Alex Meyer

[Riverbrian]

 

  On 6/19/2017 at 1:51 PM, spycake said:

Meyer was not out of options. He has been optioned by the Angels already in 2017.

 

Uff Da

[Bark's Lounge]

I don't really stress trading Meyer, what's the point. It's over and done.

 

I do want to note that Randy Johnson was kicking on 30 before he figured it out and he didn't become a pin point precision pitcher until he was in his mid thirties. They throw from different sides, but there could be some kind of comparable.

 

That being said, Randy Johnson is an easy HOFer and pitched at a masterful level until his early 40's. I certainly am not championing that Meyer will do that. I expect him to flame out, but some people 25 years ago thought the same about Randy Johnson.

 

Edit: Johnson seemed to harness his control in his 29-30 season (1993). That is still late bloomer territory.

[DaveW]

  On 6/18/2017 at 2:25 PM, Riverbrian said:

I am not talking about everyone on Twinsdaily but we had quite a few TD posters passionately asking to get rid of Nolasco.

 

Rob Antony did just that.

 

Ricky Nolasco and 4 million in cash for Hector Santiago

 

Nolasco finished with better numbers in 2016 and Nolasco has better numbers so far in 2017. So it looks like we got less immediate MLB Pitcher.

 

Both will be free agents next year assuming that the Angels buy out Nolasco's contract for 1 million.

 

I'm guessing that Nolasco will be paid around 18 million by the Angels since the trade and I'm guessing that the Twins will pay Santiago around 10 Million. The Twins also kicked in 4 million in cash which makes means there was no payroll increase or decrease. It was a money neutral trade.

 

Basically... It doesn't matter... Neither Nolasco or Santiago have performed well enough to declare a winner even if Nolasco has been a little better. Neither pitcher should be making anyone happy right now.

 

 

We could have saved 8 million by not signing Santiago but once we signed him... The money in the deal was neutral.

 

 

 

So we traded Alex Meyer for Alan Busenitz and took a small step back in immediate MLB performance in order to do so.

 

Now how does everyone feel?

Giving up Meyer was dumb, and remains dumb. They could have just cut Nolasco or banished him to the bullpen.

 

Giving up SP depth on a team with zero of it to begin with is and was a bad idea. Now it's costing this team wins in 2017. (Meyer would be our third best pitcher currently)

[DaveW]

  On 6/18/2017 at 8:47 AM, The Wise One said:

Multiple causes for situations.

 

Aaron Hicks had almost 1000 PA as a Twin I guess that was not not enough. Should have had more.

 

Some players do not work with some coaches. Bruno screwed up Hicks. It took a few off seasons and a year for Hicks to figure things out, after bouncing around with the Twins for 3 years. Other factors for Hicks doing well might include Hicks benefiting from being in a better lineup. Many different factors, No the only reality is the Twins were not patient enough.

 

The patience if played out as some would it with other players . With the Patient Dave approach Arcia still should be in the outfield here because he is going to hit someday. Liriano should still be starting here. The turnaround with the Pirates had nothing to do with coaching, see his results in Toronto. Valencia, Hendriks. So many the Twins were not patient enough with. Every 3 years when Worley pitch well in Dave world there should be an outcry of the ineptitude of the FO that let him go .

Hyperbole much? You referred to me 3 times and each time you took things I said completely out of context.

 

The two I have been upset about (since the moves were announced) were Meyer and Hicks, and yes I think the Twins gave up on both way too quickly

 

It's not like there was some massive roster crunch either, this is a team that until a month or so ago has Danny santana as an outfielder.

 

I do tend to think in general you should have paitetence with guys who at one point cracked the top 50 propsect lists.

[gunnarthor]

The bridge with Meyer was destroyed when Molitor sat him for 10 days and gave him one start with a quick hook. He went down to AAA and didn't pitch again with some sort of "injury."  But as soon as we traded him, he was good to go again. 

 

I liked the guy but it didn't work out here. If we hadn't traded him, Boras almost certainly would have filed a grievance in the offseason about his service time, claiming that his injury happened in the majors. It just would have been more toxic crap and one more extremely upset and unhappy pitcher. He needed a change of scenery.

[The Wise One]

 

  On 6/19/2017 at 1:48 PM, spycake said:

OPS+ is position agnostic. So a batter with a 100 OPS+ is a league average hitter, regardless of position.

