Time for Duffey at SP?

[Oldgoat_MN]

I just keep coming back to this:

We have Baxendale, Busenitz and Rucinski in AAA all sporting a WHIP of <= 1.000. Busenitz has a 11.5 K/9, Rucinski has a 11.4 K/9. Hildenberger and Boshers have 9.8 K/9 with a WHIP <1.300. Burdi is in AA with a 0.765 WHIP and posting 10.6 K/9. We have potentiall guys for the bullpen.

 

We have a dearth of SP options. I do not think it would 'ruin' Duffey to try him in the rotation. We may find that it works better than Gibson/Tepesch.

[Doomtints]

 

I'm not comparing Duffey and Liriano as pitchers or potential injury cases.  It's just a simple fact that young starters frequently do a month or two in a long relief role for a variety or reasons and come back to starting.  It's not jerking them around, it's common practice.

 

The Twins got excellent value out of Brian Duensing by "jerking him around" in 2009-2010.  The Cardinals with Joe Kelly and Lance Lynn a few years ago, etc.

 

1) Duffey is 26.  He is middle aged by baseball standards.

2) Duensing failed quickly as a starter and that whole debacle killed Slowey's career.  I notice you're not using Slowey as an example of a guy moved between SP and the pen.

3) We can save time if you just say, "No matter what anyone says, I want Duffey to start. The fact that there is an easy counter to every point I can make on this topic does not matter."  Then we can agree to disagree and move on.

[Doomtints]

 

I reject your premise.

 

While it's possible to destroy a pitcher from, say, overuse, it's far more common for pitchers to simply have injuries because flinging a tiny object with pinpoint precision at near 100 MPH hundreds and thousands of times is, well, hard.

It's the motion involved with curveballs/sliders that cause the problem. I'd like to see a 100 MPH curveball. 

[Otto von Ballpark]

 

Except he's not in a long-relief role I don't think (I do think you have a decent point they could have pitched him longer as a means of stretching him out, but he also only threw 19 pitches).

 

He's been a fireman middle-reliever.

 

Earliest Duffey has come in is the 5th. He's done that 3 times (he went 3 innings in one of those outings, 0.1 and 1.0 in the others). Hes come on in the 6th 6 times, and 7th 6 times. That's not a long reliever.

He's pitched 2+ innings each of his last 3 outings.  He's some kind of long reliever right now, even if it's not the longest or earliest.

 

Yesterday he came in to start a clean inning with a 6 run lead.  That's not exactly fireman usage either!  Which sort of plays into my contention that he hasn't been quite so valuable in relief as many are portraying -- valuable, sure, but not enough to scrub his name from the SP depth chart when the alternative is a struggling Gibson.

[Otto von Ballpark]

 

1) Duffey is 26.  He is middle aged by baseball standards.

2) Duensing failed quickly as a starter and that whole debacle killed Slowey's career.  I notice you're not using Slowey as an example of a guy moved between SP and the pen.

3) We can save time if you just say, "No matter what anyone says, I want Duffey to start. The fact that there is an easy counter to every point I can make on this topic does not matter."  Then we can agree to disagree and move on.

Duensing did not fail quickly as a starter in 2009 or 2010.  He was quite useful as a starter both of those seasons.  We probably don't make the playoffs in 2009 without him.  Given his profile, I doubt his later mediocrity had anything to do with his usage pattern those early seasons -- credit to the Twins for capitalizing when he was performing well.

 

Slowey actually went on the DL when he went to the bullpen in 2011, before they even tried returning him to the rotation.  And he spent time on the DL each of the two previous seasons as a starter too.  Not sure how any of that is relevant to Duffey, who I don't believe has had any notable health concerns.

 

You're not finding counter points, you're find examples of players who have failed. I don't doubt Duffey might fail too.  But fear of failure is not rational decision-making.  It's still common practice to move starters to long relief temporarily and back again. I doubt that the failure rate among such pitchers is notably different than the failure rate among pitchers overall, but if you have data (not anecdotes) that suggest such a conclusion, I would welcome it.

 

If there is something specific about Duffey that suggests a move now would be problematic, I would more than welcome that information.  So far, all of the concerns have been pretty generic and anecdotal, and seem to be portraying Duffey as more of a "good luck charm" in his current role than as a capable pitcher.

