Article: Real Or Pretender?

[Mike Sixel]

I agree he's not giving the defense enough credit for the run prevention. Also, I think he's underselling that they don't have any/many black holes in the lineup right now. They may only have legit big time player, but most of the players are at or above replacement level. That's a lot better than some other teams.

 

I do generally agree, I don't think they are legit contenders this year. Hopeful they change my mind, but I think they are a 78-81 or so win team now.

[Brock Beauchamp]

 

I do generally agree, I don't think they are legit contenders this year. Hopeful they change my mind, but I think they are a 78-81 or so win team now.

I'm still cautious and haven't moved them from between 75 and 85 wins. So much rides on the arm of Berrios. He could be worth five wins by himself because the options behind him are that bad.

 

And Mejia/Gibson are worth nearly that much as well. Those three guys will likely decide whether this is a winning or losing season (injuries excepted).

 

I think the bullpen will manage to hold its own. Maybe a bit below average but I expect something to be done about it in relatively short order. Whether that's Burdi, Melotakis, trade, whatever, I don't know.

[diehardtwinsfan]

yeah, if Berrios is new and improved, that changes things drastically.  Baring injury, you have 3 reliable starting options... Getting Gibson back on track or Mejia ready would change things too.... I'm still on the pretender side and would likely sell at the deadline, but if what we saw from Berrios is more the norm than the exception, I'd have to start rethinking that.

[Mike Sixel]

 

I'm still cautious and haven't moved them from between 75 and 85 wins. So much rides on the arm of Berrios. He could be worth five wins by himself because the options behind him are that bad.

 

And Mejia/Gibson are worth nearly that much as well. Those three guys will likely decide whether this is a winning or losing season (injuries excepted).

 

I think the bullpen will manage to hold its own. Maybe a bit below average but I expect something to be done about it in relatively short order. Whether that's Burdi, Melotakis, trade, whatever, I don't know.

 

Well, I'm pretty much banking the wins at this point, and not shifting my expectations for RoS by more than a game or two.....

 

And yes, A LOT rides on Berrios and Santiago at this point (I'm assuming ESan is a 2).

[Brock Beauchamp]

 

Well, I'm pretty much banking the wins at this point, and not shifting my expectations for RoS by more than a game or two.....

 

And yes, A LOT rides on Berrios and Santiago at this point (I'm assuming ESan is a 2).

I'm banking the wins as well but they're only four games over .500. That can be wiped away with one long series where the pitching tanks.

 

I don't think they'll drop to 75 unless the pitching staff implodes, just as I don't think they'll rise to 85 unless it stabilizes. Santana should be good, Santiago should be decent, and that 3-4 game swing from .500 rides mostly on Berrios, IMO.

[yarnivek1972]

The Twins had a very strong series in Baltimore.  It was IMO by far their most impressive series of the season.  They went into the home ballpark of one of the best teams in the league (when the series began) and took it to them in every way.  The Twins out hit, out pitched and out fielded the Orioles.

 

I'm not sure I'm quite ready to label them title contenders yet.  I am willing to believe that they should be able to, at the very least, stay with the Indians and Tigers all year barring catastrophic injury to Sano or Santana.

 

One key ingredient is the game of "pick me up" that they seem to be excelling at.  Miguel Sano is a budding superstar.  Everyone know that.  But it takes more than one superstar to win in baseball.  Just ask Ken Griffey Jr or Ernie Banks.  It's a team game.  You need contributions from all 25 players.  For the most part, the Twins are getting that.  Well, probably more like 21-22.  But, that's still pretty good and better than a lot of teams are getting.  Case in point, Miguel Sano went 0 for 9 with 6 K in the final two games of the series.  Yet the Twins won both games, just fine.  It's easy to win when your superstar does the heavy lifting.  But, sometimes the rest of the boys have to pick him up.  Today, Kennys Vargas had two RBI to support a third consecutive quality start from Jose Berrios.  The bullpen put the clamps down and it was game over.  Yesterday, Ervin spun another gem.  The bottom 3 in the order manufactured the first run with a walk and two singles.  Dozier's HR provided insurance.  

