Article: The Scouting Skinny: Kyle Wright

[drjim]

 

Wright doesn't look very balanced and controlled on the mound for someone who throws in the low 90's.  He's likely going to need to develop a change-up to be a successful right-handed starting pitcher.  Aside from the two stellar recent starts, I'm just not seeing the upside here.

 

He was a top 5 guy coming into the year. And he's been really good for 5 of his last 6 starts. He has size and stuff. Him and Greene are the only two that could become #1s in my mind.

 

He had a slow start to the season, but has really picked it up recently, and is now performing at quite a high level.

[Twins33]

If someone told you McKay as a 1B would mash HR's and also hit for avg would you still go pitcher at 1-1, Seth? It's true, corner infielders rarely get picked at #1 and pitching is super important.

 

We also have to remember that he's a left batter and it seems like left power is reduced at Target Field, where he'd play half his games.

[Sweetwater]

I'm scared this team is going to pass on Greene and majorly regret it when he becomes Roy Halladay or something.

[DocBauer]

We all know the baseball draft is the biggest crapshoot of all sports drafts. Despite scouting, rankings, performance, potential, athleticism, velocity, raw power, etc, etc, the dipping and darting of a high velocity round ball being hit by a round bat still remains a complex mystery of success to predict.

 

You still draft for potential. But is it so wrong to also draft a pick that feels "safe"? I am not knocking Greene or McKay in any way. Both could turn out to be high quality major leaguers. But Greene, so young, so far away, even with his tremendous FB would seem to be the greatest risk of the three without solid confirmation of at least that second pitch. McKay seems to be a quality pitcher, is LH, and offers at least decent velocity. But it seems to me Wright offers the frame, velocity, and quality secondary pitches to not only have a high ceiling, but to be the more "proven" and "safer" pick to succeed. Without a Clemens, Strasburger or Harper available, I think you balance potential and safety of your choice and that just seems to say Wright to me.

[nater79a]

 

Looks like McKay and Wright will each get one more start before conference and ncaa tournaments start, so probably at least 3, maybe 4-5 more starts before the draft.

 

Also interesting that the college world series starts 5 days after round 1 of the draft. Vandy and Louisville have a good reputation for not overworking their pitchers.

 

Always enjoy watching  the College World Series.  But I especially enjoy watching it when the Twins draft a player that then ends up playing on one of the participating teams. I remember back in 2013 the Twins drafted Ryan Eades and then he played for LSU in the CWS a week or so later. Just kind of cool.

 

I guess we could possibly see the same with Brendan McKay or Kyle Wright this year as both are in the mix for the #1 pick and Louisville and Vandy are decent bets for Omaha.

[prouster]

Wright doesn't look very balanced and controlled on the mound for someone who throws in the low 90's. He's likely going to need to develop a change-up to be a successful right-handed starting pitcher. Aside from the two stellar recent starts, I'm just not seeing the upside here.

Do you mean McKay? Wright usually sits 93-95 and has topped out at 97. I don't know enough about mechanics to comment extensively, but he seems balanced to me. He should probably be using his lower half more, but he repeats his delivery well, which to me says he's in control of his body.

[Sam Morley]

It sounds to me like both Greene and McKay are better as hitters, McKay for sure if he's working sub 90. And with Greene, the projectability of a high school pitcher has to be about zero- even if you knew the outcome of Greene as a pitcher would be top of the rotation guy, if you also knew his outcome as hitter was slick fielding power hitting ss, you have to prefer the latter. Don't you have to compare the ceilings of these guys as pitchers and hitters, and then also consider their 'somewhere in the middles'? Obviously the floor is never reach the show at all. The calls to draft a pitcher based on organizational need seem misguided. As pitchers, the college guys are two years out at best, and Greene is four or five. The team will be significantly different in two years, and almost totally different in five. The way I see it, we have one sure thing: Miguel sano; we have two guys we hope will be sure things: buxton and berrios; we have the following guys we hope can be contributors and will be pleasantly surprised by anything approaching stardom: Kepler, Rosario, polanco, Vargas. Possibly gone in two years, for sure in four: dozier, mauer, Castro, Santana, Santiago, Hughes, the whole bullpen, the whole bench. My point is that you should always draft the best available player, especially when you are rebuilding (the player you think will be the best when he reaches the big leagues). If you think that in four years, Greene will be the next correa or lindor, you take that and forget about pitching. Polanco is playing great now, but is he firmly established for the next six years- no. Gordon is hitting for average at nooga, but hasn't demonstrated any other plus tools so far- it sounds like his ceiling is 'solid'- which would be great, but not something to bank on. If you think that in two years, McKay can replace mauer at first and put up kris Bryant ("best hitter in college baseball") numbers at first, I'd say that's also more valuable than whatever his ceiling as a pitcher is, greene's ceiling as a pitcher is, or wright's ceiling is. It seems to me that guys touted as 'best hitter in college baseball' especially in recent years are fairly reliable at transitioning their production to the big leagues.

