Article: Twins Daily Draft Preview

[Jeremy Nygaard]

The Twins will officially be on the clock with the first overall pick on the evening of June 12th. They should be making their selection shortly after 6pm. This will be the first time the franchise selects first overall since taking catcher Joe Mauer in 2001.

 

Along with the first overall pick - and two other first day picks (35th and 37th overall) - the Twins also have the largest combined draft pool, $14,156,800. Round 3-10 will be on Tuesday. The final 30(!) rounds are on Wednesday.

 

It stands to be an exciting few days for Twins fans and draft enthusiasts. There will plenty of draft coverage right here in the weeks leading up, so check back often.DRAFT SLOTS AND POOL

 

Each draft pick has a specific dollar amount assigned to it, but it’s not as simple as just drafting a player in that spot and him getting all the dollars tied to the pick. The team and player can agree to any signing bonus and that money goes against the cap. As long as the entire draft class stays under the limit, there are no penalties.

 

There are a few exceptions: If a player doesn’t sign, the team loses value assigned to that pick. For example, if the Twins fail to sign the first overall pick, their draft pool would be reduced to $6,386,100. Additionally, the cap for all picks for rounds 11-40 is $100,000. A team who signs a player for more than $100,000 will have the excess amount count against the cap. For example, if the Twins sign their 11th round pick for $600,000, $500,000 will count against the cap.

 

1st overall (round 1): $7,770,700

35th overall (comp round A): $1,935,300

37th overall (round 2): $1,846,100

76th overall (round 3): $755,500

106th overall (round 4): $507,000

136th overall (round 5): $378,700

166th overall (round 6): $283,300

196th overall (round 7): $220,700

226th overall (round 8): $174,400

256th overall (round 9): $148,000

286th overall (round 10): $137,100

 

UNDER CONSIDERATION

 

As of today, there are a handful of names still being talked about as potential 1-1 candidates. We will go in depth on these players as the draft gets closer. But the list of names contains college arms righty Kyle Wright and lefty Brendan McKay, preps uberprospect Hunter Greene, shortstop/centerfielder Royce Lewis and pitcher Shane Baz, and college first baseman Pavin Smith.

 

Handicapping the race to go first three weeks early probably has Wright in the lead as McKay fades. Greene, who hasn’t pitched in a game for over a month, and only threw 28 innings all year, remains an ultra-intriguing prospect, but is surrounded with question marks. Lewis has some questions about his bat, but is a premium athlete who oozes potential. Baz has as much helium as anyone in the draft and. Smith is a left-handed bat who plays first well defensively, but has some questions about his ability to hit left-handed pitching.

 

DRAFT STRATEGIES

 

Having the largest draft pool provides the Twins with some flexibility to get creative. But pump your brakes before your mind wanders too far. This isn’t going to be like the Correa/McCullers/Ruiz year or the Bregman/Tucker/Cameron year. The reason is simple: The rules changed.

 

The Twins still have the pick worth the most, yes; but the value has been reduced (by almost $1.25 million) while picks 5-9 have all increased by over a million dollars. By bringing the values of these picks much closer together, it has narrowed the advantage in two ways. First, the team picking first, in this case the Twins, can’t just skim a million and a half off of their pick value and still be able to offer more than the second team could. And on the flip side of that, teams that pick after the Twins could get creative with their pools and be able to come up with more than the first pick value. That would have been very tough to do before.

 

That doesn’t mean the Twins can’t still get creative. I anticipate they’ll still be able to save a considerable amount of money to turn a 6th round pick into a 2nd round value or an 11th or 12th round pick into a 5th round value (or something like that). The ability to get creative remains, but the chance to manipulate their pool into getting two Top 7 talents doesn’t.

 

OTHER POTENTIAL TARGETS

 

Two names that are intriguing in the 30s are Clark Schmidt, a right-handed pitcher from South Carolina who is missing the season after undergoing Tommy John surgery, and Seth Romero, a lefty who was kicked off the team at Houston. Both are first round talents and just might be worth the risk with that “extra” pick. The Twins drafted Tyler Benninghoff in the 11th round last year knowing that he’d need Tommy John surgery. And the Twins know Romero well, though it’s unclear whether or not he’ll make their final draft board.

 

Some other names that should receive consideration: Heliot Ramos, a Puerto Rican outfielder, Jacob Heatherly, a prep lefty from Alabama, Brent Rooker, an outfielder from Mississippi State and Greg Deichmann, a third baseman from LSU. The Twins drafted both Rooker and Deichmann last summer.

 

Though the draft is quickly approaching, many teams haven’t gotten a great read on contract demands yet and that doesn’t happen for many players until the final days before the draft. But the Twins have always been one of the best teams in the league at being able to gauge a player’s signability. Both Stephen Gonsalves and Kolton Kendrick are recent players to have dropped, and while many teams passed because of signability issues, the Twins were able to draft confidently because their area scouts did the work and knew the players would sign. Though their professional careers haven’t taken the same paths, the organization impressed many others with the homework they had done.

