Article: Will Hunter Greene Haunt The Twins?

[nicksaviking]

 

This is one way I think national prospect guys do a slight disservice. They can identify a ceiling well but don't do the best at communicating risk and probability. Some of that is certaonly folded into prospect rankings.

 

I agree, but the lack of risk communication is universal among all types of prospects. If they were being rational, they wouldn't label anyone as 'safe'. Every player is 'un-safe' and unlikely to be even an average MLB player. So if no one is 'safe' and everyone is a 'risk' we're really just talking about degrees of those terms.

[ashbury]

I agree, but the lack of risk communication is universal among all types of prospects. If they were being rational, they wouldn't label anyone as 'safe'. Every player is 'un-safe' and unlikely to be even an average MLB player. So if no one is 'safe' and everyone is a 'risk' we're really just talking about degrees of those terms.

... at which point we label the guys at one end of the spectrum as "safe" and those at the other end "risky", simply for brevity.

[Bob Sacamento]

 

... at which point we label the guys at one end of the spectrum as "safe" and those at the other end "risky", simply for brevity.

more or less publications have been doing so in recent years, In the BA Prospect Handbook they've put not only the 20-80 scouting scale but have also added a Risk assessment of Low, Medium, High, and Extreme.

 

I am not a scout but from what publications I have seen

 

McKay as a LHP is a 45-50 now and a future 55-60 with low to medium risk

FB 50-55/55-60 

CV 40-45/55

COM  50/55-60

 

Hunter Greene is a 35-40 now and a future 65-70 with high to extreme risk

FB 65-70/75-80

CV 35-40/50

COM 40-45/50

 

Wright is a 45-50 now and a future 55-60 with medium risk

FB 55/60

CV 45-50/55-60

COM 45/50-55

[Thrylos]

 

Just saying...Gibson, Wimmers, and Jay were all college draft picks

 

Gibson and Wimmers were late round picks.  Both of them were the 7th College pitchers taken in their draft.

Jay was a reliever and his future has yet to be determined.

 

Cannot be compared to Wright or McKay.  Really.

[nicksaviking]

 

... at which point we label the guys at one end of the spectrum as "safe" and those at the other end "risky", simply for brevity.

 

Which still seems misleading to me. When comparing poisons we don't say that cyanide is safe simply because it's possibly less lethal than anthrax.

 

When these pundits use the word 'safe' I'm guessing there are way too many readers jumping to the conclusion that the guy is a near lock to be an average if not quality major leaguer when the likelihood is far from that.

[Mike Sixel]

Fangraphs generally puts current and future value grades on players. In the top x write ups, he talks about probabilities in words. If people think prospect lists there and BA don't include that, they must be reading different lists than I am.

[Taildragger8791]

 

Gibson and Wimmers were late round picks.  Both of them were the 7th College pitchers taken in their draft.

Jay was a reliever and his future has yet to be determined.

 

Cannot be compared to Wright or McKay.  Really.

 

I don't see what it matters if a guy is an early or late first round college draft pick with regards to expected health.

[ashbury]

Which still seems misleading to me. When comparing poisons we don't say that cyanide is safe simply because it's possibly less lethal than anthrax.

This makes it sound as though every prospect fails due to one cause or other.

 

Agreed, that the pundits ought to be doing a more careful job of explaining what is meant by risk. But I don't want to have to read a treatise in every prospect evaluation. What better term would you advocate than "safe"? Would "relatively safe" do the job?

 

 

[Twinsbar107]

No more than Mike Trout.......... I kid.

[jimmer]

 

This thread shows that a lot of posters don't understand how much of a long-shot Greene is. 

 

 

That's an interesting assumption.  

[nicksaviking]

This makes it sound as though every prospect fails due to one cause or other.

 

Agreed, that the pundits ought to be doing a more careful job of explaining what is meant by risk. But I don't want to have to read a treatise in every prospect evaluation. What better term would you advocate than "safe"? Would "relatively safe" do the job?

Just the word "safer" as it is clearly an indicator of comparison where as "safe" is a generally accepted adjective of clear definition.

 

I know it sounds like symantics but it isn't, in this case it is regularly being used to sway opinion. And to be clear, plenty of people here are using "safer".

 

And honestly, I'm 50/50 on Greene and Wright right now. I was heavily in Greene's camp a few weeks ago.

[Monkeypaws]

 

This thread shows that a lot of posters don't understand how much of a long-shot Greene is. 

 

 

Greene a longshot - hmm. Excellent makeup, great physique, baseball skills up the wazoo, electric arm, all in a 17 year old.

Longshot to be Cy Young, maybe, longshot unlike any other 18-21 year old, mmm, he looks more like a sure-shot to play MLB as an impact player to me.

My crystal ball is no better than anyone elses, but to call him a longshot is, well, a longshot.

 

Law of averages should eventually weigh in favor of a RH HS pitcher.

