Article: The Joe Mauer Quagmire

[TheBoofIsLoose]

 

I agree with the author that we need patience here.  We have a substantial investment in him and he should get time to try and fight his way out of this and could be of value if he can get back to a .750 OPS based on high OBP.  That patience should be finite though.  Joe is the second worst starting 1B over the past 3 years (min 1500 AB):

 

http://www.fangraphs.com/leaders.aspx?pos=1b&stats=bat&lg=all&qual=1500&type=1&season=2017&month=0&season1=2014&ind=0&team=0&rost=0&age=0&filter=&players=0

 

The only guy worse than Joe over this period of time is Ryan Howard and he is no longer in the Majors.  

 

There is a comp for Joe and his struggles this year.  A-Rod was a highly paid ($21 Million) veteran last year.  He had an  additional year on his contract for 2017.  He was underperforming at 1B/DH with a .600 OPS.  The Yankees gave him through July to try an turn things around but when he failed to do so they told him he could either retire or be cut.  It will be interesting to see what the Twins do if things continue to go this way.  Will they have the guts to follow the Yankee model or will they let him waste a roster spot and AB's with poor production?

 

That won't and probably shouldn't happen. For one he isn't wasting a roster spot, who is being held back by Mauer being on the team? Comparing the Twins and Yankee payroll situation is illogical. Mauer is the only "bad" contract on the team, but this is still a billion dollar franchise. The Yankees had 5 players making over $20 million and 8 making at least $13, all while trying to go younger and cheaper. The Twins had Mauer at $23 and Santana at $13.5. Without even going into personal conduct, suspensions, attitudes, etc. the situations aren't at all similar other than production.

[Jacksson]

Since he has a family with whom he enjoys spending time, the travel necessary in MLB may be getting a bit old. Also, he has in the past not been open to management with regard to his physical condition; so who REALLY knows how he feels physically? Since he is unwilling/unable to: adapt his hitting approach to the way he is being pitched & defensed, cannot take a leadership/mentor role on the team, seemingly is doing a job and not playing a game and is being supplanted as the GOTO guy on the team; perhaps he will come to the realization that his days as a productive player are at an end and that retiring isn't such a bad thing as compared to the tarnish placed on his sterling performance history each time he trots out to play. With that in mind, what is it worth to the Twins, if he just walks away? The team paid like 3M just to get Park under a contract. So offer Joe a gracious way to walk away from his 23 M for 2018 by paying him to have a role with the team for like 10 years. Suggest: 5M a year for 3 years PLUS 2.5M for 4 years PLUS 1M for 3 more years. Joe gets 28M over 10 years, holds his head high and the team breathes a sigh of relief.

[Riverbrian]

In my opinion... Until Joe can turn on the inside pitch instead of inside outing it to left Field he won't be the same. He still has that sweet swing, eye and contact ability but if he can't beat the shift it's time to try others much more frequently. 

 

Another thing in regards to the organization... I would like to see the Twins prepare better for Success and for failure. 

 

Prepare for Success? What do they do if both Vargas and Park start performing at the MLB Level. Let's say Vargas continues to OPS over 1,000 and let's say Joe gets hurt and Park gets called up and starts mashing the ball upon call up.

 

What if Vargas and Park are just plain out performing Joe... What would the Twins do under that scenario?

 

I don't have the impression that the front office is prepared for that. My assumption is that performing bats will be spending more time on the bench than they should.

 

Prepare for Failure? This goes back to the many years of placing a half cooked CF out there and not having a decent backup for him.

 

The Twins over the years... in my opinion of course... Tend to name a starting 9 and let it ride good or bad while using injuries as the catalyst for longer term adjustments. 

 

I love Joe Mauer... he is one of my favorite Twins of all-time... but right now... I believe Vargas is better. 

[bird]

Great discussion and a comprehensive collective articulation of the problem that's causing this quagmire. In terms of reducing or even solving this quagmire, as a GM, I'd be engaged in this line of thinking:

 

A. ADJUSTING HIS APPROACH.  I'm dealing with a $23M annual expense that has a huge impact on the top line sales in a $1B annual business. Therefore, I've already verified that considerable energy has been put into trying to fix this costly problem that even the people over on TD can readily see just by watching games and glancing at a few spray charts. Now, because my coaches can't coach Mauer into making the necessary adjustments (and remember, I fired Bruno), and because Mauer either refuses to adjust or can't adjust, I now accept the problem as unfixable. We have stopped expecting a new approach. Mauer isn't going to change and the problem most likely will get worse.