[jimbo92107]

 

We need to build up our pen and our rotation. He is a piece of the bullpen that is working. Leave it alone.

Of all the things mommy told me to leave alone, my bullpen was not one of them. Let's agree not to use that as a euphemism...except it already is a euphemism...ghaa!

[jimbo92107]

 

Liriano was 22 in 2006 and blew out his arm in the same year and was never the same again.  You are literally using a player as an example who the Twins destroyed in his rookie year.  No one was expecting Liriano to become a 99 ERA+ player for his career. What a tragedy, from ace to #5 in 16 starts.

Duffey is 26 and doesn't have the same velocity or repertoire that Liriano had, regardless, nor does he have the same potential.

Liriano is not a good comp for Duffey's situation. Liriano was doomed to arm problems by his violent mechanics, where Duffey's mechanics appear to be quite smooth and sustainable. Duffey's challenge has been developing a formula for getting righties out as well as lefties. His physical stamina is not a question. He now appears to have found his magical formula, so I see good reason to try him out again as a starter. Meanwhile, the strength of this year's farm system is definitely relievers, not starters.

 

Can the Twins find an arm to replace Duffey in the pen? You could start with Gibson, who needs to learn to pitch inside whether he wants to or not. Tell Gibby to throw inside or be stuck in the pen forever. Next up, Trevor Hildenberger. Then, Melotakis in AA. 

[Otto von Ballpark]

Seth has an article up about "trusting the process." Duffey has been a starter for 4 years, and less than 2 months ago was in camp as a starter (and did pretty well) and almost won the 5th starter job. I think the process would say he should still be in that mix, able to earn that job again as his performance and team needs dictate.

[drivlikejehu]

 

It's the motion involved with curveballs/sliders that cause the problem. I'd like to see a 100 MPH curveball. 

 

Recent research indicates that this isn't true, and that in fact velocity (of the arm) is the primary reason for arm injuries.

 

With respect to Duffey, I think he has a good case to go back into the rotation and I think there's also a good case for him to be in the bullpen.

 

There is definitely zero case for him to be a low-leverage 2-inning reliever. Falvine need to intervene and insist that Molitor use Duffey appropriately. Right now his abilities are being wasted.

[Riverbrian]

 

Is anyone calling him a "failed starter"?

I'm calling him a successful reliever.

The two things are not mutually exclusive.

Leave him where he is, jerking him around won't help anyone.

 

Is anyone calling him a "failed starter"?  Yes

 

I'm calling him a successful reliever. OK

 

The two things are not mutually exclusive. OK

 

Leave him where he is, jerking him around won't help anyone. If he pitches decently as a starter. He helps the team... the manager... the front office... the fans and he really helps his career at the same time. 

 

[Riverbrian]

 

Thrylos specifically called him a "failed starter" in this very thread.

 

Last I heard, the front office said they still viewed Duffey as a starter.  But he had to go to the pen this spring because there was no room in the rotation.  Well, now there's room in the rotation!

 

And Duffey has been a starter virtually his entire pro career.  He's spent just the last month and a half in a long relief role.  Moving him back into the rotation at this point is hardly "jerking him around" it's actually pretty common for young pitchers (Liriano 2006 comes to mind).

 

Add Peacock, Phelps and Pomeranz to the list. That's just guys who start with P off the top of my head. 

 

 

[Riverbrian]

 

Interestingly enough, the best starter (in 32 GS 194-2/3 IP not Duffey's 10 games 58-1/3 IP SSS half of it after the rosters expanded) was Kyle Gibson who struggled in 2017.

 

Is he a failed starter?

 

A. If only pitchers who pitched the entire year are eligible for the award... Yeah... I'll go with Gibson with his 3.84 ERA... 11-11 WL Record... and I'll say that Tommy Milone was a close 2nd with his 3.92 ERA...  9-5 WL Record. .

 

B. If Tommy Milone doesn't qualify either.... Well then yeah for sure... Gibson clearly out pitched Pelfrey and Hughes.  

 

C. If you count those 10 starts by Duffey and not hold being asked to pitch in the minors against him.  I remember being really impressed with him. 3.10 ERA... 5-1 WL Record. He really threw great when we needed someone to throw great. Facing those September callups. It was Santana and Duffey keeping us in the race by winning nearly every time they stepped on the mound.  

