Article: The Joe Mauer Quagmire

[Cody Christie]

Joe Mauer struggled through the worst April of his career. While the Twins have young players populating the majority of their roster, Mauer plays the role of aged veteran. His future playing career is tied to his time in Minnesota. He will be a free agent following the 2018 season and for some Twins fans that day can't come soon enough.

 

With two seasons of Mauer left on the horizon, the Twins need to decide what the correct direction is with the hometown star and former MVP.Platoon Plan

During spring training, I wrote about the possibility of a Mauer platoon. During the 2016 campaign, Mauer hit .272/.383/.410 against right-handed pitching. His numbers dipped against southpaws as he hit 48 points lower and got on base 29% of the time. This was a stiff drop-off from his .267/.327/.393 slashline against left-handed pitching in 2015.

 

Mauer's numbers against lefties have dropped even lower this year. Through the end of April, he had gone 5-for-23 (.217 BA) with one extra-base hit and a .250 OBP. Batting switch-hitters like Robbie Grossman and Kennys Vargas might be better options. When facing lefties, Grossman has an .809 OPS this season while Vargas has a career .816 OPS.

 

Shifting Focus

With more statistical information available to organizations, baseball is making a literal and figurative shift. Teams have figured out what Mauer wants to do with the ball. "I know his numbers don't show it, but he's swung the bat probably better than anyone has," outfielder Robbie Grossman told the Pioneer Press. "If they weren't shifting him a certain way, or don't catch the ball, he's right there at the top with anyone."

 

When looking at Mauer's batted ball spray chart, it's easy to see what other team's should do to defend him. If he hits the ball to the outfield, it's likely to go to the opposite field. If he hits the ball on the ground, it's going to be pulled. Teams can shift their center fielder into left-center and move an extra infielder to the right side of second base.

Graphic courtesy of FanGraphs

Patience Is A Virtue

Mauer suffered through some bad luck in the season's first month. He posted a .241 BABIP which is likely to improve in the months ahead. For his career, Mauer has a .339 BABIP and he posted a .301 BABIP during the 2016 campaign. In fact, he's never ended the season with a BABIP under .300 during his entire 14-year career.

 

Over the last three seasons, Mauer has averaged over 100 strikeouts which included strikeout rates north of 16.5%. Through 94 plate appearances in 2017, he has only struck out seven times and his strikeout percentage has dipped to 7.4%. That would put him on pace for record numbers in both of those categories for his career.

 

April was rough for Mauer but there is plenty of baseball left to be played. Some of the numbers show he might be trending in the right direction even after the rough start. What should fans expect from Mauer for the rest of 2017? Leave a COMMENT and start the discussion.

 

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[COtwin]

They should expect more of the same. Listen. People have been shifting Joe for a while now and that chart proves that they are smart for doing so. Robby and anyone else who thinks like he does needs to read his own words. " if they don't shift or don't catch it". ???? Isn't that the point of defense? To put your people in position to make plays? Joe is probably unable to change his approach, because anyone in their right mind would have changed their approach by this point. It is actually pretty embarrassing that such an expensive and formerly highly thought of player has to face such aggressive and, in my opinion, disrespectful shifts. They are daring him to beat them and he hasn't been able to. If he is actually capable of changing, that is another story. Then, why is he taking so long to do it? We are watching guys like Sano, Buxton, and Rosario change their approaches and where they try to go to with certain pitches. Why can't the $23,000,000 man? And his BABIP isn't going to go up until he starts hitting with more power. I never expect his hits to be anything other than bloopers or dribblers any more. To listen to Dick and Bert refer to some of his balls in play, as line drives, is ridiculous. Even his homer was weakly hit. I have watched many of our players put time into their bodies, training and lifting, trying to get stronger, and you see the physical results. Joe's body hasn't changed much in a decade, and right now he could use some bulk behind his swings, because he doesn't have the eye to square up as much anymore.

[jimbo92107]

 

They should expect more of the same. Listen. People have been shifting Joe for a while now and that chart proves that they are smart for doing so. Robby and anyone else who thinks like he does needs to read his own words. " if they don't shift or don't catch it". ???? Isn't that the point of defense? To put your people in position to make plays? Joe is probably unable to change his approach, because anyone in their right mind would have changed their approach by this point. It is actually pretty embarrassing that such an expensive and formerly highly thought of player has to face such aggressive and, in my opinion, disrespectful shifts. They are daring him to beat them and he hasn't been able to. If he is actually capable of changing, that is another story. Then, why is he taking so long to do it? We are watching guys like Sano, Buxton, and Rosario change their approaches and where they try to go to with certain pitches. Why can't the $23,000,000 man? And his BABIP isn't going to go up until he starts hitting with more power. I never expect his hits to be anything other than bloopers or dribblers any more. To listen to Dick and Bert refer to some of his balls in play, as line drives, is ridiculous. Even his homer was weakly hit. I have watched many of our players put time into their bodies, training and lifting, trying to get stronger, and you see the physical results. Joe's body hasn't changed much in a decade, and right now he could use some bulk behind his swings, because he doesn't have the eye to square up as much anymore.

