Article: Young Guns

[Deduno Abides]

Fair points.

I do, however, believe there is a deal out there that can help this team. Obviously they're not trading for a top line starter. Maybe take on money, find a situation where someone with talent needs a fresh start.

And don't let trading away a prospect or two stand in the way. Fortune favors the bold.

Jeff Samardzija seems to be available every year for just that purpose. One year, some supposed genius even traded Addison Russell for him. He's probably available now to a team willing to take his salary. However, he's never helped anybody win anything. The Brewers' trade for CC Sabathia is probably the best outcome, and they had to give up a higher-rated player than the Twins have, along with Brantley and two other players - and they still bombed out of the first round of the playoffs. The Royals got Johnny Cueto and Ben Zobrist, but that was a unique team and probably had a better chance to make the World Series. They're paying for it now.

[drivlikejehu]

As much as the Twins notionally are desperate for a decent starting pitcher (among other things), in reality that's basically 1-2 wins at best and little help in a putative playoff run. The benefit is limited.

 

Now, 1 or 2 wins can be significant. But who knows what will be available for a price that makes sense.

Edited May 23, 2017 by drivlikejehu

[chpettit19]

 

Trading for a starter ruins a rebuild?  Trading any prospects would be a "disaster," and "lead to 5 more years of awful baseball?"

 

I think you have that backwards.  "We're going to do this the right way,"  (i.e. NOT trading anything from the minor leagues) is one significant cause of the awful baseball.

 

If, indeed, they are 2-3 starters away, trading for one, now, seems like a good way to get going on finding them. 

 

The other option is to do nothing.  That's not an acceptable strategy.  Not for now, and not for later.  

At this point in a rebuild, yes.

 

The previous regime's idea of "doing it the right way" and not trading away prospects wasn't their problem. Their problem was they still thought baseball was the same game as it was in late late 90s and early 00s. The game and the way it's played passed them by in a hurry. And they were awful at developing the talent they did have. When you have as many holes as the Twins have had the last decade trading packages of prospects for single players isn't productive in any way. It depletes your system while giving you a couple good players who can't win anything because single players don't win in MLB (go ask Mike Trout).

 

Trading for 1 now gets you 1 guy. And with the prospects we have we're not looking at Kershaw coming back to us. We're looking at a #3 pitcher most likely. That's not making any significant difference this season or the seasons to come. And then what's your plan for getting the other 2? Signing big free agents? Would be nice. But be realistic...that's not happening. So now we have Berrios as a #2 if he works out as we all hope. The #3 we traded our prospects for (Gordon would have to be included, not just the AA arms we have). Mejia as a #4, or #3 if everything goes perfect for him. An aging Santana who is quickly coming back to earth and will continue to decline in the next couple years. That's 4 pretty solid arms, I'll give you that. But who's the 5th starter? And when the injuries come (and they always do) who are #6,7,8? I'd be ok with Berrios starting games 1,4,7 of a playoff series if he turns into what we all hope he does, but he's not carrying you to a World Series title. The Twins have been here before. They were running out the Cy Young winner and 2 MVPs and couldn't make noise in the playoffs. It takes all 25 guys on the roster to win in the playoffs. The Twins are finally in a position to have some depth and run 25 legitimate major league players out there for years to come if they keep developing their system and supplementing it with some free agents. Don't ruin that for Jeff Samardzija or someone of that ilk.

 

Not trading prospects isn't "doing nothing." It's building through your farm system. Like most teams have to do.

 

How many times have pretty much all of us condemned the old regime for resigning Suzuki, Hughes, etc. after flash in the pan seasons? Getting excited about a solid start record wise and trading away prospects for the hopes of making the playoffs and getting swept in the first round isn't a good strategy. The Twins now have a +1 run differential this year. They aren't legitimate threats to win in the playoffs.

