At what point do we start to believe in this year's Twins?

[DocBauer]

I'd be a bigger believer if they made some moves to help out the rotation.... The offense is legit. The pitching is not legit.

Except...look how much better the offense could be? Dozier hasn't really heated up yet. Buxton and Mauer are just starting to. Rosario is in a slump right now. Not disagreeing with your assessment, just pointing out the offense could be that much better in the coming weeks and months.

 

A couple relievers for the second half ready, Santana, Berrios and Santiago healthy, and Mejia solid and being allowed to pitch and grow and develop and I'm actually feeling pretty good even without a solid choice for the 5th starting spot...as of today.

[Joe A. Preusser]

16 games over .500. That's the point at which the team could lose half their remaining games and still win 90, ie) likely playoffs.

 

Whenever any team achieves that level in a season I consider them playoff contenders. Until then it's just watching the standings and waiting.

[ThejacKmp]

 

What are we being asked to believe in?

 

That this team will play meaningful games in September? I believe

That this team can make the playoffs? I'm close

That this team can win the division? Shakier

That this team can win the World Series? I'm not even close

 

If Berrios and Santana are for real, I almost think World Series is as likely as the division. It's the back of the rotation I worry about the most - it's not hard to see Santiago, Hughes and Mejia being super messy the other three days. And if one of those is Tepesch . . .

 

 

[ThejacKmp]

 

Except...look how much better the offense could be? Dozier hasn't really heated up yet. Buxton and Mauer are just starting to. Rosario is in a slump right now. Not disagreeing with your assessment, just pointing out the offense could be that much better in the coming weeks and months.

A couple relievers for the second half ready, Santana, Berrios and Santiago healthy, and Mejia solid and being allowed to pitch and grow and develop and I'm actually feeling pretty good even without a solid choice for the 5th starting spot...as of today.

 

That's the thing they need - a trade for an expiring contract where the Twins dip into the savings of the past four years and pick up the contract and throw in a minor piece. They don't need to trade for Johnny Cueto, they need to trade for an R.A. Dickey type.

[amjgt]

 

16 games over .500. That's the point at which the team could lose half their remaining games and still win 90, ie) likely playoffs.

Whenever any team achieves that level in a season I consider them playoff contenders. Until then it's just watching the standings and waiting.

 

It's 18 games over 500.

[mikecgrimes]

I don't know how much of my spring training prediction was just the way I feel every March but I haven't been surprised by much.  Santana's a lot better then expected and Buxton bat isn't where I expected it to be at this point.  I don't know if the stats will ever really be able to tell the story of getting rid of a below average defensive/pitching game catcher and replacing him with two solid replacements but the Castro signing is why I was so confident this team would be a lot better.  I also saw the Columbus Blue Jackets bounce back from a season that got away from them in the first couple weeks and bounce back to one of the best records in hockey this year.  It's tough to say how many extra losses the 0-9 start added but I'm guessing a minimum of 15.  This team is solid, I think we see our teams flaws while ignoring other teams flaws.  One things for certain this team isn't gonna play like a 100 loss team the rest of the way so with dumb luck they should be able to go minimum 50 and 69 the rest of the way putting them at 75 wins.  The wild Card cut off should be somewhere around 85 so they just have to do enough right to win 10 or 12 extra games.  I'm not saying it should be easy or we should expect the playoffs but I will have to see this team fail to believe it at this point. 

[Joe A. Preusser]

It's 18 games over 500.

True enough. Blame my Swiss cheese brain

[mikecgrimes]

 

16 games over .500. That's the point at which the team could lose half their remaining games and still win 90, ie) likely playoffs.

Whenever any team achieves that level in a season I consider them playoff contenders. Until then it's just watching the standings and waiting.

 

I like that way of thinking although I like to start from the minimum point a playoff spot becomes reasonably possible which I would call 84 wins, meaning we're half a game above the minimum.