 

All that being said, it does seem like the value of both Greene and McKay is possibly being inflated by their statuses as being both pitchers and hitters of quality. You have to figure out: is he a better pitcher than he is a hitter or the other way around, and whichever he is better at, that's what he is- no looking back. The idea that if he fails at one, he can try the other sounds like a recipe for a long drawn out minor league career (though I suppose in the case of McKay in particular, if he blows out his arm as a pitcher 1b seems like a more reasonable fallback). The idea that either of them can somehow do both is impossible, in my opinion.

 

My questions are: who is the best hitter right now in the draft and who has the highest ceiling as a hitter in the draft and who is the best pitcher right now in the draft (projecting ceiling for a pitcher seems pointless, esp when you're picking 1:1).

 

Seems to me like the talk is that the answers are: McKay is the best hitter right now (and might also have the highest ceiling) Greene has the highest ceiling as a hitter/position player (as a ss) and wright is the best pitcher.

 

I think McKay is the closest thing to a sure thing in the draft, but as a first baseman, and I would be happy if the twins took him (with dreams of kris Bryant in two years). I think Greene as a SS is the most interesting pick with the highest potential payoff and I would be happy if the twins took him, looking forward to watching his progress in the minors for the next four-six years. If they take wright or any of the other two as a pitcher, I will be gritting my teeth and crossing my fingers and hoping it somehow works out (thinking of kohl Stewart and Tyler jay).

[drjim]

I absolutely think their value is being inflated because they are so good at both pitching and hitting.

[Mike Sixel]

 

I absolutely think their value is being inflated because they are so good at both pitching and hitting.

 

shouldn't it be? If they fail at pitching, they have a good shot at playing the field, apparently. That seems like it would be more valuable.

 

Or am I reading this wrongly?

[nicksaviking]

 

shouldn't it be? If they fail at pitching, they have a good shot at playing the field, apparently. That seems like it would be more valuable.

 

Or am I reading this wrongly?

 

If a team was willing to let them do both I'd find value.

 

If it's the old fashioned way where they do one for 6 years, struggle and then transition to the other then I'd think all the service time lost kills the value.

[drjim]

 

shouldn't it be? If they fail at pitching, they have a good shot at playing the field, apparently. That seems like it would be more valuable.

 

Or am I reading this wrongly?

 

I don't think so at all. I want to bet on the highest probability one way or the other.

 

I think going through 2-3 years of development one way and then switching and thinking you'll get any type of significant value is more theoretical than reality.

[drjim]

 

If a team was willing to let them do both I'd find value.

 

If it's the old fashioned way where they do one for 6 years, struggle and then transition to the other then I'd think all the service time lost kills the value.

 

I don't think it is service time, it is development time. If you take 2-3 years off one way, the chances of recouping value the other way are really slim.

 

If I was drafting I would put no weight in that small probability. I would take the best hitter or pitcher and go with it.

 

If they judge McKay the best pitcher, I can live with that. But if they think Wright is a better pitcher than McKay, but there is also some possible value from McKay hitting if he struggles as a pitcher so they take him, that is a mistake.

[Lonestar]

I looked up Wright's last 5 starts and compared them to McKay's in the same time period. SSS but not necessarily cherry picking

 

ERA 1.14 | 1.26

BB% 5.11% | 9.43%

SO% 37.23% | 33.02%

G0/FO 1.78 | 0.77

 

Wright had slightly stronger competition.

 

We know there's more to command and control than BB% and SO%.

 

McKay had one 5-inning start without his best stuff. He also missed a start for reason unknown to me. He was experimenting with a new cutter.