WPA is very dependent on context, a very different stat. I've never really seen it employed in this manner.

OPS means they can get a hit upon occasion, WPA means that something happened because they got the hit. Context. The game is the context. Pretty meaningless if the lineup has 5 league average or better hitters by OPS and is last in the league in scoring. So if someone is touting that a pitcher did great by limiting this jugger-not of an offense to 2 runs it is more than fair to point out many others would appear to be doing the same. 

[The Wise One]

 

  On 6/20/2017 at 3:04 PM, DaveW said:

I do tend to think in general you should have paitetence with guys who at one point cracked the top 50 propsect lists.

Why top 50? The failure rate of prospects outside of the top 20 is very high. Hicks in only one of the three ranking servicse only ever cracked the top 20 once. That was when he was 20. Meyer only cracked it once also.   Kyle Gibson hit #34. Twins better keep running him out there on yuour logic for top 50. He will turn it around.

http://camdendepot.blogspot.com/2013/12/death-to-tinstaapp-updating-mckinneys.html

[jokin]

 

  On 6/20/2017 at 3:01 PM, DaveW said:

Giving up Meyer was dumb, and remains dumb. They could have just cut Nolasco or banished him to the bullpen.

Giving up SP depth on a team with zero of it to begin with is and was a bad idea. Now it's costing this team wins in 2017. (Meyer would be our third best pitcher currently)

 

Don't get me started... this will likely be the deal that will forever banish Rob Antony to the metal desk in the janitor's hallway.

[Otto von Ballpark]

Classic Meyer returned tonight vs Boston: 3.1 IP, 5 H, 5 R, 2 BB, 3 SO, 3 WP

[Otto von Ballpark]

Meyer was back to "effectively wild" vs the Dodgers last night: 6 IP, only 1 H, 0 R, 5 BB, 4 K, 99 pitches (54 strikes)

[Brock Beauchamp]

I think it's safe to say absolutely nothing has changed about Alex Meyer. Maybe he figures it out at some point but we're talking about a guy who is 27 years old. It's becoming more unlikely by the day that he will amount to anything.

 

Bummer.

[Otto von Ballpark]

Absolutely nothing has changed since when? A year ago there were doubts about him being able to pitch at all, or at least not above scrub level. But here he is, healthy for almost a year, pitching to a league average or better ERA/FIP in MLB (albeit averaging only 5 IP per start, with the usual control issues). Yeah, he's not appreciably closer to achieving his former ceiling, but I wouldn't say absolutely nothing has changed with him, or that it's likely he won't amount to anything. He seems moderately useful right now.

[DaveW]

 

  On 6/29/2017 at 2:51 PM, Brock Beauchamp said:

I think it's safe to say absolutely nothing has changed about Alex Meyer. Maybe he figures it out at some point but we're talking about a guy who is 27 years old. It's becoming more unlikely by the day that he will amount to anything.

 

Bummer.

What on earth are you talking about? Won't amount to anything? Are you serious?

He has a 3.74 ERA this year as a starter. Yeah, that's not hall of fame worthy, but if you can do that year in and year out you get $14 million a year on the open market. 

He had pretty solid results against the Dodgers (a good team!!!) last night, and would easily be the Twins 3rd best starter this year. 6 IP 5 base runners 0 runs?

I wish the Twins were in a position to "poo poo" on results like that from their starters!

 

[DaveW]

Over his last 6 starts:

 

3 starts 6 IP 0 ER
1 start 6 IP 1ER
One bad start at Boston
and one "meh" start at NYY

Overall: 2.25 ERA 9+ K/9

The walks still need work, but hes getting better.

Nothing has changed!?!!? Dave St Peter is that you?

 

[Brock Beauchamp]

 

  On 6/29/2017 at 4:15 PM, spycake said:

Absolutely nothing has changed since when? A year ago there were doubts about him being able to pitch at all, or at least not above scrub level. But here he is, healthy for almost a year, pitching to a league average or better ERA/FIP in MLB (albeit averaging only 5 IP per start, with the usual control issues). Yeah, he's not appreciably closer to achieving his former ceiling, but I wouldn't say absolutely nothing has changed with him, or that it's likely he won't amount to anything. He seems moderately useful right now.

