Time for Duffey at SP?

[jimbo92107]

Tyler Duffey is one of my favorite Twins, I won't hide from that fact. His mind-bending array of curve balls has my tender heart all aflutter. At the same time, I admit he's not a perfect pitcher. As much as his benders bend, his modest heater tends to be straight as a ruler, and his two-seamer is so-so. 

 

However, something has changed since Duffey retreated to the bullpen. Mainly, he discovered that he could increase the angle of his pitches to right handed batters by starting from the 3rd base side of the rubber. Suddenly his benders sweep almost impossibly far, like we see from legendary lefties. Suddenly he can throw his curve right at the front knee of a hitter, and it breaks past the plate, to the far side. Most hitters cannot make themselves keep their knee in the path of a ball traveling over 80 mph. The result is some gloriously clumsy swings as hitters are bailing and flailing helplessly. It's hard to cover the plate when your butt is flying the other way. 

 

Duffey's new trick also helps his fastball, which still isn't amazing, but now, when he throws it inside, the hitter has to wonder, will it bend a foot, or go straight? Is this ball going to hit my knee? This makes Duffey's inside fastballs much more intimidating. 

 

The overall impact of this change is that Duffey appears to have solved the problem that was preventing him from being a successful starter. He now appears to be reasonably effective against hitters on both sides of the plate. So, should the Twins test the waters of letting Duffey start, one more time? I believe they should. On the other hand, Duffey also is the team's most flexible relief pitcher, so maybe he's this season's Trevor May. 

 

Also, I have noticed another relief pitcher that is starting to look like a possible starter: Taylor Rogers. This young man appears to be filling out his frame, and his stuff appears more and more like something you might like in a starting pitcher. For the same reason as Duffey, Rogers may wind up sticking in the pen for now. The team needs reliable relievers as much as good starters. 

[Mill1634]

I don't think that we should move Duffey back to a starting pitcher. Not everyone is destined to be a starter. We may have found a mini version of Andrew miller, and that is just as valuable as a 4th starter, which Duffey is, if not more imo.

[Linus]

He would have to go back to aaa to get stretched out so it ain't gonna happen.

[mikelink45]

When a pitcher finds success in a role then I advocate leaving them where they succeed.  Going back and forth in a "May" scenario is only harmful to the pitcher.  Both he and Rogers seem suited for what they are doing and I do not hear much from the team about putting them into a rotational spot.  

[bird]

I vote I really really really like him where he is.

[drivlikejehu]

I think Duffey would probably provide more value in the rotation, but I don't see it happening.

[jorgenswest]

It isn't very easy to find a near league average starter and they are very expensive. Duffey had the best xFIP and SIERA of any Twins starter last year and was better than league average in those measures. the Twins can continue to run Hughes, Santiago and likely Gibson out there as the season progresses, but Duffey is likely better than any of the three. The starting pitching depth has already been tested with a losing start from Tepesch. How many more will we see while Duffey remains a 6th inning reliever?

 

Other teams find a way to get pitchers stretched out from pen to rotation. Last May 15, Danny Duffy went into the rotation. His first start was 3 innings. He made it into the 5th inning on his second start and he was stretched out for the third start. There is no reason the Twins couldn't follow the same path starting this Monday with Duffey.

[Danchat]

With Duffey's makeup and having just 2 effective pitches, I think that keeps him in the bullpen.  I just don't think he's a guy who can take on the same lineup through a 2nd and 3rd time around. I would like to see him take Belisle's role and become the setup reliever.

[70charger]

 

His mind-bending array of curve balls has my tender heart all aflutter.

 

I was sort of on the fence, but after that, I fully agree with you.

[Blake]

Last night when Hunter was talking about Duffey and describing what happens when certain pitches are thrown and the KC batter proceeded to do exactly as Hunter described, "Butt out, I'm out" I about died laughing. 

 

I am admit I'm torn but I wonder if Duffey isn't more valuable in the bullpen. With the way the game has changed, someone like Duffey is a very valuable piece of a dominate bullpen.

[Doomtints]

...the Twins can continue to run Hughes, Santiago and likely Gibson out there as the season progresses, but Duffey is likely better than any of the three.

 

Having a guy like Duffey in the pen gives the Twins the luxury of trying out new pitchers like Mejia.  It also gives them the luxury of working Hughes and Gibson back to form, assuming we see Gibson again this year.

