Article: Trust The Process And The Stats

[ThejacKmp]

 

 Mauer has played 3 more seasons than Morneau did with the Twins but Morneau still has more RBI.

 

I listen until you say Morneau had more RBI. That can't be the crux of a well-presented argument. Morneau hit behind Mauer his entire career, Mauer hit behind Luis Castillos and Nick Puntos. RBI are utterly meaningless. Morneau had a 120 OPS+. (I know this isn’t the grandmother of stats but it’s an interesting quick way to look at it)

Not sure Puckett is real either. If you go by OPS, Mauer has a 127 and Puckett a 124. And that's with Puckett not having a downslope of his career because of Glaucoma. If you take just the first 12 years of Mauer's career his OPS is up to 129. I think it's hard to make a convincing argument Puckett is better than Mauer - especially when you consider how differently bullpens are used these days. Mauer faces tough lefties later in games, not starters on their 4th time through a lineup. Or that Mauer caught 120+ games his first ten years, much harder than playing CF.

 

Tony Oliva is interesting too. He’s at a 131 OPS+. That again doesn’t include catching/concussions/relievers who throw 100 in the 8th etc. Ditto for Bob Allison. And Kent Hrbek (128 OPS+).  I’m not saying Mauer is for sure better than all of these guys (except Morneau) just that none of them are for sure better.

 

If we’re go to ranks, I’m comfortable saying that Harmon Killebrew is for sure the best hitter in Twins history. Carew is only a 131 OPS but I’m willing to say he’s unequivocally better because he did it for 19 years which is just insane.

 

After that, I’m not sure you can say that Mauer isn’t #3. You can make a good argument for Puckett or Oliva and a stretchier argument for a Hrbek or an Allison. But to me it’s Mauer and I can’t see how someone could call me a fool for thinking that.

 

 

 

[Mr. Brooks]

We've seen hot months here and there from Joe the last couple of years.

I'm going to have to see this hold up for a few months before I think much of it.

[ThejacKmp]

 

Wow. I guess we are just going to have to disagree there. Same number of RBI in half the AB. Just saying.

 

Again, RBIs are a stat you should stop using. They don't prove anything other than "This guy hits with guys on base in front of him." Also RBI does not equal good hitter.

[ThejacKmp]

 

That would be a great deal for the Twins, unless he's blocking the next Justin Mourneau, which isn't currently the case, or if management thinks Sano needs to play 1B, but note that Fangraphs today rates Sano FIRST among all AL 3Bs in defensive runs saved.

 

Agreed. Unless Sano needs to play 1B and the Twins already have someone at DH, if Mauer puts up an 800-820 OPS playing mostly against righties, he's worth well more than that. I'd feel comfortable going $8 mill a year on a series of 1 year deals. Maybe his brother will be manager by then?

[by jiminy]

 

i used to decry the ridiculous salaries for sports stars. then, many years ago, a friend changed my perspective. "the money is there," he said. "the alternative is ownership getting it all."

I agree, I'd much prefer the money go to the players than to the owners.

 

Of course I'd prefer even more to have lower ticket prices, lower parking rates, cheaper beer, and NO STADIUM SUBSIDIES. Once you've been fleeced, who the money goes to is a minor concern.

[Mike Sixel]

Didn't Mike Fraser law predict this, based on April numbers, on this site? We should all be happy when Mauer is hitting.....

[ThejacKmp]

 

More importantly, he takes up a position the Twins really need to get playing time for players taht should be up in the major leagues.  I get the Twins are not going to eat a $23 million contract and having Mauer on the team helps a bit at the gate and is an all-time Twins player.  But there is no denying the team would have one more leg up on rebuilding without him.  

 

Who is he blocking? Sano is fine at 3B and Vargas has not seized the DH job so it's not like there is no spot for him. There's no one in the high minors being blocked at 1B (or 3B if you want Sano at 1B). Not Park. Maybe Palka but he isn't doing anything in AAA that makes you want him up.

