Article: Twins Minor League Report (5/7): Berrios On The Brink

[Pitz]

LaMonte Wade's last 18 games:

.420/.557/.680

4 doubles, 3 homeruns, 17 walks, 11 strikeouts

[Willihammer]

 

Berrios just keeps using up those bullets in AAA. Not a huge fan of that right now.

Honestly, what's the deal, here? Are they just praying he throws a clunker so they have excuse to hit some beneficial service time bench mark?

If Provus/Gladden know anything, the deal is the Twins want Berrios' next call up to be his last. They feel that letting him simmer in Rochester for most of the spring is the best way to insure that.

[Vanimal46]

 

LaMonte Wade's last 18 games:

.420/.557/.680

4 doubles, 3 homeruns, 17 walks, 11 strikeouts

 

Big, big fan of Wade. One of my favorites to read about over the summer. 

[gunnarthor]

 

LaMonte Wade's last 18 games:

.420/.557/.680

4 doubles, 3 homeruns, 17 walks, 11 strikeouts

Wow, very impressive.  I'd like to see him get to AAA (or the majors) this season.  His ability to take a walk is something we like.

[Vanimal46]

 

Wow, very impressive.  I'd like to see him get to AAA (or the majors) this season.  His ability to take a walk is something we like.

 

From what we've read over the last year+, he's a pro hitter who knows how to work a count, draw walks, and rarely strikes out. It's possible they finally have a traditional lead off hitter to plug into the lineup. 

[d-mac]

 

Anyone have thoughts as to what the next step should be for Stewart and when that should take place? What he is doing now isn't working. He has a WHIP of 2. He had a 1.47 last year at AA that through smoke and mirrors (as far as I can tell) translated to a 3.03 ERA. He simply isn't effective and has not been at AA really at all.

 

He was a bust. Really bad pick. That's why I'm not a fan of drafting high school pitchers in the top ten picks. There's just so little data on them and they aren't physically mature yet. Also, TINSTAAPP.

[d-mac]

 

LaMonte Wade's last 18 games:

.420/.557/.680

4 doubles, 3 homeruns, 17 walks, 11 strikeouts

 

I love me some LaMonte.

[Pitz]

Mitch Garver seems to be playing pretty sparingly. Anybody have any insights into why that might be?

[nicksaviking]

 

That's a, well let's call it an "interesting" conclusion.

 

We could just look at the median ages of leagues without making broad-strokes statements on the Twins prospects, many of which are good despite your ridiculously pessimistic outlook.

 

The latest info I could find, because all I'm willing to spend on this nonsense is a quick google search, was in 2013, where the Florida State League median was 23.5 years. For AA Southern League, it's 24.6 years: http://www.baseballamerica.com/majors/median-age-for-every-full-season-league/

 

Kohl Stewart is currently 22 years and 7 months old. Meaning that he's not only super young for his league, he'd be about a year younger than the median for the league below him.

 

This is simple google searching that you could have done before making conclusory statements. 

 

I don't put a whole lot of stock into AA and AAA age averages since both levels are littered with older baseball lifers. Stewart is young for the league, but he's not young compared to guys who hope to be regular MLB contributors in the near future; he's probably about average in those terms.

 

If the problem is his slider, I'd give him until the All Star break to see if he can fix it. If he can't I'm in favor of him dropping it and heading to the pen to see if his FB/change combo plays up. Maybe fly him to Rochester just so he can visit with Kyle Gibson who can tell him about how the sinker has sunk his career first.

[Vanimal46]

Mitch Garver seems to be playing pretty sparingly. Anybody have any insights into why that might be?

They've been splitting playing time 50/50 between him and JRM for most of the season.

 

Recently it's probably just playing the hot bat. JRM is heating up, and Garver is cooling down a bit.

[Mike Sixel]

 

They've been splitting playing time 50/50 between him and JRM for most of the season.

Recently it's probably just playing the hot bat. JRM is heating up, and Garver is cooling down a bit.

 

aaaaaaaaaarrrrrrrrrrgggggggggghhhhhhhhhh if that is the process......

[Pitz]

 

They've been splitting playing time 50/50 between him and JRM for most of the season.

Recently it's probably just playing the hot bat. JRM is heating up, and Garver is cooling down a bit.

Yeah, I knew he'd be splitting time with Murphy at catcher. I'm just a bit surprised Garver is not playing more at 1B/DH, especially with Park & Vargas not currently on the roster.