 

I've been saying all throughout April and May that the Twins were feasting off bad teams.  This series showed they can play with good teams.  It was a critical test for a young team.  They passed with flying colors.

 

Next test starts Friday.  The Rays are under .500, but they are a dangerous team.  They are 4th in the AL in runs and 3rd in ERA.  So, how are they sub .500?  Well, 33 errors leading to 23 unearned runs probably hasn't helped.  Only Oakland has allowed more unearned runs in the AL.  Being in the same division as the Yankees and Red Sox hasn't helped them either.  But they are definitely a dangerous team.  There really is no weak link in their rotation, although there is no clear ace, either.   Archer is probably their best, and I believe he goes Friday. Three different Rays' hitters have at least 18 extra base hits already, the Twins have just one such hitter. There are two Rays that already have 12 HR.  And neither one is named Evan Longorria.  Definitely a powerful middle of the order to contend with.

 

Twins players and fans: relax, kick back and enjoy tonight and tomorrow.  There is still a lot of season left.  And a lot of really good teams the Twins have to play in the near future.  So, have fun, but not too much fun - as a coworker of mine says.  The rest of the season starts in 48 hours.

Edited May 25, 2017 by yarnivek1972

[kab21]

The Twins are more Real than they were 2 weeks ago. Partly due to Berrios looking like a solid or better pitcher for the season and partly due to solid (or continued excellent) play throughout the lineup. 

 

Still need a lot of pitching though.

[Vanimal46]

We're halfway through June, and this team is still in 1st place above .500.

 

I'm a man of my word, and believe this is a contending team.

 

The pitching staff isn't going to be fixed magically this season. IMO they need to address one or the other - bullpen or rotation.

 

As the Royals showed before, a good bullpen can overcome an average rotation. I hope they make some moves to shore up this horrid pitching situation.

[Doomtints]

The Royals dominating with a great bullpen but bad starters isn't correct. I know it's an oft-repeated narrative in Twins territory, but it did not exist. The Royals starters were good in the time period in question, as was their defense.

[Vanimal46]

The Royals dominating with a great bullpen but bad starters isn't correct. I know it's an oft-repeated narrative in Twins territory, but it did not exist. The Royals starters were good in the time period in question, as was their defense.

Looking back, their rotation was actually better statistically in 2014 than in 2015 when they won the WS. Their overall strategy of getting 5-6 innings from their starter and turning it over to the bullpen could work for 3 of the Twins starters... Frankly I only trust Erv and Berrios to go 7+ right now.

[yarnivek1972]

The offense is real. I really don't think anyone is playing over their heads, other than maybe Sano slightly. The pitching staff is barely holding on IMO.  It seems on the brink of implosion every night.  Think what kind of a disaster a month long absence by Santana or Duffey would be.

 

IMO, you can't have that level of dependence on two pitchers and sustain success over a 162 game season.

[yarnivek1972]

I considered posting this under last night's game wrap, but didn't want to get too far off topic.  It's more appropriate here I think.

 

IMO the Twins can't consider themselves legit contenders for anything until they figure out how to win at home.  Sure, they have a great road record, but is it sustainable with essentially 2 starting pitchers and a good, but inconsistent offense?  I submit no. History agrees. The only MLB team with a better road record is the Astros.  Both the Twins and Astros are on pace to win 50 or more road games, which is historically difficult to do.  2010 is as far back as I felt going.  No team has win 50 road games since then.  Only two teams even won 48.  In the last 8 seasons.  Good teams strive for 40-45.

 

The flip side as we all know is the Twins terrible record at home.  How bad is it?  Only 4 MLB teams have sub .500 home records.  The Mets, Phillies, Giants and the Twins.  Only the Phillies home record is worse than the Twins current mark. The Phillies are well on pace to matching the Twins 103 loss mark of last year.

 

So, let's say the Twins fall back to Earth on the road and end the season with 45 road wins, which would still be spectacular.  That would mean going 21-24 the rest of the year on the road.  Let's say they also normalize at home to win .525 of home games the rest of the way.  That would be 21-19 at home. See the problem?  41 more wins won't get the Twins into the playoffs.  No way, no how.  Probably need 45-46.  At least. So that likely means winning 4 or 5 more home games to go 25-15 or even 26-14 at home the rest of the way.  That's a winning percentage of over .600, which is double what they have in the first half.  