 

That could change in a year or two with Lewin Diaz or however the Gordon/Vielma/Dozier/Polanco pileup shakes out but for now, he blocks no one.

 

The Twins are in first place. They are better with Mauer playing against righties. He absolutely deserves his roster spot.

[ThejacKmp]

 

One thing I think is lost in all the criticism of Mauer... what would the Twins have done with that extra money? How many fans would have left if they hadn't re-signed him in his prime? 23 million dollars would have been good enough for what, 2 Ricky Nolascos? The contract had to be signed, both for baseball and PR purposes, and hasn't really negatively impacted the Twins' payroll as much as some people allege. 

I'm glad he isn't too old to bring on a good season now, to boot, mostly because that means I might still have a little bit of gas in the tank too. 

 

Target Field is the house that Mauer Built. They built that stadium so they could afford to keep him.

[mudcat14]

People are gonna hate on the contract for the simple fact that he hasn't produced nearly as well since he signed it.  In his 1st 7 years prior to the contract, he was a career .327 hitter with an .888 OPS and multiple Gold Gloves.  In the 7 years since signing the deal he's a .287 / .777 hitter with every glove made entirely from cowhide.

[yarnivek1972]

Again, RBIs are a stat you should stop using. They don't prove anything other than "This guy hits with guys on base in front of him." Also RBI does not equal good hitter.

Mauer has hit 3rd the overwhelming majority of his career, behind some pretty good table setters, at times. So, he does come up with runners on. He does possess very good numbers with RISP, which begs the question why so few RBI. My theory is his approach. He's more than happy to slap a single the other way. That doesn't always get the run in though.

 

While RBI may not be the best number to judge hitters, nor is it the only number I use. I do not believe they are "utterly meaningless". Last time I checked the object of the game was to outscore your opponent.

 

Would it help if I also note that Vargas' OPS is still higher than Mauer's? And also was in 2 of the last 3 years.

[Seth Stohs]

 

We've seen hot months here and there from Joe the last couple of years.
I'm going to have to see this hold up for a few months before I think much of it.

 

I know, or I assume, that you aren't saying this, but so many out there seem to think and expect Mauer to get back to the days of hitting .340.. That isn't going to happen, but if he can be in the .280/.360/.440 (.800), that would be good. 

[jimmer]

From 2010 to 2013 (the pre-concussion years) Mauer's play was worth an average value of 27M. It was going very well. His wRC+ was 135 or higher in 3 of those 4 years.

 

Then the concussion happened.

Edited May 24, 2017 by jimmer

[Mr. Brooks]

I know, or I assume, that you aren't saying this, but so many out there seem to think and expect Mauer to get back to the days of hitting .340.. That isn't going to happen, but if he can be in the .280/.360/.440 (.800), that would be good.

I would be thrilled with an .800 OPS from Joe. I just don't see that happening though. This is 4 straight years in the .720 to .750 range. I think at this point we need to accept that is who he is now.

My point being that one good month does noting to change my view of what he is now. This isn't the first time he's had a hot month the last few seasons.

[Seth Stohs]

 

I would be thrilled with an .800 OPS from Joe. I just don't see that happening though. This is 4 straight years in the .720 to .750 range. I think at this point we need to accept that is who he is now.
My point being that one good month does noting to change my view of what he is now. This isn't the first time he's had a hot month the last few seasons.

 

Before his quad injury in mid-August last year, his OPS for the season was .801... With proper rest, I think he could do it... 

[yarnivek1972]

I know, or I assume, that you aren't saying this, but so many out there seem to think and expect Mauer to get back to the days of hitting .340.. That isn't going to happen, but if he can be in the .280/.360/.440 (.800), that would be good.

Joe Mauer hasn't slugged .390 since 2013, let alone .440. Are you really convinced he's capable of that anymore?