 

And as for the comparisons to the Royals trading for James Shields...if you can show me the Herrera, Davis, Holland bullpen we're going to run out there I'll find that to be a useful comp. That was their strategy. They went bullpen and mediocre starters with 1 guy to be a stopper if needed. The Twins don't have that bullpen that makes it a 6 inning game so having a whole bunch of subpar starters doesn't kill them. And the trade for Shields didn't make a drastic difference, either. I don't think anyone can say there's no way they win if they were running Meyers out there in right instead of Shields on the mound as his playoff stats were not impressive.

 

The front office needs to (and I believe they will) be realistic about what this team is and show some discipline and restraint. They are playing some good baseball most nights, but they aren't dominating by any means.

[kab21]

 

As much as the Twins notionally are desperate for a decent starting pitcher (among other things), in reality that's basically 1-2 wins at best and little help in a putative playoff run. The benefit is limited.

 

Now, 1 or 2 wins can be significant. But who knows what will be available for a price that makes sense.

I think a decent starting pitcher (someone that a worthwhile prospect is needed for) is more than 1-2 wins better than Gibson/Hughes. There is upgrading a rotation from an alright 5th starter and upgrading from something that is completely awful.

But I still don't make that move. I target another Santiago type that can be picked up almost as a salary dump for a marginal prospect. For example Clayton Richard. This move is the epitome of boring.

[DaveW]

Yeah,at this point nearly every pitcher is an upgrade over tossing Gibson or Tespech out every 5th day. 

Just trade for Richard or a similar "boring" pitcher and be done with it. 

[glunn]

I hope that the Twins are opportunistic. If they can make a solid deal then they should make one, but I would hope that it's for a player who can be around for at least a few years.

[DaveW]

 

I hope that the Twins are opportunistic. If they can make a solid deal then they should make one, but I would hope that it's for a player who can be around for at least a few years.

I don't mind if it's a rental, as long as the piece(s) given up aren't going to be missed: Like take on the contract and give up a C level prospect or two, the following pitchers could fit the bill:

-Marco Estrada
-Trevor Cahill 
-Alex Cobb (Rays would need to fall out a bit)
-Johnny Cueto (Interesting case as he can opt out of his 4 year 82 million after this year which he most likely will, if not, I wouldn't mind the Twins being on the hook for that!)
-Jeremy Hellickson
-Ian Kennedy (Royals might be open to trading in the division)
-Tyson Ross (DL)
-Vargas (see royals)

Hellickson, Estrada and Cobb would probably be my top targets. They would cost a bit more, but I doubt the Twins would have to give up any of their better prospects.

 

[USAFChief]

 

At this point in a rebuild, yes.

 

The previous regime's idea of "doing it the right way" and not trading away prospects wasn't their problem. Their problem was they still thought baseball was the same game as it was in late late 90s and early 00s. The game and the way it's played passed them by in a hurry. And they were awful at developing the talent they did have. When you have as many holes as the Twins have had the last decade trading packages of prospects for single players isn't productive in any way. It depletes your system while giving you a couple good players who can't win anything because single players don't win in MLB (go ask Mike Trout).

 

Trading for 1 now gets you 1 guy. And with the prospects we have we're not looking at Kershaw coming back to us. We're looking at a #3 pitcher most likely. That's not making any significant difference this season or the seasons to come. And then what's your plan for getting the other 2? Signing big free agents? Would be nice. But be realistic...that's not happening. So now we have Berrios as a #2 if he works out as we all hope. The #3 we traded our prospects for (Gordon would have to be included, not just the AA arms we have). Mejia as a #4, or #3 if everything goes perfect for him. An aging Santana who is quickly coming back to earth and will continue to decline in the next couple years. That's 4 pretty solid arms, I'll give you that. But who's the 5th starter? And when the injuries come (and they always do) who are #6,7,8? I'd be ok with Berrios starting games 1,4,7 of a playoff series if he turns into what we all hope he does, but he's not carrying you to a World Series title. The Twins have been here before. They were running out the Cy Young winner and 2 MVPs and couldn't make noise in the playoffs. It takes all 25 guys on the roster to win in the playoffs. The Twins are finally in a position to have some depth and run 25 legitimate major league players out there for years to come if they keep developing their system and supplementing it with some free agents. Don't ruin that for Jeff Samardzija or someone of that ilk.