[drjim]

I don't know how much of my spring training prediction was just the way I feel every March but I haven't been surprised by much. Santana's a lot better then expected and Buxton bat isn't where I expected it to be at this point. I don't know if the stats will ever really be able to tell the story of getting rid of a below average defensive/pitching game catcher and replacing him with two solid replacements but the Castro signing is why I was so confident this team would be a lot better. I also saw the Columbus Blue Jackets bounce back from a season that got away from them in the first couple weeks and bounce back to one of the best records in hockey this year. It's tough to say how many extra losses the 0-9 start added but I'm guessing a minimum of 15. This team is solid, I think we see our teams flaws while ignoring other teams flaws. One things for certain this team isn't gonna play like a 100 loss team the rest of the way so with dumb luck they should be able to go minimum 50 and 69 the rest of the way putting them at 75 wins. The wild Card cut off should be somewhere around 85 so they just have to do enough right to win 10 or 12 extra games. I'm not saying it should be easy or we should expect the playoffs but I will have to see this team fail to believe it at this point.

Good word. I felt better about this team heading into the season, but I couldn't fully get over the trauma of last year.

 

I remember much coversation about whether 20% chance to be in it, 10% chance of making playoffs was too optimistic. That would now be pessimistic.

[jimbo92107]

 

Why not give AAA guys like Slegers and Wheeler a try?

 

What's the point of having a farm system if you never give guys a chance?

 

How bad would Slegers be? Gibson bad? Hughes bad? Meija-like? Never know until you give them a try.

 

Hildenberger has a sub 2 ERA for his entire minor league career, 6 teams, 3+ years. 

 

I'd like to see these guys get a shot before making trades.

This makes sense for two huge reasons:

 

First, promoting successful AAA players is exactly how the system is supposed to work. We are supposed to expect a gradual flow of players from the minors to the majors. Not all of them are high-round picks (Brian Dozier), and some of them aren't even "prospects." So what? Let merit have some weight!

 

Second, not a single guy in AAA wants to remain there a minute longer than absolutely necessary. Every one of them craves to get to The Show. Therefore, acknowledging all their hard word with well-deserved promotions will serve to motivate Twins minor league players to work their butts off with even more enthusiasm.

 

******BUT WAIT, THERE'S MORE********

 

Third Bonus Reason: The Twins are owned by the Pohlad family, a group of billionaire bankers with a reputation for stinginess. Stay stingy, Pohlads! AAA guys are much, much cheaper than established veterans, and you can use them and throw them away like toilet paper! So have your GM call up these cheap, enthusiastic Question Mark players, give 'em a cuppa, see what happens! It'll be fun, I promise, and the fans will love it!

[USAFChief]

Why not give AAA guys like Slegers and Wheeler a try?

 

What's the point of having a farm system if you never give guys a chance?

 

How bad would Slegers be? Gibson bad? Hughes bad? Meija-like? Never know until you give them a try.

 

Hildenberger has a sub 2 ERA for his entire minor league career, 6 teams, 3+ years. 

 

I'd like to see these guys get a shot before making trades.

Well, for one thing, I have to believe if Falvine thought either were ready to help the Twins, they'd already have tried.

[Deduno Abides]

If they're in first place after Cleveland leaves on August 17. Even though people are starved for a winner after years of promises, patience is needed to build a team that can win the World Series, not just compete for a wild card or a puncher's chance to win a first round playoff.

[Jerr]

 

I felt in spring training the position player core of this team was ready to contend, and nothing has changed my mind.

 

Go get some pitching help.  It'd be a crime not to.  

And me? as a long time Twins fan since 1961, I ALWAYS believe           and now in this year, I am getting really excited!!!!!!!

[Han Joelo]

if the Twins make it 18 games over .500 and then go .500 the rest of the way, I don't like their playoff chances. I'm not expecting a championship this year (that would be nice!) but playing like winners the whole year would be my greatest hope.

[jokin]

 

 I don't know if the stats will ever really be able to tell the story of getting rid of a below average defensive/pitching game catcher and replacing him with two solid replacements but the Castro signing is why I was so confident this team would be a lot better. 

 

I second that emotion. I'd been on TD asking for Jason Castro for nigh on 2+ seasons- it was hard to understand why the previous management failed to connect the dots  that leads from competency behind the plate and decent pitching results.  Castro has faded offensively from his early promise at the start of his career and (at the start of this season, too), but the change of scenery has improved his output and outlook defensively-  critically important addition.

[Vanimal46]

Except...look how much better the offense could be? Dozier hasn't really heated up yet. Buxton and Mauer are just starting to. Rosario is in a slump right now. Not disagreeing with your assessment, just pointing out the offense could be that much better in the coming weeks and months.

