Article: Eight Weeks In: Twins Trends And Tidbits

[USAFChief]

Free agent relievers are a crap shoot. They obviously aren't going to get the Aroldis Chapman or Kenley Jansen or Mark Melancon types (though two of them have spent time on the DL already this year). Then there is that group of relievers each year that sign for between $2 and $6 million. Maybe 1/3 of them perform to hope... but figuring out which of them will be good or not good is impossible. As with most free agents, you're talking about 31-36 year olds, already on the downward plane of their careers... There are always a few good ones, but you never know which ones they'll be. 

 

Just my opinion... not claiming it's the right opinion. I know people can always find examples of free agents that were terrific. There are several of those. Maybe they should have brought back Anthony Swarzak this year? How would that have gone over with Twins fans this offseason? He's been remarkable for the White Sox.

 

When you're dabbling in minor league free agency, of course it's a crapshoot. And even that is giving it too much credit, what you're really hoping for is to get lucky. That one of the three AAAA guys you sign has a lucky year.

 

But to say you can't sign quality bullpen pieces isn't true. They exist, you just have to be willing to pay the cost.

 

And BTW, injury is zero reason to not sign anybody, except in the case of someone with a chronic injury. All pitchers are injury risks, including the minor league FAs you're depending on.

[Johnsonalexpaul]

meanwhile busenitz, baxendale and hildenberger all have ERAs in the 2s at AAA, yet they are not getting a chance when these guys have 8 ERAs in the MLB, those guys have. I business being in a MLB roster with an 8 ERA through 2 months, give the guys who aren't getting any younger a chance to prove what they can do at a higher level

[terrydactyls]

Here are some people in the Twins organization.

 

Chattanooga Bullpen

 

Randy Rosario, ERA 1.90. WHIP 0.93

Luke Bard, ERA 3.63. WHIP 1.43

Mason Melotakis, ERA 2.37. WHIP 0.89

John Curtiss, ERA 0.00. WHIP 1.13

 

Rochester Bullpen

Alan Busenitz, ERA 2.08. WHIP 0.78

D.J. Baxendale, ERA 3.48. WHIP 1.16

Trevor Hildenberg, ERA 2.33. WHIP 1.29

 

That's seven relief pitchers waiting for a chance in the majors. The Twins aren't going anywhere this year so let's see what these guys can do before trading away prospects. The solution may be inhouse.

 

[Dr. Evil]

Pressley is an example of why Greene's high school heater does not impress me. Heat is simply not enough.

[terrydactyls]

Geez. I formatted that comment real pretty. What happened?

[jmlease1]

Time to move on from Belisle, he's been awful. Pressly is worth giving more rope to.

 

It's a shame that the injury bug has hit in the minors; I wasn't terribly concerned about the bullpen this year, despire there being some weaknesses, because it looked like there were several guys in the minors who were ready to get a long look. But with Chargois on the DL and Burdi done for this year and who knows how long after things have thinned out. That's too bad.

 

I actually really like Kintzler as the "closer", because there really shouldn't be anything all that special about pitching the 9th with a lead and the bases empty, which is how most closers are used. Having Kintzler in that role allows potentially better arms to be pitching in higher leverage situations in the 6-8th innings.

 

Very happy to see Mauer playing so well in May. He was pretty unlucky in April and it's nice to see things turn his way. Would love for him to have a hot summer as well, with judicious rest to keep him cooking; he's a really nice player to have hitting in front of Sano.

[Seth Stohs]

 

When you're dabbling in minor league free agency, of course it's a crapshoot. And even that is giving it too much credit, what you're really hoping for is to get lucky. That one of the three AAAA guys you sign has a lucky year.

But to say you can't sign quality bullpen pieces isn't true. They exist, you just have to be willing to pay the cost.

And BTW, injury is zero reason to not sign anybody, except in the case of someone with a chronic injury. All pitchers are injury risks, including the minor league FAs you're depending on.

 

I never said that they aren't out there... just that it's not really possible to know which one(s) will be good and which one(s) will fail. 

[Teddy]

 

Here are some people in the Twins organization. Chattanooga Bullpen Randy Rosario, ERA 1.90. WHIP 0.93 Luke Bard, ERA 3.63. WHIP 1.43 Mason Melotakis, ERA 2.37. WHIP 0.89 John Curtiss, ERA 0.00. WHIP 1.13 Rochester Bullpen Alan Busenitz, ERA 2.08. WHIP 0.78 D.J. Baxendale, ERA 3.48. WHIP 1.16 Trevor Hildenberg, ERA 2.33. WHIP 1.29 That's seven relief pitchers waiting for a chance in the majors. The Twins aren't going anywhere this year so let's see what these guys can do before trading away prospects. The solution may be inhouse.