On the other hand, Mauer's average exit velocity is second highest on the team, which means he's hitting balls harder than anybody not named Sano. 

[David HK]

It's been a mini-Greek tragedy, watching how concussions have robbed a couple of key Twins of many productive years.  Joe (and Justin) were such formidable keystones for a good while, and barring those freak injuries, should have been for several more years.

 

But I have to concur with the above posts-- my gosh, how long have these defenses been adjusting to the oppo-outfield and roll-over infield patterns, and why in the heck hasn't the one hitter with the best batting eye I've ever seen been able to adjust to that, even minimally?  

 

But here's the kicker in the whole mix-- Molly's lineups-by-reputation.  A guy who's having the worst month of his entire career, entrenched in the cleanup spot. (And Castro a couple slots behind.)  Now, that is one of the biggest of Molly's many head-scratching moves.  Cripe, let him work out his stuff in the 7 spot.  Get Vargas backing up Sano, or throw Grossman in there sometimes.   Instead, our Mgr has maybe the two most intensely-slumping hitters in the 4 and 6 holes.  Fer cryin'......

 

 

[akmanak]

Mauer is not the reason we have been losing games. The entire 23 million dollar point is simply not valid IMO. The team has plenty of money to spend and have refused to do so.

 

Buxton, Santana, Kepler ect. can all be picked out for some of our losses and not just Mauer.

[mickeymental]

all the posts above, including the original, make solid points. joe's story is a baseball tragedy and loving a certain team is like living in garrisonkeillorville where we want all our players above average. but hey, joe's off to a good start for the month of may -- maybe this'll be the time he catches fire ...

[Jacksson]

Drop him in the batting order down to #6. Have a serious discussion with him on altering his approach at the plate to deal with the way in which he is defensed. Keep him on the bench against LH starters. Order a complete physical exam. Determine if day games/night games (I forget which) are still giving him trouble with his vision and adapt his use on the team accordingly. Quietly begin internal discussions with regard to a buyout of his contract after the 2017 season if he retires from being an active player and accepts another role in the organization.

Edited May 5, 2017 by Jacksson

[ShouldaCouldaWoulda]

 

On the other hand, Mauer's average exit velocity is second highest on the team, which means he's hitting balls harder than anybody not named Sano. 

In the air? I think he'd benefit from recent swing path and approach of in the air and pulled. Maybe too late, but seems to have worked for the majority of hitters going to it.

[LeatherAntenna]

In the article mentioning his positive strikeout rate among other things is like walking into a house with a roof that leaks in multiple places but saying, 'well this one room is dry.' Or as a poster mentioned his exit rate is better than anyone but Sano. Well a high exit rate means little when batting around 200.

[Han Joelo]

 

In the article mentioning his positive strikeout rate among other things is like walking into a house with a roof that leaks in multiple places but saying, 'well this one room is dry.' Or as a poster mentioned his exit rate is better than anyone but Sano. Well a high exit rate means little when batting around 200.

I love metaphors.  With this one, you'd have to say that every single hitter in baseball is a leaky house to some degree.  One room?  Two rooms?  Is the water pouring in, or dripping like a water torture device?  I think this metaphor, to make sense, would have to be quantified in some way, using stats or something.  Leaking rooms as a percentage of square footage, or something.

[twins_89]

Since the concussion Mauer has not been good, but due to lack of better options he kept his everyday spot. The question that really needs to be considered is whether he is currently a better option than Vargas/Grossman for 1B/DH at bats? I'm starting to seriously question whether Mauer gives the team the best chance to win games. I'm sure Molitor will give Joe more time to  get on track, but at some point if the numbers don't turn around the question of Mauer's playing time will have to be faced.

[LeatherAntenna]

I love metaphors.  With this one, you'd have to say that every single hitter in baseball is a leaky house to some degree.  One room?  Two rooms?  Is the water pouring in, or dripping like a water torture device?  I think this metaphor, to make sense, would have to be quantified in some way, using stats or something.  Leaking rooms as a percentage of square footage, or something.

water torture device is another great metaphor, thank you. The square feet would be whatever the square footage Target field is.

[Taildragger8791]

 

On the other hand, Mauer's average exit velocity is second highest on the team, which means he's hitting balls harder than anybody not named Sano. 

