Article: Will Hunter Greene Haunt The Twins?

[Oldgoat_MN]

 

As a pitcher, ya a #3 maybe a #2 so a 2.5-3.5 WIN pitcher.  At the plate, his bat is getting a future 60 grade with a 70 grade raw power, and 60 game power, which would make him a 3.5-4 WIN offensive player

Very interesting way to look at it....

[nicksaviking]

 

As a pitcher, ya a #3 maybe a #2 so a 2.5-3.5 WIN pitcher.  At the plate, his bat is getting a future 60 grade with a 70 grade raw power, and 60 game power, which would make him a 3.5-4 WIN offensive player

 

3.5-4.0 is only like a top 40-50 offensive player in the game. Plus WAR gets adjusted backward for 1st basemen. I think I'd shoot for someone with more potential. Plus he'd be a lefty hitting at TF, any power grade is going to have to be reduced significantly.

 

And we're talking about a position that can be filled by just about any player. It's become a position that even if it isn't filled internally can be filled with fairly affordable free agents.

[Bob Sacamento]

 

I don't think you can trade recently drafted players either. There's (at least used to be) a waiting period of 6 or 12 months after signing.

There used to be a waiting period but they created the Trea Turner rule after the Nats-Pads-Rays deal in which everyone knew that Turner was the PTBNL but he still had to remain a Padre until the magic day.  That rule has already been used since in the Padres-Red Sox deal for Kimbrel where the Padres acquired Logan Allen (a 8th Rd pick but 1st Rd talent in 2015 Draft) who had been drafted in June 2015 and traded 5 months later.

[Taildragger8791]

 

What percentage of drafted players make the major leagues?

-- NCAA senior players drafted by a Major League Baseball (MLB) team: Less than eleven in 100, or 10.5 percent.

 

-- High school senior players eventually drafted by an MLB team: About one in 200, or 0.5 percent.

 

Just sayin' :  temper your expectations...    

 

There is likely a lot of bias in that stat. What if you limit it to players picked in the first couple of rounds?

 

College players have been much more sorted out for MLB potential by the time they're drafted, so there's some selection bias there. High school players are much more of an unknown and there are WAY more of them to draft than college players, with a much larger variance in talent.

 

So yeah, it should be pretty expected that a random college player is more talented than a random high school player, and that talent is more of a known commodity due to more exposure to scouting evaluations.

[Dr. Evil]

I would take one of the top two college pitchers over a high school "thrower." Not even close in my mind. High 90's guys are neat. Pitchers win ball games.

[Thrylos]

There is another thing that the Twins have to look at, which has not been discussed:

 

11 = the current number of LHSP in the Twins organization (above Rookie leagues)

1 of which (Santiago) is a MLB FA past this season, and 4 (Turley, Hurlbut, Wheeler, Tracey) are minor league free agents after this season.   This leaves 6 under contract for 2018, above Rookie leagues:

 

Mejia

Wilk

Gonsalves

Wells

Thorpe

Carlini

 

Thus is the sorry state of the LHSP in this organization and drafting McKay will go long ways fixing it.

Edited May 23, 2017 by Thrylos

[frightwig]

 

What percentage of drafted players make the major leagues?

-- NCAA senior players drafted by a Major League Baseball (MLB) team: Less than eleven in 100, or 10.5 percent.

 

-- High school senior players eventually drafted by an MLB team: About one in 200, or 0.5 percent.

 

Just sayin' :  temper your expectations...    

 

Also, in the history of the draft there have been just 3 high school pitchers taken at #1.

 

David Clyde, 1973

Brien Taylor, 1991

Brady Aiken, 2014

 

A small sample, but one might say that there's a reason for that--and the results of those few picks have not been encouraging.

 

Clyde was a hyped phenom (3 ER in 148 IP, and 5 no-hitters!) from a Houston high school who went straight to the majors because the Rangers owner was desperate for an attendance draw. In his third season, he had the first of two shoulder injuries and never developed.

 

Taylor had two good seasons at A+/AA, but then hurt his shoulder in a fight and never recovered. He didn't pitch above Class A again.

 

Aiken was picked 1st by the Astros but didn't sign--partly because there were already reports of elbow inflammation. The next winter, he had to come out of his first start with a baseball academy because of elbow pain; the next month, he had Tommy John surgery. The Indians drafted him with the 17th pick in 2015, anyway, but he's been struggling in the minors. This season at Class A, he has a 4.46 ERA with a 7.0 BB/9 and 5.4 K/9.

 

Here's a list of high school pitchers taken in the regular 1st round, ordered by rWAR, with at least 20 rWAR career--that seems like a fair cut-off for "very good career."