 

Not trading prospects isn't "doing nothing." It's building through your farm system. Like most teams have to do.

 

How many times have pretty much all of us condemned the old regime for resigning Suzuki, Hughes, etc. after flash in the pan seasons? Getting excited about a solid start record wise and trading away prospects for the hopes of making the playoffs and getting swept in the first round isn't a good strategy. The Twins now have a +1 run differential this year. They aren't legitimate threats to win in the playoffs.

 

And as for the comparisons to the Royals trading for James Shields...if you can show me the Herrera, Davis, Holland bullpen we're going to run out there I'll find that to be a useful comp. That was their strategy. They went bullpen and mediocre starters with 1 guy to be a stopper if needed. The Twins don't have that bullpen that makes it a 6 inning game so having a whole bunch of subpar starters doesn't kill them. And the trade for Shields didn't make a drastic difference, either. I don't think anyone can say there's no way they win if they were running Meyers out there in right instead of Shields on the mound as his playoff stats were not impressive.

 

The front office needs to (and I believe they will) be realistic about what this team is and show some discipline and restraint. They are playing some good baseball most nights, but they aren't dominating by any means.

None of this makes much sense to me.

 

I don't understand how, on the one hand, we don't have a good enough minor league system for any other team to want any of it in trade, but if we just hold onto those minor leaguers, they'll magically turn into everything needed to win the WS.

 

I don't understand what the previous regime has to do with what the current regime should do, nor do I believe the holes the team had "for the last decade" have anything to do with 2017.

 

I don't understand arguing, on the one hand, that good players by themselves don't win ("Trout"), and then arguing, on the other hand, against providing them some help.

 

I don't understand arguing that the Twins won't sign high dollar free agents, and also arguing against trades.  That leaves only the minor leagues...and you've already said the minor league system doesn't have much talent.

 

Somewhat off topic, but I also strongly disagree that it "takes all 25 guys on the roster to win in the playoffs."  It takes all of the 25 man, and most all of the 40 man roster to get to the playoffs.  Once you're there, it's about the top 15-18 players on your team.  You said it yourself...you'd be fine with Berrios starting games 1, 4 and 7 in a series.  You're only using 3 or 4 starters in the postseason, and only the top 3 or 4 relievers will be used in any significant way.  Nobody is starting the utility IFer in the playoffs.  You don't need, or use, a 25 man roster in the playoffs.

 

The Twins minor league system has already provided them with the basics needed to win.  If Sano, Buxton, Polanco, Berrios, Kepler, et al aren't good enough to contend in 2017, might as well trade them all off and start over.  But they are good enough, so what's needed is to man up and go find the help they need, and start doing it now.

 

 

[drjim]

None of this makes much sense to me.

 

I don't understand how, on the one hand, we don't have a good enough minor league system for any other team to want any of it in trade, but if we just hold onto those minor leaguers, they'll magically turn into everything needed to win the WS.

 

I don't understand what the previous regime has to do with what the current regime should do, nor do I believe the holes the team had "for the last decade" have anything to do with 2017.

 

I don't understand arguing, on the one hand, that good players by themselves don't win ("Trout"), and then arguing, on the other hand, against providing them some help.

 

I don't understand arguing that the Twins won't sign high dollar free agents, and also arguing against trades. That leaves only the minor leagues...and you've already said the minor league system doesn't have much talent.

 

Somewhat off topic, but I also strongly disagree that it "takes all 25 guys on the roster to win in the playoffs." It takes all of the 25 man, and most all of the 40 man roster to get to the playoffs. Once you're there, it's about the top 15-18 players on your team. You said it yourself...you'd be fine with Berrios starting games 1, 4 and 7 in a series. You're only using 3 or 4 starters in the postseason, and only the top 3 or 4 relievers will be used in any significant way. Nobody is starting the utility IFer in the playoffs. You don't need, or use, a 25 man roster in the playoffs.