 

I don't see it happening.

[jimmer]

Twins have horrible pitching, average offense, and very good defense (mostly centered around the OF and a couple IF spots). Not a great formula for a true contender when 162 games are played.

Edited June 30, 2017 by jimmer

[beckmt]

Think we might get to a WC game.  More than that would be a surprise, but Cleveland could have one or two starting pitching injuries or hitting could implode and they could fall down.  

Do not see trading much of the upper level farm talent on a short term fix.  Could see trading Polanco as part of a package for Gray or Archer(since both of those clubs value cheap decent players with control).  Would not trade Gordon as he has too much upside,  would actually bring him up, when Twins clear a spot with a trade before the deadline. 

[Brock Beauchamp]

 

Would not trade Gordon as he has too much upside,  would actually bring him up, when Twins clear a spot with a trade before the deadline. 

I would not bring up Gordon. I don't trust half of a breakout season where he's failing miserably against LHP (.538 OPS in 56 PA).

 

I'm still pretty lukewarm on Gordon, actually. I think he'll become a productive MLB starter but I remain unconvinced this season is for real. That doesn't mean he can't become a .780 OPS player in MLB - which would make him very valuable - I'm simply not sold on his .850 OPS.

 

That's why I'd consider trading him while his value is high.

[Willihammer]

The Twins' OPS is exactly the same as it was last year (.738) but its worse compared to the rest of baseball as offense is up generally. The OPS+ has dropped from 97 to 95. 

 

After this Boston series I looked at their game logs to see how we've fared against opponents by division and record. Long story short, its the same as they 2000s Twins teams. They're 3-7 against AL East opponents and have been outscored 2-1. They're cleaning up against weak AL Central opponents and benefiting from the unbalanced schedule.

 

I hate to say it, but they're pretenders. They can't pitch, and they can't score against decent teams outside the division. 

 

Trade Santana, Kintzler and re-load with pitching and another bat or two this offseason. Hang onto their minor league trade chips until they show they aren't totally overmatched by the Red Sox, Yankees, and Astros. Next year hopefully.

[brettbrett88]

Does that mean at the moment the Indians are pretenders as well then?!

[Hosken Bombo Disco]

Does that mean at the moment the Indians are pretenders as well then?!

Every team is a contender except the Twins, who are always pretenders. It's an inferiority thing with Minnesota sports fans.

 

More seriously, the Twins had a surprising, sustained run of success in the previous decade, which is setting up (IMO) unreasonable expectations that such a run of success can easily be matched again. Nothing is ever guaranteed, however.

 

The irony is that those dominant regular season Twins teams of the 2000s failed spectacularly when they played the post-season games.

[Hosken Bombo Disco]

The Twins' OPS is exactly the same as it was last year (.738) but its worse compared to the rest of baseball as offense is up generally. The OPS+ has dropped from 97 to 95. 

 

After this Boston series I looked at their game logs to see how we've fared against opponents by division and record. Long story short, its the same as they 2000s Twins teams. They're 3-7 against AL East opponents and have been outscored 2-1. They're cleaning up against weak AL Central opponents and benefiting from the unbalanced schedule.

 

I hate to say it, but they're pretenders. They can't pitch, and they can't score against decent teams outside the division. 

 

Trade Santana, Kintzler and re-load with pitching and another bat or two this offseason. Hang onto their minor league trade chips until they show they aren't totally overmatched by the Red Sox, Yankees, and Astros. Next year hopefully.

It's a realistic conclusion, but if they trade Santana this year, where will the pitching come from next year?

 

It's imperative to capitalize on Santana and Berrios both pitching like aces this season. If the Twins can get halfway reliable starting pitching from the 3-5 guys they can stay in it until the final week, and also arrange the rotation so that Berrios or Santana can be in line for a potential WC game start.

[Mike Sixel]

 

It's a realistic conclusion, but if they trade Santana this year, where will the pitching come from next year?

