Article: The Scouting Skinny: The Multi-Pick Gambit

[Jeremy Nygaard]

If I had a dollar for every time someone suggested the Twins should manipulate their bonus pool to draft two top five talents, I’d have roughly $7,770,700, or the equivalent of what the first pick is worth. The rules have changed and, honestly, the Twins just aren’t in a position to do what the Astros have successfully done on multiple occasions. But I’m going to lay out a scenario that could result in two top 15 (or better) talents - a scenario which one scout tells me could be “realistic.”

 

First, let’s connect some dots.Derek Falvey said on Wednesday that the Twins are still considering five or six guys at #1 overall. The list likely includes Kyle Wright, Hunter Greene, Brendan McKay and Royce Lewis, who seem to be the favored candidates to go in the top four. That means options “5” and “6” are guys that are not only unlikely to go first overall, but also unlikely to be taken in the top three, if not top four. The difference between going fifth and going first is over $2 million.

 

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So let’s say that the Twins cut a deal with player “5.” They’ll draft him first overall, but sign him for “only” $6.25 million, which is between the slots of the third and fourth overall picks. As a result, they bank $1.52 million that can be spent on later picks. Then, when their #35 pick is on the clock, the Twins will essentially have $5.3 million to spend on their next two picks, #35 and #37.

 

They could also cut a deal with a lesser-viewed - think eighth-round - talent and sign him for $300,000 at pick #37. Or maybe they use more at #37 and find ways to skim from their third day picks and the $2.6 million tied to them. At any rate, they could have $5 million, or nearly the equivalent of the seventh-overall pick, for the 35th pick.

 

The problem is finding the right matches. While it might not be apparent that the new regime is higher on pitching, I think we’ll notice - maybe not this year, but eventually - a greater attraction to prep pitchers.So while we’ve heard college first baseman Pavin Smith’s name mentioned as someone with whom the Twins could cut a deal, I’m going to lean more towards prep lefty MacKenzie Gore. Gore profiles similar to Braxton Garrett, who the Twins really liked last year but was picked seventh overall, well before the Twins’ #15 pick.

 

Gore possesses a mid-90s fastball, a very good curveball and a slider and changeup that could both develop into plus pitches. He won’t tumble far - and could certainly leapfrog any of the top pitchers - but a guarantee to secure Top three money - and maybe the Twins could even pay him more - and forever be the #1 pick might be attractive to him and his reps. Gore is committed to East Carolina and is widely considered the best left-handed prep pitcher in the draft. One potential hang-up in this plan is that Gore is represented by Scott Boras.

 

As far as projecting which players will come out with super high asking prices (like many prep pitchers did last year in the weeks leading up to the draft… and they all signed), it’s still tough. But there was one nugget in Keith Law’s last mock draft that was worth some attention.

 

“There’s a sense that (Shane) Baz is either heading to school (TCU) or has a deal with someone in the sandwich/second round.”

 

Well, look at that. But before we get too excited, let’s be warned that the Twins (#1, #35, #37) aren’t the only team with the ammunition to pull this off. The Reds (#2, #32, #38), Rays (#4, #31, #40) and A’s (#6, #33, #43) all have three picks in the Top 43 selections. But none has the Twins arsenal.

 

So who is Shane Baz? He’s someone the Twins have scouted in Texas and was once reported as someone who interested them at #1 (and he still could!). Baz is arguably the most-advanced prep right-hander in the draft, beating out Hunter Greene because of his secondary pitches. Baz also brings a mid-90s fastball to the table, a heater that has touched 98 and reportedly has the highest spin-rate of any prep pitcher. (Something the new regime would know!) His repertoire also includes a cutter, slider, curveball and changeup. The changeup isn’t very good yet, but the cutter is really good and the breaking balls aren’t far behind.

 

Of course, this is just one scenario that involves MacKenzie Gore and Shane Baz. Maybe Shane Baz could go first and the Twins could strike a deal with local boy Sam Carlson (though the Reds seem to really like Carlson too). Maybe Kyle Wright can be convinced he could drop to #4 if the Twins don’t pick him and lower his demands.

 

These are all scenarios that the Twins will likely explore. And right now, the actual plan has yet to be hashed out. But when it’s time to make that pick, it’s safe to say that this year’s draft preparation will have left no stone unturned.

