Mejia looking better

[LaBombo]

 

I'd think it's quite the opposite. Mejia doesn't have promising nasty stuff that may never translate, what he does have is four pitches and good command. That seems to imply he's more pitcher than promise. He looks to have the makings of an unsexy but quite stable lefty rotation staple for the foreseeable future.

Fair enough.  Maybe I'm just a little less high on Mejia because he's seemed at least temporarily jinxed in my eyes by the supremely odd Molitor endorsement, "I think Mejia is attractive".

 

There's a better name than Deduno as a comp, but I'm too lazy to think of it.  He's just a recent example of a guy who Twins fans tried to will across the finish line but who turned out not to have "it".  I have higher hopes for Mejia, and his youth alone assures that he'll get plenty of opportunity to translate his fully realized pitches and his minor league stats into major league success.

 

At any rate, I agree with much of what you said, though I would say I see Mejia as a "stable lefty rotation staple" in the foreseeable future rather than for the foreseeable future.  And I will stand by my assessment that the Twins have struggled to develop pitchers until the day I tip over.

[laloesch]

 

I'd think it's quite the opposite. Mejia doesn't have promising nasty stuff that may never translate, what he does have is four pitches and good command. That seems to imply he's more pitcher than promise. He looks to have the makings of an unsexy but quite stable lefty rotation staple for the foreseeable future.

 

I'll take it.  Not every guy can be a #1 or #2.  If he's more a back end of the rotation starter and a lefty, plus plus, that's perfectly fine by me.  What impresses me more is his ability (like you said) to use four pitches.  His fastball isn't too bad either.  

 

I'm gonna go out on a limb and say it's too bad May got hurt because we could easily have seen a rotation of Santana, Berrios, May, Meija and someone else.  That's a pretty solid 1-4.  POTENTIALLY. 

[LaBombo]

 

Mejia is younger and better across the board. No comparison at all to either Deduno or Milone.

 

I agree that Mejia is much younger, a fact I hinted at vaguely with the cryptic phrase "Mejia is much younger". 

 

But the point of the admittedly ill-advised Deduno comparison, who in fairness I said Mejia is only a little like, was the idea of how badly the Twins have struggled recently to harness the raw stuff and/or the minor league success of pitching prospects and turn it into major league success.

 

As for the Milone comp for Mejia's ceiling, Mayday churned out multiple 100+ inning seasons of 4.00ish ERA/xFip starts and average a bit over 6 innings per start in doing so. Not only do I stand by that assessment as Mejia's likely top end, I think the Twins, in their present state at the very least, would consider a 4 ERA, 6+ IP per start lefty a godsend, if not literally a gift from God himself.

[jimbo92107]

 

Mejia is younger and better across the board. No comparison at all to either Deduno or Milone.

Mejia's stuff is better than Milone's, and his command is far better than Deduno's. 

 

Thursday against the Angels we saw some of the reason Eddie Guardado and LaTroy Hawkins are so high on this guy. His stuff can be filthy, like the change ups and curves he had ducking out of the zone. His heater is good, and mostly he keeps it clear of the middle. 

 

Admittedly the Angels helped by being impatient at the plate. Mejia is another pitcher that won't throw strikes unless you force him to by being disciplined. If your team is swinging, he won't give you anything in the zone. He might not fare so well against a lineup of Robbie Grossmans. Fortunately, we've got the only one. Just about everybody else will swing at junk, if it is thrown the way Bert does. 

[drivlikejehu]

 

I agree that Mejia is much younger, a fact I hinted at vaguely with the cryptic phrase "Mejia is much younger". 

 

But the point of the admittedly ill-advised Deduno comparison, who in fairness I said Mejia is only a little like, was the idea of how badly the Twins have struggled recently to harness the raw stuff and/or the minor league success of pitching prospects and turn it into major league success.

 

As for the Milone comp for Mejia's ceiling, Mayday churned out multiple 100+ inning seasons of 4.00ish ERA/xFip starts and average a bit over 6 innings per start in doing so. Not only do I stand by that assessment as Mejia's likely top end, I think the Twins, in their present state at the very least, would consider a 4 ERA, 6+ IP per start lefty a godsend, if not literally a gift from God himself.

 

Mejia as a pitcher is nothing like Milone, beyond them both being left-handed. 

 

If you just are using an example of a pitcher with an ERA around 4 (Milone's career mark is 4.25), then OK, but Milone also had basically one full season as a starter. 

 

If you think Mejia's ceiling is to be a borderline starter who is in and out of rotations, bullpens, and AAA, that's fine, but there's no rational basis for that view. Mejia has what Milone never did - velocity and a breaking ball, in particular. His weakness right now is command, which is/was Milone's only strength.

 

Whether or not he actually maximizes his potential, Mejia does have upside.

[LaBombo]

 

Mejia as a pitcher is nothing like Milone, beyond them both being left-handed. 

