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Article: We Can Rebuild It: Creative Bullpen Fixes


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Since they are still in first place, and the division is mediocre, I would still prioritize winning right now over trying to figure out if marginal guys currently in the minors might be able to help next year.

You are deluding yourself.  Cleveland is still the best team in the division by a long shot and just got Cory Kluber back.  It will cost you a fair amount in prospects to bring in enough help to just stay close.  You could well have more clarity in a month and a half and most likely you will have wasted time in not finding out what you have for next year.

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You are deluding yourself. Cleveland is still the best team in the division by a long shot and just got Cory Kluber back. It will cost you a fair amount in prospects to bring in enough help to just stay close. You could well have more clarity in a month and a half and most likely you will have wasted time in not finding out what you have for next year.

Whether or not I'm deluding myself, which I might be, the bigger point would be there isn't anyone in the minors right now that clearly should be up right now. Maybe Melotakis and Hildenberger if you really squint, but a handful of weeksore in the minors isn't going to make or break it. Might as well try to win.

 

I would agree Cleveland is the best team in the Central, but it's not like they're without problems, and there isn't a clear second wildcard either (assuming Houston, Yanks, Boston are looking good).

 

Things could easily change over this stretch before the break, I accept that, but let's allow it to actually happen.

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Whether or not I'm deluding myself, which I might be, the bigger point would be there isn't anyone in the minors right now that clearly should be up right now. Maybe Melotakis and Hildenberger if you really squint, but a handful of weeksore in the minors isn't going to make or break it. Might as well try to win.

I would agree Cleveland is the best team in the Central, but it's not like they're without problems, and there isn't a clear second wildcard either (assuming Houston, Yanks, Boston are looking good).

Things could easily change over this stretch before the break, I accept that, but let's allow it to actually happen.

 

I think the Twins would be upgrading the bullpen by replacing guys like Belisle and Breslow, so current and future needs are completely aligned in that area.

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I think the Twins would be upgrading the bullpen by replacing guys like Belisle and Breslow, so current and future needs are completely aligned in that area.

Good point. Just don't see a clear replacement. I would be a little hesitant to put three guys with no experience in the same pen, but if it is low leverage garbage innings, perhaps it doesn't make a difference.

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If you are in contention in July... You are in contention in July. 

 

Tearing apart a contending team should be a criminal offense. It doesn't matter what anybody's evaluation says should be happening. A team in contention is what is actually happening.

 

Sometimes things out perform the projections. If something is out performing the projection you ask...what can you do to help... Not what can you do to make it even harder. 

 

This doesn't mean trade Nick Gordon for Kevin Jepsen. It still requires common sense... but to trade Ervin Santana for a couple AA Prospects when a team needs all the pitching it can find while in contention is way too much ego out of a GM for to be comfortable with. 

 

I have no interest in a GM who says... I don't care if you are doing well... you shouldn't be doing well according to me. 

 

Let's see where we are when June comes to a close.If we are still in contention... Go find some relievers and support the squad. 

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If you are in contention in July... You are in contention in July. 

 

Tearing apart a contending team should be a criminal offense. It doesn't matter what anybody's evaluation says should be happening. A team in contention is what is actually happening.

 

Sometimes things out perform the projections. If something is out performing the projection you ask...what can you do to help... Not what can you do to make it even harder. 

 

This doesn't mean trade Nick Gordon for Kevin Jepsen. It still requires common sense... but to trade Ervin Santana for a couple AA Prospects when a team needs all the pitching it can find while in contention is way too much ego out of a GM for to be comfortable with. 

 

I have no interest in a GM who says... I don't care if you are doing well... you shouldn't be doing well according to me. 

 

Let's see where we are when June comes to a close.If we are still in contention... Go find some relievers and support the squad. 

 

We don't agree on ESan, he's in his mid 30s.....it will fall off.

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If the team can hang around, they should have a chance to add a DH bat, acceptable reliever and a backend starter for nothing they will regret in the future.