 

Roy Halladay, 1995 (17th pick)

C. C. Sabathia, 1998 (20th)

Frank Tanana, 1971 (13th)

Clayton Kershaw, 2006 (7th)

Zack Greinke, 2002 (6th)

Dwight Gooden, 1982 (5th)

Cole Hamels, 2002 (17th)

Jon Matlack, 1967 (4th)

Adam Wainwright, 2002 (29th)

Josh Beckett, 1999 (2nd)

Rick Rhoden, 1971 (20th)

Bruce Hurst, 1976 (22nd)

Chris Carpenter, 1993 (15th)

Rick Sutcliffe, 1974 (21st)

Matt Cain, 2002 (25th)

Madison Bumgarner, 2007 (10th)

Alex Fernandez, 1988 (24th)

Kerry Wood, 1995 (4th)

Mike Morgan, 1978 (4th)

Gary Nolan, 1966 (13th)

Joe Coleman, 1965 (3rd)

Bill Gullickson, 1977 (2nd)

Scott Kazmir, 2002 (17th)

Jon Garland, 1997 (10th)

J. R. Richard, 1969 (2nd)

John Danks, 2003 (9th)

Scott McGregor, 1972 (14th)

 

That's 27 pitchers, 13 drafted with a Top 10 pick; 16 of the 27 (from Bumgarner on up) have more than 30 rWAR. There are a handful of guys drafted since Bumgarner in 2007 who may be starting to emerge as good pitchers, after several years of development, but we'll see. I think Jose Fernandez (2011, 14th) was the only clear star, but of course he's gone, now. Rick Porcello (2007, 27th) probably will get on the list, although he has been a below-average pitcher for most of his career, until his breakout Cy Young season last year at age 27, too late for the Tigers to reap the rewards of drafting him.

 

So, that's the history. Once in awhile, clubs find a high school phenom who isn't derailed early on by injury or personal problems. Some of them might not get hurt or get into cocaine or alcohol until after they're stars! Some might even develop into stars and stay with their original team for most of their career! You hope to find the next Roy Halladay, who had his breakout season at age 25 and stayed with the Blue Jays through age 32. Better yet, maybe, Clayton Kershaw and you can afford to keep him! That's the hope, but the odds are long--especially long with young pitchers.

[Vanimal46]

 

You can't trade draft picks in baseball. 

 

Though that would be awesome if they could.... 

[Vanimal46]

Call it stubbornness, but I'm still all in on Greene. If Falvine are the pitching whisperers like they were touted as they were hired, I'd like to give them an 18 year old to let develop him as they see fit. 

[caninatl04]

Any chance that the Padres could have a Rick Spielman moment in their war room on draft day and trade up to #1?

Remember the Rule 5 draft? The Twins moved from first to seventh for, well, nothing. So, sure, maybe the Twins will trade down from 1st to 3rd for, well, nothing. Maybe the FA will even throw in a prospect for the privilege of trading down for nothing.

[Sweetwater]

Green being 3 plus years younger than Wright is huge for me. Wright is still going to need 2 years of development time, most likely. He doesn't have an elite pitch. Just 4 "good" ones. He could grow in that aspect, but Greene is more likely to grow given projectability and age and talent.

 

The way I see it, there are pitchers like Wright in every draft. Greene may not be generational, but he's far more rare. His feel for pitching isn't a shot in the dark, etc..I would hate to pass on him.

Edited May 23, 2017 by Sweetwater

[Thrylos]

 

Remember the Rule 5 draft? The Twins moved from first to seventh for, well, nothing. So, sure, maybe the Twins will trade down from 1st to 3rd for, well, nothing. Maybe the FA will even throw in a prospect for the privilege of trading down for nothing.

 

Nah, I think that the Twins will trade the first round pick for 2 second rounders, international pool $, and next years' first rounder.

 

Wrong. Sport.

[mlhouse]

I think you take Hunter Greene.   All of the draft picks have risk so you take the absolute best upside.

 

The only issue I have with him is then you dont leave him in the minor leagues for 8 more seasons.  Move him rapidly through the system with a target date to MLB when he is 22.

[drjim]

Green being 3 plus years younger than Wright is huge for me. Wright is still going to need 2 years of development time, most likely. He doesn't have an elite pitch. Just 4 "good" ones. He could grow in that aspect, but Greene is more likely to grow given projectability and age and talent.

 

The way I see it, there are pitchers like Wright in every draft. Greene may not be generational, but he's far more rare. His feel for pitching isn't a shot in the dark, etc..I would hate to pass on him.