[ThejacKmp]

 

Gee, thanks for respecting my opinion. I thought this forum was supposed to be different. Guess I was wrong about that. Does that make me a big man?

 

There's a Salt N Peppa lyric about opinions that you should Google (it's a bit too vulgar for here, Google "Opinions are like"). Opinions are awesome but they matter when they are backed up by logic and facts - that's what moves them from "could bes" to "probablys" or even "certainlys". No one here was mean or disrespectful during the whole process and no one got testy until you started coming back full of fire at very reasonable arguments (Kohl Stewart is underperforming but he's still super young, we shouldn't give up hope).

 

You made an emotional assertion that multiple people showed to have little validity using logic and numbers. Doesn't mean you're a bad person or dumb, we all do that from time to time. Like I did that last week about Kyle Gibson. Things seem one way in the moment and then time shows that we overreacted (see Dozier, Brian or Sano, Miguel). Not surprising that happens more often in sports and politics. Fandom is an emotional thing - the reason we come on this board is to take that emotion and subject it to some scientific process in order to find a bit of larger truth. And because we have nothing better to do.

 

One advanced hint: when someone throws numbers at you, look at 'em and go find numbers of your own. If one person says "This is true" and the other person says "But numbers" the numbers always win. Numbers vs. Numbers is a whole different ballgame.

[yarnivek1972]

Twins first round draft picks that were high school pitchers, since 1990 and their performance at AA:

 

2013, Kohl Stewart (4 th overall); age 21-22 - 3.57 ERA in 116 IP so far

2012, Jose Berrios (32); age 20-21- 3.23 ERA 

2004, Jay Rainville (39); age 22-23 - 5.70 ERA in 192 IP, injury problems, never advanced above AA

2004, Kyle Waldrop (25); stint one, age 21 - 5.34 ERA in 59 IP, injured, missed all of next season. stint two, age 23 - 1.47 ERA in 55 IP

1992, Dan Serafini (26); age 21 - 3.38 ERA in 162 IP

1990, Todd Ritchie (12); age 21-22 - 3.86 ERA, but limited to 63 IP due to injuries; never really did well in the minors after that but did manage to log over 800 IP at the MLB level 

 

 

The 3 who weren't severely injured, graduated AA by age 22.  And they all did better in their second season at AA.  Stewart is 2.5 runs WORSE so far.

 

I feel comfortable sticking with my opinion.  

 

If Stewart was such an enormous project perhaps he should not have been taken with the 4th overall pick.

 

PS: Here's your "logic and numbers"

Edited May 8, 2017 by yarnivek1972

[Mike Sixel]

 

Twins first round draft picks that were high school pitchers, since 1990 and their performance at AA:

 

2013, Kohl Stewart (4 th overall); age 21-22 - 3.57 ERA in 116 IP so far

2012, Jose Berrios (32); age 20-21- 3.23 ERA 

2004, Jay Rainville (39); age 22-23 - 5.70 ERA in 192 IP, injury problems, never advanced above AA

2004, Kyle Waldrop (25); stint one, age 21 - 5.34 ERA in 59 IP, injured, missed all of next season. stint two, age 23 - 1.47 ERA in 55 IP

1992, Dan Serafini (26); age 21 - 3.38 ERA in 162 IP

1990, Todd Ritchie (12); age 21-22 - 3.86 ERA, but limited to 63 IP due to injuries; never really did well in the minors after that but did manage to log over 800 IP at the MLB level 

 

 

The 3 who weren't severely injured, graduated AA by age 22.  And they all did better in their second season at AA.  Stewart is 2.5 runs WORSE so far.

 

I feel comfortable sticking with my opinion.  

 

If Stewart was such an enormous project perhaps he should not have been taken with the 4th overall pick.

 

PS: Here's your "logic and numbers"

 

I don't think anyone likes Stewart's "progress". I think people are saying he's still young, and we aren't ready to give up on him as a SP.

[yarnivek1972]

 

Barring an injury or mechanical thing, just let him continue. He's young and he's already dominated the low minors. Even if he has to repeat AA next year, he'd be young for the level.

 

 

So, if I am understanding this correctly, the suggestion here is to let Stewart pitch all of this year in AA - no matter if he shows improvement or not and then possibly all of next season, again not showing improvement is not mentioned as a condition.  By the end of the 2018 season, Stewart will be 24 and still possibly not advanced beyond AA.   A lot of you are okay with that?