 

I would still strongly consider moving Romero to the pen, perhaps as early as July, and if Gonsalves stays healthy he could make the mlb rotation by August, and have enough innings to finish the season strong. They have a couple of pieces that could provide a boost, even without a trade. And though it won't be 3 rookies at once, I do think they'll start rotating a few of the reliever through over the next several weeks, maybe 1 or 2 of them will pop.

 

Not impossible to think Pressly might figure it out, or Hughes or Chargois can provide something back from injury.

 

Not all of this is going to work, probably not even most of it, but it is enough to think there's no need to radically change course at the moment. Worth it to see how it plays out.

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True. I just think people keep forgetting he isn't young, and it can't go forever. I'm not saying I'd deal him for anyone, and I don't think I trade him off if they are still in first, but the future goes past 2018/9....

 

It does, but there will be other free agents.

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It does, but there will be other free agents.

I think you are expecting Pohlad to spend the big bucks for pitching to put us over the top.  Would love to see that happen, more likely you are looking at fools gold. 

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Santana worked out, There is a big difference between  a number 3 starter and an ace. You are talking $50 million plus.

 

True, but the bigger issue is that very few aces even reach free agency. If they can hit on another 2-3 type that would be a great get.

 

I don't think they are going to trade Santana now for a future ace (though they'd probably get a decent package), which was what prompted my thought that keeping him and letting him walk at the end of the contract (assuming the Twins are competing), and then replacing him with another free agent isn't the worst outcome.

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True. I just think people keep forgetting he isn't young, and it can't go forever. I'm not saying I'd deal him for anyone, and I don't think I trade him off if they are still in first, but the future goes past 2018/9....

 

Or that he presently has a .143 BABIP and there is nearly a 3 run gap between his ERA and xFIP.

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Don't know how it compares, but they've had Wainwright, Garcia, Lynn, Wacha, Rosenthal all go down with serious injuries the last 3 years. Probably a couple more.

The Cardinals have been pretty successful with bringing future starters and using them in the bullpen. The injury history listed doesn't entirely correlate with that process, imo.

Wainwright broke in as a 23-year-old with two short relief outings, a total of nine batters faced. He came out the bullpen 61 times the following year, then became a  front-line starter the last 9+ seasons, with at least 198 innings pitched in seven of them. He only had 20 starts in '08 and suffered his severe injury in '15. his age 33 season. This after pitching a total of 568 combined innings the previous two years.

 

Garcia broke in at age 21, with 1 start in 10 appearances to go with 106 innings in the minors. To support your point, he only made 8 starts (9 appearances) the following season. He made 60 starts over the next two seasons and then battled injuries in each of the next three seasons. He had 30 starts last season and 10 so for this year.

 

Wacha arrived in 2013 after 15 ML starts. He made 9 regular season starts in 15 total appearances and 64.2 innings worked. He then racked up another 30.2 innings in the post-season, going 4-1 and was the MVP of the NLCS. Like Garcia, Wacha was injured the following season, with 19 total starts.30 starts in '15; 24 starts last season and 3 games in relief. ) starts this year.

 

As a 22-year-old, Rosenthal arrived in '12 after 20 minor league starts and 109 innings. He pitched 22 innings out of the pen in the regular season followed by three scoreless innings in the post-season. As a major leaguer, Rosenthal pitched exclusively out of the pen. In his 6th season, he has a 162 game average of 68 appearances, 68 innings, and 25 saves.His injury came last season, holding him to only 40 games, but he is right back to form this season.

 

Also, Carlos Martinez broke in at age 21 as a spot starter for two years after being a minor league starter. He has transitioned into an ace starter with no injury issues.

 

Alex Reyes was 4-1 last year, with a 1.57 ERA in five MLB starts and seven relief appearances at age 21 plus 65 innings pitched in Memphis.He had 73 minor league appearances, all of them starts. He's a TJ patient. He was the #2 rated prospect in the MLB.

 

Marco Gonzales was scheduled to pitch in the Futures Game in '14 at age 22  but was scratched when he was called up to fill in for an injured Jaime Garcia-. He ended the regular season with 10 games, 5 starts, 34 innings, and a 4.15 ERA. Like the others, he pitched in the postseason that year. He battled a shoulder injury the following year but did get a September call-up. He then missed last season with TJ surgery. He was the Cards 5th rated prospect.

