Article: On College vs. Prep Draftees, Two-Way Players and Other Notes

[Tom Froemming]

We’re a little over a month away from the 2017 MLB Draft, and it appears two frontrunners have emerged as candidates for the No. 1 pick: Brendan McKay from the University of Louisville and Hunter Greene from Notre Dame High School in Los Angeles.

 

They are similar in talent, both are incredibly gifted on the mound and in the batter’s box, but there’s a big age difference between the two. McKay, born 12/18/1995, is only 19 months younger than Jose Berrios. Greene was born 8/6/1999, about two months after Jacque Jones made his Major League debut. If that doesn’t make you feel old, I don’t know what will.Jeremy Nygaard provided a recent draft update last Tuesday. He’s your go-to guy when it comes to breaking down the players in this year’s crop and mining information on what the Twins may do, but I found a couple of interesting tidbits of information to share on college guys vs. high school kids I wanted to pass along.

 

-The most recent No. 1 pick out of college who has made it to the majors is Dansby Swanson (2015, ARI). He played just 127 games in the minors before emerging for the Braves and was 22 years and 188 days old.

 

-The most recent No. 1 pick out of high school who has made it to the majors is Carlos Correa (2012, HOU). He played 282 games in the minors and debuted at 20 years, 259 days old.

 

-Of the last 20 Hall of Famers elected by the BBWAA who were draft eligible (no international guys), 12 of them were drafted out of high school. Just five of those 20 Hall of Famers were first-round picks.

 

-Of the 20 active leaders in career bWAR (again excluding international guys), 11 of them were drafted out of high school. Of those 20, 13 were drafted in the first round.

 

-Of the last 20 No. 1 overall picks, 12 were position players and it’s split right down the middle with 10 of them being drafted out of high school and 10 out of college.

 

-It seems to be a generally accepted idea that high school players carry more risk, but the last two No. 1 overall picks who had negative WAR over their careers were both college pitchers: Bryan Bullington (2002, PIT) and Matt Anderson (1997, DET).

 

So what does all this mean in relation to McKay vs. Greene? Well, nothing really. But it does show that there’s really no way you can say for certain whether it’s better to target college players or high school players.

 

And it may not be just a two-horse race at this point. There are a few more guys who appear to be in the mix for the first overall pick. It’ll be fascinating to follow the Twins’ process of finding their guy.

 

The MLB draft is such a crapshoot. Trying to compare a 21-year-old collegiate player to a 17-year-old high school player seems like about as difficult a task as you could assign to an evaluator. McKay has been outstanding, but can you imagine what a 21-year-old Hunter Greene would look like playing in the Big East?

 

I’d better pump the breaks, Greene doesn’t need any more hype. Sports Illustrated is already calling him baseball’s LeBron James, the next Babe Ruth and they compared him to Noah Syndergaard on the mound and Alex Rodriguez in the field.

 

No pressure, kid.

 

Two-Way Players

 

I don’t know about all this Thor plus A-Rod talk, but Green can hit 100 mph on the mound and has won some high-profile showcase home run derbys. McKay has a 2.15 ERA and 12.8 K/9 on the hill and .390 average with 14 homers, four of which he hit in one game.

 

Both are expected to be drafted as pitchers, but J.J. Cooper of Baseball America recently speculated that both would still be first-round picks as strictly hitters. With them both expecting to be such high-profile picks, it seems unlikely either will continue to be two-way players in their professional careers, but who knows?

 

NPB superstar Shohei Otani is such a dominant force on both sides of the game that it wouldn’t shock me for an MLB team to try to develop a two-way superstar at some point. There are always guys here and there that successfully convert from one aspect of the game to another. Rick Ankiel was a major leaguer as a pitcher and a position player, just never both at the same time. Guys like Kenley Jansen, Joe Nathan and Matt Bush (among many more examples) were drafted as position players and converted to pitchers.

 

The Padres have experimented with using Christian Bethancourt as a two-way player, but he’s currently in the minors trying to develop his feel on the mound. Last season, the Cubs used pitcher Travis Wood in left field three games... that counts for something. Reds reliever Michael Lorenzen has a pinch-hit homer this year. Obviously those are all baby steps, but it certainly seems some teams are becoming more open to the idea.

 

Former Twins center fielder Jordan Schafer was attempting to convert to a two-way guy for the Cardinals, but his elbow blew out. Same thing happened to Dariel Alvarez of the Orioles in his attempt to transition to the mound. Even Otani is injured right now, but he's just out a few weeks with a strained thigh muscle.

 

The increased risk for injury is why we probably won’t see Greene or McKay be two-way players in the pros, but I think before too long there will be a handful of two-way role players in the MLB.

 

UPCOMING

 

Friday: Eduardo Rodriguez (2.70 ERA, 1.24 WHIP) vs. Phil Hughes (5.06 ERA, 1.43 WHIP)

Current Twins have a .364/.462/.545 line against Rodriguez. In just eight PAs, Brian Dozier homered twice off him. In 43 PAs against Hughes, Dustin Pedroia has hit .390/.419/.829. Ouch.