 

There are very few sure bets in the draft: I'd like to see the Twins roll the dice here - they have 2 other picks in the top 40. 

 

Cosmic tumblers are aligning....

[diehardtwinsfan]

 

I don't see what it matters if a guy is an early or late first round college draft pick with regards to expected health.

 

Sure, but using that logic, you wouldn't draft a pitcher... ever.  That doesn't work either, especially from a team that needs pitching, has the first overall pick, and the clear BPAs in the draft are pitchers.

[Taildragger8791]

 

Sure, but using that logic, you wouldn't draft a pitcher... ever.  That doesn't work either, especially from a team that needs pitching, has the first overall pick, and the clear BPAs in the draft are pitchers.

 

I'm not sure what you're talking about or what you think I said. The only point I made was to refute the idea that a college pitcher is somehow more of a sure thing to stay healthy than a high school pitcher just because he has more years of use on his arm without injury (yet). That's all I was ever saying. I understand why that idea makes sense logically but I'm not aware of any statistics which bear that out. And the recent experience of the Twins has actually been the reverse of that. The next reply to me said the Twins' experience was irrelevant because their pitchers were mostly drafted later in the first round, but I don't see why that matters if we're limiting it to a discussion of health.

 

If someone wants to do the analysis I'd be more than interested to see it. But I certainly didn't say anything about not drafting pitchers in general.

Edited May 25, 2017 by Taildragger8791

[glunn]

I would be interested to know how McKay, Wright and Gore pitched when they were seniors in high school in comparison with Greene.

 

I also hope that the Twins are spending a huge amount of effort studying the pitching motions of all of these prospects, with input from top experts to project durability as best they can.

 

I hope that they pick Greene, but only if they determine that his pitching motion is consistent with durability and that Greene seems likely to be able to develop better secondary pitches (and a fastball with better movement). Greene is raw, but that also means that he may benefit more from great coaching, because he has had less time to develop bad habits.

 

I live in the Los Angeles area and have friends who have some remote association with Greene, including a friend whose son is on Greene's HS team. I am hearing is that Greene's father has been proactive in protecting Greene's arm against overuse. If this is true and the kid has as good a makeup as some people think, then I would pick him, but only with a commitment to expend the resources necessary to give him the best possible development.  However, I am almost certainly missing a lot of important factors, because I am not spending the hundreds of hours of hard work that, hopefully, the Twins are spending on this.

 

It's fun to discuss this on TD, but the FO has access to far more information than we do, including slow motion videos that can be shown to multiple experts, and detailed research regarding each prospect's character and attitude, including discussions with their coaches and teammates. We see only the part of the iceberg that is above the waterline. Hopefully the Twins are sending people under the iceberg and spending hundreds of person hours studying every angle as to all of these prospects. If I were Falvine, I would want to know everything that might possibly be relevant, and have my army of scouts and analysts working 12 hours per day on this.

[Bark's Lounge]

I think the hype on Greene has been made so enormous, that a lot of Twins fans are going to be very, very bummed out if the Twins do not select him.

[The Wise One]

I think that regardless of who they pick there will be someone out there stating how much better the front office could have done with the pick.  There were quite a few people voice an opinion on Carlos Correa being picked over Buxton. The last few years those voices were silenced. 3 years from now, who knows. 

http://www.baseball-reference.com/draft/?year_ID=2012&draft_round=1&draft_type=junreg&query_type=year_round

 

give it a look. 5 years out. Of the top  players drafted. it is the high school position players are having an impact. The 2 college players doing well are Stroman, Gausman and Wacha All college pitchers. No  hs pitchers, yet.  

 

 

[bighat]

 

I think the hype on Greene has been made so enormous, that a lot of Twins fans are going to be very, very bummed out if the Twins do not select him.

 

Including me, I think.  Sure I'd be okay with the other prospects, but c'mon.  I want Greene with the #1 pick.

[drivlikejehu]

 

I would be interested to know how McKay, Wright and Gore pitched when they were seniors in high school in comparison with Greene.

 

Gore is a HS pitcher. But with respect to Greene's potential, this is the wrong way to look at it. For every McKay or Wright that took major steps forward in college, 10 or 20 pitchers improved to a far lesser extent. 

 

Even though Greene throws hard, he does still need a lot of development, and the track record of HS players in both college and professional ball demonstrates a high level of uncertainty. Some definitely do improve dramatically, and Greene would be scary good if that happened and he stayed healthy. But that's not really a high percentage outcome.

 

His upside is such that he belongs high in the draft . . . he just doesn't belong at #1 if there's a more advanced pitcher that also has high upside.

[Hrbowski]

 

Gore is a HS pitcher.

And a better one than Greene.

[Oldgoat_MN]

 

And a better one than Greene.

I was going to post a similar thought, though without quite the certainty you have.