I wasn't factoring in his health, only his pitching profile. He's still walking an absurd amount of batters and no MLB starter will succeed in the long term by walking two batters every three innings.

 

Remember, I'm one of the people who didn't care for the Nolasco trade because I wasn't ready to give up on Meyer, particularly just to shed Nolasco's relatively short contract term. Most of the board was joyous over the trade and I simply didn't get it.

 

But other than health - which is obviously important - I don't see anything in Meyer's profile that has changed my opinion it's highly unlikely he will become a proficient MLB starter. If he figures out how to walk two fewer batters per nine innings, then maybe he takes a step forward.

 

The guy's BB% is a tick over 15%. No pitcher can succeed with that number, I don't care if he's striking out 35% of batters faced, which Meyer is not.

 

If Meyer gets that BB rate down a bit, maybe he's a good bullpen piece but I don't see a scenario where he's walking that many guys, getting pulled in the fifth inning of half his games, and succeeding as a starter.

[DaveW]

 

  On 6/29/2017 at 7:54 PM, Brock Beauchamp said:

I don't see a scenario where he's walking that many guys, and succeeding as a starter.

So you are just going to ignore his last 6 starts where he has looked significantly better across the board?

[Brock Beauchamp]

 

  On 6/29/2017 at 9:13 PM, DaveW said:

So you are just going to ignore his last 6 starts where he has looked significantly better across the board?

Where he's still walking roughly 15% of batters faced?

 

Meyer may be getting along with some decent at-a-glance stats but that strike percentage needs to rise and the walk percentage needs to drop if he's going to have prolonged success, particularly as a starter.

 

And I hope he does that because I want to see the guy succeed, I'm just trying to be realistic about his chances. Command and control have always been issues with the guy and he's now 27 years old. It's likely this is who he is going forward, which will make him a very volatile pitcher. Even with his stuff, he can't have outings where he walks 5 guys. That will kill a starting over the course of a season.

 

Look at his last start against the Dodgers. 5 BB, 4 K, 1 H. He got through 6 IP with 99 pitches.

 

Sure, he gave up 0 ER but that's the kind of start that puts me on edge. He got 18 outs, only four of which came via strike out. That means one out of 14 batters who put wood on the ball reached base safely.

 

That simply will not happen with any kind of regularity. Starters who walk just shy of one guy per inning are going to get burned, especially if they're not striking out more than one guy per inning. BABIP will bite him in the ass if he keeps this up.

[Otto von Ballpark]

Overall, his FIP matches his ERA pretty well so far in 2017. So I don't think he's been BABIP lucky overall, even if he was in this particular start.

[DaveW]

But Meyer is striking out more than one guy an inning...

If and it's a big if he figures out his control, he has a really nice ceiling still.

Even if not, he still ends up being a decent cheap #4/#5 IMO

[Brock Beauchamp]

 

  On 6/29/2017 at 10:35 PM, DaveW said:

Even if not, he still ends up being a decent cheap #4/#5 IMO

See, I think Meyer's floor is a lot lower than that. He's a more extreme version of a guy like Mejia, who I also question ever becoming a legitimate MLB starter.

 

Having a starter regularly go

[Brock Beauchamp]

 

  On 6/29/2017 at 10:33 PM, spycake said:

Overall, his FIP matches his ERA pretty well so far in 2017. So I don't think he's been BABIP lucky overall, even if he was in this particular start.

His BABIP is on the low side but not unreasonably so. My point wasn't about his overall BABIP, it was about the tendency of a starter to get absolutely killed out there if the BABIP gods frown upon him when he's the type of pitcher who regularly issues four free passes a start.

 

Overall, Meyer might be able to hold his own in a rotation but if he regularly gets taken out of a game after 3 innings, no MLB team will leave him in the rotation for prolonged periods of time. The amount of damage done to a bullpen in those types of games is very large, as we've seen with the Twins this season. At some point, if the team has another option, even a less talented but more reliable one, they will likely go that route.

 

Again, I hope Meyer succeeds, but I think the chances of it are pretty low unless he starts throwing a lot more strikes.

[DaveW]

 

  On 6/29/2017 at 10:43 PM, Brock Beauchamp said:

See, I think Meyer's floor is a lot lower than that. He's a more extreme version of a guy like Mejia, who I also question ever becoming a legitimate MLB starter.