The problem is that only two of those guys are on the 40-man roster (R. Rosario and Melotakis). Somebody would need to be dropped to add one of those guys, and once they're added, taking them off the 40-man would expose them to waivers, so it's not like you can just shuttle them in and out on options.

 

If Hughes' shoulder doesn't get any better, he might be an option for the 60-day DL, which would open up a spot, and they could always dump Tepesch, Rucinski and/or Wheeler (whom I'd like to see get a legit shot before he gets sent back down) to make room, and in that event, my first two choices from AA to add to the 40-man would probably be Curtis and Bard. I don't trust Busenitz (it takes more than flames at the top level) and Hildenberger needs more seasoning, and will likely be nothing more than that sidearm guy out of the pen every team seems to have (see Bradford, Chad).

[Mike Sixel]

 

The problem is that only two of those guys are on the 40-man roster (R. Rosario and Melotakis). Somebody would need to be dropped to add one of those guys, and once they're added, taking them off the 40-man would expose them to waivers, so it's not like you can just shuttle them in and out on options.

 

If Hughes' shoulder doesn't get any better, he might be an option for the 60-day DL, which would open up a spot, and they could always dump Tepesch, Rucinski and/or Wheeler (whom I'd like to see get a legit shot before he gets sent back down) to make room, and in that event, my first two choices from AA to add to the 40-man would probably be Curtis and Bard. I don't trust Busenitz (it takes more than flames at the top level) and Hildenberger needs more seasoning, and will likely be nothing more than that sidearm guy out of the pen every team seems to have (see Bradford, Chad).

 

Belisle, Breslow, Haley and others are freely available to take their 8 ERAs off the 40 man.....

 

This fear of losing bad players always baffles me.

[nater79a]

 

I agree with your basic premise, but there's nothing magic about pitch counts. Even the guy who's responsible for the mythical 100-pitch limit says it was never meant to be a limit. I've been a baseball fan long enough that I can remember when starting pitchers lasted 8 or 9 innings regularly and did it with 4-pitcher rotations and nobody counted pitches. The guy pitched until the other team started slapping him around whether it was 5th 6th, 7th, 8th or 9th inning. Now a complete game is a fluke. But we religiously count pitches and still wind up with more and more pitchers on the operating table undergoing TJ or things like thoracic nerve surgery. Something stinks in Denmark. And I believe the smell is coming from the weight room.

 

"Saving bullpens" is an oxymoron; a tail wagging the dog sort of thing. Relievers have one purpose in life, saving the starter when he runs out of gas. If a guy can't handle throwing a couple dozen pitches every other day he's more of a dead weight than a reliever. He needs to get in shape. Not lifting weights shape, but conditioning and flexibility shape. In any case being a good reliever is more of a mental trait than a physical trait in my amateurish opinion.

 

Okay. Now that I'm done ranting... for now, I agree with you; we need better pitchers at the back end of the rotation to take some pressure off the bull pen. But we also need a better bull pen. And we need to better develop both starters and relievers in the minors. And "better develop" doesn't mean leaving them to languish in the minors until they're old enough to collect Social Security... Use 'em or lose 'em.

 

Yeah, I guess the high pitch count in the early innings is more of a symptom than anything else.  Too much nibbling, deep counts, wasted pitches, etc... It probably means the starter is just pitching badly and you need to go out with the hook and get him.

[KirbyDome89]

Rzepczynski, Holland, Uehara, Storen.....or......Tepesch, Vogelsong, Breslow, Belisle. 

 

If we were placing bets on which group would have a better year before the season started I think the favorite would've been clear. They're all on 1-2 year deals as well. Nobody is saying the Twins should drop $80 million on a relief pitcher (they shouldn't) but the idea that relief pitchers on the market are created equally and therefore signings are a total crapshoot just isn't true. Of course the market for those pitchers is volatile but the goal is to make signings that have the best chance of success. 

[Vanimal46]

Belisle, Breslow, Haley and others are freely available to take their 8 ERAs off the 40 man.....

 

This fear of losing bad players always baffles me.

Agreed. If this is an evaluation year, then the point is to shuffle through all of the options and discard bad players.

 

If this is a contending year, then there's no room for those kinds of players anyway.

[yarnivek1972]

 

The problem is that only two of those guys are on the 40-man roster (R. Rosario and Melotakis). Somebody would need to be dropped to add one of those guys, and once they're added, taking them off the 40-man would expose them to waivers, so it's not like you can just shuttle them in and out on options.

 

If Hughes' shoulder doesn't get any better, he might be an option for the 60-day DL, which would open up a spot, and they could always dump Tepesch, Rucinski and/or Wheeler (whom I'd like to see get a legit shot before he gets sent back down) to make room, and in that event, my first two choices from AA to add to the 40-man would probably be Curtis and Bard. I don't trust Busenitz (it takes more than flames at the top level) and Hildenberger needs more seasoning, and will likely be nothing more than that sidearm guy out of the pen every team seems to have (see Bradford, Chad). 