 

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[drjim]

Don't get cute. Pay Wright his money.

[gunnarthor]

It'll be interesting to see what happens. It's also worth pointing out that the Astros strategy isn't a complete lock. It worked well in 2012 when they got McCullers at 41 but the 2014 gamble bit them hard and in 2015 they had two top 5 picks to use but Daz Cameron might not be the player we all thought he'd be. So I don't want to see the Twins move too far off of BPA.  Gore and Baz might be worth it, but I'm not sure. I probably want Wright and see what falls to 35/37 b/c there's some deep talent in this draft.

[Mike Sixel]

Three teams picking a second time before the Twins.... Don't get cute, draft the best player.

[The Wise One]

To draft a top 15 talent with a pick in the  mid to late 30 range a talent has to fall there. That player would likely need to be a high school player. That player would also have to believe that in a couple of years they would not be a top 5 talent and be earning a lot more money. The extra money might be useful in the later rounds when drafting a high school player to pay them mid round money. There is no certainty who will be there other than at the first pick.

[Oldgoat_MN]

I prefer Wright, but I also really like MacKenzie Gore.

If somehow the Twins wind up getting Gore & Shane Baz I would be really impressed.

[markos]

 

Three teams picking a second time before the Twins.... Don't get cute, draft the best player.

Worse than that. Technically 7 teams have 2 picks before the Twins pick again at #35.
Reds: #2, #32
Rays: #4, #31
A's:  #6, #33
Brewers: #9, #34
Blue Jays: #22, #28
Rangers: #26, #29
Cubs: #27, #30

Personally, I think the Rangers and Cubs should not be underrated in this scenario. They are both very aggressive, creative organizations. If a top HS pitcher (say Baz) is dropping, I could easily see one of them picking him despite the high bonus demands. And they can still put together $4M+ for a signing bonus if they are creative with later picks and are also willing to pay the tax.

[gunnarthor]

I made mention of this briefly in a different post but the guys at minorleagueball did a four round draft. Obviously, they don't have the insight that real drafts have but they are probably slightly better informed draft junkies with focus on where their team is drafting so it's interesting, in my opinion, to see who was falling in these mock drafts. The Twins took Wright #1 and at 35 they could have taken college arms like Tanner Houck, Wil Crowe, Tillo or Clarke Schmidt (I'm not sure all would actually fall past 35 in a real draft) or HS players like Danner and Crouse. Again, I have real doubts about whether those names would actually be available at 35/37 but some would.

 

The top of this draft is about 5 deep.  And there's another tier about 10 deep.  But after that, I think between say 15-55, the order could go in multiple directions.  Like last  year when we saw Dakota Hudson fall into the 30s or the year before when Buehler fell into the 30s, some players are just going to drop as teams didn't expect them to drop and/or had other deals lined up. I'd much rather the Twins aim for Wright (or Gore if they think he's BPA) and then be prepared to punt 37 if need be to nab a falling player at 35. 

Edited June 5, 2017 by gunnarthor

[markos]

 

I made mention of this briefly in a different post but the guys at minorleagueball did a four round draft. Obviously, they don't have the insight that real drafts have but they are probably slightly better informed draft junkies with focus on where their team is drafting so it's interesting, in my opinion, to see who was falling in these mock drafts. The Twins took Wright #1 and at 35 they could have taken college arms like Tanner Houck, Wil Crowe, Tillo or Clarke Schmidt (I'm not sure all would actually fall past 35 in a real draft) or HS players like Danner and Crouse. Again, I have real doubts about whether those names would actually be available at 35/37 but some would.

 

The top of this draft is about 5 deep.  And there's another tier about 10 deep.  But after that, I think between say 15-55, the order could go in multiple directions.  Like last  year when we saw Dakota Hudson fall into the 30s or the year before when Buehler fell into the 30s, some players are just going to drop as teams didn't expect them to drop and/or had other deals lined up. I'd much rather the Twins aim for Wright (or Gore if they think he's BPA) and then be prepared to punt 37 if need be to nab a falling player at 35. 