 

The Twins minor league system has already provided them with the basics needed to win. If Sano, Buxton, Polanco, Berrios, Kepler, et al aren't good enough to contend in 2017, might as well trade them all off and start over. But they are good enough, so what's needed is to man up and go find the help they need, and start doing it now.

Good stuff.

 

Don't think there is a meaningful trade to be had for a month, but if they can hang around, which would involve a couple things to break their way, there will be some upgrades available that won't crush the farm system.

 

The AL, perhaps outside Houston, really isn't that good.

[Jham]

 

None of this makes much sense to me.

 

I don't understand how, on the one hand, we don't have a good enough minor league system for any other team to want any of it in trade, but if we just hold onto those minor leaguers, they'll magically turn into everything needed to win the WS.

 

I don't understand what the previous regime has to do with what the current regime should do, nor do I believe the holes the team had "for the last decade" have anything to do with 2017.

 

I don't understand arguing, on the one hand, that good players by themselves don't win ("Trout"), and then arguing, on the other hand, against providing them some help.

 

I don't understand arguing that the Twins won't sign high dollar free agents, and also arguing against trades.  That leaves only the minor leagues...and you've already said the minor league system doesn't have much talent.

 

Somewhat off topic, but I also strongly disagree that it "takes all 25 guys on the roster to win in the playoffs."  It takes all of the 25 man, and most all of the 40 man roster to get to the playoffs.  Once you're there, it's about the top 15-18 players on your team.  You said it yourself...you'd be fine with Berrios starting games 1, 4 and 7 in a series.  You're only using 3 or 4 starters in the postseason, and only the top 3 or 4 relievers will be used in any significant way.  Nobody is starting the utility IFer in the playoffs.  You don't need, or use, a 25 man roster in the playoffs.

 

The Twins minor league system has already provided them with the basics needed to win.  If Sano, Buxton, Polanco, Berrios, Kepler, et al aren't good enough to contend in 2017, might as well trade them all off and start over.  But they are good enough, so what's needed is to man up and go find the help they need, and start doing it now.

Can't like this post enough Chief.  Good starting pitching is the hardest thing to find in baseball.  Unless you want to pin the hopes of Sano, Buxton, Kep, et al on an expensive reclamation project like Hughes, Nolasco, Santana, or Pelfrey, A trade is the only way to acquire an actual quality arm without having to pay over-the-top prices for more years than you will contend.  I'm not saying those aren't good investments, what with insurance and the ability to trade players midway through expensive contracts, but our team doesn't do that.  

I think the part of Pettit's post that struck the wrong nerve was use of the term ANY PROSPECT in suggesting that the Twins simply hold out and cross our fingers.  A good organization will always look to add value and talent.  One name left of his list was Kohl Stewart.  Twins fans have been nervous about him for 3 years.  MLB followers for about 1.5.  Now he's not really named among our future pieces.  Maybe we missed the opportunity to trade him, maybe someone else thinks they can turn him around.  If Stewart never makes it, if Wimmer never makes it, well, it's better to get something rather than nothing, especially with first rounders.  Kiriloff is coming off surgery.  Jay is by no means a sure thing.  Gonsalves has limited upside, and a big reputation.  Ditto Nick Gordon and Zack Granite (IMO). We have some pieces.  I don't want to get rid of them, but they're not all going to be better than league average players, and some of them will probably be bad or not make it all.
 

[drjim]

You had me until the Gordon reference. He's legit.

 

Anyone else in the system could be traded (in the right deal) without too much worry.

[drivlikejehu]

 

The Twins minor league system has already provided them with the basics needed to win.  If Sano, Buxton, Polanco, Berrios, Kepler, et al aren't good enough to contend in 2017, might as well trade them all off and start over.  But they are good enough, so what's needed is to man up and go find the help they need, and start doing it now.

