Article: Real Or Pretender?

[Brock Beauchamp]

 

I can't speak for everybody who was ok with the Dozier/DeLeon swap but DeLeon wasn't viewed as a future Cy Young winner. I didn't think it was a terribly unfair offer for a 2B coming off one hot second half. 

If De Leon was Jose Berrios, maybe that's a fair deal (Dozier for De Leon). I'd still say it's a bit light on the Twins side of things but it's closer to the ballpark for sure.

 

But De Leon isn't Berrios. He has a career high IP of 114. And he's injured... again. This time, it may end in Tommy John surgery.

 

My concern with De Leon wasn't his talent, it's the fact the guy can't stay on the field. Compare that to Berrios, who is both younger and has been a professional workhorse since the age of 18.

 

Good pitchers don't matter if they don't pitch baseball games. Maybe De Leon turns into a workhorse but there are questions about the durability of every pitcher in baseball. Deservedly so, there are even bigger questions about 24 year olds who barely topped 100 IP all of once in their career.

[kab21]

The Twins are pretenders unless Berrios emulates Liriano (minus the injury) and two of the hard throwing RP prospects solidify the bullpen. Maybe (a reach for me at this point) they can compete for the wild card with the expanded playoffs but a rotation of Ervin - Hector - ? followed up by a bullpen of ????'s isn't going to advance any significant distance in the mostly crapshoot of the playoffs.

[akmanak]

Pretender, you see the how the Twins can play well against teams in our division, but as soon as you begin to play the big dogs like Boston we start to crumble. The bullpen right now is a bunch of smoke and mirrors. We are running into the same scenerio as we did in previous years were are bullpen will be gassed by June or the start of July.

 

The management has to pull the trigger on trading Dozier so we can at least insert one more quality starter in our rotation.

[bird]

 

I generally support this view, but the draft this year just doesn't fall that way. Top 3 guys are all pitchers. Can't jump the board that much.

But on a related note, does make me feel somewhat optimistic about the current state of the team, they have the makings of a solid, young core of position players.

 

Me too, but I think we have to acknowledge that there may be only two, possibly three consensus #1 pitching prospects available in a given draft. You obviously take Price and Strassberg . But if Dillon Tate is your best pitching option, the strategy of going for a position player makes all the sense in the world to me.

 

The Twins took Gordon instead of Nola, Freeland, or Hoffman, and I think they'll be happy they did. If they had a disciplined draft strategy to take position players when the alternative is a pitcher with a #2-3 ceiling, perhaps we'd be enjoying Benintendi or Happ instead of asking if Jay is off the DL yet.

 

However, I don't believe this "position player priority" strategy plays out past the first round of the draft. In fact, I'd probably resonate to a strategy that says you either find a high-ceiling HS pitcher and overpay when possible or take your chances on a fallen angel like Seth Romero or Clarke in the second round.

 

And I agree that the draft this year dictates they take a pitcher with that first selection.

Edited May 12, 2017 by birdwatcher

[bird]

I'm not concerned much about whether the Twins get pitching or position players in return for Dozier. For a number of reasons. One, I don't think Dozier fetches a MLB starter who vaults the team from pretender status into contenders. Two, if I'm GM, my sell discipline is not violated, and says I only trade from surplus, and I always get what I believe is an overpay, meaning I keep guys like Dozier when the offer is DeLeon. Because teams are not likely to overpay with anything other than prospects, I'm not counting on trading my way into instant contention. I have to be willing to make the occasional FA deal. Oh, and I'm NEVER depleting my farm system to make a run, ever. I want to avoid cycling in and out of the picture if possible.

 

So, I'm trading Dozier, who is surplus, for prospects with a design on sustaining competitive excellence over time. I'm keeping Ervin, because I lack a current surplus and no one will overpay me anyway. He's worth more to me than to another team.

 

How do I get from pretender to contender in 2018? Internal progress, taking my chances that the young guys come into their own, that guys like Chargois and Gonsalves come through, that guys like May and Thorpe recover, and one special FA move for a bona fide frontline starter. Can't count on trades or this year's draft.

Edited May 12, 2017 by birdwatcher

[Mike Sixel]

 

I'm not concerned much about whether the Twins get pitching or position players in return for Dozier. For a number of reasons. One, I don't think Dozier fetches a MLB starter who vaults the team from pretender status into contenders. Two, if I'm GM, my sell discipline is not violated, and says I only trade from surplus, and I always get what I believe is an overpay, meaning I keep guys like Dozier when the offer is DeLeon. Because teams are not likely to overpay with anything other than prospects, I'm not counting on trading my way into instant contention. I have to be willing to make the occasional FA deal. Oh, and I'm NEVER depleting my farm system to make a run, ever. I want to avoid cycling in and out of the picture if possible.