I was thinking the exact same thing. The math still works out in the Twins favor regardless of who they pick at 1-1. No matter who the Twins select at 1-1, they will save SOME money from the first bonus pool. No player has yet signed for the full slot amount - in fact, no player has signed for more that $7M yet. The Twins have $7.7M, so I have to think they will save at least $700K, if not $1M. Further, if they are willing to pay the tax on going over by 5%, they can add another $700K of wiggle room. Pick #35 has a slot of $1.9M. So without playing ANY underslot games at 1-1, they can offer $3.5M at #35. Pick #37 has a slot of $1.8M, so if they have a cheap sign lined up there (say for $1M), then they can offer $4M+ at #35. So I think they can promise to every player in your second tier (roughly ranked #5-#15) $4M at #35. If one slides to #35, great! If not, then they can just start selecting highest upside available at every single pick. I don't know how closely anyone looked at the Padres last draft, but they spread their money around a lot, as they ended up giving out 7-figure bonuses to six picks last year despite only have 4 picks allocated that amount, In addition, they gave out two above-slot bonuses to players outside the first 10 rounds.

[beckmt]

I still say take the BPA,  but if you think the draft is that deep, then games can be played, but that also takes a club above you listening to an advisor and passing on the player you want.  The problem with high schoolers is that the difference in money where they would be taken in the 30's will not be enough for them to take the gigantic leap and pass on what is offered to hopefully become a higher pick in 1-3 years.  And 1 year only if they are willing to go to a junior college and have the issue of lesser competition. 

[tarheeltwinsfan]

Specifically how might this work with Mackenzie Gore as the Twins' first pick?

[nicksaviking]

It's interesting for sure, but I have a hard time seeing the Twins giving their two biggest bonuses to two HS pitchers.

 

Not saying I'm against it (depending on who the pitchers are) but I thought all we heard about was risk aversion.

[Oldgoat_MN]

 

I still say take the BPA,  but if you think the draft is that deep, then games can be played, but that also takes a club above you listening to an advisor and passing on the player you want.  The problem with high schoolers is that the difference in money where they would be taken in the 30's will not be enough for them to take the gigantic leap and pass on what is offered to hopefully become a higher pick in 1-3 years.  And 1 year only if they are willing to go to a junior college and have the issue of lesser competition. 

This is so very interesting.

You sit down with MacKenzie Gore and ask a hypothetical question, like, "Would you sign for $6 million?" Gore looks at his financial adviser (Scott Boras) and his adviser slides a piece of paper to Gore. Gore reads it and says, "I'll sign for slightly under slot. I want $7 million."

Asking the same question of Wright, he says, "Sure!".

Now Gore has probably hurt himself a bit, but it really hasn't hurt Boras. And I suspect that is really who Boras is most concerned about.

[nicksaviking]

 

This is so very interesting.

You sit down with MacKenzie Gore and ask a hypothetical question, like, "Would you sign for $6 million?" Gore looks at his financial adviser (Scott Boras) and his adviser slides a piece of paper to Gore. Gore reads it and says, "I'll sign for slightly under slot. I want $7 million."

Asking the same question of Wright, he says, "Sure!".

Now Gore has probably hurt himself a bit, but it really hasn't hurt Boras. And I suspect that is really who Boras is most concerned about.

 

That's the narrative we always make, and I used to be in that camp. However lately I'm not; getting as much money as the player can is obviously nearly always in the player's best interest. I don't think the "greedy agent" stereotype is any more fair for him than it is for any other agent. The players still benefit the most from diligent negotiating.

 

If Boras was hurting his clients to better himself, he wouldn't still be the pre-eminent agent and we'd be hearing horror stories from former employees and clients.

[Oldgoat_MN]

 

That's the narrative we always make, and I used to be in that camp. However lately I'm not; getting as much money as the player can is obviously nearly always in the player's best interest. I don't think the "greedy agent" stereotype is any more fair for him than it is for any other agent. The players still benefit the most from diligent negotiating.

 

If Boras was hurting his clients to better himself, he wouldn't still be the pre-eminent agent and we'd be hearing horror stories from former employees and clients.

I, too, appreciate that an agent’s job is to get the best deal for his client. Kendrys Morales, Mark Teixeira, and ARod are some of the players who had Boras as an agent and switched. Boras gambles with players’ futures. Sometimes it works. Sometimes it costs his clients a lot of money. He has enough wins to sell himself to new clients, but unless you are an elite player, a guy like Boras may not be your wisest choice.

