Article: Young Guns

[drivlikejehu]

 

1.  legit starter:  better than what the Twins are running out at 4 and 5 right now.  

 

2.  I pay very little attention to Fangraphs, even less to their projections, and even less than that to WAR, so I don't care about any of that.  The Twins are currently on pace for 90 wins.  We're a quarter of the way through the season.  That's reality, and with some help, I see no reason they can't come close to maintaining that pace.

 

Well, there are AAAA pitchers that meet your criteria, so it is basically a meaningless standard.

 

You can not care about projections all you want, but every front office considers how strong of a club they have before making major decisions. You're not considering the issue seriously if you don't. The Twins are 25% of the way through the season and 1 game up on Cleveland, a clearly superior team. Making ill-informed decisions based on gut feel is obviously not a path to success. 

 

Just because so far as you can "see," the Twins are close to a 90-win caliber team, doesn't mean that objectively your gut feelings have any validity. 

Edited May 23, 2017 by drivlikejehu

[USAFChief]

 

I wasn't saying there was no talent in the system. I understand how it can be perceived that way, but it wasn't my intent. The most likely outcome of the current system is that it will provide 0 star players, but will produce a number of solid MLB players. The current Twins team has a few guys who could turn into stars, a handful of guys who will be solid players for a number of years, and some old guys we shouldn't be counting on beyond a year or 2. The current pitching staff (starters and bullpen) have 1 guy who may be above average, a handful of guys who can be average (#3 starter, solid bullpen arm), and a whole bunch of junk. Trading away all of your depth in the minors for a single starter gives your pitching staff 2 possible above average starters, a handful of guys who can be (emphasis on can be) average, and a whole bunch of junk without any real depth coming from the minors. That doesn't help the 2017 Twins let alone the 2018-2022 Twins. And while we have good prospects and depth in the minors we don't have anyone that gets you a top ranked pitcher. As someone pointed out earlier it took a top 25 prospect to get a Drew Pomeranz last year. Piling a whole bunch of mid level prospects doesn't get you a #1 or 2 starter. Teams want big time prospects. That means it takes Gordon and Gonsalves to even start a conversation for a pitcher who may actually help.

 

To me this all comes down to the fact that this Twins team is more of a mirage than a true competitor this year. And to me you just don't sacrifice anything of the future for a run during a year where you're not realistically going to win in the playoffs. Getting to the playoffs and getting swept, again, isn't something worth hoping for for me. I know it'd be nice to be there, but I'd prefer they run with the team they have. Win 78-83 games. Get the young guys a ton of at bats while mixing in the guys in the minors here and there to start seeing if they're going to be pieces of the team the next couple years. Draft Kyle Wright and let him advance quickly if he's showing he can. Get him some time in the ML pen at the end of the year and hope he's running 1,2,3 with Berrios and Mejia by June next year with Gonsalves joining by then as well and Romero and Stewart getting cups of coffee to fill in for injuries. Fix the bullpen this offseason and be ready to roll for years.

 

I think much of this is a difference in approach between some of us. I want sustained success with realistic shots at the WS. I don't think trading for a single player this year accomplishes either of those things and actually sets the Twins back from being able to do either because it depletes their depth. I want them to complete this rebuild and then be able to trade both major leaguers and prospects to help maintain success. They're never going to be big players in free agency as the Pohlads just won't pay for that. But trading some major leaguers (probably Sano if we're being realistic) as the reach the end of arbitration to bring in big time prospects and also trading some prospects to help fill holes balances things out and lets them stay competitive. The team is just too far away right now to start making trades for individual players.

Not to pick on you, but I've been reading some version of this post for several years now.  

 

"Now's not the time.  Wait.  The minor leaguers are coming.  Don't trade.  Don't sign bullpen help.  Don't sign free agents.  In two years, we'll be good, and THEN go get the guys needed to be good."

 

I will give you credit for being the first person to mention trading Sano, though.

 

Uff-da.

 

 

 

 

[Otto von Ballpark]

 

1.  legit starter:  better than what the Twins are running out at 4 and 5 right now.

Duffey might be able to do that (and more), for free.  And we're 2 months away from trade season, so we've got time to find out.

 

I'm having a hard time reconciling your position that Duffey has to stay in the pen, but the Twins should be aggressively trying to address the rotation in the short term.  Why not Duffey to the rotation, Burdi to the pen, and you can re-evaluate when teams start listening to trade offers in July?

 

That seems like a way better use of resources, for both the short and long term, than spending prospect capital right away trying to get whatever starter a team is willing to deal early.

Edited May 23, 2017 by spycake

[yarnivek1972]

USAFChief, on 23 May 2017 - 11:22 AM, said:

1.  legit starter:  better than what the Twins are running out at 4 and 5 right now. 

 

2.  I pay very little attention to Fangraphs, even less to their projections, and even less than that to WAR, so I don't care about any of that.  The Twins are currently on pace for 90 wins.  We're a quarter of the way through the season.  That's reality, and with some help, I see no reason they can't come close to maintaining that pace.

 

 

 

Well, there are AAAA pitchers that meet your criteria, so it is basically a meaningless standard.

 

You can not care about projections all you want, but every front office considers how strong of a club they have before making major decisions. You're not considering the issue seriously if you don't. The Twins are 25% of the way through the season and 1 game up on Cleveland, a clearly superior team. Making ill-informed decisions based on gut feel is obviously not a path to success. 