 

So, I'm trading Dozier, who is surplus, for prospects with a design on sustaining competitive excellence over time. I'm keeping Ervin, because I lack a current surplus and no one will overpay me anyway. He's worth more to me than to another team.

 

How do I get from pretender to contender in 2018? Internal progress, taking my chances that the young guys come into their own, that guys like Chargois and Gonsalves come through, that guys like May and Thorpe recover, and one special FA move for a bona fide frontline starter. Can't count on trades or this year's draft.

 

great post. You are on fire this week!

[Mike Sixel]

Damnit, I passed 20K in posts on lame 1 sentence posts!

[Jham]

 

I'm not concerned much about whether the Twins get pitching or position players in return for Dozier. For a number of reasons. One, I don't think Dozier fetches a MLB starter who vaults the team from pretender status into contenders. Two, if I'm GM, my sell discipline is not violated, and says I only trade from surplus, and I always get what I believe is an overpay, meaning I keep guys like Dozier when the offer is DeLeon. Because teams are not likely to overpay with anything other than prospects, I'm not counting on trading my way into instant contention. I have to be willing to make the occasional FA deal. Oh, and I'm NEVER depleting my farm system to make a run, ever. I want to avoid cycling in and out of the picture if possible.

 

So, I'm trading Dozier, who is surplus, for prospects with a design on sustaining competitive excellence over time. I'm keeping Ervin, because I lack a current surplus and no one will overpay me anyway. He's worth more to me than to another team.

 

How do I get from pretender to contender in 2018? Internal progress, taking my chances that the young guys come into their own, that guys like Chargois and Gonsalves come through, that guys like May and Thorpe recover, and one special FA move for a bona fide frontline starter. Can't count on trades or this year's draft.

I appreciate the thought out plan, but I don't love the rigidity.  Teams should always be looking for ways to increase their talent pool, both in the majors and on the farm.  You suggest that you trade from the surplus, but state that you're NEVER depleting your farm system to make a run. What if you have a surplus of minor league talent?  What if you find out a guy is a club house distraction or injury risk?  Plans are great when things go according to.. er... plan...  but they rarely do.  A FO has to be dynamic and balanced.
 

[KirbyDome89]

 

If De Leon was Jose Berrios, maybe that's a fair deal (Dozier for De Leon). I'd still say it's a bit light on the Twins side of things but it's closer to the ballpark for sure.

 

But De Leon isn't Berrios. He has a career high IP of 114. And he's injured... again. This time, it may end in Tommy John surgery.

 

My concern with De Leon wasn't his talent, it's the fact the guy can't stay on the field. Compare that to Berrios, who is both younger and has been a professional workhorse since the age of 18.

 

Good pitchers don't matter if they don't pitch baseball games. Maybe De Leon turns into a workhorse but there are questions about the durability of every pitcher in baseball. Deservedly so, there are even bigger questions about 24 year olds who barely topped 100 IP all of once in their career.

Dozier wasn't without warts. If I was the Dodgers GM and I was looking at that second half of 2015 combined with the start to 2016 I'm certain I would have hesitations about giving up a Berrios level pitcher too. Fair is determined by the market, and DeLeon was the best offer they could get.   

 

Where is this team going to find pitching? A lot of posters, myself included, want them to actually be players in the FA market but honestly, what are the chances that they sign even a number 2 starter? There isn't any help coming from the farm system either. Ervin is going to be 36 years old when his contract is up in two years, and Dozier can follow him out the door that offseason if he chooses. These guys are good players, and I get that nobody likes seeing their team trade away players of that caliber but at what point do they just admit that even if the deal isn't square in their eyes, it ultimately helps them out? If they're going to sit and wait for a king's ransom then they'll likely watch those guys leave. Do they trade what talent they can from the farm and cross their fingers they find a couple Jake Arrieta type pitchers?  

[Brock Beauchamp]

 

Dozier wasn't without warts. If I was the Dodgers GM and I was looking at that second half of 2015 combined with the start to 2016 I'm certain I would have hesitations about giving up a Berrios level pitcher too. Fair is determined by the market, and DeLeon was the best offer they could get.   

 

Where is this team going to find pitching? A lot of posters, myself included, want them to actually be players in the FA market but honestly, what are the chances that they sign even a number 2 starter? There isn't any help coming from the farm system either. Ervin is going to be 36 years old when his contract is up in two years, and Dozier can follow him out the door that offseason if he chooses. These guys are good players, and I get that nobody likes seeing their team trade away players of that caliber but at what point do they just admit that even if the deal isn't square in their eyes, it ultimately helps them out? If they're going to sit and wait for a king's ransom then they'll likely watch those guys leave. Do they trade what talent they can from the farm and cross their fingers they find a couple Jake Arrieta type pitchers?  