[ThejacKmp]

 

Mauer has hit 3rd the overwhelming majority of his career, behind some pretty good table setters, at times. So, he does come up with runners on. He does possess very good numbers with RISP, which begs the question why so few RBI. My theory is his approach. He's more than happy to slap a single the other way. That doesn't always get the run in though.

While RBI may not be the best number to judge hitters, nor is it the only number I use. I do not believe they are "utterly meaningless". Last time I checked the object of the game was to outscore your opponent.

Would it help if I also note that Vargas' OPS is still higher than Mauer's? And also was in 2 of the last 3 years.

 

Who are these great table setters? The best was Span and after that it's a bunch of weak hitting middle infielders. His approach likely has something to do with it and shows why RBI is a dumb way to look at it. Mauer's OBP has been insanely valuable and shouldn't be dismissed because he doesn't fit the 1986 version of valuable.

 

RBIs aren't "not the best number"- they are literally useless. Meaningless. Crap. They mean nothing. If you want RBIs to matter in judging an individual player (that is what we're doing, we're not saying "what helps a team win"), you need to find some other variable: number of attempts, OBP with guys in scoring position etc. Never use RBI in an argument, it will never ever help. 

 

Finally, that doesn't help. Kennys Vargas has 66 at bats and is the definition of short sample. Same with last year's 152 at bats that were buoyed by a hot streak against September pitching on the worst team in the majors. You're cherrypicking. Mauer had a slow start to this year but as the article shows, his peripheral stats are very good and he has bounced back considerably over the past three weeks. It's early. He may be down but he's had a great BB to K rate, has hit the ball hard and has a low BABIP. He'll trend up.

 

The Mauer hate is so overblown.

[yarnivek1972]

Before his quad injury in mid-August last year, his OPS for the season was .801... With proper rest, I think he could do it...

That's the thing though. He's older and his body is simply breaking down faster now than 5-10 years ago. We old guys know all about that. Nagging injuries are the new normal for him.

[Seth Stohs]

 

Joe Mauer hasn't slugged .390 since 2013, let alone .440. Are you really convinced he's capable of that anymore?

 

Probably not, but he certainly could... That said, he'll need a bunch more doubles.

[ThejacKmp]

 

That's the thing though. He's older and his body is simply breaking down faster now than 5-10 years ago. We old guys know all about that. Nagging injuries are the new normal for him.

 

But this year he'll be getting time off as he is rested against lefty starters. That's 30% more rest (and the loss of at bats with the least likelihood of success). He should be able to stay healthier. The Twins also have options should he need a few days off - he won't have to play through things and watch his numbers drop. 

Edited May 24, 2017 by ThejacKmp

[USAFChief]

I'll never understand how someone can watch baseball and then state "RBI are meaningless."

 

Never.

[Taildragger8791]

 

But this year he'll be getting time off as he is rested against lefty starters. That's 30% more rest (and the loss of at bats with the least likelihood of success). He should be able to stay healthier. The Twins also have options should he need a few days off - he won't have to play through things and watch his numbers drop. 

 

He's on pace for 147 games played this year, so it doesn't look like he's getting rested or platooned all that much. Maybe that'll change if Park forces a promotion, but that doesn't look to be happening anytime soon.

 

Edit: For context, that would be a tie for the 2nd most games he's ever played in a season.

Edited May 24, 2017 by Taildragger8791

[jimmer]

Mauer has started 33 of the Twins' 42 games going into today.

Edited May 24, 2017 by jimmer

[ThejacKmp]

 

He's on pace for 147 games played this year, so it doesn't look like he's getting rested or platooned all that much. Maybe that'll change if Park forces a promotion, but that doesn't look to be happening anytime soon.

 

Edit: For context, that would be a tie for the 2nd most games he's ever played in a season.

 

Yeah but he's tailed off playing against lefties since Vargas has come up. Before that the Twins right handed 1B option (assuming they wanted Sano to play mostly at 3B for continuity) was Gimenez. Now the Twins have a real option and they have been sitting him against lefties the past ten days or so. I imagine that will continue now that the Twins have Vargas.