 

Saturday: Rick Porcello (4.46 ERA, 1.38 WHIP) vs. Nick Tepesch (-)

No batter in the league has faced Porcello more than Joe Mauer, who has hit just .259/.317/.345 off the defending AL Cy Young Award winner. Tepesch will be making his Twins debut, and could be in line for an extended look with Kyle Gibson being demoted to Triple A.

 

Sunday: Chris Sale (1.38 ERA, 0.75 WHIP) vs. Ervin Santana (0.66 ERA, 0.71 WHIP)

What a matchup, huh? Sale has struggled at Target Field, posting a 4.44 ERA (his career ERA is 2.94). Dozier has three homers to go with a .973 OPS in 41 PAs against Sale. Current Red Sox hitters have hit just .198/.275/.321 over 91 PAs against Ervin.

 

ADDITIONAL NOTES

 

-The Twins allowed their first bunt hits of the season Thursday. Only three other teams had lasted this long without giving up a bunt hit.

 

-Phil Hughes has given up the most contact in baseball. Batters have a 88.3 contact percentage against him.

 

-The Twins pitching staff has the highest foul ball strike percentage in the league at 30.8 percent.

 

-Ehire Adrianza’s rehab assignment ends May 10. While down on the farm, he has hit .310/.383/.357 and appeared in the outfield for the first time in his professional career.

 

-Max Kepler had his struggles in the second half of 2016, batting .223/.304/.391. It was nice to see him put together a tremendous April (.280/.368/.476).

 

-On Thursday, Eddie Rosario extended his hitting streak to 14 games with a home run. He also drew his fourth walk of the season. It took him 95 PAs to reach that mark, which isn’t great, but last year it took him 158 PAs to get to four unintentional walks.

 

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[nytwinsfan]

  Quote

NPB superstar Shohei Otani is such a dominant force on both sides of the game that it wouldn’t shock me for an MLB team to try to develop a two-way superstar at some point.

 

 

This is more likely to be the case for McKay in my opinion, because (1) he is much closer to the MLB, so there is much less development time for his hitting development to slow him down/lead to an injury, (2) he is considered to have the superior bat to Greene even considering their stage of development, and (3) he doesn't play an up-the-middle position, so he could just focus on hitting (and maybe some 1B) without having to also develop his fielding in order to get into the lineup.

 

If I were the Twins, I'd take McKay, let him hit the rest of this year in Ceder Rapids, and see how he does. If he dominates at CR, I'd start him off next year in CR or FM pitching every fifth game and hitting another 2-4 days a week, almost entirely against righties. See how it goes. I'd let him hit as long as his hitting development more or less keeps up with his pitching development, but I'd let his pitching be basically the sole determinant of when he is promoted at least until he reaches AA/AAA.  At that point I'd look at where he is and if his hitting is still that of a very good prospect, I might consider slowing his development down a little bit in the possibility that he could be a major league two-way player who pitches every fifth game and starts at DH or 1B against righties 2 or 3 days a week. If his hitting develops significantly slower than his pitching and/or he shows signs of physically wearing down/or having any sort of injury concern, I'd cut the hitting right away and move him to a full time pitcher.  I just don't think there is that much of an injury/development risk from having him take BP and playing in games as a DH against righties. With Greene the risks of trying to develop him as a two-way player are much greater.

[Han Joelo]

I don't care who the Twins pick, as long as they don't screw it up.  I don't want to have to read comments for the next twenty years about how they missed out on future hall of famer ______________.

 

No pressure, Derek and Thad, your everlasting legacy is at stake. (did I just type that?  am I back at seventh-grade Church camp resenting those cool preppy kids from the city?)

[BoofBonser]

Take Greene 
 

[jrod23]

What stretch to sell magazines.  Babe Ruth & LeBron James, Noah & A-Rod?  Pump the breaks LEE JENKINS!!!  That being said, sounds like the kid's got a great head on his shoulders.  I'm good with either, but McKay could be around sooner and help this generation of players when they come to prime.  I like them both.  Heart says Greene, but McKay's legit.

I'd like to know the extensive build up and come down regiment pitchers follow.  It almost seems like two completely different sports played by pitchers and position players.  I'll always wonder why it can't be done.

[DocBauer]

You know, there are compelling arguments for both of these guys, and not due to any 2-way preference. Greene is the top guy, no doubt, if you are of the opinion you go for the biggest upside. McKay has quality upside, just maybe not quite as much, but is also closer to ML ready. I think I'd be happy either way.

[ThejacKmp]

Interesting to see if Adrianza's May 10th deadline means Danny Santana is in his last week with the Twins. Perhaps the strong showing by Vargas makes this more likely? If Grossman isn't going to be your everyday DH, he deserves more opportunity as the 4th OF. That makes Santana significantly less valuable.

 

That said, the Twins haven't really needed a middle infielder - Sano and Polanco have not demanded defensive substitution late in games and Escobar has hit so well I wouldn't want to see Adrianza taking his PT.

 

Not sure where I fall on it. Santana has the ability to steal a base and play a better OF, Adrianza has that new (used) car smell and plays a better IF. They're even both switch-hitters. I guess I'd stick Santana for the pinch running ability but I can't blame anyone who feels the opposite. It's just so hard to know where the Twins will have a need - OF or IF. My gut says the OF.