 

And you better believe the Sean Johnson-lead scouting department will have all their homework done this year too.

 

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[gunnarthor]

Nice. I was looking at fangraphs sortable draft list and wondered if you knew how the Twins felt about three college arms slated for the 30s - Will Crowe, Tanner Houck and Alex Lange.  Also, Seth Romero is represented by Boras which might make him a tougher sign than expected. 

 

I think I'm hoping for a draft of Wright, Clarke and Crowe or such but would be very happy if a college arm started to fall, like Dakota Hudson did last year.

[joey emerson]

Am i dreaming but is there a shot at both Schmidt and Romero at 35 and 37? It would make it easier taking on the risk or taking Greene over Wright.

[Mike Sixel]

Another reason it will be hard to game the system:

 

two other teams have 2nd picks before the Twins do.

[twinsfanstreif]

Also, Seth Romero is represented by Boras which might make him a tougher sign than expected.

 

Why would he be a tough sign? He was kicked off his college team so it's not like he can go back to college unless he goes juco or independent which would be very tricky for a guy who has had as many problems as he has. He pretty much has no leverage. If he is drafted in the top 2 rounds he better be happy with that and take it unless the team that drafts him is only offering him like 10th round money. Few guys who have been kicked off the college team get a second chance like that, he should be happy with that

[twinsfanstreif]

For our 35th and 37th pick I am intrigued by Ramos, I like his bat a lot and PR prospects tend to be under rated. I would also take a flier on Romero, he's just too talented to not try with, I would get him in anger management classes asap though.

[bird]

Sounds like if they sign Romero they'd best enroll everyone they expect to come into contact with him in anger management classes.

[gunnarthor]

 

Why would he be a tough sign? 

Let me re-phrase, if the Twins draft him, he'll sign. But I suspect that Boras has been working very hard to get a good deal for Romero that is more in line with his talent level than his draft location and might be telling teams that Romero wants X-amount.  Arguably some team, maybe the Nats, agrees and plans to nab him in the second round for above slot $.

 

The Twins might not want to spend that high so they could A) pass B - draft him and pay X or C) draft him and tell him to eat the medicine and sign him for what the Twins want to pay.  Option C applies to basically every player in the draft. If you draft Faedo and offer him 1m less than he expected/informed you he'd sign for, he probably still signs but it would affect your relationship going forward. That's why teams tend not to do option C.

Edited May 24, 2017 by gunnarthor

[Thrylos]

 

, Seth Romero is represented by Boras which might make him a tougher sign than expected.

 

Seth Romero does not have many options other than transfer right now...

[nater79a]

Rooker and Deichmann were draft eligible sophomores in '16?  Any one know what the age requirements are for this?

[Bob Sacamento]

 

Rooker and Deichmann were draft eligible sophomores in '16?  Any one know what the age requirements are for this?

Players who are eligible for the draft:

 

---High school players, if they have graduated from high school and have not yet attended college or junior college;
---College players, from four-year colleges who have either completed their junior or senior years or are at least 21 years old; and
---Junior college players, regardless of how many years of school they have completed

 

So the two were at least 21 at the time of draft in 2016

[Oldgoat_MN]

Count me out of the Seth Romero conversation.

The team obviously wanted him on their roster. They tried to work with him. They finally decided he was too much trouble.

Now take that attitude and put a couple million $ in his pocket.

You think he's going to suddenly become a hard working, focused prospect?

I think it's unlikely.

[diehardtwinsfan]

 

Count me out of the Seth Romero conversation.

The team obviously wanted him on their roster. They tried to work with him. They finally decided he was too much trouble.

Now take that attitude and put a couple million $ in his pocket.

You think he's going to suddenly become a hard working, focused prospect?

I think it's unlikely.

 

Romero is going to depend more on where you get him in my opinion and the exact issues behind all of this.  Not sure I'd waste a slot 35/37 on him with the info we have available... too much risk.  Problem with him going further down though is that he's a Junior, so he can go back to school as long as he can get a transfer to some place that will play him, so he has enough leverage to force a second chance.

[Willihammer]

Get Rooker. Please get Rooker. The guy MASHES. Could be the next Goldschmidt.

[Willihammer]

Rooker currently slugging .881. Tops among all D1 players... next closest guy is .119 points behind (Ben Fisher).

 

http://www.clarionledger.com/story/sports/college/mississippi-state/2016/06/03/msu-uses-bats-top-semo-starkville-regional-opener/85340054/

 

 

Rooker regularly slugs the ball out of the cage at batting practice at an exit velocity of faster than 110 mph, Cohen said.