[yarnivek1972]

Yeah but he's tailed off playing against lefties since Vargas has come up. Before that the Twins right handed 1B option (assuming they wanted Sano to play mostly at 3B for continuity) was Gimenez. Now the Twins have a real option and they have been sitting him against lefties the past ten days or so. I imagine that will continue now that the Twins have Vargas.

Considering that Vargas hasn't hit lhp this year yet, I actually doubt that will happen anytime soon. And given that Paul Molitor has apparently decided that Kepler is a platoon player, I'm not sure what the plan going forward will be. Most likely vs most lhp until something changes (like Vargas hitting lhp better for example) probably see something like:

 

c Gimenez

1b Mauer

2b Dozier

3b Escobar

ss Polanco

lf Rosario

cf Buxton

rf Grossman

dh Sano

 

With Sano, Mauer and Escobar kinda rotating the DH/1B/3B spots.

[yarnivek1972]

Who are these great table setters? The best was Span and after that it's a bunch of weak hitting middle infielders. His approach likely has something to do with it and shows why RBI is a dumb way to look at it. Mauer's OBP has been insanely valuable and shouldn't be dismissed because he doesn't fit the 1986 version of valuable.

 

RBIs aren't "not the best number"- they are literally useless. Meaningless. Crap. They mean nothing. If you want RBIs to matter in judging an individual player (that is what we're doing, we're not saying "what helps a team win"), you need to find some other variable: number of attempts, OBP with guys in scoring position etc. Never use RBI in an argument, it will never ever help.

 

Finally, that doesn't help. Kennys Vargas has 66 at bats and is the definition of short sample. Same with last year's 152 at bats that were buoyed by a hot streak against September pitching on the worst team in the majors. You're cherrypicking. Mauer had a slow start to this year but as the article shows, his peripheral stats are very good and he has bounced back considerably over the past three weeks. It's early. He may be down but he's had a great BB to K rate, has hit the ball hard and has a low BABIP. He'll trend up.

 

The Mauer hate is so overblown.

I'm cherrypicking?

 

This isn't personal. I don't "hate" Joe Mauer. I don't like that he's a shell of his former self and I don't like that he is, as far as I am concerned, taking at bats away from Vargas. I view Vargas as a better hitter at the respective spots in their careers. Many on this forum disagree, but the numbers from the day Vargas hit the majors up to today are on my side.

Edited May 24, 2017 by yarnivek1972

[ThejacKmp]

 

I'm cherrypicking?

This isn't personal. I don't "hate" Joe Mauer. I don't like that he's a shell of his former self and I don't like that he is, as far as I am concerned, taking at bats away from Vargas. I view Vargas as a better hitter at the respective spots in their careers. Many on this forum disagree, but the numbers from the day Vargas hit the majors up to today are on my side.

 

Hate has multiple meanings. I don't mean hate like you would spit on him if you saw him in the streets. I meant that you hate on his game. I think that's pretty obvious from the context if you actually read the whole thing.

 

You are, you found an essentially meaningless stat to use as an argument rather than examining the full picture. I can tell you haven't really looked at the numbers by you last sentence. If you looked at Vargas's numbers you'd see that his MLB OBP+ is 105, decidedly average. Take a look at his minor league numbers: .809 OPS in AAA, .849 in AA. This isn't to say that Kennys Vargas is a bad player, just that you're hyping him a little aggressively. 

 

I think you'd also benefit from going back through this forum. You keep switching the argument and ignoring the vast majority of what people say to focus on some small detail you can nitpick.