[gunnarthor]

 

So, if I am understanding this correctly, the suggestion here is to let Stewart pitch all of this year in AA - no matter if he shows improvement or not and then possibly all of next season, again not showing improvement is not mentioned as a condition.  By the end of the 2018 season, Stewart will be 24 and still possibly not advanced beyond AA.   A lot of you are okay with that?

Settle down there, kiddo.  There are a few options with Stewart.  Let him learn at the AA level despite his struggles, send him to a lower level which he has previously mastered or cut him. The last option isn't happening, nor should it.  Of the two others, I'd prefer to let him stay at the level that is challenging him so long as it's not an injury/mechanical issue.  The Twins don't have an option of building a time machine and redoing the draft.  

[yarnivek1972]

One looming problem with a slow approach or an approach that doesn't try something different is his roster status.  If I am not mistaken, he will need to be added to the 40 man roster after this season or be exposed to the rule 5 draft.  Unless he takes big steps forward the rest of this season, I don't see how the Twins can possibly use a 40 man spot on him.  It may not be an issue, because with where he is right now, no team could hide him on their staff all season.

 

So, I guess my original question remains.  At what point should the Twins try something different if there is no improvement?  Another couple starts?  June?  All Star Break? I truly can't imagine running him out there every 5 days (okay in the minors that's a tad more flexible) all year if he continues this way.  It could very well be an injury. But, he wasn't that good last year.  Sure, the ERA from last year looks nice.  But the peripherals were terrible.  BB rate, K rate, etc.  He doesn't give up many HR.  That's certainly a positive.  Looking at his splits from 2016, he actually pitched better with runners on than with no one on base. No doubt that helped keep his ERA low. That's exactly the opposite problem that Berrios has had.  Could it truly be as simple as not finding a proper balance or release point from the full wind up?

 

 

[KirbyDaisy]

Relief pitchers also play an important roll in a game.  Please add them to your player of the day segment.

[Otto von Ballpark]

 

If the problem is his slider, I'd give him until the All Star break to see if he can fix it. If he can't I'm in favor of him dropping it and heading to the pen to see if his FB/change combo plays up. Maybe fly him to Rochester just so he can visit with Kyle Gibson who can tell him about how the sinker has sunk his career first.

But, Stewart is eligible for Rule 5 this winter.  So if you move him to the pen this season and he shows promise, you might have to use a 40-man spot just to keep him around for 2018.  Might be better to let him continue starting this season, and try a bullpen conversion next spring?  Force other teams to draft "blind" this winter, so to speak?  Just a consideration.

[Mike Sixel]

 

But, Stewart is eligible for Rule 5 this winter.  So if you move him to the pen this season and he shows promise, you might have to use a 40-man spot just to keep him around for 2018.  Might be better to let him continue starting this season, and try a bullpen conversion next spring?  Force other teams to draft "blind" this winter, so to speak?  Just a consideration.

 

They aren't leaving Stewart off teh 40 man. I'll bet any amount of money on that, barring some kind of injury or attitude thing.

[Otto von Ballpark]

 

They aren't leaving Stewart off teh 40 man. I'll bet any amount of money on that, barring some kind of injury or attitude thing.

Well, we may already be at the injury point.  22 walks in 24 innings is pretty alarming.

[yarnivek1972]

 

They aren't leaving Stewart off teh 40 man. I'll bet any amount of money on that, barring some kind of injury or attitude thing.

 

 

There are currently 22 pitchers on the Twins 40 man roster (plus 3 on the 60 day DL).  I will assume that will be the case when the roster is set this November.

 

These are the guys on it now, including the DL guys, that are pretty certain to be on it in November:

 

1) Jose Berrios

2) JT Chargois

3) Tyler Duffey

4) Pjil Hughes

5) Felix Jorge

6) Trevor May

7) Adalberto Mejia

8) Mason Melotakis

9) Ryan O'Rourke

10) Taylor Rogers

11) Fernando Romero

12) Randy Rosario

13) Ervin Santana

 

Duffey and Santana would be the least certain of that group.   In Duffey's case, it will be dictated by his performance.  In Ervin's, based on whether he is traded.  Of course, if Santana is traded, it seems pretty likely that whatever pitcher he is traded for will be on the 40 man.