A couple relievers for the second half ready, Santana, Berrios and Santiago healthy, and Mejia solid and being allowed to pitch and grow and develop and I'm actually feeling pretty good even without a solid choice for the 5th starting spot...as of today.

I mean, as I said in the original post, the offense is legit. Whether it's led by Sano, Dozier, Kepler, or Polanco, I like it.

 

This team can not survive with 4 starting pitchers as they trek on 50 games in 50 days or whatever the schedule says. The bullpen problem could absolutely be solved internally since there are 75,000 bullpen arms waiting for their chance. The rotation can not be solved internally. They need outside help for depth...

[gil4]

 

 

Our pitching can regress some and we could legitimately still expect to be a strong contender for a playoff spot.

True.  And pretty darned amazing after living through last year.

[DocBauer]

I mean, as I said in the original post, the offense is legit. Whether it's led by Sano, Dozier, Kepler, or Polanco, I like it.

This team can not survive with 4 starting pitchers as they trek on 50 games in 50 days or whatever the schedule says. The bullpen problem could absolutely be solved internally since there are 75,000 bullpen arms waiting for their chance. The rotation can not be solved internally. They need outside help for depth...

I absolutely love the defense, most of the offense, especially when you consider that half these guys are still feeling their way towards their potential! Very exciting!

 

I agree the bullpen issues...though not terrible...could be handled internally. But are you sure about your numbers? 75,000 sounds a bit low to me. Lol But I'm still torn on any trade for a SP. You can trade next to nothing for a solid piece, salary dump, etc, OK. But for a young and growing team, still finishing a rebuild, I'm not sure I wouldn't roll through Gibson, Hughes, Wheeler, etc, for now and see if something sticks and hold out for now. Maybe even Duffey, when a couple young RP are ready. He'll, maybe even audition Haley!

 

I don't want to just give every 5th day away, of course, but it always seems as if half the teams out there can't field a full 5 man rotation. As long as you have some options to run through, shouldn't you at least run a roll call of options for now rather than trade? Just a thought or two.

[h2oface]

NOW!

[Riverbrian]

 

NOW!

 

I'm in

 

I was waiting for your cue. 

[Doomtints]

Although I am addicted to stats and granular analysis, I also have a soft spot for the simpler, immeasurable theories.

 

I think the Twins improvement with defense this year coupled with Berrios's arrival might just make the difference. The Twins have a bullpen and defense that can bridge the gaps after the two good top-of-the-rotation starters.  If Berrios and Santana continue along with an ERA in the lower 3s, good things will happen -- and falling to the 3s leaves a lot of room for regression and some bad outings.

 

But don't forget -- an untimely trade (Lawton) and an untimely injury (Guzman) sank the rising 2001 Twins faster than one could have imagined. Not saying this team is like the 2001 Twins, mind you, just pointing out that young teams can collapse when seemingly small things happen.

 

Still not completely sold, and I don't think I will be until pretty late in the year, but it doesn't matter. This is a great year to be a Twins fan.

[diehardtwinsfan]

honestly, 2001 might be an apt comparison to this team, especially given our pitching situation.

[Thrylos]

I think that it is a matter of acting based on facts and really not "believing" because there is nothing to believe.

 

Fact:  The Twins are 7 games over .500, with 3 games lead in the Loss column in both the division and the Wild Card race. 

 

Fact: There are several holes they need to close if they want to keep it up:

 

- A starting OF

- A starting P better than Santiago

- Two to three RP better than Kintzler

 

Rewind to 2015.  The Twins found themselves in a similar (but not as good) position and Ryan chose to sit on his behind and did nothing to close the holes of that team.

 

The Twins will be contenders if they want to be, by filling those holes.  Potentially  1-2 spots in the pen could be filled from within (Burdi, Chargois) but they need at least 3 trades (OF, SP, RP) to solidify the team.

[Doomtints]

 

honestly, 2001 might be an apt comparison to this team, especially given our pitching situation.

 

The problem with the 01 Twins wasn't pitching, the problem was the offense fell off a cliff. 

 

First half 55-32, 450 runs scored, 387 runs allowed.

Second half 30-45, 321 runs scored, 379 runs allowed

 

They peaked at 56-32, 5 games up. Cue gruesome Guzman injury and Lawton trade. Within 2 weeks they lost the division lead and within a month they were 5 games back. 

