have separated themselves with McKay a slight favorite to go to the Twins.

 

"The No. 1 pick for me is McKay, hands down, as a first baseman," a second AL scouting director said. "That bat is special. For me, it's a $200 million bat on the free-agent market. His hittability is high, the power will continue to improve and he's a really good first baseman."

"Power will continue to improve" at Target Field? For a lefty? I don't buy it. There's only been one lefty for the Twins who didn't get his butt kicked by that park, and he was a historical slobber-knocker of a slugger. Not a guy who might develop power.

 

There are power lefties I'm interested in, but not at 1-1. The home park should be considered; it might be too much to overcome even for an otherwise excellent ball player. It might not, but thus far the results are far too ominous.

I will be disappointed if they don't take a pitcher. They need pitching, won't trade for it, and will never sign a huge FA.

 

By the way, MLB has their top 100 prospect list out. Sam Carlson is #15, and Mike Baumann is #99. Carlson can reach the upper nineties with his fastball and has above average secondary offerings, and since his season just started we could see a MacKenzie Gore like rise to the top of the draft.

 

Baumann played high school baseball for the Mahtomedi Zephyrs and was drafted by the Twins out of high school. There have been a lot of really good players to come out of Mahtomedi in recent years, and one of the top 2018 draft prospects pitched there as well.

I really like Carlson, got a chance to see him pitch in the  WWBA in Jupiter in October. Took a little video of him

 

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=WQwMoWURVGE

 

The home park should be considered; it might be too much to overcome even for an otherwise excellent ball player. It might not, but thus far the results are far too ominous.

Dude, the cement dried.  

Dude, the cement dried.

Years ago.

That contradicts everything else I've read on multiple different sites which say that if the Twins take McKay, it would be as a pitcher.

Agree, that's why I includee it as a contradictory opinion. Callis is somewhat plugged in, but this is based on sources outside the Twins.

I will be disappointed if they don't take a pitcher. They need pitching, won't trade for it, and will never sign a huge FA.

If they believe in the bat, I would take a bat. Much more likely to return value.

Years ago.

The concrete at TF is likely still curing.

If the Hoover Dam had not been outfitted with 600 miles of refridgerated cooling tubing, it would have taken 125 years to fully cure. Even with the cooling tubes it still took 35 years.

 

If they believe in the bat, I would take a bat. Much more likely to return value.

 

then what? Magically have SP appear? 

 

I will be disappointed if they don't take a pitcher. They need pitching, won't trade for it, and will never sign a huge FA.

I'm okay with taking at hitter at 1-1, provided they invest in high-upside pitching with later picks. I can't remember if I already posted it on this thread or not, but HS pitchers drafted with picks 30-45 have done basically just as well as HS pitchers drafted 1-15. 

We also don't know that the new FO will be 97% reliant on the draft for talent like TR was.

 

I'm okay with taking at hitter at 1-1, provided they invest in high-upside pitching with later picks. I can't remember if I already posted it on this thread or not, but HS pitchers drafted with picks 30-45 have done basically just as well as HS pitchers drafted 1-15. 

 

Honestly, there's not a hitter worth taking at 1-1.  Even McKay as a 1B isn't worth a 1-1. The best talent at the top are pitchers in my opinion and it's not close.  The question is do you take a higher floor guy like McKay/Wright or a  higher ceiling guy like Greene. 

I'm okay with taking at hitter at 1-1, provided they invest in high-upside pitching with later picks. I can't remember if I already posted it on this thread or not, but HS pitchers drafted with picks 30-45 have done basically just as well as HS pitchers drafted 1-15.

Does seem there is some potential depth for 35 and 37, both in hs arms and college guys that fell a little from preseason ranks.

 

If they like McKays bat enough then snatch two pitchers with the next two picks, that could be a very a sound strategy.

then what? Magically have SP appear?

Good point. If they don't use one specific pick on a pitcher there is no way to rebuild the pitching.

 

If they take a pitcher, I'll support it, but implying they must draft a pitcher with this pick because of past blunders (from previous front office leadership no less) is terrible process.

 

Good point. If they don't use one specific pick on a pitcher there is no way to rebuild the pitching.

If they take a pitcher, I'll support it, but implying they must draft a pitcher with this pick because of past blunders (from previous front office leadership no less) is terrible process.

Taking a pitcher since a pitcher won't magically appear is a terrible process.