According to the scouting reports I've read, it appears that Gore has excellent command and plus secondary pitches. He also has a higher K rate than Greene. All this while sitting with a FB in the mid 90s. 

Unfortunately (for the Twins, not him) he has risen on draft boards significantly since April. I had wondered early if we could sign him substantially under slot, but he has no reason to sign for $4.5 million now. He's going to get more than that from somebody.

Edited May 25, 2017 by Oldgoat_MN

[ALessKosherScott]

 

This makes it sound as though every prospect fails due to one cause or other.

 

Agreed, that the pundits ought to be doing a more careful job of explaining what is meant by risk. But I don't want to have to read a treatise in every prospect evaluation. What better term would you advocate than "safe"? Would "relatively safe" do the job?

 

My problem isn't so much safe as the blanket risk of high school pitcher v. college pitcher. Greene is going to succeed or fail for reasons completely unrelated to Josh Beckett, Matt Harrington or Colt Griffin. Ditto Kyle Wright and the bevy of college pitchers who've gone high. It's not a matter of safe because there isn't a Steven Strasburg in the draft who you could put into your rotation tomorrow in this draft. It's a question of which risk is most appealing to you, the potential that Greene blows his arm out tomorrow or the risk that McKay ad Wright may simply not be good enough.

[Bark's Lounge]

 

Including me, I think.  Sure I'd be okay with the other prospects, but c'mon.  I want Greene with the #1 pick.

Me too.

[Bob Sacamento]

 

Including me, I think.  Sure I'd be okay with the other prospects, but c'mon.  I want Greene with the #1 pick.

 

 

Me too.

But are you okay if in three-four years Greene is turned into a shut down closer because he could never develop quality third pitch or honed his curveball as a frontline starter?  

 

Then if you don't take Hunter and does turn that curveball into gold and adds a cutter, are you okay watching him star SD or Cincy's rotation for the next decade? Instead you took McKay or Wright who turned into a good quality #3 MLB starter from the get-go.

 

Those are the questions Twins' fans need to ask themselves.

[Bark's Lounge]

 

But are you okay if in three-four years Greene is turned into a shut down closer because he could never develop quality third pitch or honed his curveball as a frontline starter?  

 

Then if you don't take Hunter and does turn that curveball into gold and adds a cutter, are you okay watching him star SD or Cincy's rotation for the next decade? Instead you took McKay or Wright who turned into a good quality #3 MLB starter from the get-go.

 

Those are the questions Twins' fans need to ask themselves.

I'm a gambling man. Go big or go home. This time around I choose High Risk/High Reward.

[bighat]

I agree that drafting a High School pitcher with the #1 overall pick is risky.  The recent #1 overall pitchers who have had success are David Price and Stephen Strasburg, and both of them came from college programs. 

 

That said, last year 6 high school pitchers were taken in the first 17 picks, which is a record high.  So maybe the trend is moving towards taking high upside guys and developing the raw talent.  I think Greene fits that mold.  If Favley and Levine are in charge, I will trust the process if they take him.

[drivlikejehu]

 

I agree that drafting a High School pitcher with the #1 overall pick is risky.  The recent #1 overall pitchers who have had success are David Price and Stephen Strasburg, and both of them came from college programs. 

 

That said, last year 6 high school pitchers were taken in the first 17 picks, which is a record high.  So maybe the trend is moving towards taking high upside guys and developing the raw talent.  I think Greene fits that mold.  If Favley and Levine are in charge, I will trust the process if they take him.

 

Well in certain years, the crop of college pitchers does not include many guys with both upside and lower risk.

 

If a high school pitcher has ace potential and the college guy is a #4 type, it's an easy call to go with the former. 

 

The difference here is that Wright has upside. 

[Will]

Why do so many Posters think the Twins can get Kyle Wright or Brenden McKay at Basement Bargain price?

[old nurse]

 

Why do so many Posters think the Twins can get Kyle Wright or Brenden McKay at Basement Bargain price?

Economics. If they do not sign they have no leverage next year.

 

Slot values.

1. Twins: $7,770,700
2. Reds: $7,193,200
3. Padres: $6,668,100
4. Rays: $6,153,600
5. Braves: $5,707,300
6. A's: $5,303,000

 

The money drops quickly.  There is no need for the top three clubs to sign someone for full slot value. Appel signed for 1.5 million underslot . Swanson went 2 million underslot. Moniak was almost 3 million under. Aiken did not sign and lost a lot of money

http://m.mlb.com/news/article/183906680/2016-draft-signing-and-bonus-tracker/

http://m.mlb.com/news/article/130246508/2015-draft-signing-and-bonus-tracker/

http://m.mlb.com/news/article/79082538/2014-draft-signingbonus-tracker/

Top picks generally do not get full slot value

[glunn]

It appears that the Twins may now be leaning towards Wright -- http://m.mlb.com/news/article/232496282/jim-callis-mock-projection-2017-mlb-draft/