 

These players are on the bubble:

Buddy Boshers

Kyle Gibson

Justin Haley

Ryan Pressly

Hector Santiago

 

And that doesn't even include guys that are almost certainly goners like  Belisle, Breslow, Kintzler, Perkins, Rucinski and Tepesch.  While I would be pretty surprised if all 5 of the guys listed above are back, I'd be pretty surprised if all were gone too.  My guess is that two are back.

 

As best as I can tell (and I could certainly be wrong), these minor league pitchers will need to be added to the 40 man roster no later than after this season - some could be added before that obviously.

 

14) Nick Burdi

15) Stephen Gonsalves

16) Trevor Hildenberger

17) Jake Reed

18) Kohl Stewart

 

Technically, that list would include Lewis Thorpe as well.  But seeing as how he has never pitched above low A ball and hasn't pitched anywhere since 2014, I figure he will be exposed - of course low A ball is where Johan Santana had last pitched before the Twins plucked him.  There could be more of which I am not aware.  Anyone?

 

So, if the Twins do indeed retain 2 of the "bubble" pitchers, that would put 20 pitchers on the 40 man.  Not a lot of extra space.  Indeed, they may need to cut down the number of pitchers for some position players.  Park is still under contract through 2019.  You would have to think they will give him another shot at some point, but Falvey may also say "not my problem" and convince Pohlad to eat the $ 8 mil or whatever he is still owed.  18 position players on the 40 man seems dangerously low when you have 12 or 13 of them active on the 25 man roster.  Not a lot of wiggle room in case of injury.

 

My point in all this is that unless Stewart does in fact turn it around this season, he might very well be exposed to the rule 5 draft.

[Mike Sixel]

 

There are currently 22 pitchers on the Twins 40 man roster (plus 3 on the 60 day DL).  I will assume that will be the case when the roster is set this November.

 

....

 

My point in all this is that unless Stewart does in fact turn it around this season, he might very well be exposed to the rule 5 draft.

 

clipped for space....

 

Good stuff. You may be right. I'll still bet on the side of them putting him on the 40 man.

[Mr. Brooks]

They aren't leaving Stewart off teh 40 man. I'll bet any amount of money on that, barring some kind of injury or attitude thing.

I feel the complete opposite as you Mike.

I view Stewart as a complete bust at this point. I think, barring an epic improvement this year, there is almost no chance he's added to the 40 man.

I don't see how any team could even remotely consider carrying him I their 25 man roster all season, in his current state.

[gunnarthor]

 

I feel the complete opposite as you Mike.
I view Stewart as a complete bust at this point. I think, barring an epic improvement this year, there is almost no chance he's added to the 40 man.
I don't see how any team could even remotely consider carrying him I their 25 man roster all season, in his current state.

Probably depends on what their scouts are saying. If he's still hitting 95 a team might take a flier on him in ST to see if they can "fix" him. Only cost them 50k.

[Mr. Brooks]

Probably depends on what their scouts are saying. If he's still hitting 95 a team might take a flier on him in ST to see if they can "fix" him. Only cost them 50k.

No, it costs them a 25 man roster spot for a full season.

[yarnivek1972]

No, it costs them a 25 man roster spot for a full season.

Not if they send him back. Which I would guess was meant by take a flier in ST.

[Mr. Brooks]

Not if they send him back. Which I would guess was meant by take a flier in ST.

We'll have to disagree I guess on how much evaluation can be done in ST.

What was the evaluation of what Gibson was going to look like this year based on ST?

 

Ok, theoretically someone could take a flyer on Stewart. But right now that would be crazy.

And even in the small chance someone does, the odds that you don't get him returned is tiny.

[yarnivek1972]

We'll have to disagree I guess on how much evaluation can be done in ST.

What was the evaluation of what Gibson was going to look like this year based on ST?

 

Ok, theoretically someone could take a flyer on Stewart. But right now that would be crazy.

And even in the small chance someone does, the odds that you don't get him returned is tiny.

I put little stock into any ST stats other than maybe the last week or so. Prior to that there are so many non-major leaguers playing the stats are pretty meaningless. Also, every player has their own pace of getting ready for the season. The only time ST numbers are meaningful is if you have a rookie trying to win a roster spot. How does he look vs MLB competition? And even then you really have to almost be there in person to judge it.