 

D. For his career... Gibson has made 105 starts with a 4.80 ERA. I'm not going to call him a failed starter yet because he may get another start and that might be the start that puts it all together for him... but yeah... my finger is on the button.  

 

E. I got nothing for E... I just like doing things in fives. 

 

 

[Riverbrian]

If I could sum up how I feel. 

 

I think Duffey could be a great reliever and I have no problem with him being a reliever if we didn't need starting pitchers. 

 

I think Duffey was great in 2015 as a starter and he lost it in 2016 as a starter. 

 

I think the need at Starting Pitcher is going to be critical at some point if this team keeps winning and I see Duffey as the best option right now based on how he is looking at this moment and how he looked in 2015. 

 

If the Twins want to leave Duffey in the bullpen because he lacks a third pitch or whatever reason... I'll be OK with that... But I'd like the Twins to also tell me who they will start if Gibson doesn't turn it around or if someone gets hurt or if someone in the current rotation gives up baseball for a new career with the Minnesota DNR.  

[jorgenswest]

One way or another the Twins can make better use of Duffey. He is 5th in average leverage index among the relievers slightly behind Pressly and well behind Rogers, Belisle and Kintzler. I believe he has more upside than Gibson or Hughes in the rotation. Improving the 4th or 5th starter is far more valuable than the 4th or 5th guy out of the pen.

 

They have two opportunities to increase his impact on the team. Flip him with Belisle or put him in the rotation. Continuing to use him in a lower leverage role from the pen seems like the worst of the three options.

[kab21]

The problem with this 'the Twins have options in the bullpen' is that they need several of those options to work out before they have a decent bullpen. Right now I don't subtract good RP'ers from that despite the massive need in the rotation.

[Doomtints]

 

If he pitches decently as a starter. 

 

Which he did not do.

[70charger]

 

Which he did not do.

 

Except when he did.

 

This is an odd blanket statement to make for a guy who had one partial season where he was really good, and one partial season where he was really bad.

[Doomtints]

 

Except when he did.

 

This is an odd blanket statement to make for a guy who had one partial season where he was really good, and one partial season where he was really bad.

 

One thing that works is that you can take two smaller sample sizes from the same data set and combine them into a larger, more trustworthy data set. Try that with Duffey and let me know what you find.

Here's what we've got on Duffey:

 

1) Scouting reports that always predicted him to be a good bullpen arm.

2) Him being a good bullpen arm, as predicted.

3) Him being initially called up for an emergency start, but by doing well and surprising the team, the manager went on record several times stating things like, "I'll keep him starting as long as he defies the odds, but we think he's a bullpen arm."

4) A two-pitch repertoire that typically does not work for starters, but can be just fine for the bullpen (see Glen Perkins).  

5) A guy who, as a starter, was OK for 2 innings but whose ERA ballooned to 5.57 in the 3rd, 7.67 in the 4th, and 6.43 in the 5th -- a predictable problem for 2-pitch pitchers.

6) A guy whose ERA as a starter on 4 days of rest was 5.51, and on 5 days rest was 7.11.  As a reliever he has a sub-3.00 ERA.

7) In his miragey 2015 campaign that people are calling great, he exited his 10 games with a total of 11 runners on base, including a couple of bases loaded jams. He paper stats benefited from the bullpen.

[Riverbrian]

 

Which he did not do.

 

Please refrain from shouting like this when responding to idiots like me or any other idiot who posts something that you disagree with. 

 

Sincerly,

 

Riverbrian

 

[70charger]

 

 

7) In his miragey 2015 campaign that people are calling great, he exited his 10 games with a total of 11 runners on base, including a couple of bases loaded jams. He paper stats benefited from the bullpen.

 

You going to do the same thing for last year, and find reasons that his performance wasn't as bad as it looked? Nah, of course you're not. Doesn't fit your narrative.

 

I looked at BBRef, and his OPS+ in 2015 was 133. He was not only unquestionably good, but unquestionably very good.

 

As to your point about aggregating the stats, sure I get that. But when you're unquestionably very good, and then inexplicably very bad, then isn't it at least the tiniest bit plausible that there's something else going on that "oh, no, he's just bad." Because that conclusion sounds ridiculous to me even when you add up his stats into one whole. Did you conclude that Santana was just garbage after the bad season(s) that he's had? Remember when Liriano used to switch off really good seasons with really bad seasons? Ever call him out for being terrible in unnecessarily large, bolded font?