It's hard to look at the Dozier situation and say anything but "thanks, Falvey". Dozier is having a middling season by his standards but has heated up in the past two weeks, posting an OPS over 1.000.

 

De Leon is injured, just as many of us worried he may be.

 

While we can gnash our teeth about the lack of pitching, it's folly to point to the Dozier non-deal as anything but the right move. The Twins still have Dozier - a healthy, good player - while the Rays currently have an oft-injured pitcher who may not pitch again until mid to late 2018 (we'll see how this rehab goes).

 

De Leon would have helped the Twins how, exactly? The team still has a tradable asset in Brian Dozier while the Rays have a big ol' question mark in De Leon.

[KirbyDome89]

 

It's hard to look at the Dozier situation and say anything but "thank, Falvey". Dozier is having a middling season by his standards but has heated up in the past two weeks, posting an OPS over 1.000.

 

De Leon is injured, just as many of us worried he may be.

 

While we can gnash our teeth about the lack of pitching, it's folly to point to the Dozier non-deal as anything but the right move. The Twins still have Dozier - a healthy, good player - while the Rays currently have an oft-injured pitcher who may not pitch again until mid to late 2018 (we'll see how this rehab goes).

 

De Leon would have helped the Twins how, exactly? The team still has a tradable asset in Brian Dozier while the Rays have a big ol' question mark in De Leon.

The Rays have him past 2018 right? And he's cheaper right? And he would fill as massive hole on the team right? They have a healthy 2B, but how is their pitching looking? How about next year? How about 3-4 years from now? 

 

Folly is thinking that Dozier's status a tradable asset hasn't been damaged (or exposed) by his start this season. If DeLeon wasn't enough after his 42 HR season then good luck convincing another team to give you a better deal. 

 

This goes way beyond just this year. Everybody needs to get over the idea that a push for a one game wild card is somehow more valuable than sustained contention with a decent rotation. Enjoy two more years of Dozier and another 5+ of s*** pitching I guess. Like I said, where are they getting arms if not through trades? If they're just going to draw lines in the sand and refuse to move these guys for pitchers that could actually help the team beyond the next couple seasons then we'll witness a solid core of players and a patchwork of others that won't move past the first round. We've watched that performance over the last 15 years, there is no need for an encore. 

[Brock Beauchamp]

The Rays have him past 2018 right? And he's cheaper right? And he would fill as massive hole on the team right? They have a healthy 2B, but how is their pitching looking? How about next year? How about 3-4 years from now?

 

Folly is thinking that Dozier's status a tradable asset hasn't been damaged (or exposed) by his start this season. If DeLeon wasn't enough after his 42 HR season then good luck convincing another team to give you a better deal.

 

This goes way beyond just this year. Everybody needs to get over the idea that a push for a one game wild card is somehow more valuable than sustained contention with a decent rotation. Enjoy two more years of Dozier and another 5+ of s*** pitching I guess. Like I said, where are they getting arms if not through trades? If they're just going to draw lines in the sand and refuse to move these guys for pitchers that could actually help the team beyond the next couple seasons then we'll witness a solid core of players and a patchwork of others that won't move past the first round. We've watched that performance over the last 15 years, there is no need for an encore.

The Rays have De Leon for quite some time but he's off to a pretty bad start, a start many of us worried about during negotiations.

 

It was entirely reasonable for the Twins to ask for a lot more than De Leon during talks. It was also entirely reasonable for the Dodgers to say "Forsythe is fine, thanks" in response.

 

Had the Twins pulled the trigger on that deal and De Leon went under the knife eight months later, I'd be furious. And it's likely you would be, too.

 

Maybe the Twins trade Dozier for "less" than De Leon. So be it. But right now, the Twins are challenging for first place in the division and Dozier has helped them get there while De Leon hasn't played a game in the minors, much less the majors.

 

I can't speak for anyone else here but I'm sick and tired of watching a losing baseball team.

[USAFChief]

Damnit, I passed 20K in posts on lame 1 sentence posts!

We appreciate the brevity.

[Otto von Ballpark]

 

But De Leon isn't Berrios. He has a career high IP of 114. And he's injured... again. This time, it may end in Tommy John surgery.

FWIW, De Leon is back!  On a rehab assignment anyway, pitched his first game last night.  Obviously no guarantee of health going forward, but we could have some data coming in for him soon.