 

The Twins have some good position players but are nowhere close to having "the basics needed to win." They have one of the worst pitching staffs in baseball - they can deal every single prospect and still be way below average. There is no in-season solution to the problem.

 

The Twins may well need to deal prospects for pitching, but the time to do it is in the off-season, and in conjunction with free agent signings. They didn't go all-in for this year after losing 103 games the year before . . . if you think that was a mistake, fine, but it's too late now.

Edited May 23, 2017 by drivlikejehu

[Mike Sixel]

 

Jeff Samardzija seems to be available every year for just that purpose. One year, some supposed genius even traded Addison Russell for him. He's probably available now to a team willing to take his salary. However, he's never helped anybody win anything. The Brewers' trade for CC Sabathia is probably the best outcome, and they had to give up a higher-rated player than the Twins have, along with Brantley and two other players - and they still bombed out of the first round of the playoffs. The Royals got Johnny Cueto and Ben Zobrist, but that was a unique team and probably had a better chance to make the World Series. They're paying for it now.

 

Of course the Royals are paying for it now. That's part of the price of acquiring talent thru trade of prospects. Cleveland also made trades, so did the Cubs. I'd argue the Twins are still paying the price for not trading Aaron Hicks (and whatever else) for Cliff Lee......

[Mike Sixel]

I agree with Chief. You can't argue they have no prospects, and argue they shouldn't trade them because they need them for the future of the team. Either you think they are good and valuable, or the farm system won't be able to deliver enough players to make this team relevant any time soon. 

[Oldgoat_MN]

The Diamondbacks call. They have thrown in the towel and want to save some money toward a rebuild. You negotiate. We give them Randy Rosario, Felix Jorge, Kyle Stewart, Stephen Gansalves, Englb Vielma, Daniel Palka, Zach Granite, Tanner English and Zander Weil. We get Zach Greinke. We're taking on $150M+.

This is how the Tigers have restocked their MLB team for years. We can't afford to do that kind of thing as often as they have, but we could swing something like this.

Spend the rest of the year getting the BP staffed with the best we have, getting whatever playing time some position players need, fine tuning. Identifying exactly what we need to acquire in the off-season to make a serious playoff push.

I would expect a playoff team in 2018. One that could go places.

 

Would you do that trade?

 

* yes, I know no one would ever want that many 40-man players - it's a hypothetical question *

[USAFChief]

 

The Twins have some good position players but are nowhere close to having "the basics needed to win." They have one of the worst pitching staffs in baseball - they can deal every single prospect and still be way below average. There is no in-season solution to the problem.

 

The Twins may well need to deal prospects for pitching, but the time to do it is in the off-season, and in conjunction with free agent signings. They didn't go all-in for this year after losing 103 games the year before . . . if you think that was a mistake, fine, but it's too late now.

Add one legit starter, 2 relievers from the minors, and suddenly this team looks a lot different to me.

 

Nobody--NOBODY--has dominant pitching up and down the staff.   And if you DO have it, it's fleeting.  Look at the Mets from a couple years ago...everybody's darling, all that young pitching.  They were going to dominate baseball for half a decade.  

 

You don't need 5 great starters to get to the postseason.  And you shouldn't count on tomorrow being better than today, if you just wait.

[howieramone2]

 

None of this makes much sense to me.

 

I don't understand how, on the one hand, we don't have a good enough minor league system for any other team to want any of it in trade, but if we just hold onto those minor leaguers, they'll magically turn into everything needed to win the WS.

 

I don't understand what the previous regime has to do with what the current regime should do, nor do I believe the holes the team had "for the last decade" have anything to do with 2017.

 

I don't understand arguing, on the one hand, that good players by themselves don't win ("Trout"), and then arguing, on the other hand, against providing them some help.

 

I don't understand arguing that the Twins won't sign high dollar free agents, and also arguing against trades.  That leaves only the minor leagues...and you've already said the minor league system doesn't have much talent.

