Article: Will Hunter Greene Haunt The Twins?

[Cody Christie]

MLB's 2017 draft is a little over two weeks away. Minnesota has known they have the first overall pick since last fall and the new regime will be doing their due diligence as draft day approaches. With Derek Falvey and Thad Levine overseeing their first draft, there is a lot of pressure for the club to make the right pick.

 

The Twins have narrowed their list to a handful of players but it seems more likely that the club will be picking from a trio that includes college players Brenden McKay and Kyle Wright and two-way high school player Hunter Greene. McKay and Wright might be the safer picks because of their collegiate experience. Greene could be a once in a generation player on the mound.

 

At this point, it seems more likely for the Twins to select one of the safer college options. This leaves Greene, a player Sports Illustrated called "the star baseball needs," still on the board. Will passing on Greene haunt the Twins in the years to come?Taking A Chance

There has never been a right-handed high school pitcher taken with the first overall pick. Greene could become the first but there are so many factors that come into developing a high school arm. He is a raw product whose edges would need to be refined over the next 4-5 seasons in the Twins farm system.

 

Organizationally, the Twins haven't had the best track record when it comes to developing pitchers. Kohl Stewart and Tyler Jay have both been taken with high first round picks since 2013. Jay was supposed to develop into a top flight starter but the Twins have already moved him to the bullpen. Stewart has shown flashes of being strong but his ERA is north of 5.00 at Double-A.

 

One of the reasons Falvey was hired by the Twins was to revamp the pitching staff. "He made it his, probably his passion, to understand pitching and the delivery," Indians manager Terry Francona told the Star Tribune."We go to him a lot with questions. If he doesn't have the answer, he'll go find it."

 

When asked if there was a temptation of taking Greene, Falvey said, "We want to line it up and take the best player that has the best possibility to affect us long term, and sometimes that will be a high school player and sometimes it will be a college player." Falvey could want the challenge of developing Greene or he might have seen enough of him this spring to know that taking a chance isn't the right move.

 

West Coast Kid

Greene has grown up and played almost exclusively on the West Coast. With the Padres sitting with the number three pick, rumors have been swirling about Greene wanting to stay close to home. Baseball America reported,"The rumors of he and his family attempting to maneuver his way to the No. 3 pick with the Padres are a poorly kept secret."

 

Baseball America also stated, "The Padres' throwing program is more in line with Greene's program." Every young kid is going to want play near his friends and family. The weather in southern California would be a little more pleasant than the in the upper midwest. He'd also be part of a National League organization where he'd still have the opportunity to bat on a regular basis.

 

If Greene's family really doesn't want him playing in Minnesota, they could pressure the Twins with some high demands that might persuade the club into taking a college option.

 

Weighing The Cost

Because the Twins have the first pick and other high picks, they have the largest bonus pool in the draft. The Twins' top draft slot is set at $7,770,700 which is roughly $1.25 million less than what the Philles were slotted for with the top pick in last year's draft.

 

Baseball switched over to the current slotting rules five years ago. Dansby Swanson has been the only top pick to receive the highest signing bonus. In 2012, the Twins gave out the highest bonus to Byron Buxton after the Astros worked a deal with Carlos Correa. Houston was able to use the savings to take Lance McCullers and Rio Ruiz with some of their other early picks.

 

Since he is a high school player, Greene is going to want the highest bonus in the draft. Minnesota could do something similar to what Houston did in 2012. By signing McKay or Wright to a smaller bonus than Greene, the Twins could use that savings to go over slot on the 35th and 37th picks. However, the Twins might believe Greene is the best available player and take him no matter the cost.

 

What are your feelings as the draft moves closer? Is Greene going to haunt the Twins? Leave a COMMENT and start the discussion.

 

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[dgwills]

I'm not a scout, but I always want the guy with the highest upside. It sounds like that is Hunter Greene. The ability to sign a player doesn't mean much in the current collective bargaining agreement. The Twin's could of drafted Blake Rutherford in last years draft. If they don't sign you get virtually the same pick the following season. Considering it takes years for player to make it through the minors I can not see how this is an issue.

[nytwinsfan]

If they think Greene is the BPA, they should take him, regardless of whether he costs more than the college pitchers (obviously if he is demanding extra extra money, like say $9 million, well then that's a differnet story). Right now I don't think he is the BPA though, once you factor in risk. Wright has a lot of upside too, but much less risk. And you could even make an argument for McKay. Right now I'm leaning towards Wright, but not because he'd be cheaper (that's an added bonus), but beause I think he is the BPA, which obviously includes the concept of risk and to a lesser extent closeness to the majors, etc.