 

 

http://www.baseballamerica.com/business/driveline-turns-data-solutions/#lQZIlufPAwXOcQJV.97

 

 

Websites don’t have that info. What really helps is a hitting coach and something like HitTrax or a bat sensor that measures approach angle. For a college guy who is an OK hitter . . . (Mississippi State’s) Brent Rooker is a great example. He’s a guy who has been a decent hitter. Now he’s focused on launch angle. I know his offseason coach. He told him, “This doesn’t make any sense. You’re killing the ball and you’re a great athlete. You have to hit the ball in the air.” It’s about a guy using that technology and understanding it. It’s about, “Try this. Try this swing pattern. Does that work? No? OK. That doesn’t feel good.” It’s about doing that while monitoring it. Now Rooker is killing the Southeastern Conference. We’re going to start seeing that with hitters.

 

[terrydactyls]

Is there a " Draft Pool For Dummies" available anywhere? I do not understand all this "sign under slot" stuff. If I were the first overall pick, and I know that the first pick is assigned a $7.7M amount, why would I sign for less? Or have the Twins contacted the top 100 players on their draft board already and agreed to a signing amount? I am missing something. Please help.

[AZTwin]

Is there a " Draft Pool For Dummies" available anywhere? I do not understand all this "sign under slot" stuff. If I were the first overall pick, and I know that the first pick is assigned a $7.7M amount, why would I sign for less? Or have the Twins contacted the top 100 players on their draft board already and agreed to a signing amount? I am missing something. Please help.

Because you risk falling in the draft to a lessor slot amount. You come to an agreement with the team stating that you'll sign for x amount if they take you at 1-1, which should be above the slot where they think they might fall but less than the slot at 1-1.

[terrydactyls]

Because you risk falling in the draft to a lessor slot amount. You come to an agreement with the team stating that you'll sign for x amount if they take you at 1-1, which should be above the slot where they think they might fall but less than the slot at 1-1.

So if I have the 7th pick, I need to have pre-arranged agreements with about a dozen players to make it work?

[nater79a]

 

So if I have the 7th pick, I need to have pre-arranged agreements with about a dozen players to make it work?

 

No, just the one player.

 

Maybe a real-world scenario might help explain it:

 

Shane Baz is a H.S. pitcher from Texas that the Twins have reportedly expressed interest in.  Generally he's expected to go anywhere from the 8th to 14th overall pick.  The bonus for that range would be somewhere between $3.7 million to $4.8 million.

 

Now, let's say the Twins go to Baz (and his agents) and say "Look, Shane, we like Hunter Greene and Kyle Wright but you're not far behind in our eyes.  If we take you at 1-1 would you sign for $6 million?".  If he says no then you just pass and move on.  If he says yes, then Baz makes maybe 1 to 2.5  million more that he would have if he was taken later. Also, the Twins save about $1.7 million in slot money since they're not paying a full $7.7 million in bonus for 1-1. Win-win for both sides.

 

The Twins can then use some of the savings to cut a better deal with someone in the #35 or #37 picks (give the player more than slot).  Or, they could sweeten the pot for a H.S. player in the 10th round that fell in the draft because he told teams he was intent on going to college.   It just gives the Twins more leverage through the rest of the draft as far as working with the bonus money.

Edited May 28, 2017 by nater79a

[Oldgoat_MN]

 

No, just the one player.

 

Maybe a real-world scenario might help explain it:

 

Shane Baz is a H.S. pitcher from Texas that the Twins have reportedly expressed interest in.  Generally he's expected to go anywhere from the 8th to 14th overall pick.  The bonus for that range would be somewhere between $3.7 million to $4.8 million.

 

Now, let's say the Twins go to Baz (and his agents) and say "Look, Shane, we like Hunter Greene and Kyle Wright but you're not far behind in our eyes.  If we take you at 1-1 would you sign for $6 million?".  If he says no then you just pass and move on.  If he says yes, then Baz makes maybe 1 to 2.5  million more that he would have if he was taken later. Also, the Twins save about $1.7 million in slot money since they're not paying a full $7.7 million in bonus for 1-1. Win-win for both sides.

 

The Twins can then use some of the savings to cut a better deal with someone in the #35 or #37 picks (give the player more than slot).  Or, they could sweeten the pot for a H.S. player in the 10th round that fell in the draft because he told teams he was intent on going to college.   It just gives the Twins more leverage through the rest of the draft as far as working with the bonus money.

Excellent description. Except that if he is likely to make between $3.7 and $4.8 million he would probably sign for $5 million.

Um, I would,

[nater79a]

 

Excellent description. Except that if he is likely to make between $3.7 and $4.8 million he would probably sign for $5 million.

Um, I would,

 

For sure.  I was just throwing out the 6 million (something in the middle) for explanation purposes.

[terrydactyls]

For sure.  I was just throwing out the 6 million (something in the middle) for explanation purposes.

Thanks. I think my senile citizen brain understands now. And to think I was in Finance for most of my working life. DUH!!!

[Will]

The number 2 pick is not much less than the number 1 pick in slot money. There is one player Cincinnati is hoping the Twins pass on.