 

B. ALTERNATIVE ASSETS. Okay, my people tell me they have certain hopes for Vargas, Park, and even Palka for 2017 and 2018. Beyond that, we can't fully foresee, but they keep mentioning a hope that a light bulb goes off for this Lewin Diaz kid. And since all the talk was this hope stuff, I even tried to partially solve the quagmire myself by signing that Napoli guy, who, as an important aside, would have actually been a fun guy for the players and someone who would project some energy out to the fans too. So finally, it looks like this Vargas guy could supplant Mauer. Time to sit Molitor down and get a clear understanding of how he's thinking about these things. I'm very concerned that I'm going to have to do a lot of the talking, because I agree with a bunch of those TD people. At best, we need to give up some of Mauer's superlative defense in favor of an exciting power bat. Or two, even, if Park turns out to be the real deal. This needs to happen now. I've lowered my opinion of my manager at this point.

 

C. LINEUP CONSTRUCTION. Speaking of lower opinions, I'm going to step in and put an end to this nonsense. I mean, does my manager really think the fact that Mauer doesn't strike out as much serves as a deterrent to walking Sano? I'm walking that beast to face a .250 singles hitter who lets my defense play on a half-field almost automatically. If my manager wants Mauer in the lineup against righties and for his defense, then he's damn well going to adjust his lineup construction. So we're going to have a meeting of the minds right now 1) about just how often Mauer sits, 2) about where he and Castro fit best in a lineup and 3) about who, if it's not Vargas, is going to make the opposition think twice about walking Sano.

 

D. 2018 AND BEYOND. I've already concluded that Mauer won't be with us in 2019. The question I'm going to answer during 2017 is whether he makes my roster in 2018, quite frankly, and if so, I've already determined in my own mind that it will be in a drastically reduced role. I've already decided that either Vargas and/or Park and/or Palka get past the hope stuff. If none of them are considered to be a reliable and superior alternative to Mauer as a 1B regular, we're going outside the system for one over the winter. But in any case, Mauer will not be our regular 1B in 2018.

 

In conclusion, I'm reducing the Mauer Quagmire by immediately reducing his role in 2017 in two ways, accelerating that role reduction for certain in 2018, and possibly eliminating the quagmire altogether in 2018. My focus is on top-line sales. That $23M is already sunk.

Edited May 5, 2017 by birdwatcher

[jharaldson]

 

That won't and probably shouldn't happen. For one he isn't wasting a roster spot, who is being held back by Mauer being on the team? Comparing the Twins and Yankee payroll situation is illogical. Mauer is the only "bad" contract on the team, but this is still a billion dollar franchise. The Yankees had 5 players making over $20 million and 8 making at least $13, all while trying to go younger and cheaper. The Twins had Mauer at $23 and Santana at $13.5. Without even going into personal conduct, suspensions, attitudes, etc. the situations aren't at all similar other than production.

 

Before I start my response I want to restate that I think any hard decisions on Mauer should wait until at least July of this year.  There is no need to make a quick and rash decision and he deserves a decent amount of time to see if this is just a slump.

 

In regards to the roster spot and holding someone back, in the last week Grossman has sat 4 times, Vargas 2 times, and Mauer 1 time.  Both Grossman (.780 OPS) and Vargas (.896 OPS) are seeing their playing time impacted by Molitor giving Mauer (.605 OPS) more playing time at their expense.  That is just the immediate impact on the 25 man roster.  In addition, Palka has a .768 OPS in AAA and Park had a great spring and start to AAA before injury so Mauer is also blocking minor league talent.  

 

In regards to the Yankees and Twins comp, I don't fully grasp your point on this.  I will grant you that the Yankees have substantially more franchise value, revenue, and payroll than the Twins but what I don't understand is why that matters.  The Twins are paying Mauer $23 million in 2017 and 2018 regardless if he is on the team or not.  I could see franchise value and payroll mattering if a team wanted to take a chance and absorb a bad contract but I don't see how it matters with a bad contract already on the books.

[yarnivek1972]

 

I love metaphors.  With this one, you'd have to say that every single hitter in baseball is a leaky house to some degree.  One room?  Two rooms?  Is the water pouring in, or dripping like a water torture device?  I think this metaphor, to make sense, would have to be quantified in some way, using stats or something.  Leaking rooms as a percentage of square footage, or something.

 

 

Not really.  If the roof is leaking in several spots, you would probably fix the entire roof. You probably wouldn't patch the holes.