I suppose having Mark Appel hold out for as much money as possible was wise, as he may never see the big leagues.

[Mike Sixel]

I, too, appreciate that an agent’s job is to get the best deal for his client. Kendrys Morales, Mark Teixeira, and ARod are some of the players who had Boras as an agent and switched. Boras gambles with players’ futures. Sometimes it works. Sometimes it costs his clients a lot of money. He has enough wins to sell himself to new clients, but unless you are an elite player, a guy like Boras may not be your wisest choice.

I suppose having Mark Appel hold out for as much money as possible was wise, as he may never see the big leagues.

Seriously? Being wrong sometimes makes you greedy or bad at your job? You really think his agency only represents or helps the elite?

[Oldgoat_MN]

 

Seriously? Being wrong sometimes makes you greedy or bad at your job? You really think his agency only represents or helps the elite?

I said that I think he's best suited for elite players. Gambles with elite players pay off more often.

More than one Boras client has declined a qualifying offer and waited until the following July or so to sign with a team.

That has a cost.

[Willihammer]

First, let’s connect some dots.Derek Falvey said on Wednesday that the Twins are still considering five or six guys at #1 overall. The list likely includes Kyle Wright, Hunter Greene, Brendan McKay and Royce Lewis, who seem to be the favored candidates to go in the top four. That means options “5” and “6” are guys that are not only unlikely to go first overall, but also unlikely to be taken in the top three, if not top four. The difference between going fifth and going first is over $2 million.

Jeremy, if you had to guess, what would you say the price points are for each of the players in the top tier? Feel free to guess on 5/6 as well.

Edited June 5, 2017 by Willihammer

[nicksaviking]

 

I said that I think he's best suited for elite players. Gambles with elite players pay off more often.

More than one Boras client has declined a qualifying offer and waited until the following July or so to sign with a team.

That has a cost.

 

He's not gambling though, the player is. He isn't some overlord pulling the strings on all these players, they seek him out and discuss strategy with their agent. If the player wants a less risky decision Boras isn't and can't make him roll the dice.

[Oldgoat_MN]

That's probably fair, though I would think his advice weighs heavily.

Boras has a lot of clients. Each ballplayer only has one career.

Mistakes, or 'losses', impact the player greatly.

[Mike Sixel]

 

That's probably fair, though I would think his advice weighs heavily.

Boras has a lot of clients. Each ballplayer only has one career.

Mistakes, or 'losses', impact the player greatly.

 

They do. And it is a bummer for them when he is wrong.

 

side trek: I still can't figure out why Appel can't pitch. He had it ALL in college.

[Oldgoat_MN]

 

They do. And it is a bummer for them when he is wrong.

 

side trek: I still can't figure out why Appel can't pitch. He had it ALL in college.

Mark Appel, Stanford, 2013:
106.1 IP, 130 K, 23 W, BAA .203

My father & I have talked about Appel's issues as well. Puzzling.

[gunnarthor]

 

They do. And it is a bummer for them when he is wrong.

 

side trek: I still can't figure out why Appel can't pitch. He had it ALL in college.

Some of it had to be mental. If he read any article's comment section about him he would read about what a greedy so and so he was. And then he struggled in that Astros launching pad in A+ and the Astros ML manager called him out and then he had some injuries ... just a complete snowballing.

[caninatl04]

"His repertoire also includes a cutter, slider, curveball and changeup."

 

If you have five pitches, you really have zero.

[old nurse]

Listed at 6-foot-5, 230 pounds, the Phillies 25-year-old right-hander has a matured build with a strong lower half. Appel has lots of moving parts in his delivery making it tough to repeat and throw consistent strikes. His arm works well and it’s a fringe-average three-pitch mix at best across the board (fastball, slider, changeup). Appel’s fastball was 91-94 mph and fairly straight and hittable. The lack of movement and overall command results in an average grade fastball. The slider was 81-83 with short, vertical break grading as an average grade pitch but does not project to be a legit swing-miss offering. The changeup was 83-85 and a clear third offering that was straight and fairly flat, playing more as a BP fastball. There’s not much, if any, projection left with Appel and he appears to be a solid Triple-A organizational depth arm that could make a few spot starts in case of emergency at the major league level.

 

http://www.thegoodphight.com/2017/4/25/15405352/its-time-to-make-mark-appel-the-reliever