 

If Duffey goes to the rotation and those two end up in the pen, that luxury is lost. The Twins will no longer have the reliable bullpen arm to back up a starter who had a bad day or a starter who needs more time to get into form. Do you expect Hughes to be able to take on that role? 

 

What you are suggesting will make the team weaker.

 

Also, I think it might be a stretch to say Duffey is better than Santiago. At best they are about even. Duffey has two pitches, and unless they invent a steel arm for him he is going to be tired by the time he faces a lineup for the third time in a game. Like all one- and two-pitch pitchers, he has to throw hard. He can't pace himself as much as pitchers with a larger arsenal can. The Twins always planned for him to be a reliever, he only started in the first place because there were no other options and he was, for a while, doing a good job.

[akmanak]

Because our bullpen is on such shakey ground, I think you keep Duffey in the pen.

[jimbo92107]

 

Having a guy like Duffey in the pen gives the Twins the luxury of trying out new pitchers like Mejia.  It also gives them the luxury of working Hughes and Gibson back to form, assuming we see Gibson again this year.

If Duffey goes to the rotation and those two end up in the pen, that luxury is lost. The Twins will no longer have the reliable bullpen arm to back up a starter who had a bad day or a starter who needs more time to get into form. Do you expect Hughes to be able to take on that role? 

 

What you are suggesting will make the team weaker.

 

Also, I think it might be a stretch to say Duffey is better than Santiago. At best they are about even. Duffey has two pitches, and unless they invent a steel arm for him he is going to be tired by the time he faces a lineup for the third time in a game. Like all one- and two-pitch pitchers, he has to throw hard. He can't pace himself as much as pitchers with a larger arsenal can. The Twins always planned for him to be a reliever, he only started in the first place because there were no other options and he was, for a while, doing a good job.

Good points, and your first point might be the most important. Duffey right now is the safety valve for Twins experiments with starting pitchers. If and when Mejia, Gibson, etc. implode, you have two guys to pitch three or more innings - Tyler Duffey and Justin Haley, with Taylor Rogers the third choice. 

 

I should add that Tyler Jay could probably walk into that mix, as soon as he's off the DL. Sadly, most of the Twins' best pitching prospects are either on the DL or not ready for their debut. 

[yarnivek1972]

Taylor Rogers needs to show he can get RHB out before being considered for a shot as a starter. He couldn't do it in the minors, which is why he was moved to the pen in the first place. In the majors, RHB have an OPS about .250 higher than LHB against Rogers. The split isn't nearly as glaring this year as it was last year, YET. But the year is young.

[Brock Beauchamp]

While Duffey might be able to start, I can't support the idea of moving guys out of the bullpen unless it's because they're terrible pitchers who are demoted/released.

[ashbury]

While Duffey might be able to start, I can't support the idea of moving guys out of the bullpen unless it's because they're terrible pitchers who are demoted/released.

Not on board with the notion of Jay coming to the majors as quickly as possible as a reliever, and eventually getting another shot at starting?

[Brock Beauchamp]

 

Not on board with the notion of Jay coming to the majors as quickly as possible as a reliever, and eventually getting another shot at starting?

I'm not against that idea but I want more than Jay. I want Jay, Burdi, and possibly another guy before I think about removing any (performing) arms from that clown car that resides beyond the Target Field outfield.

[kab21]

 

I'm not against that idea but I want more than Jay. I want Jay, Burdi, and possibly another guy before I think about removing any (performing) arms from that clown car that resides beyond the Target Field outfield.

Yes, but I really want somebody with some potential to be in the bullpen soon. The Twins have a lot of RP'ers (around age 26) performing really well in AA/AAA striking out 1 batter/inning with a low ERA. Let's see what these guys can do. We already know that Breslow and Belisle can't do much.

[Dantes929]

I am fine either way but I still think the success in 2015 vs the failure of 2016 vs the success of 2017 has nothing to do with anything except during his success he has had command of fastball and curve.   In failure he has been all over the place.   In success he has been on the corners.   If he has command he will do well either place.   If he doesn't he will not do well in either.   