[jimbo92107]

The Padres got Dave Winfield, so I say we take Hunter Greene. So there. Ptbbb!

[Carneal&Gordon]

I also read that his camp is trying to steer away from the Reds and their pitching program, not the Twins. I think their fear is going to Cincy at 2 more than anything.

[sploorp]

It seems to me that Twins fans don't believe they deserve nice things.  Whenever a player breaks through and starts looking like a star, they want to trade them "while their value is still high."  And now they have a shot at a real flame thrower and it's "oof da, so much risk!  Let's go for something more sensible."

 

Middle of the rotation will always be available via free agency and trades, intentionally drafting somebody that projects that way with the number one pick is just plain dumb.  And since I believe that 20+ million a year for 6+ years for a former Cy Young winner is almost as bad, that doesn't leave a whole lot of other options.

 

The best way to acquire an ace is to draft it and develop it.  If Greene projects as that kind of elite arm, then that is who the team should go for.  It's not like college players come with some kind of warranty.  They may be more developed, but they also have more miles on them.

[HitInAPinch]

What percentage of drafted players make the major leagues?

-- NCAA senior players drafted by a Major League Baseball (MLB) team: Less than eleven in 100, or 10.5 percent.

 

-- High school senior players eventually drafted by an MLB team: About one in 200, or 0.5 percent.

 

Just sayin' :  temper your expectations...    

[old nurse]

Matt Bush or Justin Verlander?

Justin Upton or Ryan Zimmerman

Hochevar or Kershaw?

Moustkas or Price

Beckham or anybody

Mark Appel or Kris Bryant.

 

Harper or Machado is win/win

 

Curse of being number 1  Despite the last few years a Mauer over a Pryor.

[Don't Feed the Greed Guy]

 

Greene has grown up and played almost exclusively on the West Coast. With the Padres sitting with the number three pick, rumors have been swirling about Greene wanting to stay close to home. Baseball America reported,"The rumors of he and his family attempting to maneuver his way to the No. 3 pick with the Padres are a poorly kept secret."

Any chance that the Padres could have a Rick Spielman moment in their war room on draft day and trade up to #1?

[Cory Engelhardt]

Hunter Greene's ceiling is immensely high, but I haven't seen a scout list him as a generational/can't miss type. If the twins draft him I will be excited because they believe they have a plan in place to help him reach his potential. That said, if they dont take him and instead take someone else (I am holding out hope for Kyle Wright because his ceiling is also that of a top of a rotation starter but his floor is still that of a starting pitcher) I won't be disappointed.

[Dave The Dastardly]

Here's what I think I know; the older you get the more you realize there are few black-and-white decisions, they're all clouded in gray. And the more important the decision, the grayer it becomes. It's a damned if you do, damned if you don't situation. And the more time available to make the call, the more agonizing it becomes. So eventually you just say the hell with it and flip a coin. Let the chips fall where they may.

 

But our new front office is supposedly made up of stats guys, including a pitcher swami. The college guys are going to have more stats to justify their selection than the high school player simply because they have more experience. My call, the swami goes with the stats and takes a college player.

 

By the way, Sports Illustrated is better at selecting Swimsuit models than it is at selecting athletic talent. Not that it's necessarily a bad thing...

[h2oface]

I went and saw 3 games. He pitched in two of them. I don't like the idea of another high school pitcher.... but he really looked good. And smooth. And hit a couple of homers. I bet they take him.

[Mike Sixel]

 

Any chance that the Padres could have a Rick Spielman moment in their war room on draft day and trade up to #1?

 

You can't trade draft picks in baseball. 

[twins_89]

It's a tough spot for a brand new front office, take Greene who is by most accounts the best prospect in the draft or go with the lower ceiling pick with less risk. The nightmare scenario is that in 4 years Greene is in the majors and looks like a superstar while the guy the Twins pick is a meh middle of the rotation pitcher. Personally, I go for the home run and draft Greene.

[ALessKosherScott]

The problem with draft picks is that they all should come with that Franklin Mills disclaimer: Past return not indicative of future performance. 

 

I'd regret them not taking Greene. But I'm also not the one signing the check to do it. I just hope the whole notion of "Playing it safe" isn't being bandied about. Playing it safe is what created the mess this franchise has been lately.