Edited May 24, 2017 by ThejacKmp

[ThejacKmp]

 

Considering that Vargas hasn't hit lhp this year yet, I actually doubt that will happen anytime soon. And given that Paul Molitor has apparently decided that Kepler is a platoon player, I'm not sure what the plan going forward will be. Most likely vs most lhp until something changes (like Vargas hitting lhp better for example) probably see something like:

c Gimenez
1b Mauer
2b Dozier
3b Escobar
ss Polanco
lf Rosario
cf Buxton
rf Grossman
dh Sano

With Sano, Mauer and Escobar kinda rotating the DH/1B/3B spots.

 

Vargas has hit better against lefties that righties in his career. This year is the definition of a small sample size.

 

Monitor has also shown no desire to move Sano from 3B and play him extensively at 1B. The last time Sano played 1B was on April 22nd.

 

We are much more likely to see Sano playing 3B with some DH on days off and see Mauer, Vargas and Grossman playing the vast majority of the time at 1B/DH.

[Brock Beauchamp]

 

Don't get me wrong, I've got nothing against Mauer and his contributions to this franchise.  And I'm definitely rooting for him going forward.

 

But he had a great month in April 2016, and again in August 2016.  And both times, I think we got treated to articles similar to this one.  (Although the addition of Statcast data is nice this time around!)

 

I think both sides of the issue can get a little tiring.  (Admittedly, I tend to avoid mainstream media where I imagine the bulk of the anti-Mauer sentiment appears, so sometimes the Twins Daily rebuttal can seem like an over-correction.)

It's disappointing how prevalent the Mauer hate is in less stat-centric circles. A few days ago, I was reading the comments section of I Love Minnesota Sports' Facebook page. They posed the question "Who was the better Twin, Hunter or Mauer?"

 

Some people said Mauer, which is probably the easy and right answer. A few said Hunter but pointed out his clubhouse leadership skills. I'm fine with that.

 

But a bunch - and I mean a bunch - went after Mauer hard. They downplayed everything Joe was good at and talked about how Hunter was better at everything. Most threw in potshots at Joe over the contract and even his personality (weak, lazy, whatever).

 

And that is just an idiotic opinion to have on Mauer. We all gripe about his faults at times but he's one of the best players to ever wear a Twins uniform. That can't really be disputed but some people out there act like he was Nick Punto in his prime, not a record-breaking catcher who was at the top of the sport for several years (it's hard to say Hunter was ever at the "top of the sport", he was a very very good player, not elite).

 

So, yeah, it's not really an overcorrection.

[Brock Beauchamp]

 

I'll never understand how someone can watch baseball and then state "RBI are meaningless."

Never.

It's an overstatement. RBI are extremely valuable. RBI are also an extremely poor evaluation tool.

 

Guys who hit lots of home runs collect lots of RBI. It's that simple.

 

Mauer walks an incredible amount in RBI situations, which further deteriorates his number. The best outcome of an RBI situation is to get that RBI. The second best outcome is to get on base.

 

In that regard, yeah, I guess Mauer isn't the greatest outcome player, he's simply the second-greatest outcome player.

[yarnivek1972]

Hate has multiple meanings. I don't mean hate like you would spit on him if you saw him in the streets. I meant that you hate on his game. I think that's pretty obvious from the context if you actually read the whole thing.

 

You are, you found an essentially meaningless stat to use as an argument rather than examining the full picture. I can tell you haven't really looked at the numbers by you last sentence. If you looked at Vargas's numbers you'd see that his MLB OBP+ is 105, decidedly average. Take a look at his minor league numbers: .809 OPS in AAA, .849 in AA. This isn't to say that Kennys Vargas is a bad player, just that you're hyping him a little aggressively.

 

I think you'd also benefit from going back through this forum. You keep switching the argument and ignoring the vast majority of what people say to focus on some small detail you can nitpick.

 

Vargas' career OPS is .751. The BEST season Mauer has had since the start of Vargas' MLB career is .752. I'm too lazy to do the math to figure it out exactly, but overall since the start of 2014 it's lower than .751. So, please explain how that statement is incorrect. Perhaps you should check the numbers.