[caninatl04]

When is Park off the DL?

[TheBoofIsLoose]

 

Before I start my response I want to restate that I think any hard decisions on Mauer should wait until at least July of this year.  There is no need to make a quick and rash decision and he deserves a decent amount of time to see if this is just a slump.

 

In regards to the roster spot and holding someone back, in the last week Grossman has sat 4 times, Vargas 2 times, and Mauer 1 time.  Both Grossman (.780 OPS) and Vargas (.896 OPS) are seeing their playing time impacted by Molitor giving Mauer (.605 OPS) more playing time at their expense.  That is just the immediate impact on the 25 man roster.  In addition, Palka has a .768 OPS in AAA and Park had a great spring and start to AAA before injury so Mauer is also blocking minor league talent.  

 

In regards to the Yankees and Twins comp, I don't fully grasp your point on this.  I will grant you that the Yankees have substantially more franchise value, revenue, and payroll than the Twins but what I don't understand is why that matters.  The Twins are paying Mauer $23 million in 2017 and 2018 regardless if he is on the team or not.  I could see franchise value and payroll mattering if a team wanted to take a chance and absorb a bad contract but I don't see how it matters with a bad contract already on the books.

I definitely agree he needs to be playing less, but I don't think Mauer is holding back Palka or Park. The numbers Palka is putting up don't paint him as somebody who absolutely deserves to be in the Twins lineup. It's hard to say with Park being injured, with regards to how the front office will handle that situation. 

 

I should have been more clear with the A-Rod comparison. The Yankees dropped him for more reasons than just a bad contract, that's why the Mauer comp is not exactly feasible. 

 

This is far from a win-win scenario, but Mauer is going to be on the team through his contract. The team is still a business and Joe Mauer is good for marketing purposes. Not many of the Twins have name recognition to casual fans and stadium seats need to be filled.

 

I think it's too early for the calls to perma-bench or release him. Vargas is getting at-bats, but is far from certain to keep hitting and unlike Mauer doesn't provide defensive proficiency. I hope Vargas keeps mashing all season, but it's no guarantee. 

[twinsnorth49]

Joe Mauer thread No. 8347.3

 

All with the same conclusion, play him less and further down the order. 

 

It ain't rockit sergery.

[darin617]

Just DFA him already. The team would be better off without him. Mauer doesn't bring any leadership to the team and you still pay him either way. It would just like ripping off a band aid. It might hurt for a second but you will feel better when he is gone.

[DaveW]

Walk off Hr! Hopefully this jump starts him a bit (turns the luck around a bit as well hopefully)

[Han Joelo]

Great thread today. A rebellion needs all kinds; Luke's, Hans, a couple Chewies. And an Obi-Wan.

 

Where did you dig up that old fossil? He may yet be of some use to us...

[tarheeltwinsfan]

Joe "Quagmire" Mauer just won the game with a walk off home run. That made me very happy. Thanks Joe!

[snepp]

 

Joe "Quagmire" Mauer just won the game with a walk off home run.

 

Giggity, Giggity!

[TNTwinsFan]

I wonder if he read this article in the bottom of the 9th and was like, "What the what!?"...good time for his first ever walk off HR.

[TKGuy]

He showed us, at least for one day

[jimmer]

 

He showed us, at least for one day

And even though he did well and it was a joyous occasion, people still took their shots at him.  Guess it's one of those can't help themselves kind of situations.  I went nuts when I saw it.  I was so happy for him and the team and to see so much joy from them all.  I was glad I was nowhere near my computer at that moment, though.

[D. Hocking]

I missed most of the game - actually turned on the car radio just as he was getting in the batting box.  Home run aside, did I hear that his earlier single was another pulled shot to right field?  If so, that would be the third time in a couple of weeks.  If he can do that from time to time, that will do a lot to lessen the effectiveness of the defensive shifts teams have been using against him.  Home run was great, but was also happy to hear about the right field single (if I heard that correctly).

 

When I saw clips of the hit later, that might be the most animated I have seen him after a home run although there did look to be potential for disaster for either him or Sano with the victory carry.  This is a pretty easy team to cheer for -- they seem pretty enthused and engaged.  I suppose it helps the morale not to start 0-9.

[jimmer]

 

I missed most of the game - actually turned on the car radio just as he was getting in the batting box.  Home run aside, did I hear that his earlier single was another pulled shot to right field?  If so, that would be the third time in a couple of weeks.  If he can do that from time to time, that will do a lot to lessen the effectiveness of the defensive shifts teams have been using against him.  Home run was great, but was also happy to hear about the right field single (if I heard that correctly).