 

He didn't have it last year. He's showed that he's been able to have it before. Why is it so pants-on-head crazy to think that we might want to give him another chance?

[twinsnorth49]

 

 

7) In his miragey 2015 campaign that people are calling great, he exited his 10 games with a total of 11 runners on base, including a couple of bases loaded jams. He paper stats benefited from the bullpen.

What does this mean? Is this one of those unscramble games?

 

Is it imagery?

 

I still don't get it.

[Linus]

What does this mean? Is this one of those unscramble games?

 

Is it imagery?

 

I still don't get it.

It's a Canadian expression.

[jimbo92107]

 

If I could sum up how I feel. 

 

I think Duffey could be a great reliever and I have no problem with him being a reliever if we didn't need starting pitchers. 

 

I think Duffey was great in 2015 as a starter and he lost it in 2016 as a starter. 

 

I think the need at Starting Pitcher is going to be critical at some point if this team keeps winning and I see Duffey as the best option right now based on how he is looking at this moment and how he looked in 2015. 

 

If the Twins want to leave Duffey in the bullpen because he lacks a third pitch or whatever reason... I'll be OK with that... But I'd like the Twins to also tell me who they will start if Gibson doesn't turn it around or if someone gets hurt or if someone in the current rotation gives up baseball for a new career with the Minnesota DNR.  

Totally agree. We can all see that the strength of this year's AAA and AA class is relief pitchers, partly because most of the high-talent starters are either on the DL or just not ready. 

 

Tyler Duffey is great in the pen, granted. However, in his most recent performances as a starter, without his new angle trick, he was significantly better than this year's versions of Santiago, Gibson, Hughes and Mejia. As I mentioned before, it would be much easier for the Twins to plug Duffey into the rotation, then find a couple relievers in AAA and AA to replace him, than to find a sure-fire #3, #4 or #5 starter in the minors. This year the farm has a plethora of talented relievers, but nothing much (at the moment) for starters. 

 

BTW, I acknowledge that Slegers has been good, and there might be a couple other guys that would be okay. But none of them has the kind of swing-and-miss stuff Duffey has. Start Duffey, throw Gibson in the pen, DFA Wilk, and promote Hildenberger or Boshers, or both. 

[diehardtwinsfan]

I'd argue that this is an option to see if Duffey can succeed as a starter.  He can go back to being a reliever if he fails, and I'm fine with that... I just think it would be silly not to reconsider here.  Our next options right now are Wheeler and Sleegers... Neither really excite me and both require 40 man adds.

[Doomtints]

 

What does this mean? Is this one of those unscramble games?

 

Is it imagery?

 

I still don't get it.

 

You don't know what a mirage is?

[twinsnorth49]

 

You don't know what a mirage is?

Yes.

[bighat]

I think the Twins are in desperate need of a starter, and of course everyone's eyes are going to bulge when they see Duffey routinely succeeding in the 'pen.  But what if that's where he belongs?  Duffey's not broken, why fix him?  I guess I'm torn here.  I wouldn't mind the Twins giving it a shot, but I'm not convinced that a turn in the rotation won't screw up Duffey again, and then we're out a good relief pitcher to boot!  Arrrgh!  

[Twodogs]

Why did they only pitch Duffy 6 pitches yesterday in a 15 inning game??

[Otto von Ballpark]

Why did they only pitch Duffy 6 pitches yesterday in a 15 inning game??

He threw 30 pitches the previous game. Although he had been used pretty sparingly lately prior to that, so he probably could have been a 1-2 inning option ahead of waving the white flag with Haley.

[Otto von Ballpark]

Interesting that we hear so much about "trusting the process" but the process gets thrown out the window when discussing not only Duffey (who was considered one of our top 5-6 starters just 2 months ago), but also Gibson, whose current performance level was deemed harmful to the club earlier this month, but now it's apparently totally OK just because Hughes went on the DL.

 

By any rational interpretation of "trusting the process", Gibson should still be working in AAA to earn a trip back to Minnesota, while Duffey would have already earned his second chance in the MLB rotation.