 

Shelby Miller and Joe Kelly are the only other examples I can think of. They both were minor league starters that come up as spot starters, Shelby at age 21, Kelly at 24. And like Wacha, Martinez, and Lynn, they too went on to pitch in the post-season in the first year they were called up. Miller has gone on to average 33 starts a year. Kelly started 15 of 37 appearances in his second season, then became a full-time starter for two seasons and 42 total starts.

 

Chris Carpenter missed nearly all of his final season in '12 after leading the league in innings pitched in ´11, but he was 37 years old and had already worked back from four previous injuries in his long career. He ended up having a rib removed and returned to pitch 13,2 post-season innings, giving up 4 earned runs.

 

Conclusion: mixed bag, but a successfully mixed bag. The Cards have always managed to develop outstanding young pitchers to augment a consistently strong starting rotation. I don't think any other franchise can match them. Because they are so often in the post-season, they have an extra incentive to use their outstanding starting pitcher prospects in the bullpen to start their careers. That isn't the case in Minnesota at this time. So after throwing all these stats out, I'm not convinced one way or the other. I´m a true blue loyal Twins fan, but I take some solace in following the Cards in the NL. It´s much less painfull.

 

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True, but the bigger issue is that very few aces even reach free agency. If they can hit on another 2-3 type that would be a great get.

 

I don't think they are going to trade Santana now for a future ace (though they'd probably get a decent package), which was what prompted my thought that keeping him and letting him walk at the end of the contract (assuming the Twins are competing), and then replacing him with another free agent isn't the worst outcome.

 

True, but the bigger issue is that very few aces even reach free agency. If they can hit on another 2-3 type that would be a great get.

 

I don't think they are going to trade Santana now for a future ace (though they'd probably get a decent package), which was what prompted my thought that keeping him and letting him walk at the end of the contract (assuming the Twins are competing), and then replacing him with another free agent isn't the worst outcome.

There are number of high level FA pitchers who may choose to move after the next two seasons. I would like one under 30 whose stuff can play  even if they lose a little.  Twins should get a shot at one if they are willing to spend the money. An ace helps a lot in the playoffs.  let's move  forward.

 

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Which is why I argue to call them up earlier, as you know....

 

Sure, but the Twins don't have a prospect on the level of any of those mentioned in the Cards system, other than Romero.

 

I endorse the theoretical idea, just haven't seen actual pitchers in the system to execute the strategy with.

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Sure, but the Twins don't have a prospect on the level of any of those mentioned in the Cards system, other than Romero.

 

I endorse the theoretical idea, just haven't seen actual pitchers in the system to execute the strategy with.

 

Let's hope we do after mid-June of this year, that can be up some time next year!

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I don't like anything about this Romero suggestion.

You want to take a prospect that has a history of arm trouble and move him to the bullpen for the middle part of the season and then move him back to the rotation? This sounds like a really bad idea imo.

 

Whaddya mean? He could solidify the bullpen, like Trevor May!

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Ok, this thread is about being creative. Here's a 2009-style internet comment.

 

 

The Giants are hurting and need outfielders with power. They are unlikely to win anything this year, so they will want to gear up for next season, an even year when Bumgarner is healthy. Offer them Palka and Melotakis for Mark Melancon.

 

 

Oh yeah, and Hughes to the bullpen for sure.

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What is the prognosis for Trevor May next year? Will he be recovered, is he being looked at to take over a rotation spot?? Just curious. Also, I don't see anything wrong with snatching up Dyson or Broxton just to see what they could do??

Edited by Twodogs
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I think everybody is aware that Santana is old and at some point will fall off. That doesn't mean that you trade him when your team is above .500 and lacking anything resembling a 5th starter with additional uncertainty in the rotation. Trade a MI for prospects if you want but don't make a bad rotation worse.

With that being said if a team offered the Twins a top 25 pitching prospect and a high upside borderline top 100 pitching prospect then I probably take that deal since it is a significant overpay but I don't shop Santana since it is difficult to see his market value as a top 50 prospect for exactly the reasons that people want to trade him. Other people are aware that he is old also.

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