Wright seems to be on track to break in next year.

[DocBauer]

Said it before but I think it bears repeating: IMO, when there isn't that ONE GUY that is a no-brainer,I believe you pick the guy with the highest ceiling that ALSO seems the safest choice.

 

There is just no way to know who is going to wash out, who is going to make it or who is going to be a star 4 or 5 years from now. But please, please, when that time comes, can we refrain from the "we should have drafted" talk?

[jimmer]

They better take Greene.

[chpettit19]

I know it's fun to think of what a 17 year old throwing 100 could become, but I am yet to see a report from any scout or baseball publication that suggests any of his secondary pitches are going to be above average (I've seen a couple that say he could develop his slider into slightly above average). That's not a starting pitcher in the bigs. As I've seen others say on these threads, I don't want a closer with pick 1:1. I think that's really what he comes down to. Can he develop a secondary pitch, or preferably 2? 100 is fancy and fun, but you cannot be a major league starter if you can't get hitters to worry about a pitch other than your fastball. If the Twins think they can teach him how to throw some legit secondary pitches he's the guy. You plan for the year off he's going to need for Tommy John at some point early in his career (I'm only partly kidding about that), and force him to rely on his secondary stuff in the low minors instead of just blowing gas.

 

[drivlikejehu]

This thread shows that a lot of posters don't understand how much of a long-shot Greene is. 

 

Wright is far from a lock, but he has proven the ability to handle a far larger workload, face better competition, and throw quality secondary pitches. His age is actually a plus because he has pitched for several years without injury, whereas there is no telling whether the Greene will or not. 

 

It's obviously wrong to say the higher upside pick is always preferable. No team would ever take a 5% chance at a 70 player instead of an 80% chance of a 60 player. 

 

Pitching is a numbers game - you need a lot of them because of attrition. You don't build up depth through long-shots. Sure, occasionally one hits, but a club needs a steady stream of good pitchers. The best amateur pitcher is one with both a high upside and a good chance to reach it. Wright has that. Greene just has the upside.

[drjim]

This thread shows that a lot of posters don't understand how much of a long-shot Greene is.

 

Wright is far from a lock, but he has proven the ability to handle a far larger workload, face better competition, and throw quality secondary pitches. His age is actually a plus because he has pitched for several years without injury, whereas there is no telling whether the Greene will or not.

 

It's obviously wrong to say the higher upside pick is always preferable. No team would ever take a 5% chance at a 70 player instead of an 80% chance of a 60 player.

 

Pitching is a numbers game - you need a lot of them because of attrition. You don't build up depth through long-shots. Sure, occasionally one hits, but a club needs a steady stream of good pitchers. The best amateur pitcher is one with both a high upside and a good chance to reach it. Wright has that. Greene just has the upside.

This is one way I think national prospect guys do a slight disservice. They can identify a ceiling well but don't do the best at communicating risk and probability. Some of that is certaonly folded into prospect rankings.

[chpettit19]

 

This is one way I think national prospect guys do a slight disservice. They can identify a ceiling well but don't do the best at communicating risk and probability. Some of that is certaonly folded into prospect rankings.

 

This thread shows that a lot of posters don't understand how much of a long-shot Greene is. 

 

Wright is far from a lock, but he has proven the ability to handle a far larger workload, face better competition, and throw quality secondary pitches. His age is actually a plus because he has pitched for several years without injury, whereas there is no telling whether the Greene will or not. 

 

It's obviously wrong to say the higher upside pick is always preferable. No team would ever take a 5% chance at a 70 player instead of an 80% chance of a 60 player. 

 

Pitching is a numbers game - you need a lot of them because of attrition. You don't build up depth through long-shots. Sure, occasionally one hits, but a club needs a steady stream of good pitchers. The best amateur pitcher is one with both a high upside and a good chance to reach it. Wright has that. Greene just has the upside.

 

Was just watching MLB Tonight on MLB Network between innings and they were just talking about this. It's hard for a scout first and then an organization afterwards to explain why they take a guy with less velocity and more pitchability. It's part of the struggle of the information age. We all know how hard everyone throws and it's super cool to say our guys throw 100, but if they don't know where it's going they have no future in baseball. But if a scout goes in and tells his bosses they should take the kid throwing 92 with control over the kid throwing 100 with projectability he won't have a job for long. And if the Twins take Wright over Greene they're going to have fans upset because they had the chance to take the 17 year old throwing 100 who had an article in SI all about him.

[Taildragger8791]

 

Wright is far from a lock, but he has proven the ability to handle a far larger workload, face better competition, and throw quality secondary pitches. His age is actually a plus because he has pitched for several years without injury, whereas there is no telling whether the Greene will or not. 