 

 

You say that like it's a bad thing.  I'd be pretty ecstatic if Hildenberger had a career like Bradford's or Neshek's.  Hildenberger is already 26.  He's only been in AAA for a couple months but that is largely because he's been slow-tracked at every step.  He was in low A too long in 2015 and was in AA too long last year.  At every step, his numbers have been solid to eye popping.  I don't think he needs any additional seasoning.  He's as ready as he's ever going to be IMO.  

[MN_ExPat]

Baseball is a fickle and cruel mistress.   This is especially true when it becomes beholden to the darkly tragic and cruel financial/business side of the game.   We place so much of our hopes and dreams on, in my opinion, the greatest game on the face of the planet.   Add to this the human penchant for panic and over reaction and it is understandable that we often come to these feelings of woe and vitriolic hate.

 

For those of us who played the game growing up and/or who now have our own children playing... this is what we should embrace.   That pure spirit, that childlike feeling of glee that indelibly placed our love of the game forever upon our soul.  

 

This is the reason we keep coming back.   This is the reason we still believe and will always believe.

 

So yes the Twins may very well implode.  More players will continue to get hurt.  The front office will still make head scratching decisions.

 

But this is baseball, and despite that, the game is still pure.  If you don't believe me, think back to when you played, or look in your son's eyes when he takes the field.  This is why we come back.

 

God created the Heavens and Earth, and after resting... He created baseball so that we might always remember that purity.

[mikelink45]

This is a discussion that is more about our fan frustration than anything else.  We see what seems to be obvious and cannot do anything about it.  This FO supposed addressed the bullpen - what are their collective actions so far - Belisle, Breslow, Wilk, Justin Haley, Nick Tepesch, and Ryan Vogelsong -  all pitchers were added.  How did they work out?  We have a boatload of injured pitchers in the minors and do not seem willing to bring up those who aren't unless they are named Buddy Boshers. 

 

Wheeler is brought up but not used - please start him instead of Gibson.  Gibson is retained and Vargas is sent down despite the fact that at a minimum Gibson would not pitch or contribute for four games. 

 

I am looking for a Clue, but so far can only find Mr. Mustard with a hot dog in the bullpen. 

 

And, by the way, I read about the bullpen overuse and it reminded me of a forgotten old Twin - Mike Marshall who three times pitched more than 90 games in a year. http://www.baseball-reference.com/players/m/marshmi01.shtml

 

Or Al Worthington who averaged 50 games a year for us http://www.baseball-reference.com/players/w/worthal01.shtml

[drjim]

 

You say that like it's a bad thing.  I'd be pretty ecstatic if Hildenberger had a career like Bradford's or Neshek's.  Hildenberger is already 26.  He's only been in AAA for a couple months but that is largely because he's been slow-tracked at every step.  He was in low A too long in 2015 and was in AA too long last year.  At every step, his numbers have been solid to eye popping.  I don't think he needs any additional seasoning.  He's as ready as he's ever going to be IMO.  

 

One reason a guy like him gets "slowtracked" is the org usually wants him to go through the league a couple times and have multiple cracks at him to make sure the production is legit and not just a product of deception.

 

He was also hurt late last year, might have slowed his schedule a little.

[yarnivek1972]

One reason a guy like him gets "slowtracked" is the org usually wants him to go through the league a couple times and have multiple cracks at him to make sure the production is legit and not just a product of deception.

 

He was also hurt late last year, might have slowed his schedule a little.

It probably is a product of deception. That doesn't mean it won't play at the MLB level.

[drjim]

 

It probably is a product of deception. That doesn't mean it won't play at the MLB level.

 

I'm certainly not opposed to giving him a try considering the current dumpster fire residing out there.

 

I also agree with you, it would be a great thing if he had a career like Bradford or Neshek.

[akmanak]

The arguement continues to revolve around what we have in AAA and I am afraid to tell you we really do not have anything that stands out. This discussion was brought up before about 3 months ago regarding how our minor league system is crap.

 

I am a realist and refuse to be blinded by unrealistic hope regarding this team. The only and I mean the only thing this team can do to improve this team is trade away some veterans to get some prospects.

 

Get rid of Dozier, Santana while he is still pitching well, and Vargas. We have to many holes that fans believe can simply be plugged by bringing medicore pitchers up from the minors.

[old nurse]

 

For the life of me I can't understand why anyone would care if the MN Twins were to hand out, say, four FA contracts over the winter over $4M, and, say half of them didn't work out.

How in any way would that be worse for anyone involved?

if that's too much money, fold up the franchise. Or be prepared to watch 550 losses over six years.