 

Just because so far as you can "see," the Twins are close to a 90-win caliber team, doesn't mean that objectively your gut feelings have any validity. 

 

 

Sorry, it has to be said.  It's like a baseball conversation between Kirk and Spock.

 

Ok, back to seriousness now.

[Doomtints]

 

Sorry, it has to be said.  It's like a baseball conversation between Kirk and Spock.

So it's an interesting conversation, then. Cool. We can always use more of that.

[chpettit19]

 

Not to pick on you, but I've been reading some version of this post for several years now.  

 

"Now's not the time.  Wait.  The minor leaguers are coming.  Don't trade.  Don't sign bullpen help.  Don't sign free agents.  In two years, we'll be good, and THEN go get the guys needed to be good."

 

I will give you credit for being the first person to mention trading Sano, though.

 

Uff-da.

I actually agree with any frustration you have towards the idea of not signing bullpen help or free agents. If by "not trading" you're referring to the guys we've had in the bigs over the last 6-7 years then I agree with you that we should have been open to that. If you're referring to trading prospects I don't understand what you thought that would have accomplished. Instead of losing 95+ they'd lose 90+ and have nobody in the system coming to help and nobody to trade for help and have to rely simply on free agents?

 

I suggested they are going to have to trade Sano before he hits free agency. I don't think that's a crazy idea. Losing your best player for nothing is killer for a mid market team who's owners want to be run as a small market team. Obviously, there's conversations that will have to take place behind the scenes that we'll never know about and the first choice is to extend him a couple years past his arb years and to do it sooner than later, but I don't think it's going out on a limb to say Sano is going to want a big, fat paycheck down the road and the Twins are not likely to pay it.

[Doomtints]

The Twins are not coming from a position of strength when it comes to trading away prospects. This is purely an academic conversation because if they did this they would be gutting themselves. As much as it sucks, TR left the Twins pretty thin and the organization needs to be acquiring prospects and not trading them, and they must explore free agency at the same time.

 

Sure we heard this for a long time. The difference is under TR it was a BS excuse for not wanting to put in the effort to explore free agency or the trade market. Right now stocking the minors is a need, and the Twins can do both as any successful team does. The "we can only do one of these things successfully" was a dumb narrative that none of us should have ever accepted.

Edited May 23, 2017 by Doomtints

[Jham]

 

You had me until the Gordon reference. He's legit.

Anyone else in the system could be traded (in the right deal) without too much worry.

I figured that part might get some people, that's why I put the IMO in there!

Fangraphs had him projected like this when we drafted him:
 

Hit GamePower RawPower Speed Field Throws Future Value
20 / 55 20 / 50 45 / 50 50 / 50+ 50 / 55 60 / 60 55

Good, not necessarily a star.  He started 2 games at 2nd last year compared to 103 at SS.  This year he's started 14 at 2nd already with 26 at SS.  I haven't seen him play enough to say he can or can't stick at short, but I haven't heard many scouts say that he certainly will.  

He's hitting well this year, offsetting a career high K% (21% not bad) with career high BB%.  His BABIP is 30 points higher despite moving up a level, while his slugging % is 100 points higher (3HR this year compared to 3 all of last year)  This is often the way a young prospects grow as hitters.  However, I'm still not sure he'll hit enough to be above average.  And if he can't stick at short, his value plummets. 

If his last name were Nishioka instead of Gordon, would people be so high on him?  To me, he's an obvious candidate to be overvalued by outside organizations.
 

[drjim]

I figured that part might get some people, that's why I put the IMO in there!

 

Fangraphs had him projected like this when we drafted him:

 

Hit GamePower RawPower Speed Field Throws Future Value

20 / 55 20 / 50 45 / 50 50 / 50+ 50 / 55 60 / 60 55

 

Good, not necessarily a star. He started 2 games at 2nd last year compared to 103 at SS. This year he's started 14 at 2nd already with 26 at SS. I haven't seen him play enough to say he can or can't stick at short, but I haven't heard many scouts say that he certainly will.

 

He's hitting well this year, offsetting a career high K% (21% not bad) with career high BB%. His BABIP is 30 points higher despite moving up a level, while his slugging % is 100 points higher (3HR this year compared to 3 all of last year) This is often the way a young prospects grow as hitters. However, I'm still not sure he'll hit enough to be above average. And if he can't stick at short, his value plummets.

 

If his last name were Nishioka instead of Gordon, would people be so high on him? To me, he's an obvious candidate to be overvalued by outside organizations.

 

I think he is starting to exceed draft day projections/grades. He has performed enough that his last name no longer matters to me.

 

He's not untouchable by any means, but it is now pretty clear to me that he has established enough to be clear what value the Twins are giving up, a future solid regular, probably at SS.

[drivlikejehu]

There is no reason to ever expect other organizations to overpay for Twins players or prospects.

 

Any talk of trading Gordon is academic, of course; the Twins aren't going to do it.

[drjim]

 

There is no reason to ever expect other organizations to overpay for Twins players or prospects.

Any talk of trading Gordon is academic, of course; the Twins aren't going to do it.

 

I could see them doing it if they decide to extend Dozier. But wouldn't happen to the offseason.