 

Just saying...Gibson, Wimmers, and Jay were all college draft picks and either underwent Tommy John or had other injury issues within the first couple of years. Jay was shut down early last year due to soreness and still isn't ready to pitch yet this year. Not much word on when he will return either. Meanwhile, Stewart was the high school pick and has overall been pretty healthy. So I don't think there's ever any guarantee of future health.

[Will]

I understand the Cincinnati Reds Scouts were present in droves at Kyle Wright's recent game he pitched. Could it be possible they would offer, prior to the formal draft, more Bonus than the Twins might offer?

[drivlikejehu]

 

Just saying...Gibson, Wimmers, and Jay were all college draft picks and either underwent Tommy John or had other injury issues within the first couple of years. Jay was shut down early last year due to soreness and still isn't ready to pitch yet this year. Not much word on when he will return either. Meanwhile, Stewart was the high school pick and has overall been pretty healthy. So I don't think there's ever any guarantee of future health.

 

Gibson actually fell in the draft over health concerns, so that was a different situation, and Jay was just activated off the DL and apparently didn't suffer a major injury. But sure, college pitchers get hurt. Pitchers get hurt in general.

 

The odds are still better with a more advanced pitcher that has handled higher workloads.

[70charger]

 

I understand the Cincinnati Reds Scouts were present in droves at Kyle Wright's recent game he pitched. Could it be possible they would offer, prior to the formal draft, more Bonus than the Twins might offer?

 

Wouldn't matter. He has no leverage. No way he says no to 1:1.

[ALessKosherScott]

 

I know it's fun to think of what a 17 year old throwing 100 could become, but I am yet to see a report from any scout or baseball publication that suggests any of his secondary pitches are going to be above average (I've seen a couple that say he could develop his slider into slightly above average). That's not a starting pitcher in the bigs. As I've seen others say on these threads, I don't want a closer with pick 1:1. I think that's really what he comes down to. Can he develop a secondary pitch, or preferably 2? 100 is fancy and fun, but you cannot be a major league starter if you can't get hitters to worry about a pitch other than your fastball. If the Twins think they can teach him how to throw some legit secondary pitches he's the guy. You plan for the year off he's going to need for Tommy John at some point early in his career (I'm only partly kidding about that), and force him to rely on his secondary stuff in the low minors instead of just blowing gas.

 

I think outside of McKay's curveball, none of them have the secondary pitches or command where you look at them as a sure thing to be anything in the majors. And McKay's curve hides that his fastball isn't in the same galaxy as Wright's and Greene's. Even McKay's bat, which probably in a worst case is already major league quality, isn't all that safe because his only position is first base.

 

It comes down to who you project to develop another pitch, or more to the point who do you think you can work with to develop better pitches.

[kab21]

 

This is one way I think national prospect guys do a slight disservice. They can identify a ceiling well but don't do the best at communicating risk and probability. Some of that is certaonly folded into prospect rankings.

The problem with this is that numerous 'safe' players drafted in the top 10 busted. 

Top 10 picks bust all the time. College picks might be safer but that is usually balanced by the higher upside of HS pick.

 

I am undecided between Wright and Greene myself.

[drjim]

The problem with this is that numerous 'safe' players drafted in the top 10 busted.

 

Top 10 picks bust all the time. College picks might be safer but that is usually balanced by the higher upside of HS pick.

 

I am undecided between Wright and Greene myself.

Indeed there is no magic formula. All types bust all the time.

 

I'm pretty heavy Wright, but would find Greene acceptable.

[drjim]

Also, should add, I'm not on Wright over Greene because he's "safer" but because he's a really good prospect. He has a pretty good floor (as much as pitchers can) but he also has plenty of upside. He has the ingredients to be an ace.

[Blackjack]

 

There is just no way to know who is going to wash out, who is going to make it or who is going to be a star 4 or 5 years from now. But please, please, when that time comes, can we refrain from the "we should have drafted" talk?

 

Coulda, woulda, shoulda.  In every draft, whether its baseball, football, or basketball, there are players later in the draft that outperform higher picks. Athletic ability isn't everything, motivation, education, mindset, background, etc. all play a role in how successful a player will be. How many teams passed on Trout??

[kab21]

 

Also, should add, I'm not on Wright over Greene because he's "safer" but because he's a really good prospect. He has a pretty good floor (as much as pitchers can) but he also has plenty of upside. He has the ingredients to be an ace.

I feel the same way. Leaning Greene but I like Wright's upside and would be happy with either right now.