 

Some would give the edge to McKay because he is an LHP. Some wouldn't draft a LHB 1B at 1-1 because Target Field is hard on LH power. That same reasoning would apply to LHP's. I don't get either. That is, the Twins are going to need some left handedness.

 

Left handedness could be a tie breaker if they were tied. I think Wright is the better pitching prospect.

[gunnarthor]

Is one of the two (McKay/Wright) considered a ground ball pitcher or fly ball pitcher or are they both about normal?

[Twins33]

That is, the Twins are going to need some left handedness.

 

Left handedness could be a tie breaker if they were tied. I think Wright is the better pitching prospect.

i don't think you swear off all left handed hitters obviously, but it feels like you have to have a certain type of power from that side. A Vargas is fine. I don't know how McKay grades for power but I've heard 20-25 as a possibility so that would put him as above average to plus. Does that reduce in Target Field? I think it's a legit concern.

 

Looking back, The Twins haven't had a huge sample of lefties with power either: Thome, Morneau for half a season pre-concussion, Kubel, Arcia and now Vargas switch hitting and if Kepler develops it. So I guess it could be the sample size but I know even some of those guys had a harder time hitting them out in the new ballpark.

 

I agree with your last comment about Wright though. I do think if it's pitching wise, I'd go Wright over McKay.

[Lonestar]

 

Is one of the two (McKay/Wright) considered a ground ball pitcher or fly ball pitcher or are they both about normal?

 

G0/FO Wright 1.78 | McKay 0.77

[Oldgoat_MN]

 

shouldn't it be? If they fail at pitching, they have a good shot at playing the field, apparently. That seems like it would be more valuable.

 

Or am I reading this wrongly?

One more comment on this Mike.

If Wright blows out his arm he can play 1B.

If Greene blows out his arm he cannot play SS. Or 3B or 2B.

 

And the HS pitching he is facing is so much further from MLB than the pitching McKay is facing. It would definitely be an entire restart (low A at best) for Greene.

[Sam Morley]

Does anybody think that either Greene or McKay can play the field and hit daily and then take a turn starting pitching every fifth day over a full major league season?

 

My opinion is that that would be impossible. There is no way to effectively dedicate yourself to both the craft hitting and the craft of pitching (not to mention fielding).

 

The only possible two way value for an American League team would be if they were a starting pitcher who could be used as a pinch hitter.

 

If either of these guys are a legit top 25 prospect as a hitter, I think they should hit first, and hitting at each level until they fail before going back to pitching. Elite hitters are more valuable than elite pitchers.

 

Does anybody know where these guys rank as hitters/position players independent from their status as pitchers? McKay is supposed to be the top college pitcher and the top college hitter, right? Is Greene the top prep hitter as well as being the top prep pitcher?

[Mike Sixel]

Does anybody think that either Greene or McKay can play the field and hit daily and then take a turn starting pitching every fifth day over a full major league season?

My opinion is that that would be impossible. There is no way to effectively dedicate yourself to both the craft hitting and the craft of pitching (not to mention fielding).

The only possible two way value for an American League team would be if they were a starting pitcher who could be used as a pinch hitter.

If either of these guys are a legit top 25 prospect as a hitter, I think they should hit first, and hitting at each level until they fail before going back to pitching. Elite hitters are more valuable than elite pitchers.

Does anybody know where these guys rank as hitters/position players independent from their status as pitchers? McKay is supposed to be the top college pitcher and the top college hitter, right? Is Greene the top prep hitter as well as being the top prep pitcher?

Greene has been described as a possible top ten pick as a hitter

[gunnarthor]

 

Greene has been described as a possible top ten pick as a hitter

I'm not sure that's right, Mike. McKay has been listed as top 10 as both but Greene, to my knowledge, has not.

[Mike Sixel]

I'm not sure that's right, Mike. McKay has been listed as top 10 as both but Greene, to my knowledge, has not.

KLAW had said it. I have quoted it on these boards

[drivlikejehu]

The level of experience is a huge difference between Greene and McKay. Greene is not really a two-way player in any meaningful sense because <a> he's obviously a better prospect as a pitcher and <b> by the time a switch could be made, he'd be at least several years removed from facing even HS-level opposition. At least McKay faced SEC players. He'd be rusty but the baseline experience would still be a huge help.