 

Somewhat off topic, but I also strongly disagree that it "takes all 25 guys on the roster to win in the playoffs."  It takes all of the 25 man, and most all of the 40 man roster to get to the playoffs.  Once you're there, it's about the top 15-18 players on your team.  You said it yourself...you'd be fine with Berrios starting games 1, 4 and 7 in a series.  You're only using 3 or 4 starters in the postseason, and only the top 3 or 4 relievers will be used in any significant way.  Nobody is starting the utility IFer in the playoffs.  You don't need, or use, a 25 man roster in the playoffs.

 

The Twins minor league system has already provided them with the basics needed to win.  If Sano, Buxton, Polanco, Berrios, Kepler, et al aren't good enough to contend in 2017, might as well trade them all off and start over.  But they are good enough, so what's needed is to man up and go find the help they need, and start doing it now.

Bingo!

[Deduno Abides]

I agree with Chief. You can't argue they have no prospects, and argue they shouldn't trade them because they need them for the future of the team. Either you think they are good and valuable, or the farm system won't be able to deliver enough players to make this team relevant any time soon.

 

Mike, I'm not "arguing" anything about the Twins' prospects. All the teams you mentioned had two things the Twins don't. 1. A strong team with excellent players throughout the rotation, bullpen and batting order. 2. Top rated prospects. The Twins' offense is pretty good, but there are major holes in their rotation and bullpen that need more than one or two pieces to fill. Further, they do not have prospects like Gleyber Torres or Clint Frazier who can headline a trade for the type of star player who would make the needed impact.

 

Let me put this another way. Let's say the Twins need one good starter and two good relievers - people who are better than Kevin Jepsen and Jeff Samardzija. Who would you target and what do you think the Twins could offer that would get the deal done?

Edited May 23, 2017 by Deduno Abides

[Mike Sixel]

 

Mike, I'm not "arguing" anything about the Twins' prospects. All the teams you mentioned had two things the Twins don't. 1. A strong team with excellent players throughout the rotation, bullpen and batting order. 2. Top rated prospects. The Twins' offense is pretty good, but there are major holes in their rotation and bullpen that need more than one or two pieces to fill. Further, they do not have prospects like Gleyber Torres or Clint Frazier who can headline a trade for the type of star player who would make the needed impact.

Let me put this another way. Let's say the Twins need one good starter and two good relievers - people who are better than Kevin Jepsen and Jeff Samardzija. Who would you target and what do you think the Twins could offer that would get the deal done?

 

the argument being made was that the farm system didn't have good players, while also arguing that we need to keep those players to build for the future. It wasn't about where the Twins were in teh rebuild. It wasn't about who they should trade for. That's a different discussion, completely.

 

People here are saying both:

 

the twins don't have much minor league talent

the twins can't trade their prospects because they need those guys to be competitive.

 

It is hard to see how both of those are true, to some of us.

[drivlikejehu]

 

The Diamondbacks call. They have thrown in the towel and want to save some money toward a rebuild. You negotiate. We give them Randy Rosario, Felix Jorge, Kyle Stewart, Stephen Gansalves, Englb Vielma, Daniel Palka, Zach Granite, Tanner English and Zander Weil. We get Zach Greinke. We're taking on $150M+.

This is how the Tigers have restocked their MLB team for years. We can't afford to do that kind of thing as often as 

 

The D'backs would laugh at this joke of an offer. No one wants guys like Jorge, Vielma, Palka, etc. Classic internet fantasy trade.

 

 

Add one legit starter, 2 relievers from the minors, and suddenly this team looks a lot different to me.

 

Nobody--NOBODY--has dominant pitching up and down the staff.   And if you DO have it, it's fleeting.  Look at the Mets from a couple years ago...everybody's darling, all that young pitching.  They were going to dominate baseball for half a decade.  

 

You don't need 5 great starters to get to the postseason.  And you shouldn't count on tomorrow being better than today, if you just wait.

 

Who meets your definition of legit starter?

