At what point do we start to believe in this year's Twins?

[Willihammer]

 

1. Granite doesn't project for a high MLB OBP because pitchers will very rarely walk him. He doesn't hit the ball hard enough for a high BABIP, either. He can hold his own enough that, combined with defense, he is a good 4th outfielder or passable starter, but he's probably a bad fit (overkill) for LF. Especially with Buxton covering left-center already.

 

LF is probably a trade-only solution for 2017.

 

2. There's a fairly high chance that Samardzija can block a trade to the Twins, since he gets to pick 8 teams per year that he can block.

 

3. The White Sox would laugh at Garver for Robertson.

1. Maybe. Its a low bar to begin with, and he's already on the 40 man so there's nothing stopping them trying if they want to. Worst case scenario maybe it sends a message to Rosario that finally penetrates.

 

2. Good point. Could be a non-starter, but we don't know til we ask.

 

3. You don't know that. The rumor last winter was Severino for Robertson (+ cash). Too steep for the Nats; they were the ones who walked away. Would you rather have Severino than Garver?

[tarheeltwinsfan]

Heck, I believe in the Twins every Spring Training until they really get bad...which hasn't happened yet this year.

[Mike Sixel]

For me? Some time in July.

[Doomtints]

 

Ortiz got hurt around the time of the AS break in 2001 as well. Another factor in scoring less was that Doug Mientkiwicz hit like a borderline all star in April and May with an OPS of about 1.000 and About .800 give or take the rest of the way.

Edit: I must be getting old. I guess Ortiz came back shortly after the Break in 2001. He missed most of May, June and July.

 

Mientky, at the time, said that losing Guzman was too much for the team. They felt they could not do it without him.

[drivlikejehu]

 

1. Maybe. Its a low bar to begin with, and he's already on the 40 man so there's nothing stopping them trying if they want to. Worst case scenario maybe it sends a message to Rosario that finally penetrates.

 

2. Good point. Could be a non-starter, but we don't know til we ask.

 

3. You don't know that. The rumor last winter was Severino for Robertson (+ cash). Too steep for the Nats; they were the ones who walked away. Would you rather have Severino than Garver?

 

1. I should probably add to my comment that I actually would pick Granite over Rosario if I had to choose. But in the larger context of improving the team for 2017, I think the benefit would be small, especially with Granite still getting up to speed after being hurt.

 

2. It would be funny if he left the Twins off the list because it seemed ludicrous that they'd be buyers. Even if he couldn't/wouldn't block, that's still a tricky one from a prospect pricing standpoint. His year in the AL Central was pretty bad.

 

3. That's a rumor though, and a seemingly not very plausible one from the White Sox standpoint. Robertson also has a limited no-trade clause. I personally like Garver, but given his age and the fact he's been more solid than great offensively in the minors, I just can't see it. 

[Monkeypaws]

If it ain't broke, why "fix" it? 

[akmanak]

I will start believing in this team when they can win against teams outside of our division on a regular basis.

[Dozier's Glorious Hair]

 

I will start believing in this team when they can win against teams outside of our division on a regular basis.

 

Win % against AL Central teams - .571

Win % against non-AL Central teams - .563

[tarheeltwinsfan]

 

I haven't looked today, but as of a couple days ago, the Twins were leading baseball in DRS.
Of the last 10 teams to lead baseball in DRS, 9 of them won 90+ games - and the one that didn't won 85.
Three of those teams also won the WS.
This defense is legit, and defense is a legit formula for winning. I'm sold on this being an 85+ win team, which is shocking to me. I had them at 73 coming into the year.

Defense!   Defense! Defense!

[Oldgoat_MN]

re: Jeff Samardzija

From Cott's Baseball Contracts (Baseball Prospectus)

5 years/$90M (2016-20)

signed by San Francisco as a free agent 12/9/15
$9M signing bonus ($3M at signing, $6M in paid in four installments of $1.5M each Jan. 15, 2017-20)
16:$9M, 17-20:$18M annually
limited no-trade protection (may select eight clubs to which he will accept a trade)

 

It's not 8 teams he can block, but rather 8 teams he will consent to be traded to. I think it's unlikely the Twins made the list.

[akmanak]

Win % against AL Central teams - .571

Win % against non-AL Central teams - .563

Still lower and that number is dropping when we get swept by the Rays.

[Dozier's Glorious Hair]

 

Still lower and that number is dropping when we get swept by the Rays.

 

Are you sure about that?    

[bird]

 

Still lower and that number is dropping when we get swept by the Rays.