 

Or it just means he doesn't hit a lot of weak popups, which historically has been true for him. He typically is one of the top hitters in baseball in terms of avoiding pop-ups. That removes a lot of in-play balls with low exit velocity that bring the average down.

 

On the other hand, stinging balls into the ground to 2nd base doesn't accomplish much despite looking good on exit velocity charts.

[JaleelWhite FanClub]

 

Mauer is not the reason we have been losing games. The entire 23 million dollar point is simply not valid IMO. The team has plenty of money to spend and have refused to do so.

Buxton, Santana, Kepler ect. can all be picked out for some of our losses and not just Mauer.

 

That totally wasn't the point of the article. No one's placing sole blame on Mauer's shoulder for the team's losses. It's simply analyzing his struggles so far this year as I would expect be done to any other player.

[USAFChief]

 

On the other hand, Mauer's average exit velocity is second highest on the team, which means he's hitting balls harder than anybody not named Sano. 

I wonder if that's what it really means.

 

Statcast is new, "exit velocity" is new, and I'm not sure we really understand what it all means yet.

 

In Mauer's case, I wonder if it's more a lack of really softly hit balls.  He rarely hits the ball real hard, but also gets a portion of the barrel on the ball a high percentage of the time, so he doesn't have many really softly hit balls to drag the average down.  Few infield popups, few slow rollers.  Lots of medium soft humpback liners to left, lots of fairly sharp 2 and 3 hoppers to 2nd.

 

In bowling terms, he's the guy who averages 190 by almost always bowling somewhere between 180-200.  He's not the guy who averages 190 by bowling 100, 190, 280.

 

In any case, he's an argument that " average exit velocity" shouldn't be looked at in isolation as an indication of effectiveness.  At a minimum launch angle plays a part, and I think eventually they'll be considering spin rate at well.  In Mauer's case, the high average exit velocity has added up to .230/.295/.310.

 

Woof.

 

edit:  or what taildragger said.

[MplsFan]

 

Drop him in the batting order down to #6. Have a serious discussion with him on altering his approach at the plate to deal with the way in which he is defensed. Keep him on the bench against LH starters. Order a complete physical exam. Determine if day games/night games (I forget which) are still giving him trouble with his vision and adapt his use on the team accordingly. Quietly begin internal discussions with regard to a buyout of his contract after the 2017 season if he retires from being an active player and accepts another role in the organization.

I like this approach.   Very business-like.    Essentially like putting an employee on a Performance Plan.   Whether or not they agree with it and buy-in is up to them.  My concern is that Mauer won't want to.  

 

I tried to watch him closely during the 3 HR inning where he got his first.  The entire rest of the team were smiling, jumping up and down, enthusiastic.  I literally don't think Mauer ever cracked a smile with his home run.  He seems out of place on this youth-forward team.  I wish he could embrace his role as the veteran leader and find some enjoyment in trying to leave his legacy. 

Edited May 5, 2017 by MplsFan

[drjim]

 

I wonder if that's what it really means.

 

Statcast is new, "exit velocity" is new, and I'm not sure we really understand what it all means yet.

 

In Mauer's case, I wonder if it's more a lack of really softly hit balls.  He rarely hits the ball real hard, but also gets a portion of the barrel on the ball a high percentage of the time, so he doesn't have many really softly hit balls to drag the average down.  Few infield popups, few slow rollers.  Lots of medium soft humpback liners to left, lots of fairly sharp 2 and 3 hoppers to 2nd.

 

In bowling terms, he's the guy who averages 190 by almost always bowling somewhere between 180-200.  He's not the guy who averages 190 by bowling 100, 190, 280.

 

In any case, he's an argument that " average exit velocity" shouldn't be looked at in isolation as an indication of effectiveness.  At a minimum launch angle plays a part, and I think eventually they'll be considering spin rate at well.  In Mauer's case, the high average exit velocity has added up to .230/.295/.310.

 

Woof.

 

edit:  or what taildragger said.

 

Somewhat interestingly, exit velocity analysis will show that the best way to get hits is really hard or exceptionally soft (slow rollers, bloops, etc). The medium hits are converted to outs at the highest rate.

 

So Mauer's exit velocity consistency, combined with a spray chart that can shifted against effectively, have conspired to make him really efficient at hitting into outs.

[Loosey]

 

In the article mentioning his positive strikeout rate among other things is like walking into a house with a roof that leaks in multiple places but saying, 'well this one room is dry.' Or as a poster mentioned his exit rate is better than anyone but Sano. Well a high exit rate means little when batting around 200.

To counter this point I would rather have a .200 hitting player that hits hard line drives consistently, compared to a .300 hitter that is getting his hits with seeing eye grounders and flares into the outfield, because in the long run that .200 hitter will have more success.