 

If you just are using an example of a pitcher with an ERA around 4 (Milone's career mark is 4.25), then OK, but Milone also had basically one full season as a starter. 

 

If you think Mejia's ceiling is to be a borderline starter who is in and out of rotations, bullpens, and AAA, that's fine, but there's no rational basis for that view. Mejia has what Milone never did - velocity and a breaking ball, in particular. His weakness right now is command, which is/was Milone's only strength.

 

Whether or not he actually maximizes his potential, Mejia does have upside.

 

Since I specifically described the operative Milone comparison as being a MLB 4 ERA and 6 IP/start, I'm not sure why you're on about me painting Mejia as an AAAA swing man.

 

And while any ball player about to turn 24 probably has upside just by definition, Mejia was very specifically labelled by an assessment I read about the trade as being available partly because he didn't have a pitch that projected as a plus MLB offering, other than his nice (55) but not brilliant fastball. That's not a lot of upside despite his youth.

 

At any rate, despite the deconstruction of the details, I think the pushback against my brake tap on expectations for a young pitcher with a 5.01 MLB xFip and just 27 innings pitched in 6 starts has justified my actual point: Mejia right now just generates a sense of deja vu for me, in that we've been down the road of unmet expectations for Twins pitching prospects seemingly a thousand times in this decade.

 

Despite that, I'm optimistic about Mejia, but only within the context of the fact that the Twins have been at the Mendoza line of pitching development for a long, long time.

[ashbury]

Mejia is younger and better across the board. No comparison at all to either Deduno or Milone.

I agree that Mejia is much younger, a fact I hinted at vaguely with the cryptic phrase "Mejia is much younger". 

But what's not being discussed here is that he's not very old.

 

Seriously, though, at 24 his resume suggests a future, and he's not had his career year yet to cloud judgement. He has enough stuff, to my untrained eye. And I liked the composure he showed yesterday in a tense game.

 

My one worry is his weight. BB-ref.com lists him as 6'3" 195. No way. Is he 220+ now? Will he continue putting on weight? It's easy to name many bulky but successful pitchers, still I hope all additional pounds prove to be of the productive variety.

[drivlikejehu]

 

At any rate, despite the deconstruction of the details, I think the pushback against my brake tap on expectations for a young pitcher with a 5.01 MLB xFip and just 27 innings pitched in 6 starts has justified my actual point: Mejia right now just generates a sense of deja vu for me, in that we've been down the road of unmet expectations for Twins pitching prospects seemingly a thousand times in this decade.

 

I'm mystified by what you're referring to, because the Twins have been almost completely bereft of pitching prospects this decade. Neither Milone nor Deduno ever appeared on a Twins prospect list. Both were un-hyped journeymen, with the debate revolving around whether they could be adequate 5th starters, mediocre bullpen pieces, or belonged in AAA. 

 

The Twins have mostly called up that sort of AAAA player or marginal prospect, because that's mostly what they've had. Far from being deju vu, having Berrios and Mejia is more like an unprecedented circumstance. The closest comparison I can think of was Hendriks and Gibson in 2013.

[LaBombo]

 

But what's not being discussed here is that he's not very old.

 

Seriously, though, at 24 his resume suggests a future, and he's not had his career year yet to cloud judgement. He has enough stuff, to my untrained eye. And I liked the composure he showed yesterday in a tense game.

 

My one worry is his weight. BB-ref.com lists him as 6'3" 195. No way. Is he 220+ now? Will he continue putting on weight? It's easy to name many bulky but successful pitchers, still I hope all additional pounds prove to be of the productive variety.

 

Well, when you use a banned substance, even if only accidentally, in order to control your weight, you've opened the door to concerns about body mass.

 

The Giants had him on a weight limit during his time in their minor league system, but the Twins have not.  The unofficial version of their stance on his spring training weight was that they were pleased he was 'less roly poly' than in 2016, which is simultaneously mildly encouraging and not a ringing endorsement.

 

On the other hand, CC Sabathia has pitched extremely well throughout most of his entire 17 year MLB career with a physique that suggests he may have eaten a major appliance for lunch, and he seems to have adapted quite nicely, other than his infamous tantrums over not being allowed to use his Sail Barge to field bunt attempts.

[LaBombo]

 

I'm mystified by what you're referring to, because the Twins have been almost completely bereft of pitching prospects this decade. Neither Milone nor Deduno ever appeared on a Twins prospect list. Both were un-hyped journeymen, with the debate revolving around whether they could be adequate 5th starters, mediocre bullpen pieces, or belonged in AAA. 

 

The Twins have mostly called up that sort of AAAA player or marginal prospect, because that's mostly what they've had. Far from being deju vu, having Berrios and Mejia is more like an unprecedented circumstance. The closest comparison I can think of was Hendriks and Gibson in 2013.

 

If you've managed to avoid being caught up in the unrealistic expectations for Twins pitching, that's very commendable, but it doesn't change the fact that those expectations have been a staple of the false hopes for this wounded franchise for some time now.