 

Having a starter regularly go <4 innings a start will kill an MLB team over the course of a season. Meyer, like Mejia, will need to overcome his tendency to get the boot after 3.1 innings to stick in a rotation for more than a few months. Teams simply can't afford the kind of uncertainty that comes with that type of starter.

Last 6 starts.
4 with 6IP
1 with 4 2/3rd
1 with 3

He's not regularly going less than 4 innings...

[DaveW]

 

  On 6/29/2017 at 10:47 PM, Brock Beauchamp said:

if he regularly gets taken out of a game after 3 innings, 

HE ISN'T!

[Brock Beauchamp]

 

  On 6/29/2017 at 11:14 PM, DaveW said:

HE ISN'T!

We're basically having two discussions here.

 

This is my point:

 

Meyer has had a string of somewhat successful starts, buoyed by a single stellar (1 BB, 9 K) start against the legendary Royals offense, the least patient team in all of baseball. Their offense is, simply put, incompetent (last in the AL in OPS).

 

He had what, at a glance, appeared to be an acceptable start against the Dodgers, which was primarily fueled by dumb luck (Dodgers are 3rd in NL in OPS, yet Meyer somehow lucked his way through one hit in 6 IP, despite walking 5 batters). One cannot expect to walk five Dodgers in 6 IP and expect success very often. Los Angeles will crush a starter in that situation far more often than not.

 

Alex Meyer, as it stands today, is still too wild to last in an MLB rotation for a full season. He can't regularly walk 4+ guys and expect success against MLB offenses. Half of his June starts have included 4+ free passes. 

[DaveW]

I'd still take his 6 IP 4 BB 1 H 0 ER over what the Twins toss out 60% of the time

[Rosterman]

I thought he was out of options going into this season. But guess he can still go up and down in 2017. So, they are giving him experience before they have to make an off-season decision.

 

[Brock Beauchamp]

  On 6/30/2017 at 1:31 AM, DaveW said:

I'd still take his 6 IP 4 BB 1 H 0 ER over what the Twins toss out 60% of the time

On that we don't really disagree, which is why I wasn't crazy about the trade in the first place.

[jimbo92107]

 

  On 6/29/2017 at 7:33 PM, DaveW said:

What on earth are you talking about? Won't amount to anything? Are you serious?

He has a 3.74 ERA this year as a starter. Yeah, that's not hall of fame worthy, but if you can do that year in and year out you get $14 million a year on the open market. 

He had pretty solid results against the Dodgers (a good team!!!) last night, and would easily be the Twins 3rd best starter this year. 6 IP 5 base runners 0 runs?

I wish the Twins were in a position to "poo poo" on results like that from their starters!

 

I was just thinking that - wouldn't Meyer be the Twins 3rd best starter right now? And all the Angels did was tell him to pound the glove back into the ball before throwing it. Got his left side squared up, problem solved. 

[Brock Beauchamp]

 

  On 6/30/2017 at 2:42 AM, jimbo92107 said:

I was just thinking that - wouldn't Meyer be the Twins 3rd best starter right now? And all the Angels did was tell him to pound the glove back into the ball before throwing it. Got his left side squared up, problem solved. 

For the record, I wasn't sold on the trade. Here is my first post in response to the news:
 

http://twinsdaily.com/topic/23418-article-twins-trade-nolasco-meyer-cash-to-angels-for-hector-santiago/?p=524494

 

I gave the trade a C+ while many raved about it. I had concerns about giving up Meyer when people were thrilled at the dumping of Nolasco, which I didn't really care about much.

 

For an additional record, Dave gave the trade a B in the very same thread.

[DaveW]

  On 6/30/2017 at 3:36 AM, Brock Beauchamp said:

For the record, I wasn't sold on the trade. Here is my first post in response to the news:

 

http://twinsdaily.com/topic/23418-article-twins-trade-nolasco-meyer-cash-to-angels-for-hector-santiago/?p=524494

 

I gave the trade a C+ while many raved about it. I had concerns about giving up Meyer when people were thrilled at the dumping of Nolasco, which I didn't really care about much.

 

For an additional record, Dave gave the trade a B in the very same thread.

I was blinded by my disgust of Nolasco.

 

But shortly there after (last year) I predicted doom and gloom bc I knew that Meyer was suddenly onto something (just like the hicks trade)