Taking a hitter because they have had more success high in the draft is a terrible process.

Taking a pitcher because he stands out as the best prospect (in their scout's eyes) is great. And even better that there is need.

Missed this from last week. Comparison of Kendall vs. Haseley:

http://www.baseballamerica.com/college/strikeout-rate-presents-contrast-between-adam-haseley-jeren-kendall-mlb-draft/#e5D1Z5LccZTDvHFf.97

We don't agree, I'm cool with that.

 

Some seem to argue:

Take a hitter, they are more certain. That implies that you always take a hitter if the ranks are close. If you always take a hitter, you don't have pitchers. It's like always drafting a QB in round 1 of the NFL draft, even if you already have 7 of them on your roster. Picks need to be in context, not in isolation.

 

What I am arguing:

the top three prospects by most everyone are pitchers. Take a pitcher while you have a chance. You need 5-8 starters and 7 RPs every year. They also are unlikely, imo, to go sign a John Lester type. We have no idea if they'll trade 3 prospects for such a player, but I have my doubts, given their conversations about how they wan to build the team.

 

As for taking pitchers later, the WAR for the top 3 players picked is so much higher than even teh next group, let along players taken in the 30s or 40s, it isn't even close.

Taking a pitcher since a pitcher won't magically appear is a terrible process.

 

Taking a hitter because they have had more success high in the draft is a terrible process.

 

Taking a pitcher because he stands out as the best prospect (in their scout's eyes) is great. And even better that there is need.

I support taking a pitcher, but I don't think it's clear. I'm going off what Callis just said yesterday.

Haseley is far from dominant on the mound but does pitch decently well. 20% k-rate as a lefthanded starter. 90-91 from what I've been able to find with reports of a plus breaking pitch. Another two-way talent.

I'm still in favor of taking Wright.

 

At some point, it really doesn't matter what the player wants.  For better or worse, the american sports system is 100% draft based.  If the Twins deem him as the best player in the draft, then they should draft him.  At that point, he has two options.  Sign for 7+ mil, or not.  That's it. 

 

I get that everyone is pissed at everything the Twins do, but it certainly doesn't change the facts they do hold some of the power.  Outside of that, any of the teams drafting at the top had a pretty crappy record last year.  Do you really think The Reds or Padres have a better track record than the Twins?  They all suck.

Bingo!

 

I'd love to have a guy like Lee, but with those types who have modest velocity, the margin for error is just so small.

We've heard the "quick to the majors" a ton around here and have Gibson, Wimmers and oodles of other yet-to-debut relievers to show for it. If we want to look outside the organization, Mark Appel was perhaps the epitome of a "quick to the majors" arm. Color me skeptical that that phrase holds any kind of true value.

5 of our last 6 first rounders were high school kids. I don't recall a single word from our favorite team about "quick to the majors". That nonsense comes from the fan board. 

 

Also, I continue to hear crap about our drafting relievers high. Is there anyone on the board, able to see the big picture, critical of these picks? Hrbowski, could use your expertise here.

Writeup on HS outfielder Jordan Adell at minorleagueball:

http://www.minorleagueball.com/2017/4/28/15346772/2017-mlb-draft-jordan-adell-of-ballard-hs-louisville-kentucky

 

Wow. Adell with some really gaudy stats: http://www.maxpreps.com/athlete/jordon-adell/qyMbg9fgEeS-8KA2nzwbTA/gendersport/baseball-stats.htm

 

Pretty tantalizing power-speed combo.

Keston Hiura whom BA named "Best Pure Hitter" in their Big West Preview last February, should fall in the draft. Likely to need TJS in order to play the field. Other defensive question marks, but the bat appears to be legit as he is hitting .402/.534/.705 with a 14.8% k-rate. #26 on MLB.com's board.

 

http://www.baseballamerica.com/draft/make-way-college-bats-2017-mlb-draft/#MU3Bm11Sx4OtVm17.97

 

Burger also mentioned. He's #16 on MLB.com's board currently.

 

Honestly, there's not a hitter worth taking at 1-1.  Even McKay as a 1B isn't worth a 1-1. The best talent at the top are pitchers in my opinion and it's not close.  The question is do you take a higher floor guy like McKay/Wright or a  higher ceiling guy like Greene. 

 

I'd put it more simply. If they grab McKay 1-1, it may be time to consider firing the new brass already.