 

I think this mainly shows that the 25th man is not that important.

[108Stitches]

I've heard quite a few bad things about Greene's ego. He deleted a lot of very full of himself things on his twitter. When you blow a kid like that and give him millions of dollars, it goes to their head 90% of the time. I personally don't like the idea of giving an already ego filled kid the first pick, especially as a pitcher. I think you are much better getting a high school position player a la Kirilloff or Corea than a pitcher. And throwing 100mph at such a young age is virtually a guarantee you're gonna lose him for another year to TJ surgery. McKay would see the higher levels far sooner than Greene. Just my two cents

[bizaff]

I read somewhere that the off days of a starting pitcher are a big deal for recovery and that it's not necessarily a good idea for a starting pitcher to play in the field the off days.

 

Does anyone know the specifics on this?  LIke what the pitcher does on the off days, when he ices, etc.

[Willihammer]

 

  On 5/5/2017 at 8:07 PM, bizaff said:

I read somewhere that the off days of a starting pitcher are a big deal for recovery and that it's not necessarily a good idea for a starting pitcher to play in the field the off days.

Link?

[nytwinsfan]

 

  On 5/5/2017 at 8:07 PM, bizaff said:

I read somewhere that the off days of a starting pitcher are a big deal for recovery and that it's not necessarily a good idea for a starting pitcher to play in the field the off days.

 

Does anyone know the specifics on this?  LIke what the pitcher does on the off days, when he ices, etc.

That's a good question. But DHing on off days is less risky than playing in field. And also, McKay could not hit the day or two days right after he pitches, if that were necessary.

[caninatl04]

A chip on red and a chip on black? A roulette wheel also has a zero and a 00.

[Willihammer]

 

 

  On 5/5/2017 at 7:30 PM, 108Stitches said:

I've heard quite a few bad things about Greene's ego. He deleted a lot of very full of himself things on his twitter. When you blow a kid like that and give him millions of dollars, it goes to their head 90% of the time. I personally don't like the idea of giving an already ego filled kid the first pick, especially as a pitcher. I think you are much better getting a high school position player a la Kirilloff or Corea than a pitcher. And throwing 100mph at such a young age is virtually a guarantee you're gonna lose him for another year to TJ surgery. McKay would see the higher levels far sooner than Greene. Just my two cents

That might be true but we need to remember he's a 17 year old kid we're talking about. He is allowed to make some mistakes and especially with all the social media it would be very hard not to make some very public ones.

In the SI piece written about Greene it shows a kid who is very active with charity and seems to dedicate a lot of time time and energy to various local causes in California, so he's got that going too.

That being said it seems like maybe he's had the male version of a beauty-pageant childhood. Every single step of his baseball "career" seems to have been carefully plotted dating back to a very young age. Something to consider, or maybe its nothing.

[bizaff]

 

  On 5/5/2017 at 8:20 PM, Willihammer said:

Link?

 

It's in the SI link in the original article - https://www.si.com/mlb/2017/04/24/hunter-greene-mlb-draft

 

  Quote

 

According to [Alan] Jaeger, an arm-care expert who has consulted for eight organizations, trying to pitch and play shortstop in the pros is borderline dangerous. “There’s a cycle of starting pitching that requires a five-day regimen of recovery and buildup,” Jaeger explains. “You can’t just go out there the day after you pitch, or the next day, and throw across a field with aggression. But I’ll tell you what is possible for someone like this: He could be a closer and a DH, and he could do that very safely.”

 

Edited May 5, 2017 by bizaff

[twinsfanstreif]

"but the last two No. 1 overall picks who had negative WAR over their careers were both college pitchers: Bryan Bullington (2002, PIT) and Matt Anderson (1997, DET)."

 

This isn't taking into account Matt Bush who was a HS position player drafted in 2004 who never made it to the majors at all (isn't he in prison?)

[Tom Froemming]

 

  On 5/5/2017 at 9:24 PM, twinsfanstreif said:

"but the last two No. 1 overall picks who had negative WAR over their careers were both college pitchers: Bryan Bullington (2002, PIT) and Matt Anderson (1997, DET)."

This isn't taking into account Matt Bush who was a HS position player drafted in 2004 who never made it to the majors at all (isn't he in prison?)

Nope, that same Matt Bush is currently the Rangers closer. He's certainly a bust, but he has accumulated 2.2 WAR.

[Thrylos]

Just saw this

Gotta say:

Greene is spotting $300+ of free gear in that shot.

 

Which makes live suck for the good but unknown prospects (and the one that I hope the Twins are after...)

 

Totally lame, btw.  If I did not want another reason for the Twins not to draft him

[Willihammer]

 

  On 5/5/2017 at 11:35 PM, Thrylos said:

Just saw this

Gotta say:

Greene is spotting $300+ of free gear in that shot.

 

Which makes live suck for the good but unknown prospects (and the one that I hope the Twins are after...)

 

Totally lame, btw.  If I did not want another reason for the Twins not to draft him

WTF are you talking about?