Article: Real Or Pretender?

[Mike Sixel]

and yet people are saying the Twins can trade for a MLB pitcher, from their minor league system.....so, which is it, you can trade for a number 2-4 (and its going to cost real prospects), or you can't trade ESan and expect to get anything back?

[Willihammer]

 

The issue would be health. If he avoids injury it doesn't seem like his velo would lose so much that he would no longer be effective.

He's probably good next year and then there is an option, all.at a reasonable rate. Seems like the kind of asset you would want to keep if you plan on being competitive (which they should).

I'm not confident there is a sure thing pitching acquisition you get for Erv right now anyways. The theoretical trade is nice to dream but might smash into reality when the actual offers are on the table.

Come on. Affordable, front end starter under control for multiple years? That's pretty much the ideal trade chip at the deadline.

 

Its risky but the Twins have painted themselves into this weird corner where they are pitching starved but their best trade chip is a pitcher. Figure it out.

[yarnivek1972]

Better than who they could acquire for Santana? I'd agree with that, but when you have to fill 3/5 of a rotation I'll take a controllable player with upside instead. I agree completely that he's better than any free agent they'd likely get. I'd be looking for other trades to help fill that void too. Trading only Santana makes little sense. It's simply one step in a multi-step process. This team has many holes that need filled. As I said, they've got 3/5 of a rotation to fill and most of a bullpen. There are no guarantees whether you keep him or trade him. However, since he should easily be the most valuable asset to a real contending team at the deadline, IMO, it makes more sense to deal him.

 

I don't feel that the future is now. I feel that the future is next year. Sacrificing long term gains because they unexpectedly find themselves relevant in a putrid division is what I'm afraid of.

Of course, if you trade Erv you have 4/5 of the rotation to fill unless you feel that Mejia is a sure thing. He'll probably be around, but I don't think he's much more than a 4 or 5 next year.

[wsnydes]

 

It's been a fun read the last couple of pages with discussions on both sides of the fence. I've been leaning more toward contending now and next year by trading prospects for established pitching.... Frankly I'm tired of moving the goalposts for contention! 

I'm tired of it too, but I don't see them as real this year so I don't really consider it moving the goalposts when next year was what I was looking at anyway.

[wsnydes]

 

Of course, if you trade Erv you have 4/5 of the rotation to fill unless you feel that Mejia is a sure thing. He'll probably be around, but I don't think he's much more than a 4 or 5 next year.

Like I've said in several posts now, that can't be their only deal.  They've got to supplement that move with more.  If that is their only move, it makes no sense at all.  I've never advocated to dealing only Erv, that's just one move of several.

[drjim]

Come on. Affordable, front end starter under control for multiple years? That's pretty much the ideal trade chip at the deadline.

 

Its risky but the Twins have painted themselves into this weird corner where they are pitching starved but their best trade chip is a pitcher. Figure it out.

If the Twins wanted to push contention back to 2019 Santana is a great trade chip.

[yarnivek1972]

 

Right. It's helpful to put real names to hypothetical trade scenarios.

 

Maybe Falvey has some names from other organizations up his sleeve, but in general, don't expect a team trading for major league pitching to send back major league pitching in return. 

This exactly.

 

To get, you have to give.  I see a lot of posts suggesting we get.  Precious few willing to give up enough to get it.

[drjim]

Come on. Affordable, front end starter under control for multiple years? That's pretty much the ideal trade chip at the deadline.

 

Its risky but the Twins have painted themselves into this weird corner where they are pitching starved but their best trade chip is a pitcher. Figure it out.

Santana is not necessarily their best chip either, he's just the most veteran. Polanco, Rosario, Gordon, Kepler/Buxton (if you really want to retool), Dozier are all very solid chips.

 

For strictly selling, Kintzler would be an ok chip, possibly Santiago if he rebounds a little.

[Mr. Brooks]

I keep hearing that it's not worth dealing Santana because he won't bring enough back.

If that is true, then why don't we just trade for 3 more Ervin Santana level pitchers and have the best rotation in baseball?

[drjim]

I keep hearing that it's not worth dealing Santana because he won't bring enough back.

If that is true, then why don't we just trade for 3 more Ervin Santana level pitchers and have the best rotation in baseball?

You can maybe get a better pitcher if you want to wait until 2019 and the prospect works out, or you can get a lesser pitcher but have him cheaper and more control.

 

Or maybe Falvey and Levine are actually wizards.