 

Also, what is your rest-of-season projection if the Twins stand pat? Fangraphs has it at 78 - the WAR benefit from your suggestion is not even close to enough. 

[drjim]

 

Of course the Royals are paying for it now. That's part of the price of acquiring talent thru trade of prospects. Cleveland also made trades, so did the Cubs. I'd argue the Twins are still paying the price for not trading Aaron Hicks (and whatever else) for Cliff Lee......

 

Hicks for Lee was a nice story, but not a reality. Ms were never doing that.

[Oldgoat_MN]

 

The D'backs would laugh at this joke of an offer. No one wants guys like Jorge, Vielma, Palka, etc. Classic internet fantasy trade.

That's doesn't answer the question. The answer, for most people, is "yes".

Now take out Jorge and Rosario and add in Fernando Romero. Take out Vielma and add in Gordon.

Now do you do that trade?

[drivlikejehu]

 

That's doesn't answer the question. The answer, for most people, is "yes".

Now take out Jorge and Rosario and add in Fernando Romero. Take out Vielma and add in Gordon.

Now do you do that trade?

 

I would have to do an analysis before I could determine what I'd give up. Note that Greinke has a limited no trade clause and might very well exercise it to block a trade to the Twins.

[Deduno Abides]

the argument being made was that the farm system didn't have good players, while also arguing that we need to keep those players to build for the future. It wasn't about where the Twins were in teh rebuild. It wasn't about who they should trade for. That's a different discussion, completely.

 

People here are saying both:

 

the twins don't have much minor league talent

the twins can't trade their prospects because they need those guys to be competitive.

 

It is hard to see how both of those are true, to some of us.

The Twins have some good depth in the minors and if things break right, a few of them could be pretty good. However, they don't have the highly rated trade chips needed to get players like Sabathia, Cueto, Miller and Chapman, AND the big league team needed more than one player of that quality - perhaps at least three - to really do something this year.

[kab21]

 

That's doesn't answer the question. The answer, for most people, is "yes".

Now take out Jorge and Rosario and add in Fernando Romero. Take out Vielma and add in Gordon.

Now do you do that trade?

I do that trade. It is too much money and too many years (age) but unless the Twins add a front line starter (or two) they aren't going anywhere. The rest of the pieces are starting to fall into place.

[chpettit19]

 

the argument being made was that the farm system didn't have good players, while also arguing that we need to keep those players to build for the future. It wasn't about where the Twins were in teh rebuild. It wasn't about who they should trade for. That's a different discussion, completely.

 

People here are saying both:

 

the twins don't have much minor league talent

the twins can't trade their prospects because they need those guys to be competitive.

 

It is hard to see how both of those are true, to some of us.

I wasn't saying there was no talent in the system. I understand how it can be perceived that way, but it wasn't my intent. The most likely outcome of the current system is that it will provide 0 star players, but will produce a number of solid MLB players. The current Twins team has a few guys who could turn into stars, a handful of guys who will be solid players for a number of years, and some old guys we shouldn't be counting on beyond a year or 2. The current pitching staff (starters and bullpen) have 1 guy who may be above average, a handful of guys who can be average (#3 starter, solid bullpen arm), and a whole bunch of junk. Trading away all of your depth in the minors for a single starter gives your pitching staff 2 possible above average starters, a handful of guys who can be (emphasis on can be) average, and a whole bunch of junk without any real depth coming from the minors. That doesn't help the 2017 Twins let alone the 2018-2022 Twins. And while we have good prospects and depth in the minors we don't have anyone that gets you a top ranked pitcher. As someone pointed out earlier it took a top 25 prospect to get a Drew Pomeranz last year. Piling a whole bunch of mid level prospects doesn't get you a #1 or 2 starter. Teams want big time prospects. That means it takes Gordon and Gonsalves to even start a conversation for a pitcher who may actually help.

