Article: Where Would the Twins be Without Sano and Santana?

[Tom Froemming]

The Twins are in first place, but where would they be sans Miguel Sano and Ervin Santana? Sano has established himself as one of the primary candidates to finish as the runner up to Mike Trout for AL MVP (yep, pretty confident we can already call that one). While Santana's peripherals don't stack up against guys like Chris Sale, he'd still be a contender for AL Cy Young right now.Beyond the San-San connection, however, the Twins haven't had many other real standout performers thus far. When you have two guys producing at levels this high above average (Santana has a 230 ERA+ and Sano has a 176 OPS+), you can afford to have a couple of holes on your roster, but the fact remains those two are carrying the team right now. Here's a look at some of the numbers with and without them.

 

OBP

Sano: .417

Team: .334 (7th in MLB)

Without Sano: .324 (would be 15th)

 

SLG

Sano: .600

Team: .414 (16th in MLB)

Without Sano: .393 (would be 25th)

 

ERA

Santana: 1.80

Team: 4.17 (13th in MLB)

Without Santana: 4.67 (would be 24th)

 

WHIP

Santana: 0.83

Team: 1.30 (12th in MLB)

Without Santana: 1.40 (would be 24th)

 

It's a little concerning at how important Sano and Santana are to the Twins success right now for a couple reasons. Individual players just can't lift a team to dominance in baseball like in other sports. As great as they've been, Sano and Santana can only have so much influence on the team's success. Sano has accounted for 10.9 percent of the team's plate appearances and Santana 18.2 percent of the innings pitched. Obviously the biggest concerns revolve around those two going into extended slumps, or worse, getting injured.

 

The Twins are 7-3 in games Santana starts (18-15 otherwise). They're 10-1 when Sano hits a home run (15-17 otherwise). Yes, Max Kepler has really blossomed and Jose Berrios has been terrific in his three starts. Brian Dozier has started to heat up and both Robbie Grossman and Hector Santiago have been solid. But if the Twins are to continue to stay in contention, there are going to be a few more players who step up and contribute on a more consistent basis.

 

A lot of people don’t like to hear this, but there’s a good chance Sano and (especially) Santana regress. Who’s going to pick up the slack when that happens?

 

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[goulik]

Dozier

[highlander]

It's not like they are dominating the competition. I'm excited for them, the longer they hang in there the more confidence they will get. Just keep finding a way to get-R-done! I'm loving it.

[highlander]

It's not like they are dominating the competition. I'm excited for them, the longer they hang in there the more confidence they will get. Just keep finding a way to get-R-done! I'm loving it.

[highlander]

Ahhhhh the dreaded double post

[dgwills]

Before the season we knew there would have to be some players playing well above for their projections for this to be a winning team. It actually has happened. I'm just going to be happy about it while it lasts.

[Don't Feed the Greed Guy]

Combined, Santana and Sano a WAR (wins above replacement) of 2.7 and 2.1, respectively, which are remarkably high numbers if one projects those numbers over an entire season. IF Sano and Santana could achieve that sort of sustainable production over the balance of 2017, they would be responsible for nearly 20 more victories than their peers.

 

Where would the Twins be without them? Probably not in first place in the AL Central.

 

The more intriguing question will be "who will step up" and take their turn if and when Santana and/or Sano regress to the mean?

 

Will Max Kepler get hot again in July, and hit another 10 to 15 home runs? Will Steven Gonsalves join Jose Berrios as a young phenom? Will Glen Perkins or Phil Hughes come back from the dead to bolster the front end of the bullpen or the back end of the rotation?

 

Or, maybe none of the above..? The fun thing is that we all get to wait, watch and see "how it all plays out."

[Don't Feed the Greed Guy]

Combined, Santana and Sano own a WAR (wins above replacement) of 2.7 and 2.1, respectively, which are remarkably high numbers if one projects those numbers over an entire season.

 

IF Sano and Santana could achieve that sort of sustainable prpoduction over the balance of 2017, they would be responsible for nearly 20 more victories than their peers. Where would the Twins be without them? Probably not in first place in the AL Central.

 

The more intriguing question may be "who will step up" and take their turn if and when Santana and/or Sano regress to the mean?

 

Will Max Kepler get hot again in July, and hit another 10 to 15 home runs? Will Steven Gonsalves join Jose Berrios as a young phenom? Will Glen Perkins or Phil Hughes come back from the dead to bolster the front end of the bullpen or the back end of the rotation? Or, maybe none of the above? The fun thing is that we all get to wait, watch, and see "how it all plays out."

[mikelink45]

To create a perspective for this we would have to go through all the teams and remove their top hitter and top pitchers and see what the results would be.  Take out a Bumgarter or Kershaw or a Mike Trout and what happens to their teams?  In other words; this article does point out the importance of an ACE and a Quality hitter, but what would the standings be if everyteam had their top two removed?  That would be the judgment of the supporting casts. 

[Riverbrian]

We are about to find out with the offense. 

 

In the last 3 games Sano has struck out 10 times in 13 PA's. 

 

Zero Walks and Zero Hits. 

 

He's looking kinda slumpy up there right now. 

 

 

 

 

 

 

[Deduno Abides]

As mentioned by Tom, they are likely to regress. The best BABIP for Greg Maddux was .244 and Miguel Cabrera's best was .379. Santana is currently at .136 and Sano is at .459. Where would they be if their BABIPs merely equalled the best of Maddux and Cabrera?

[DocBauer]

It's a great point, but somewhat moot as mentioned above, you take the top couple of performers off most any team and you change the dynamic appreciably...usually.

 

And, as stated previously, it's more a question of who else emerges. With 9 man lineups and 5 day rotations, as well as normal hot and cold spells, baseball is a unique sport. Rosario, Buxton, Kepler, Polanco, Vargas, Berrios and Mejia are still so very young and developing that their ceilings are still a ways off. Mauer is starting to click along with Dozier. So yeah, its more about improvement than any regression from two pkayers, IMO.

[Tom Froemming]

 

To create a perspective for this we would have to go through all the teams and remove their top hitter and top pitchers and see what the results would be. 

I can't do this for every team, but here is the breakdown for Cleveland if you took Francisco Lindor and Carlos Carrasco (who have been their best two guys so far this year) off their team.

 

With Lindor

OBP: .320, 18th

SLG: .410, 18th

 

Without Lindor

OBP: .318, 19th

SLG: .395, 24th

 

With Carrasco

ERA: 4.02, 10th

WHIP: 1.23, 7th

 

Without Carrasco

ERA: 4.20, 14th

WHIP: 1.31, 14th

[Dantes929]

Where would we be without Kintzler?    Pretty sure by this point  last year we had already lost at least 6 games where we had the lead going in to the 9th inning.   This year... none.    To me his Wins Above Last Year is 6.   

[Rosterman]

You are so right! There's four guys in the bullpen that don't need to be there. The catching call and defense has improved, but it is a black hole in a lineup that sees okay production from a highly paid first baseman, what we expect from the guy at second, a promising but not-to-productive shortstop who is no better or worse than his backups, an outfield that isn't tearing up the league in anyway. The designated hitter has been a modest surprise and may keep Park out of the picture for awhile longer. The rotation has been the surprise, even with a couple coming back to earth (Santiago and Hughes). And we still do need sa fifth starter.

 

Combine the fact that the lineup is all over the place, the team doesn't play well at home, there is no bench, and there is little or no releif on the hitting front in the minors...we can only think that the rest of the American League has evened out.

 

[Craig Arko]

Kansas City.