Article: Keith Law On The Twins And The 2017 Draft

[twinsfanstreif]

Do you guys put a lot of stock into the apparent "Tommy John Twist" that Wright does? I read a long article about it and it seems to have legs

[gunnarthor]

 

Do you guys put a lot of stock into the apparent "Tommy John Twist" that Wright does? I read a long article about it and it seems to have legs

Generally, no. That's beyond me. I expect that the Twins have scouts and mechanics are a big part of what they are looking at. If they think someone is a future TJ, they'd (hopefully) note that in their reports.

[drivlikejehu]

 

Frankly, I'm glad a 17 year old hasn't thrown a ton of off speed stuff and other pitches that are generally considered worse for your arm. 

 

Pretty much every single HS player is about projection. The way some here are typing, they would never, ever, take a HS player in round 1.

 

Well, change-ups aren't bad for your arm. But in any case, Greene's currently mediocre off-speed stuff is a huge risk factor. A lot of touted HS arms in the past already had a signature out pitch - Cole Hamels and the change-up, Josh Beckett and the curve, etc. 

 

I have nothing against HS picks, I just don't see 1-1 with Greene. In pro ball he'll sit mid-90s, which is fine but nothing that special these days, and very few prospects develop elite off-speed pitches unless they already had a natural feel for it as an amateur. Plus I think Greene is a particularly bad fit for the Twins, given their pitcher development track record - for sure Greene needs a ton of development, even if you like him as a prospect.

 

I'm not a scout, so I don't say what the Twins should do, but passing on Greene makes complete sense.

[Mike Sixel]

 

Do you guys put a lot of stock into the apparent "Tommy John Twist" that Wright does? I read a long article about it and it seems to have legs

 

All anecdotal, from what I've read.

[Siehbiscuit]

I don't know about you, but I start thinking that the Twins should had passed on Buxton, based on his performance so far and drafted someone like Corey Seager or Addisson Russell instead.

 

What about international kids? There's no stats, it's interviews and scouting and projection.

 

And I think you are underselling the 'athleticism' dynamic. Defining athleticism is two parts, IMO. The physical traits (run fast, jump high, etc), but then there is also the hand-eye coordination portion. I have coached for 16 years and many kids have one of the two components but if you are missing the other and the fatal flaw is exposed. Combine the aptitude and Greene's pedigree and experience and it is a high potential recipe.

 

But, he could still bust. Championships level teams should take risks, IMO, especially when Twins will NEVER acquire these types via free agency.

[Thrylos]

 

Championships level teams should take risks, IMO, especially when Twins will NEVER acquire these types via free agency.

 

This might be correct, but the Twins took a similar risk in Stewart and seems that it did not pan out.  I just don't trust that group to draft high school pitchers.

 

 

There is another issue also:  A College player would a. be able to help the Twins in 1-2 seasons and b. he would be about the same age as the good young core of the team, and with Sano 4 seasons away from free agency, this core might not have the time together to allow a High School kid to be MLB-ready; especially one with one only pitch who might never get MLB-ready, if he does not get at least a couple other plus pitches.  

 

McKay is almost there.  Greene might not be ready before the opportunity passes for these Twins.  Got to look at the big picture here.

 

If Greene had 2 pitches and was putting video game numbers it would have been a different story; and I don't care whether he looks like Adrian Peterson or like Bartolo Colon.

 

Edited May 19, 2017 by Thrylos

[Siehbiscuit]

I think it's like KLaw said, it's what he'd do. Everyone has a different personal philosophy and I'm not in the McKay camp. I personally believe he is already too close to his ceiling and the projection isn't comparable. Hell likely be in a rotation this time next year, but he may never be more than a number three. I WANT more than that if I have the #1 pick. I like Wright a lot too. He has more room to grow and has competed in the best conference in the NCAA. I just can't be paralyzed by the past or fear of failing. I need to evaluate each prospect on his own merit, not on Becketts or Bundys or even Kohl Stewart's. First rounders bust all the time and I will do all I can to make the best pick I could.

 

At the end of the day, I'm the guy that has always worked on 100% commission and isn't scared to take the risk and bet on myself. In the case for Greene, I have to bet on my evaluation being solid and rolling the dice.