 

Or maybe I just imagined those hopeful posts about Andrew Albers after his lottery-winner CGSHO, right up until he was unceremoniously FedEx'd to Korea. And while I would point out that I'm not comparing Mejia to Albers, given the weird, uncomfortable, legal deposition tone of the conversation, I feel certain that it will do no good.

 

In summary, if you see no connection between past Twins pitching disappointments/unmet expectations and the rush to board the S.S. Mejia and its 5 xFip and six starts averaging just over 4 innings per, then I'm both envious and, like you, mystified.

 

 

[drivlikejehu]

 

Or maybe I just imagined those hopeful posts about Andrew Albers after his savant-like CGSHO, right up until he was unceremoniously FedEx'd to Korea. And while I would point out that I'm not comparing Mejia to Albers, given the weird, uncomfortable, legal deposition tone of the conversation, I feel certain that it will do no good.

 

There may have been occasional posts of that sort, but that was never the predominant sentiment on this forum, nor was there widespread hope in the other AAAA guys you've brought up.

 

I certainly never wanted Albers to hang around. Did you? Did a significant number of other posters in this thread?

 

Your basic point here is that we should temper any hopes about Mejia because some small number of other people wrongly got excited about guys like Albers and Milone. That really begs the question of why your own expectations should be adjusted based on past opinions that you never even held. 

 

As for myself, I never thought Albers was any good, so my assessment of Mejia is completely unaffected by some incorrect analysis that some random poster made like 5 years ago.

[Thrylos]

 

 

 

BB-ref.com lists him as 6'3" 195. No way. Is he 220+ now? Will he continue putting on weight? It's easy to name many bulky but successful pitchers, still I hope all additional pounds prove to be of the productive variety.

 

That's the official Twins' listing.   They list Belisle at 6'3", 230, which will put Mejia at 240-250 territory, if they have the same height, which is Livan Hernandez territory

 

Some pitchers can be overweight and productive.  From Valenzuela to Wells to El Guapo to Colon to Ben Ancheff (ok kidding) to Sabathia, some pitchers are ok with (more than a few) extra pounds.   Mejia still has lots to go to be like those guys...

[HitInAPinch]

 

Another good start from him last night, he's looking like a solid rotation piece. 

http://filmaj.ca/presentations/pgday2013eu/img/crossfingers.jpg

[nicksaviking]

 

But what's not being discussed here is that he's not very old.

 

Seriously, though, at 24 his resume suggests a future, and he's not had his career year yet to cloud judgement. He has enough stuff, to my untrained eye. And I liked the composure he showed yesterday in a tense game.

 

My one worry is his weight. BB-ref.com lists him as 6'3" 195. No way. Is he 220+ now? Will he continue putting on weight? It's easy to name many bulky but successful pitchers, still I hope all additional pounds prove to be of the productive variety.

 

Yeah, I don't get it, being portly doesn't appear to preclude many guys from being a good pitcher, I don't know why. It doesn't even preclude them from going deep into games which I would think would be beyond their stamina. Sabathia, Bartolo Colon, David Wells, Lance Lynn, Carlos Zambrano, Livan Hernandez. I mean these are just top-of-my-head names and they could all go deep into games.

 

My belief system is firmly grounded in science, but if there was one thing that might sway me to the supernatural, it's chubby pitchers.

[jimbo92107]

 

That's the official Twins' listing.   They list Belisle at 6'3", 230, which will put Mejia at 240-250 territory, if they have the same height, which is Livan Hernandez territory

 

Some pitchers can be overweight and productive.  From Valenzuela to Wells to El Guapo to Colon to Ben Ancheff (ok kidding) to Sabathia, some pitchers are ok with (more than a few) extra pounds.   Mejia still has lots to go to be like those guys...

I'm going to guess Mejia weighs about 260. His body shape appears to accommodate a few extra pounds. Big, thick body, like the pitching horse he is destined to be!

[kab21]

I think we need to separate Mejia from other Twins developmental pitching prospects failures. He was developed by the Giants and spent limited time in the Twins system. Thus he will become Liriano.

Or Boof! (what a name) which is a more reasonable comparison that any of these other random names thrown out. Boof! had a reasonably decent chance at being a solid 3/4 just like Mejia but he couldn't quite be effective. 

[ashbury]

I think we need to separate Mejia from other Twins developmental pitching prospects failures. He was developed by the Giants and spent limited time in the Twins system. Thus he will become Liriano.

 

Or Boof! (what a name) which is a more reasonable comparison that any of these other random names thrown out. Boof! had a reasonably decent chance at being a solid 3/4 just like Mejia but he couldn't quite be effective. 

I never realized that I had been spelling Boof!'s name wrong all these years.

[mikelink45]

Too early for judging the trade or Mejia.  Come back in September and lets see how it plays out.  For now I have some real hope he can fill the rotation spot and I hope someone else takes Gibson's slot.  And for that matter - Santiago's too.  We still need to more solid starters.