[Twodogs]

I like Duffy too, but I think that the twins would probably leave Duffy in the pen for this year and maybe give him a shot at Spring Training to win a spot next year?  If there are 5 better choices than Duffy at that point then they put him back in the pen.  He is pretty versitile nonetheless.  Another question that I have is what is the future for Trevor May?  Will he be given a shot to start again after he recovers from his injury?  He has some pretty good potential, match that with Berrios and maybe the Twins have a decent 1, 2, 3 punch at some point in time?

[DocBauer]

IF...and it's kind of a big IF...the Twins give Mejia a shot and are patient with him, we could have a couple nice rookies in the rotation this season. That would also give us a 5 man rotation with Gibson in reserve. (Theoretically)

 

While Duffey's ST performance and some past success offers encouragement as a SP, I don't know that we are in a "must" situation at this time with the young Mejia and "getittogether" Gibson available. I'd keep him on the pen where he is successful

 

Now, an injury or two can change this situation, especially if a young bullpen arm or two is ready soon.

[Richie the Rally Goat]

I'm not against that idea but I want more than Jay. I want Jay, Burdi, and possibly another guy before I think about removing any (performing) arms from that clown car that resides beyond the Target Field outfield.

this. It's like trading with another team. Best course of action is to trade from a position of strength to improve a position of weakness. Moving big league relievers or close to big league relievers to minor/major league starters just shuffles the deck chairs on the Titanic.

 

I think the current course of action seems like the best way to go. If Santana and Berrios can keep this up, they can get by for a while.

[Otto von Ballpark]

I think the Duffey to SP argument presupposes that they would already be looking for pen upgrades. If Burdi was up a week or two ago and Duffy was staying stretched out to 2-3 innings, it would be an option now. Instead we've basically been treading water on a couple pen spots with Haley, Tepesch, and Wilk, and we're going to need a spot starter tomorrow and our only options are Wilk, Tepesch, and Gibson whether he's ready or not. (Also our only options if Mejia doesn't stick or Hughes falters more.)

[jimbo92107]

BTW, if the Twins assemble a light-out bullpen by adding prospects like Tyler Jay, Nick Burdy, Mason Melotakis, Jake Reed, and Trevor Hildenberger, then their pitching staff might resemble Kansas City's when they made their championship run. 

[Twodogs]

 

BTW, if the Twins assemble a light-out bullpen by adding prospects like Tyler Jay, Nick Burdy, Mason Melotakis, Jake Reed, and Trevor Hildenberger, then their pitching staff might resemble Kansas City's when they made their championship run. 

Thats assuming that those guys will be lights out in the Majors.  If they are then the Twins will be in pretty good shape.

[Otto von Ballpark]

Duffey was asked to protect the same 6 run lead as Breslow tonight. Although they waited until it was 8 runs to bring in Haley...

[TheLeviathan]

Duffey is a long man - with the depth in our rotation it's time to stretch him back out now.  Maybe that was part of the plan tonight?  (Blind hope....)

[Rosterman]

Though Kyle failed to show it, you would like to see him put together a string of 3-4 fine starts, just to increase his possible value, and go ahead and move him (same can be said for Santiago, Hughes and even Santana). But the chances of the Twins getting a return on Santiago (will be a free agent) or Hughes (injured and expensive) or Gibson (failing) is slim to none, sadly.

 

So the Twins have to look at their system. Who deserves to come up here and get an early look and try, and can still be sent back down if need be. Better to see what you have, give them a taste of the bigs, that retreads...at least at this point.

 

If anyone thinks the Twins are going all-the-way, more power to them./ If the Twins win, it will be a happy fluke. But the only way it translates into 2018 or 2019 is if you jettison many of the names on the roster, make sure your kids have some games, and open the bank for a real free agent or two...and NOT before mid next-season at best.

[jimbo92107]

Jack Morris's criticism of Kyle Gibson today was another reminder of how bullpen duty can offer a major league pitcher a chance to fix an aspect of his game. For Tyler Duffey, it allowed him to learn to increase his pitch angles to righties and lefties by standing on their side of the rubber. For Gibson, I would have him focus on learning to throw a certain percentage of pitches inside, to force batters to move their feet. For some reason Gibson shies away from pitching inside, and it's getting him killed. He has good stuff, but not that good. Morris is right - you've got to make guys move their feet, or they'll just lean out over the plate and crank line drives all day. 

 

Swap Gibson and Duffey. If nothing else, we'll get to see if Duffey's new trick works for more than a couple innings. 

[Halsey Hall]

I'd like him in the pen.  No way starting.