 

 

 

 

 

[snap4birds]

 

You can't trade draft picks in baseball. 

I think you can trade those competitive balance picks now?   The next CBA they might even up it up more, to allow all picks to be traded.  

Or maybe I'm wrong on the competitive balance picks....in that case, never mind. 

[gocgo]

If only this were NFL format.  Then we would be advertising that we are taking Greene no matter if we are or not.  SD would then trade up with us and we would get who we probably wanted anyway along with another of their picks or we could get a prospect in the trade....but it isn't the NFL draft.  Take him, sign him, and then trade him to SD for a boatload of prospects.

[snap4birds]

As fans, we tend to fall in love with the prospect who throws the hardest.  Probably because that's the easiest measurement.  But even the hardest throwers have to have good secondary pitches to remain effective in the majors.  So I think that is what the scouts have to figure out, does McKay or Wright have the secondary pitches to be at least a #2 in the majors?  If so, I think you go with one of them.  

 

Have any high schoolers that threw 100 made it to the majors?  The only one I remember is Colt Griffin, and he never got close to the majors.  It seems like there have been a lot more in recent years, but I don't remember who they were or if they've advanced very far.

[Twins33]

I wouldn't hate if they took Greene. I wanted him for the longest time, but now I'm leaning towards Wright due to secondary pitchers. With Greene it's all about whether he will or won't develop plus or at least above average secondary pitches. Wright already has those.

 

I have a legit concern that Greene only becomes an Aroldis Chapman. I absolutely don't want a closer/RP at 1-1 and it's possible that's all he becomes on the pitching side. With Wright, I feel like he's going to be a 1, 2 or 3 in the rotation due to his stuff. And people still think Wright can improve also. Obviously nothing is guaranteed, but he has the stuff.

 

I've been reading up on Gore lately too and even he is sounding like a better choice than Greene as he also has the secondary pitches too. It seems like the only reason Greene is being mentioned way more than Gore is because of the FB mph. And from what I've read Gore's fastball is above average with room to get to plus so we're barely talking about much of a difference here on the FB and someone who already has better secondary pitches and better control in general. Maybe articles comparing Gore to Kershaw are brainwashing me.

 

So I'd be fine with Wright, Gore or Greene but I think I'd want them in that order. Greene is definitely third for me though, but as I said I wouldn't hate if they took him. I'd hope he would work out just like I would any other player.

[joey emerson]

green has ace potential but the odds he gets to that potential is maybe 25% at best. wright has number 2 maybe number 1 potential the the odd he reaches that make are maybe 50%. if wright by taking wright saves you say a million you can use that on pick 35 and try to get a high upside hs pitcher by giving 3 mil to a guy like carlson, Romero, Enlow, Little if they fall far enough. 

[Thrylos]

 

 

Greene, a player Sports Illustrated called "the star baseball needs,"

 

Sports illustrated does not have a mouth or hands to call anyone.   The person who called Greene that in Sports Illustrated is Lee Jenkins, their basketball , and mainly NBA writer.   Matter of fact, this is his only baseball piece in SI.

 

Mountain of salt the size of Dead Sea needed there regarding taking his opinion as anything close to "expert".

 

Wishing the kid well, but the Twins should (and hopefully will) pass and get someone another pitcher who is more of a surer bet to help them sooner than later.

 

 

[Hrbowski]

My new mock is up:

http://twinsdaily.com/blog/531/entry-8889-mock-draft-20-2017-mlb-draft/

[nicksaviking]

 

green has ace potential but the odds he gets to that potential is maybe 25% at best. wright has number 2 maybe number 1 potential the the odd he reaches that make are maybe 50%. if wright by taking wright saves you say a million you can use that on pick 35 and try to get a high upside hs pitcher by giving 3 mil to a guy like carlson, Romero, Enlow, Little if they fall far enough. 

 

I'd think the odds that either of them become an ace are much less.

 

People like to throw around the "No righthanded HS pitcher has gone 1-1", but that's a bit misleading because only three HS arms of any sort have gone 1-1. Since the draft started 17 pitchers have gone 1-1, I'd say only three were aces which generously includes Garrit Cole and Stephen Strausburg who under most circumstances would probably be considered TBD and David Price who may have finished being useful right when his rookie contract was up.