[yarnivek1972]

If nothing else, I suspect the next three weeks will answer this question. Up until now, the Twins have played a lot of teams that are currently below .500 and have not done well against the teams above .500 that they have seen. The Twins will play 4 teams that currently lead their divisions in the next 3 weeks. It will be by far their biggest test of the young season. In 3 weeks time the Twins will have played a little less than 1/3 of their schedule and I think we will all have a better idea of the answer to this question.

[Brock Beauchamp]

FWIW, De Leon is back! On a rehab assignment anyway, pitched his first game last night. Obviously no guarantee of health going forward, but we could have some data coming in for him soon.

Ah, thanks. I thought his rehab was tomorrow, not last night.

[ashbury]

We appreciate the brevity.

Brvty s th sl f wt. -- Wlm Shkspr, Hmlt

[akmanak]

If the Twins play anyone other than people in their division we are screwed. Prime example was the RedSox. People can continue to live in a fantasy world thinking this is the little engine that could, but in reality if we do not make some serious trades for quality pitchers we will continue to be a losing team.

 

Trade Dozier now for something to better this bullpen.

[ashbury]

If the Twins play anyone other than people in their division we are screwed. Prime example was the RedSox. People can continue to live in a fantasy world thinking this is the little engine that could, but in reality if we do not make some serious trades for quality pitchers we will continue to be a losing team.

 

Trade Dozier now for something to better this bullpen.

An established position player for bullpen help is not how I think of successful franchises being built.

[akmanak]

An established position player for bullpen help is not how I think of successful franchises being built.

I agree, but we have glaring holes. Our farm system is weakened and I just think his trade value is still high enough were we can get something decent in return. I dont like the idea of rolling the dice in the hopes he can start increasing his production at the plate.

[TheLeviathan]

If we deal Dozier again we should at least wait until (if) he heats up.

 

And not for bullpen help.  We missed the boat this offseason, in a big way, on that.

[bird]

 

I appreciate the thought out plan, but I don't love the rigidity.  Teams should always be looking for ways to increase their talent pool, both in the majors and on the farm.  You suggest that you trade from the surplus, but state that you're NEVER depleting your farm system to make a run. What if you have a surplus of minor league talent?  What if you find out a guy is a club house distraction or injury risk?  Plans are great when things go according to.. er... plan...  but they rarely do.  A FO has to be dynamic and balanced.
 

 

 

There's a difference between a discipline and a plan. Sure, you make exceptions when it makes sense. If we had a surplus in the minors, say at shortstop with Javier, Palacios, Vielma, and Gordon, then trading from that surplus does not deplete you, by all means, look for a way to move that surplus player for a player that fills a need or for higher-ceiling prospects that are further away. That's part of your discipline. And a clubhouse cancer is a liability, not an asset, so you look for a taker.  If I'm the GM, I'd even have an articulated set of guidelines for dealing with recalcitrants and what your process is for making qualitative judgments about discounting a player's on-field performance due to harmful off-field or clubhouse behaviors.

 

Ryan, in my opinion, was tactical, not strategic, and valued intuition, which is great, but only if you put some guidelines (discipline) in place to force you to really think things through before making a dynamic move, I really believe that some of the catastrophic trades under Smith were a product of his lack of a trade discipline (and advanced metrics is a part of this) and his lack of intuition.

[Darius]

What I know: This offense and defense are for real, and could be here for a very long time. You can add Wade as the fourth OF, Gordon

At SS/2B, another year under the belt of Sano, Kepler, Rosario, Buxton, Vargas, and Polanco...,and things are looking elite there going forward.

 

There are high-end bullpen arms very close to being here (Burdi, Melo, Jay, plus some). I've been disappointed about how they handled it this year...but it's looking pretty bright for the bullpen going into next year as well.

 

I'm my estimation, the missing part of this equation, obviously, are some starting pitchers. Maybe Santana has one more good year in him. Berrios is going to be good, I'm convinced of that. Mejia should be capable near the middle-back-end. There are guys like Romero and Gonsalves who could fill some holes.

 

So, in reality, why wouldn't this team go make a move in free agency for a decent starter? We don't need a Max Scherzer move to compete in this division. Guys like Alex Cobb, Tyson Ross, Tyler Chatwood, etc could all be affordable, and could offer some upside.

 

I think there are plenty of options to get a rotation out there that is serviceable enough to make a run. Trading a potential perennial MVP caliber guy like Sano at this point is insane. I'd give it a couple years before considering something like that.

 

The bottom-line here: the Pohlad's need to keep their promise they sold everyone to get that new stadium (need it to compete for free agents) and pony up at some point.