 

As for where I, since no one is asking, I'm for Wright or Greene. If Wright comes at a discount, then I'd go that route.

 

This is a matter of philosophy (College pitcher vs HS pitcher). Lower bust rate, but lower ceiling vs higher bust rate, but high reward.

 

Philosophical differences.

[Deduno Abides]

It's not just the projectable talent, it's what the organization thinks it can do with it. All of these young men are projects. Anytime you are going to draft someone and spend six million dollars (or more) on a young man, you have to ask yourself if you have the technology to make him better, stronger, faster.

[Darius]

The Astros model used as an example is great. But that can't always be done.

 

1) There has to be someone good enough to take at #1 at a discount. You can't just take any schmuk for the sake of paying less.

 

2). There has be a very good player that you can make a deal with before the draft, and inform a bunch of other teams he won't sign with them in the first round.

 

I don't think it's as easy as some think, or team would do it every year that there isn't a Strasburg or Harper.

 

3). If the first two stars align, which isn't likely, then.....and this might be the rub....they have to want to come to Minnesota, instead of San Diego, Miami, etc.

 

I wouldn't do things like this just to be cute. I'd imagine for every Astros story, there's going to be a story of someone passing a generational talent, getting burned, and looking extremely foolish. Getting the best player at #1, paying the kid, and moving on is going to work out much more often, I would think.

Edited May 19, 2017 by Darius

[Sweetwater]

 

Buxton hit over .500 his Sr. year, scored nearly 2 runs per game. There was a lot to love about his HS batting line, even if his competition level was low.

 

And I am by no means judging Greene solely on his stat line, but... combine the non-"wow" factor of it with the description from BA cited above that includes the terms/phrases "flashes," "projections," "doesn't have as many reps with his offspeed," "flashes feel," "projecting," "predict" in the span of 7 sentences describing his repertoire, and...I have a lot of reservations.

 

Seems like there are a lot of things that need improvement and to go right for him, including the fact he doesn't have a good secondary offering at this point.

Nothing I've read about Wright suggests he should be clearly ahead of Greene. He also has flaws in his delivery and doesn't have a devastating out pitch. He's also 3-4 years older than Greene. Greene can get Professional coaching at 17 to correct and develop him. His ceiling is much higher, simply put. And, IMO, his floor isn't much lower.

[Mr. Brooks]

Well, change-ups aren't bad for your arm. But in any case, Greene's currently mediocre off-speed stuff is a huge risk factor. A lot of touted HS arms in the past already had a signature out pitch - Cole Hamels and the change-up, Josh Beckett and the curve, etc.

 

I have nothing against HS picks, I just don't see 1-1 with Greene. In pro ball he'll sit mid-90s, which is fine but nothing that special these days, and very few prospects develop elite off-speed pitches unless they already had a natural feel for it as an amateur. Plus I think Greene is a particularly bad fit for the Twins, given their pitcher development track record - for sure Greene needs a ton of development, even if you like him as a prospect.

 

I'm not a scout, so I don't say what the Twins should do, but passing on Greene makes complete sense.

Why would he throw 5 mph less in pro ball?

[drivlikejehu]

 

Why would he throw 5 mph less in pro ball?

 

He doesn't sit 100 now, or really hit it very often, and he'd be throwing a lot more pitches as a pro. 

[Mr. Brooks]

He doesn't sit 100 now, or really hit it very often, and he'd be throwing a lot more pitches as a pro.

Well he sits 98-99 now, I think. And don't 17 year olds typically add a tick or two to their fastball as they mature?

[sploorp]

I'm tired of the penny wise pound foolish approach of baseball that was such a trademark of the Ryan era.  I keep seeing the team drafting safe and the prospects don't seem to pan out any more than the upside picks.

 

I miss having a bonafide ace.  It's unlikely the team will ever spend the money needed to acquire one via free agency, so the draft is the next best thing.

 

I want real upside.  Just draft Greene and be done with it.

[Steve J]

I think I would lean towards Wright because for Green to reach his higher ceiling he would have to depend on a Twins development system that lately has not produced a whole lot of quality major league arms. 