 

Please elaborate.

[glunn]

Here is an article from a non-Twins fan who seems to be becoming a believer:

 

http://www.cbssports.com/mlb/news/keri-the-10-break-up-the-twins-fantasy-baseball-advice-and-more-mlb-observations/

[DaveW]

Still lower and that number is dropping when we get swept by the Rays.

hmmmm

[DocBauer]

To address a couple issues brought up:

 

1] Love the potential of Granite as a quality 4th OF with starting potential (OF and backup CF) but he's just getting his feet wet in AAA and I'm a Rosario believer. His defense is excellent and he oozes potential and ability. He may always be a bit inconsistent and undiscipled, but there is so much ability and potential. I'd be committed to him for the entire season.

 

2] Even with the unfortunate Burdi injury, there remains the real possibility of at least one, if not two, from Chargois, Helgenberger, Reed and Curtis being ready about mid season. From the left side, I'm looking at one of Melotakis, Jay or Rosario to do the same.

 

3] Santana is very good. Berrios belongs, but don't be surprised if the young man rides a few lows to go along with his highs. Santiago is solid, sometimes good. I'm encouraged by Mejia. I'd rather "survive" with Berrios and Mejia in the rotation for the rest of the year to build for a better tomorrow. I'd ride Gibson and a re-habbed Hughes for June in the 5th spot, for now.

 

July comes and we don't have a 5th SP, move Duffey to the rotation if one of the young RP emerges. Audition Haley, Wheeler, Slegers and maybe even Turley.

 

I want to keep winning. I get "going for it" instead of sitting on your hands. I just don't feel this is the time/season to part with prospects unless it's a cheap (prospect wise) veteran or a major, long term controlled top of the rotation option.

 

Despite fun now, and the frustration of several seasons, I don't want "slow and steady for the future" to be replaced by "expensive but going for it now".

[Brock Beauchamp]

Still lower and that number is dropping when we get swept by the Rays.

Ignoring how foolish this statement seems just a few hours after it was made, the Twins just swept the Orioles in Baltimore. Last I checked, most people agree the Orioles are a better team than the Rays.

[mikecgrimes]

I heard Reusse explain low attendance on the idea that the fans know this team won't end up .500,  To me the big difference is at catcher and despite the fact I'm aware of the improvement I can't see it with my own eyes other then seeing what Santana and the rest of the pitching staff is doing.  I end up giving all the credit to Santana with the idea that he won't keep it up.  The average fan doesn't even know about the defensive improvement at catcher, while many others know it's better but don't understand the impact it's making.  I predicted 92 wins going into the season so am easily able to just stick with that, but when it's difficult to see what they are doing better it's hard to move much off of preseason expectations.  It's baseball strange things happen, luck is always a factor and despite 162 games early season success plays a role as the season progresses.  part of understanding why they are good this year is understanding why they were bad last year, they were among the last teams in baseball to adapt to modern strategy.  It appears they leapfrogged several teams in the off season with the new management and getting everyone on board.  Remember when we found out the new management wouldn't be able to fire Paul Molitor?  That information was wrong the Paul Molitor who managed the team the last two years was fired.  Luckily for us Paul Molitor adapted.

[drjim]

Years of losing and bad weather will depress attendance. If the Twins stay decent, I bet it starts to pick up a little bit.

[HitInAPinch]

I'm still a believer in the old saying "as the weather warms up, so do the bats".  Give me a call a few weeks after the All Star break.  We could see something special.

 

Twins record:  12-14 at Home, 14-5 Elsewhere.  Hmm.....

Get Sano more rest.  

Somehow, find another Starter.  Use the #5 spot for aggressive MiLB pitcher auditions.  Now that Berrios seems to have it figured out, need to see if anyone else could make it.

[gil4]

 

Will the starters continue to go deep enough into games to keep the bullpen from collapsing?

And now we have the answer. 
 

[Mike Sixel]

 

Years of losing and bad weather will depress attendance. If the Twins stay decent, I bet it starts to pick up a little bit.

 

Attendance is largely correlated with the previous years' record. Since, you know, it is largely correlated with season ticket sales.....Anyone that doesn't understand that (Ruesse, apparently), hasn't read much about what drives attendance at MLB games.

[Trevor0333]

I've always believed in the offense coming into the season, until they patch up the bullpen and find a 5th starter they are going to have difficulty staying in the race.

[drjim]

I'm worried the 8th inning on Monday might end up being the high water mark of this season.

 

Back to back gut punches take a little bit out of a team.