 

The, "Kansas City," approach is insane plan. That almost never works. That's like making your retirement plan the lottery.

Edited May 14, 2017 by Darius

[Dozier's Glorious Hair]

 

If the Twins play anyone other than people in their division we are screwed. Prime example was the RedSox. People can continue to live in a fantasy world thinking this is the little engine that could, but in reality if we do not make some serious trades for quality pitchers we will continue to be a losing team.

Trade Dozier now for something to better this bullpen.

 

The Twins currently have a winning record against teams not in their division. It's possible you're making too big a deal out of two losses to the Red Sox. Either that, or I'm vastly underrating the greatness of the Rays, A's, Angels, etc.

 

Also, I seriously doubt any team is going to unload a top-shelf reliever in the middle of May, so trading Dozier now would get us, what, Matt Capps 2.0? Pass. 

 

 

[KirbyDome89]

 

The Rays have De Leon for quite some time but he's off to a pretty bad start, a start many of us worried about during negotiations.

It was entirely reasonable for the Twins to ask for a lot more than De Leon during talks. It was also entirely reasonable for the Dodgers to say "Forsythe is fine, thanks" in response.

Had the Twins pulled the trigger on that deal and De Leon went under the knife eight months later, I'd be furious. And it's likely you would be, too.

Maybe the Twins trade Dozier for "less" than De Leon. So be it. But right now, the Twins are challenging for first place in the division and Dozier has helped them get there while De Leon hasn't played a game in the minors, much less the majors.

I can't speak for anyone else here but I'm sick and tired of watching a losing baseball team.

I would be thrilled that they moved a player who has the ability to walk in a couple years while he was at peak value. 

 

So be it? 

 

Everybody is tired of watching losing baseball, which is why I'm not in favor of turning down future help for the pitching staff in an attempt to sneak into a one game wild card. A .500 record through the middle of May is nice but building a competent rotation is better...

[Vanimal46]

I came into this season under the assumption that this is a ~75 win team. Because of that, I was ready to sell off Dozier, Erv, any veteran that produced. 

If they're over .500 on June 1, I'll be glad to change the strategy to contender, and think about buying SP instead of selling. Sano and Erv are playing at All-Star, even MVP levels at the moment, and both are healthy. The fanbase is so very tired of losing. 

It's going to be a very interesting next couple of months.... 

[Willihammer]

Keith Law weighs in on the Twins early success on Buster Olney's podcast.

@ 15:40

 

http://play.podtrac.com/espn-baseballtonightwithbusterolney/c.espnradio.com/audio/3354214/baseball_2017-05-15-105614.64k.mp3?ad_params=zones%3DPreroll%2CPreroll2%2CMidroll%2CMidroll2%2CMidroll3%2CMidroll4%2CMidroll5%2CMidroll6%2CPostroll%2CPostroll2%7Cstation_id%3D641

 

 

[drjim]

 

Keith Law weighs in on the Twins early success on Buster Olney's podcast.

@ 15:40

 

http://play.podtrac.com/espn-baseballtonightwithbusterolney/c.espnradio.com/audio/3354214/baseball_2017-05-15-105614.64k.mp3?ad_params=zones%3DPreroll%2CPreroll2%2CMidroll%2CMidroll2%2CMidroll3%2CMidroll4%2CMidroll5%2CMidroll6%2CPostroll%2CPostroll2%7Cstation_id%3D641

 

I mostly agree. I do think he is downplaying the run prevention situation a little (due to significantly better defense) and I would leave a little space for positive regression for the lineup. But yes, the pitching is set to regress negatively unless Berrios is a hero, Gibson rebounds and returns, and the young relievers come up soon and dominate.

[Willihammer]

 

I mostly agree. I do think he is downplaying the run prevention situation a little (due to significantly better defense) and I would leave a little space for positive regression for the lineup. But yes, the pitching is set to regress negatively unless Berrios is a hero, Gibson rebounds and returns, and the young relievers come up soon and dominate.

None of that I'd consider very likely.

 

Kinda sobering. I want to believe but maybe the smart move is to sell this year as Law says.

[drjim]

 

None of that I'd consider very likely.

 

Kinda sobering. I want to believe but maybe the smart move is to sell this year as Law says.

 

I don't consider the pitching aspect likely either. It will almost certainly catch up to them.

 

I'm not opposed to selling, but I want to see them really start losing first. I just don't think the AL is all that good. And I think being in a playoff race in September has value going forward for a young lineup.

 

EDIT: Just look at what being in the race did for the 2015-16 team! But this team is different than 2015, much brighter future.

Edited May 15, 2017 by drjim