It's imperative to capitalize on Santana and Berrios both pitching like aces this season. If the Twins can get halfway reliable starting pitching from the 3-5 guys they can stay in it until the final week, and also arrange the rotation so that Berrios or Santana can be in line for a potential WC game start.

 

Either go in, or go out, but stop trying to play the "do nothing" course. IMO, of course.

 

If they are going to try to win, go get a legit pitcher, and 2 RPs and a DH. 

 

If they aren't going to try to win, trade ESan and Dozier and any RP not nailed down.

[Hosken Bombo Disco]

Either go in, or go out, but stop trying to play the "do nothing" course. IMO, of course.

 

If they are going to try to win, go get a legit pitcher, and 2 RPs and a DH. 

 

If they aren't going to try to win, trade ESan and Dozier and any RP not nailed down.

One more reliable starting pitcher would do wonders for this team. I would trade for one. Based on Levine's comments, however, it appears the Twins are hoping that someone emerges from the Mejia, Gibson, or Santiago group. The fans are also held hostage hoping that one of those guys works.

[Mike Sixel]

 

One more reliable starting pitcher would do wonders for this team. I would trade for one. Based on Levine's comments, however, it appears the Twins are hoping that someone emerges from the Mejia, Gibson, or Santiago group. The fans are also held hostage hoping that one of those guys works.

 

IMO, this is how you get stuck in perpetual rebuilds, and marginal competitiveness. If those teams had made a trade to get better, they might have won a playoff series (or not).

[Hosken Bombo Disco]

IMO, this is how you get stuck in perpetual rebuilds, and marginal competitiveness. If those teams had made a trade to get better, they might have won a playoff series (or not).

Not sure I follow.

 

Get in the tournament and see what happens. I have utmost confidence in Santana and Berrios this year, and that someone in the lineup can come up with a timely hit. Next year might be different. If the Twins trade Santana, where will the pitching come from in 2018?

[Mike Sixel]

 

Not sure I follow.

Get in the tournament and see what happens. I have utmost confidence in Santana and Berrios this year, and that someone in the lineup can come up with a timely hit. Next year might be different. If the Twins trade Santana, where will the pitching come from in 2018?

 

If they don't acquire someone, it comes from the minors, just like if they trade him.....

 

My point was, if the FO is going to sit around and see what happens, they are no different than the previous regime, not committing to a rebuild, not going in to win. 

 

BTW, ESAN is 35, how long do people believe he can keep this up?

[yarnivek1972]

If they don't acquire someone, it comes from the minors, just like if they trade him.....

 

My point was, if the FO is going to sit around and see what happens, they are no different than the previous regime, not committing to a rebuild, not going in to win.

 

BTW, ESAN is 35, how long do people believe he can keep this up?

He's not doing it by blowing people away now. He's doing it with smarts and hitting his spots. 2-3 years probably for sure.

[KirbyDome89]

Honest question. If they aren't willing to move guys like Santana then where are the Twins finding pitching? They won't be big spenders in FA and the minor league system isn't exactly stocked with upside arms. What players have the necessary combination of value and expendability to bring back mid rotation or better starting pitching? 

 

Hopefully Ervin's July looks more like his April/May than his June, and the Twins can sell at or over market value. 

[Mike Sixel]

 

He's not doing it by blowing people away now. He's doing it with smarts and hitting his spots. 2-3 years probably for sure.

 

You think he's going to be a good  MLB pitcher when he's 37 and 38? do you know how short that list is?

[Willihammer]

 

If the Twins trade Santana, where will the pitching come from in 2018?

Free agency, trade, minor leagues. It would take some creativity for sure. 

[old nurse]

 

You think he's going to be a good  MLB pitcher when he's 37 and 38? do you know how short that list is?

League  average ERA is 4.5. A crafty veteran that can hit their spots  should be able to be league average

[Mike Sixel]

 

League  average ERA is 4.5. A crafty veteran that can hit their spots  should be able to be league average

 

That doesn't actually answer the question about how very, very, rare that is for a 37/8 year old. If it were true, why aren't there more crafty veterans right now that are starting pitchers?