Ricky Molasco and Phil Hughes haters say hello.  All the mentions of Mauer's contract. A lot of people seem to care where the money is spent because it does have an influence on the team. The point was about finding solutions to the bullpen issue. Year in year out consistency is hard to get.  The number of busts in the free agent market outweighs the success.  Analytics have not figured it out.

[Mike Sixel]

 

Ricky Molasco and Phil Hughes haters say hello.  All the mentions of Mauer's contract. A lot of people seem to care where the money is spent because it does have an influence on the team. The point was about finding solutions to the bullpen issue. Year in year out consistency is hard to get.  The number of busts in the free agent market outweighs the success.  Analytics have not figured it out.

 

My guess is that analytics would show that signing guys over 35, who haven't pitched well in several years, is not a good strategy...just a guess.

[USAFChief]

Ricky Molasco and Phil Hughes haters say hello. All the mentions of Mauer's contract. A lot of people seem to care where the money is spent because it does have an influence on the team. The point was about finding solutions to the bullpen issue. Year in year out consistency is hard to get. The number of busts in the free agent market outweighs the success. Analytics have not figured it out.

Signing a starter for 4-6 years at 8 figures per year, and signing a reliever for 1-3 years, at 7 figures per year, are not apt comparisons.

 

Complaining about large sums of wasted money, and complaining about not possibly wasting modest sums of money, are not apt comparisons.

 

Even if every single FA signed fails, you have your entire minor league system to count on, putting you in the same position as if you hadn't signed a single one. All you've lost is money, and innings. Personally I don't give a rip if ownership makes a few million less. That ain't my goal, and I hope it's not theirs.

 

The point was, indeed, finding bullpen solutions. Arguing that free agency isn't one route is not supported by any argument I've heard put forth here or elsewhere.

[Dave The Dastardly]

 

The arguement continues to revolve around what we have in AAA and I am afraid to tell you we really do not have anything that stands out. This discussion was brought up before about 3 months ago regarding how our minor league system is crap.

I am a realist and refuse to be blinded by unrealistic hope regarding this team. The only and I mean the only thing this team can do to improve this team is trade away some veterans to get some prospects.

Get rid of Dozier, Santana while he is still pitching well, and Vargas. We have to many holes that fans believe can simply be plugged by bringing medicore pitchers up from the minors.

Dude! Sounds like your beer stein is half empty.  Ask any old dairy farmer; if you constantly skim off the cream all you'll have left is 2% milk.

 

[akmanak]

Dude! Sounds like your beer stein is half empty. Ask any old dairy farmer; if you constantly skim off the cream all you'll have left is 2% milk.

I enjoy watching the Twins, I just get frustrated with the blind praise they get from people who believe that it is an easy fix.

 

We have struggled with pitching for a long time and the management continues to do nothing except for picking up pitchers like Wilk.

 

I would understand if they were still in the dome but they are not. They had a brand new stadium build with the promise of spending more to field a better team and that has not happend.

 

I am tired of the same outcome every year and I am tired of people simply saying we are in a rebuilding phase. Our minor league team is so depleted that all we have is average players and the management believes we can build around that?

 

It is time for the Twins to either rebuild by making trades for prospects or just have this season go down the drain again because of pitching.

 

This team will not go anywhere unless somethings are changed and not simply by having a bandaid placed on it.

[ashbury]

Man, what a chain reaction ...

Rucinzki's likely gone forever. 

The Rucinzki one probably could have been triggered by the proverbial butterfly in a Brazilian rainforest.

[jmlease1]

 

I am tired of the same outcome every year and I am tired of people simply saying we are in a rebuilding phase. Our minor league team is so depleted that all we have is average players and the management believes we can build around that?

It is time for the Twins to either rebuild by making trades for prospects or just have this season go down the drain again because of pitching.

This team will not go anywhere unless somethings are changed and not simply by having a bandaid placed on it.

 

We just hired a new President of Baseball Operations and General Manager what--six months ago? You're talking like it's the same leadership making decisions about things now that was making decisions over the past 6 years. And despite your doom & gloom...this team has right now a winning record!

 

Maybe the right move is to blow it up and deal Dozier, Santana, Kintzler, etc but now is NOT the time to do it: no one is buying yet, so there's no market and selling off the team while you have a winning record torpedoes attendance. So not only would you get a poor return you'd also cost the team millions in revenue and more in negative PR? That would be awful management.

 

Falvey & Co. deserve more than 6 months to get things redone around here. Yeesh.

 

 

Breslow is overall pitching fine, so dumping him just to open up a 40-man spot is silly, but there are some other options if space of the 40-man is the issue. the real question is: who is ready to step up from the minors in the 'pen? Not sure it's clear with Chargois and Burdi hurt.

[wabene]

 

 

Falvey & Co. deserve more than 6 months to get things redone around here. Yeesh.

 

Ah maybe. How about 5?