Edited May 18, 2017 by drivlikejehu

[AlwaysinModeration]

Greene seems like the sexiest pick. But it does seem like a strong argument can be made / has been made that Wright is the best pitcher in the draft, and should be the pick. I also agree that the "two-way" bonus that Greene and McKay both receive is a red herring that is inflating their value.

 

If the rub on Wright is that he has control issues, does he recent stretch of low walk starts change that?

[SadMinnySportsFan]

I can see the argument to be made for Wright. Seems like he'll be a good pitcher. Not a McKay guy. his floor seems the highest, but his ceiling the lowest. When you have the first overall pick, you don't take a safe guy. Go big or go home Twins, pick the kid with highest ceiling and take Greene please!

[Lonestar]

There's a difference between throws the hardest and highest ceiling. FWIW, Jordon Adell might have the highest ceiling.

 

There's also something to be said for highest expected value. Some would say that's McKay. I give the edge to Wright because of his perceived ceiling and relative margin for error (velocity).

 

Some speculate that McKay could be MLB ready this year -- in time for a playoff push. Wright might be ready after next year's Super 2 deadline.

[Steve Lein]

 

Greene has been described as a possible top ten pick as a hitter

 

I've seen a lot of "first round" descriptions as a hitter, not necessarily top 10. He's come on a little at the end of the season now that he's not pitching, but just a few weeks ago he was hitting below .300 on the year. I don't think he had nearly that consensus as a hitter anymore.

 

He's going as a pitcher, that is certain at this point.

 

Mckay is definitely top 10 both ways. The best college hitter almost always goes top 10 or top 5 (as long as they are competent at a position).

 

Last 4 or 5 years have been pretty good for top college hitters.

 

 

 

 

Edited May 18, 2017 by Steve Lein

[ALessKosherScott]

 

Some would give the edge to McKay because he is an LHP. Some wouldn't draft a LHB 1B at 1-1 because Target Field is hard on LH power. That same reasoning would apply to LHP's. I don't get either. That is, the Twins are going to need some left handedness.
 

 

If he's a hitter, my guess is the best case scenario is he's something of a Joe Mauer type, so he can still be of value but he needs to be a .300 hitter with a lot of doubles to play out. As a pitcher, I'd guess his good curve ball makes him a little more effective on righties and gives him a bit more neutral of a platoon split. But a lefty fly ball pitcher at Target Field scares the beejeebus out of me.

 

I'll take Hunter Greene and the 70 fastball for $1000, Alex. 

 

 

[TRex]

 

One more comment on this Mike.

If Wright blows out his arm he can play 1B.

If Greene blows out his arm he cannot play SS. Or 3B or 2B.

 

What is your reasoning that Greene couldn't play SS, 3B or 2B? Miguel Sano still has plenty of arm strength for 3rd base, and arm-strength isn't a problem at 2B.

[Oldgoat_MN]

 

What is your reasoning that Greene couldn't play SS, 3B or 2B? Miguel Sano still has plenty of arm strength for 3rd base, and arm-strength isn't a problem at 2B.

I'm not referring to the ability to throw the ball 95+ MPH. I'm talking about ruining the arm in such a way that hard throws are not possible. This is not nearly as frequent as it was pre-TJS, but I believe it still happens. Radke had no business being on a pitchers mound his last few months. He was still pretty good, but he his arm was toast. I doubt very much that he could throw a ball from second base to home by December of that year (2006).

 

Miguel Sano had TJS. If we draft a pitcher who later needs TJS that is a setback, but it does not mean he is lost to the team as an asset.

[TRex]

 

I'm not referring to the ability to throw the ball 95+ MPH. I'm talking about ruining the arm in such a way that hard throws are not possible. This is not nearly as frequent as it was pre-TJS, but I believe it still happens. Radke had no business being on a pitchers mound his last few months. He was still pretty good, but he his arm was toast. I doubt very much that he could throw a ball from second base to home by December of that year (2006).

 

Miguel Sano had TJS. If we draft a pitcher who later needs TJS that is a setback, but it does not mean he is lost to the team as an asset.

The note about Radke is a good point... sometimes one forgets that all pitcher maladies are not healed by TJS. A torn labrum would certainly have a huge impact on converting to a position player.