[Hosken Bombo Disco]

I don't know who the trade partners would be, but Buxton, Rosario, Kepler, Granite can all play center. Not to mention Royce Lewis. There would be another position of true depth to deal from. 

[KirbyDome89]

 

Gordon would be who I dangle as a feature piece. Fill in the rest with other prospects. 

It's at least dealing from some depth so I can stomach it depending on the pitcher coming back. If they're shipping out prospects then I would rather see them go all in and get at least a 2 starter with multiple years of team control. It was said earlier but if they're dealing high end prospects for a mid to back end rotation starter to "shore up," the staff in an attempt to limp into the playoffs I'll be very disappointed. 

Edited June 30, 2017 by KirbyDome89

[Mr. Brooks]

You can maybe get a better pitcher if you want to wait until 2019 and the prospect works out, or you can get a lesser pitcher but have him cheaper and more control.

 

Or maybe Falvey and Levine are actually wizards.

Right, so again I ask, if Ervin Santana level pitchers with 2.5 years of control are worth so little on the trade market, as you suggest, then why don't we trade for 3 more just like him and have the best rotation in baseball for not just this year, but the following 2 seasons as well.

That seems like a complete no brainer if he really has as little value as you suggest.

[Vanimal46]

 

It's at least dealing from some depth so I can stomach it depending on the pitcher coming back. If they're shipping out prospects then I would rather see them go all in and get at least a 2 starter with multiple years of team control. It was said earlier but if they're dealing high end prospects for a mid to back end rotation starter to "shore up," the staff in an attempt to limp into the playoffs I'll be very disappointed. 

 

I would be very disappointed too. We're on the same page trying to target at least a 2 with multiple years of control. 

[Mr. Brooks]

I don't know who the trade partners would be, but Buxton, Rosario, Kepler, Granite can all play center. Not to mention Royce Lewis. There would be another position of true depth to deal from.

Well those guys can play center in a pinch, but I'm not sure anyone would want them as their everyday CF.

Kepler and Rosario probably don't have the range, Granite probably doesn't have the arm, and Lewis is too far away to even consider when evaluating depth.

[Twinsoholic]

The Royals have been playing very good baseball of late, so I think this series will tell us a lot about whether or no the Twins can continue to win more than they lose. Boston spanked them good, so the Twins need to show that they can bounce back and beat a team on the rise (win the series) like KC. If the Twins cannot handle the Royals, then it could be a long steep slide to the All Star break and beyond the A S game. Go Eduardo Escobar--clean up hitter!

[KirbyDome89]

 

Or you can get a prospect, probably a solid one, but you would then sacrifice a significant amount of risk certainty and some time horizon.

 

There is also risk in holding onto an aging player, and value lost by not moving him at his peak. Ervin is far from a sure thing to put up another 3 months performance like this. 

 

But it's next year too. And the reality of who they would actually get back in a trade. I don't know if those advocating for a trade have a good sense of what he brings back.

 

To me it sounds like everybody willing to let Ervin go is comfortable with a prospect(s) return. How comfortable are you with hoping the Twins spend real $$ in FA? They can put together a package of prospects and snag a pitcher, but is it reasonable to expect multiple moves like that? Probably not, so now you're looking at trading away major league players. Apparently Dozier is worthless, and Santiago never cashed in on the promise of that 4 game stretch in April. Either way the team is hurt, but I would rather have 4-5 years of Buxton/Kepler/even Polanco instead of 1-2 years of Ervin in his mid to late 30s. IMO it makes the most sense to trade an aging veteran having a career year.

[drjim]

There is also risk in holding onto an aging player, and value lost by not moving him at his peak. Ervin is far from a sure thing to put up another 3 months performance like this.

 

 

To me it sounds like everybody willing to let Ervin go is comfortable with a prospect(s) return. How comfortable are you with hoping the Twins spend real $$ in FA? They can put together a package of prospects and snag a pitcher, but is it reasonable to expect multiple moves like that? Probably not, so now you're looking at trading away major league players. Apparently Dozier is worthless, and Santiago never cashed in on the promise of that 4 game stretch in April. Either way the team is hurt, but I would rather have 4-5 years of Buxton/Kepler/even Polanco instead of 1-2 years of Ervin in his mid to late 30s. IMO it makes the most sense to trade an aging veteran having a career year.

Certainly flipping vets for prospects, punting the rest of this season and likely next year too is an option.

 

Standing pat or making minor tweaks is not a bad thing either. If Santana stays, pitches decent, and then leaves as a free agent, that isn't a terrible outcome.