[caninatl04]

Do potential draft picks go through any kind of physicals? Although MRIs would be wonderful, could a Twins doctor at least look at a $5 million arm

[Twins33]

Do potential draft picks go through any kind of physicals? Although MRIs would be wonderful, could a Twins doctor at least look at a $5 million arm

Yes they go through physicals.

[drjim]

Of course they go through medicals/physicals/MRIs/etc, but they aren't black and white, especially for a pitcher.

[drivlikejehu]

 

Well he sits 98-99 now, I think. And don't 17 year olds typically add a tick or two to their fastball as they mature?

 

I don't think he averages 98+. You could share a link if you've read that. But in any case, high schoolers don't necessarily add velocity when they transition to pro ball. Some do, some stay the same, some decrease. As a general rule though, velocity peaks young - so young that just measuring MLB players isn't sufficient.

[Twins33]

The most common range I see for Greene is 93-98 and can hit 100+ here and there. That's just from clicking multiple links via google. He throws harder at the beginning of the game, high 90s and then drop down to mid 90s later in the game.

[Mr. Brooks]

I don't think he averages 98+. You could share a link if you've read that. But in any case, high schoolers don't necessarily add velocity when they transition to pro ball. Some do, some stay the same, some decrease. As a general rule though, velocity peaks young - so young that just measuring MLB players isn't sufficient.

So if some gain velocity, some lose, and some stay the same, then again, why do you think he'll lose velocity?

 

Wright sits 93-95 now, I think. (Mid-90's) Did he also hit 100+ frequently in HS? Since he now throws where you expect Greene to in a couple years?

[luckylager]

In spite of every argument to the contrary, I am all-in on Hunter Greene. I will be disappointed in any other selection.  He has the potential to be amazing. You gotta take a chance on that kind of potential. Sure, the probability is he falls short of the hype. But if the Twins pass and does he becomes a once in a generation talent we'll be kicking ourselves in the a$$ for not taking a shot.  

[Willihammer]

Wright was 87-90 in high school according to MLB.com. 

 

Personally I'm less concerned about where Greene's velocity will be in 4-5 years and more concerned about his arm holding up. He threw all of 28 innings this season. That's not much of a test if you ask me. Wright is up to 89.2 and counting. We know the best predictor of future health is past health. By the same token it seems likely that someone who get through a full college season healthy would be more of a guarantee health-wise than someone who doesn't even finish a high school season. But I dont' know that there's any research to support / disprove that theory.

[Thrylos]

 

 

 

 

2) McKay's reported drop in velocity over his last 3 starts scares the bejeezus out of me.

 

 

Have you checked Greene's velocity the past few weeks?  Maybe McKay is not pitching at 100% trying to save his arm as well...

[Cory Engelhardt]

Have you checked Greene's velocity the past few weeks?  Maybe McKay is not pitching at 100% trying to save his arm as well...

Greene hasn't pitched in weeks, so hard to compare. I am leaning Wright anyway, but if the front office believes in any of them, then I will try my best to believe in that player too

[drivlikejehu]

 

So if some gain velocity, some lose, and some stay the same, then again, why do you think he'll lose velocity?

Wright sits 93-95 now, I think. (Mid-90's) Did he also hit 100+ frequently in HS? Since he now throws where you expect Greene to in a couple years?

 

I never said he would lose it, I just don't think he currently sits in the high 90s throughout his games, and don't think it's likely he would in pro ball either (as a starter).

[Bob Sacamento]

 

Greene hasn't pitched in weeks, so hard to compare. I am leaning Wright anyway, but if the front office believes in any of them, then I will try my best to believe in that player too

Greene has a scheduled bullpen session coming up this week

[drjim]

Greene has a scheduled bullpen session coming up this week

Looking like shutting it down might have cost him some money.

[Bob Sacamento]

 

Looking like shutting it down might have cost him some money.

I'd be shocked if he slipped past #3 to San Diego, so not exactly costing him big bucks

[drjim]

I'd be shocked if he slipped past #3 to San Diego, so not exactly costing him big bucks

I know there are other factors and wouldn't play this way exactly, but there is over a $1mil difference between Twins and Padres.