 

If finding an "Ace" is the goal, you probably really do have to go with the guy with most upside. If it's more important to try to get a guy who won't bust, clearly the college guys make sense, but it's still a long shot. Only 5 pitchers taken 1-1 have managed even a career of 25 WAR. Cole and Strausburg likely some day will make it 7, but tossing out those two plus Aiken and Appel, there have only been 5 of 13 pitchers who have even been barely not disappointing, or 38%.

 

If getting even a "safe" guy is that low of a percentage, I think I'd rather have the guy with the most ceiling. And I'm not saying that's Greene; it might be Wright. Probably not McKay though.

[MN_ExPat]

These are the decisions that make me glad I'm not the GM.  Although I do have to bark a little bit about calling Wright or McKay consolation prize "Safe Picks". 

 

By all accounts Greene just oozes potential, that 100 MPH on the radar gun screams sexy, but... I'm not sold on that alone.   2 Seam/4 Seam, what kind of movement does it have?   Can he locate consistently against good hitters?    Can he change velocity and or arm angles?   How will he respond the first time he makes a great pitch that a hitter deposits in the parking lot?

 

I know a local guy from our area that was drafted by the Red Sox.   He could hit 96/97 in HS but had no real secondary pitches (his words, not mine).   He had always just blown it past hitters his whole career.   He gets to rookie ball and makes a great pitch to a hitter who promptly delivered it to the parking lot.  Coach tells him afterwards, 'That was a heck of a pitch, but up here everyone can hit those'.   Four years later, the player is out of baseball (although injuries didn't help any either).

 

Guess my point is that just being able to throw hard is not a guarantee of success and the other options that the FO is considering are potentially really good players as well. 

 

That being said, it the Twins do decide to "Go Greene" I will still root for him to do well and succeed and hope things turn out for him.   I'm just glad that I don't have to make that choice.

[Otto von Ballpark]

 

The Padres got Dave Winfield, so I say we take Hunter Greene. So there. Ptbbb!

And like Winfield, the Padres can sign their hometown kid back 20 years from now.

[Shaitan]

 

If only this were NFL format.  Then we would be advertising that we are taking Greene no matter if we are or not.  SD would then trade up with us and we would get who we probably wanted anyway along with another of their picks or we could get a prospect in the trade....but it isn't the NFL draft.  Take him, sign him, and then trade him to SD for a boatload of prospects.

I don't think you can trade recently drafted players either. There's (at least used to be) a waiting period of 6 or 12 months after signing.

[Oldgoat_MN]

Reservations I have toward each pitcher:
Greene – HS development time, Lack of secondary pitches, If his FB had better movement wouldn’t he have had a lot more Ks?
McKay – Lack of MLB velocity, Many ‘experts’ peg him as a #3
Wright – Command, Took him a while to get going this year, Last couple of starts before the draft will weigh heavily
Gore - HS development time, Could be best in the draft, but that’s what they said about Kohl Stewart

 

I have started to lean more toward Wright. If McKay has Greg Maddux control then drafting anyone else is a mistake, but that is unlikely.

 

I just hope they get it right.

 

EDIT: can't spell for sh**

Edited May 23, 2017 by Oldgoat_MN

[Oldgoat_MN]

 

I don't think you can trade recently drafted players either. There's (at least used to be) a waiting period of 6 or 12 months after signing.

It was 12 months just a year or two ago.

I thought I had read that that may change, but don't know where it stands right now.

[Bob Sacamento]

 

McKay – Lack of MLB velocity, Many ‘experts’ peg him as a #3

 

As a pitcher, ya a #3 maybe a #2 so a 2.5-3.5 WIN pitcher.  At the plate, his bat is getting a future 60 grade with a 70 grade raw power, and 60 game power, which would make him a 3.5-4 WIN offensive player

[nicksaviking]

 

Reservations I have toward each pitcher:
Greene – HS development time, Lack of secondary pitches, If his FB had better movement wouldn’t he have had a lot more Ks?
McKay – Lack of MLB velocity, Many ‘experts’ peg him as a #3
Wright – Command, Took him a while to get going this year, Last couple of starts before the draft will weigh heavily
Gore - HS development time, Could be best in the draft, but that’s what they said about Kohl Stewart

 

I have started to lean more toward Wright. If McKay has Greg Maddux control then drafting anyone else is a mistake, but that is unlikely.

 

I just hope they get it right.

 

EDIT: can't spell for sh**

 

Considering McKay's NCAA career BB/9 is 3.19 I'd guess he's no Maddux. Wright is currently and has for his career walked fewer batters.

 

Not that walks are the only factor when it comes to control.