 

When I saw clips of the hit later, that might be the most animated I have seen him after a home run although there did look to be potential for disaster for either him or Sano with the victory carry.  This is a pretty easy team to cheer for -- they seem pretty enthused and engaged.  I suppose it helps the morale not to start 0-9.

The infield was drawn in cause there was a guy on 3rd.  He hit a sharp bouncer through the infield to score the guy from 3rd.  

[Riverbrian]

 

In my opinion... Until Joe can turn on the inside pitch instead of inside outing it to left Field he won't be the same. He still has that sweet swing, eye and contact ability but if he can't beat the shift it's time to try others much more frequently. 

 

Another thing in regards to the organization... I would like to see the Twins prepare better for Success and for failure. 

 

Prepare for Success? What do they do if both Vargas and Park start performing at the MLB Level. Let's say Vargas continues to OPS over 1,000 and let's say Joe gets hurt and Park gets called up and starts mashing the ball upon call up.

 

What if Vargas and Park are just plain out performing Joe... What would the Twins do under that scenario?

 

I don't have the impression that the front office is prepared for that. My assumption is that performing bats will be spending more time on the bench than they should.

 

Prepare for Failure? This goes back to the many years of placing a half cooked CF out there and not having a decent backup for him.

 

The Twins over the years... in my opinion of course... Tend to name a starting 9 and let it ride good or bad while using injuries as the catalyst for longer term adjustments. 

 

I love Joe Mauer... he is one of my favorite Twins of all-time... but right now... I believe Vargas is better. 

 

Joe Mauer gave me the finger last night. 

 

[USAFChief]

Joe Mauer gave me the finger last night. 

I hope he gives a lot of us the finger many times over the next couple years.

 

But I expect to be disappointed.

[Riverbrian]

 

I hope he gives a lot of us the finger many times over the next couple years.

But I expect to be disappointed.

 

I remain hopeful that he will learn to turn.

 

But I'm not willing to wait for that date. 

 

1st line Rhyme was accidental

2nd Line Rhyme was forced and intentional after the accidental first. 

[ashbury]

1st line Rhyme was accidental

_{^{Yer a poet, and blissfully unaware of that fact. Ya make a rhyme, repeatedly.}}

[Oldgoat_MN]

I was at the game and I was very annoyed that Kennys Vargas pinch hit for Dozier. I mean, yeah, Dozier isn't hitting, but he's at least a home run threat, right? I thought Molitor should have let Dozier bat and let Kennys pinch hit for Mauer.

So much for my idea.

 

It was great.Really a fun game.

[Riverbrian]

 

I was at the game and I was very annoyed that Kennys Vargas pinch hit for Dozier. I mean, yeah, Dozier isn't hitting, but he's at least a home run threat, right? I thought Molitor should have let Dozier bat and let Kennys pinch hit for Mauer.

So much for my idea.

 

It was great.Really a fun game.

 

And that move would have been cleaner because Vargas could replace Mauer at 1B.

 

If Mauer doesn't homer... The game goes to extras and Adrianaza would have to play 2B while both Vargas and Dozier were done for the day. 

 

The only way the move makes sense... is if Dozier was hurt. 

 

 

[Oldgoat_MN]

 

And that move would have been cleaner because Vargas could replace Mauer at 1B.

 

If Mauer doesn't homer... The game goes to extras and Adrianaza would have to play 2B while both Vargas and Dozier were done for the day. 

 

The only way the move makes sense... is if Dozier was hurt. 

Dozier did roll his ankle but he stayed in the game.

Yes, extra innings played into it. I'm guessing Molitor values Joe's 1B play highly.

[drjim]

Dozier was hurt.

[D. Hocking]

 

Joe Mauer gave me the finger last night. 

 

I am pretty sure he gave you a subtle look of disappointment and quietly shook his head (which is his version of giving you the finger and shouting M&&&&&%% F&&&&&&&& from North Dakota!!!)

[Carneal&Gordon]

I admire Cody's writing but I've watched Joe's walk off 5 straight times this morning and it still gives me goosebumps. No matter your Mauer POV, if that hit and his and his teammates reaction doesn't get you, I'm not sure what it's all about.

[Shaitan]

That look on his face when he looks up after hitting it is priceless. I'm not sure if he's excited or surprised.