 

To me this all comes down to the fact that this Twins team is more of a mirage than a true competitor this year. And to me you just don't sacrifice anything of the future for a run during a year where you're not realistically going to win in the playoffs. Getting to the playoffs and getting swept, again, isn't something worth hoping for for me. I know it'd be nice to be there, but I'd prefer they run with the team they have. Win 78-83 games. Get the young guys a ton of at bats while mixing in the guys in the minors here and there to start seeing if they're going to be pieces of the team the next couple years. Draft Kyle Wright and let him advance quickly if he's showing he can. Get him some time in the ML pen at the end of the year and hope he's running 1,2,3 with Berrios and Mejia by June next year with Gonsalves joining by then as well and Romero and Stewart getting cups of coffee to fill in for injuries. Fix the bullpen this offseason and be ready to roll for years.

 

I think much of this is a difference in approach between some of us. I want sustained success with realistic shots at the WS. I don't think trading for a single player this year accomplishes either of those things and actually sets the Twins back from being able to do either because it depletes their depth. I want them to complete this rebuild and then be able to trade both major leaguers and prospects to help maintain success. They're never going to be big players in free agency as the Pohlads just won't pay for that. But trading some major leaguers (probably Sano if we're being realistic) as the reach the end of arbitration to bring in big time prospects and also trading some prospects to help fill holes balances things out and lets them stay competitive. The team is just too far away right now to start making trades for individual players.

[diehardtwinsfan]

 

The Diamondbacks call. They have thrown in the towel and want to save some money toward a rebuild. You negotiate. We give them Randy Rosario, Felix Jorge, Kyle Stewart, Stephen Gansalves, Englb Vielma, Daniel Palka, Zach Granite, Tanner English and Zander Weil. We get Zach Greinke. We're taking on $150M+.

This is how the Tigers have restocked their MLB team for years. We can't afford to do that kind of thing as often as they have, but we could swing something like this.

Spend the rest of the year getting the BP staffed with the best we have, getting whatever playing time some position players need, fine tuning. Identifying exactly what we need to acquire in the off-season to make a serious playoff push.

I would expect a playoff team in 2018. One that could go places.

 

Would you do that trade?

 

* yes, I know no one would ever want that many 40-man players - it's a hypothetical question *

 

I might make that trade.  Only a couple guys on that list that I'd care about.  I think the DBack would want a bit more ceiling for Grienke...

[Otto von Ballpark]

 

Hicks for Lee was a nice story, but not a reality. Ms were never doing that.

I believe the rumor was Hicks and Ramos for Lee.  Hicks was BA's #19 prospect in baseball entering that season, Ramos #58.

 

The Mariners eventually accepted Smoak (#13) plus a few marginal prospects.

 

Gibson was #61 and rising in 2010, so he could have been in play too.

 

Of course, the best time to get Lee was the 2009-2010 offseason.  The Phillies inexplicably dumped him that winter for a very light return.

[USAFChief]

 

The D'backs would laugh at this joke of an offer. No one wants guys like Jorge, Vielma, Palka, etc. Classic internet fantasy trade.

 

 

 

Who meets your definition of legit starter?

 

Also, what is your rest-of-season projection if the Twins stand pat? Fangraphs has it at 78 - the WAR benefit from your suggestion is not even close to enough. 

1.  legit starter:  better than what the Twins are running out at 4 and 5 right now.  

 

2.  I pay very little attention to Fangraphs, even less to their projections, and even less than that to WAR, so I don't care about any of that.  The Twins are currently on pace for 90 wins.  We're a quarter of the way through the season.  That's reality, and with some help, I see no reason they can't come close to maintaining that pace.

[Otto von Ballpark]

Re: Greinke, the Diamondbacks are doing quite well so far in 2017, leading the wild card race and only 2 games behind the Rockies in their division, with a fairly young team.  Goldschmidt is controlled through 2019.  Lamb, Ray, and Walker are controlled through 2020. The odds of them dealing Greinke this season are pretty low, even for a top prospect return (for which the Twins may not even have the pieces).