The 2017 Twins probably won't be 55-32 at the mid-point, but we'll see. And hopefully they won't shock the team by trading off the top player on offense if they are!

[yarnivek1972]

Ortiz got hurt around the time of the AS break in 2001 as well. Another factor in scoring less was that Doug Mientkiwicz hit like a borderline all star in April and May with an OPS of about 1.000 and About .800 give or take the rest of the way.

 

Edit: I must be getting old. I guess Ortiz came back shortly after the Break in 2001. He missed most of May, June and July.

[ShouldaCouldaWoulda]

For me, mid-to-late July.

[drjim]

I think that it is a matter of acting based on facts and really not "believing" because there is nothing to believe.

 

Fact: The Twins are 7 games over .500, with 3 games lead in the Loss column in both the division and the Wild Card race.

 

Fact: There are several holes they need to close if they want to keep it up:

 

- A starting OF

- A starting P better than Santiago

- Two to three RP better than Kintzler

 

Rewind to 2015. The Twins found themselves in a similar (but not as good) position and Ryan chose to sit on his behind and did nothing to close the holes of that team.

 

The Twins will be contenders if they want to be, by filling those holes. Potentially 1-2 spots in the pen could be filled from within (Burdi, Chargois) but they need at least 3 trades (OF, SP, RP) to solidify the team.

Good thoughts. Twins have nowhere near the prospects to get all three.

 

I see an underwhelming reliever and possibly a back end starter that is more a salary dump.

[Willihammer]

 

Fact: There are several holes they need to close if they want to keep it up:

 

- A starting OF

- A starting P better than Santiago

- Two to three RP better than Kintzler

I think they could do all three if they wanted. At least they could try.

 

1. Option Rosario, recall Granite. Keeps the LF defense at a high level while hopefully improving OBP. Also a great pinch runner.

 

2. Trade for Samadzija. He's expensive and early in his contract so the package ought to be reasonable. Maybe Gordon + filler.

 

3. a. Send Gibson to the pen.

    b. Fire up the minor league conveyor belt. Get Burdi, Chargois, etc up here. Plenty of DFA candidates at the back of the pen to make it happen. If nothing sticks by the trade deadline, call the White Sox and give them Garver for Robertson.

[drivlikejehu]

 

I think they could do all three if they wanted. At least they could try.

 

1. Option Rosario, recall Granite. Keeps the LF defense at a high level while hopefully improving OBP. Also a great pinch runner.

 

2. Trade for Samadzija. He's expensive and early in his contract so the package ought to be reasonable. Maybe Gordon + filler.

 

3. a. Send Gibson to the pen.

    b. Fire up the minor league conveyor belt. Get Burdi, Chargois, etc up here. Plenty of DFA candidates at the back of the pen to make it happen. If nothing sticks by the trade deadline, call the White Sox and give them Garver for Robertson.

 

1. Granite doesn't project for a high MLB OBP because pitchers will very rarely walk him. He doesn't hit the ball hard enough for a high BABIP, either. He can hold his own enough that, combined with defense, he is a good 4th outfielder or passable starter, but he's probably a bad fit (overkill) for LF. Especially with Buxton covering left-center already.

 

LF is probably a trade-only solution for 2017.

 

2. There's a fairly high chance that Samardzija can block a trade to the Twins, since he gets to pick 8 teams per year that he can block.

 

3. The White Sox would laugh at Garver for Robertson.

[Thrylos]

 

I think they could do all three if they wanted. At least they could try.

 

1. Option Rosario, recall Granite. Keeps the LF defense at a high level while hopefully improving OBP. Also a great pinch runner.

 

2. Trade for Samadzija. He's expensive and early in his contract so the package ought to be reasonable. Maybe Gordon + filler.

 

3. a. Send Gibson to the pen.

    b. Fire up the minor league conveyor belt. Get Burdi, Chargois, etc up here. Plenty of DFA candidates at the back of the pen to make it happen. If nothing sticks by the trade deadline, call the White Sox and give them Garver for Robertson.

 

I don't disagree, but I'd rather knock on the Pirates door to get Nova (who is younger and cheaper and 2.5 seasons of control), see if they can add someone like Juan Nicasio for salary relief and also see whether I can buy low on Starling Marte.  One stop shopping.