[theBOMisthebomb]

It says a lot that even a Twins sycophant like Bert Blyleven would criticize Joe for his refusal to adjust his game to beat the shift. Decrease Joe's playing time or bench him and plug Vargas at first base full time.

[savvyspy]

Molitor isn't doing Joe any favors with the batting 3rd nonsense. Just move him lower in the lineup and hope he gives you anything. The fact is Mauer is a replacement level player and we have a season and a half before anything can be done about it.

[DEVA]

Mauer can't do anything with an inside pitch. He typically grounds any pitch on the inside of the plate between first and second, usually weakly. Pitchers know this and pitch him inside. Watch the pattern. Pitchers know he takes a lot of pitches early in the count. They work him away, trying to get ahead. Once they're ahead they pound him inside. Unless they make a mistake, this translates into many easy ground outs to second. Mauer is smart enough to know this and still can't counter it. That is his problem and that is why I am one of those that can't wait until 2018 is over.

[jharaldson]

I agree with the author that we need patience here.  We have a substantial investment in him and he should get time to try and fight his way out of this and could be of value if he can get back to a .750 OPS based on high OBP.  That patience should be finite though.  Joe is the second worst starting 1B over the past 3 years (min 1500 AB):

 

http://www.fangraphs.com/leaders.aspx?pos=1b&stats=bat&lg=all&qual=1500&type=1&season=2017&month=0&season1=2014&ind=0&team=0&rost=0&age=0&filter=&players=0

 

The only guy worse than Joe over this period of time is Ryan Howard and he is no longer in the Majors.  

 

There is a comp for Joe and his struggles this year.  A-Rod was a highly paid ($21 Million) veteran last year.  He had an  additional year on his contract for 2017.  He was underperforming at 1B/DH with a .600 OPS.  The Yankees gave him through July to try an turn things around but when he failed to do so they told him he could either retire or be cut.  It will be interesting to see what the Twins do if things continue to go this way.  Will they have the guts to follow the Yankee model or will they let him waste a roster spot and AB's with poor production?

Edited May 5, 2017 by jharaldson

[Darius]

Of course the guy isn't what he used to be, and was probably robbed of a few good years by concussions, but he still has plenty of value.

 

He's become an excellent defender at 1B. Probably Gold Glove caliber.

 

He's not going to win any Silver Slugger awards, but he's still doing some things well at the plate. There seems to be some outrage with him batting behind Sano, but I think it's a solid strategy in terms of helping Sano get some pitches to hit. Mauer is still respected enough by opponents, and still handles the bat at a level that deters pitchers from simply walking Sano every time. If you take a guy who you know is highly susceptible to strike outs (much more so than Mauer, which is basically everyone in the team), and I think it's a little easier to justify putting Sano on first base.

[d-mac]

Over his last 50 PA Mauer is hitting .267/.340/.422. I wouldn't stick a fork in him yet, but he is still along ways off from his heyday. Much of that I think is related to the shifts. 

[jimbo92107]

 

Or it just means he doesn't hit a lot of weak popups, which historically has been true for him. He typically is one of the top hitters in baseball in terms of avoiding pop-ups. That removes a lot of in-play balls with low exit velocity that bring the average down.

 

On the other hand, stinging balls into the ground to 2nd base doesn't accomplish much despite looking good on exit velocity charts.

Good point. Mauer's ineffectiveness is partly due to hitting balls where fielders are, rather than hitting them "where they ain't." Mauer's whole athletic philosophy centers on establishing certain habits, then sticking with them. Through most of his career, his batting style of letting the ball get deep, then executing a super-quick, slashing swing has generated excellent results with hits to the opposite field.

 

However, these days, a lot of balls he used to smoke down the line are peeling off foul into the left field stands, and outfielders like KC's Gordon are positioning themselves near the line to take away more of those previous hits. Mauer also his having more trouble squaring up balls from lefty pitchers, tho for a few weeks last season it looked like he was emulating Kepler's hand position on lefties, and it was working. It's still tempting for me to think Mauer's difficulties come down to some little tweak of his stance or style, not a general decline in his physical ability. 

[bird]

 

On the other hand, Mauer's average exit velocity is second highest on the team, which means he's hitting balls harder than anybody not named Sano. 

To the left fielder, who doesn't have to run to catch it. Or to the shortstop stationed where the second baseman should be.

[nicksaviking]

Yeah, advanced statistical analysis came around at the wrong time for a guy who proudly and meticulously crafted and stayed with the exact same swing since he was a teenager. I'm no physicist, but I'd guess the more constantly repeated the causation is the more predictable the reaction is.

 

 

[bighat]

Mauer is Mauer.  Walks.  Bloop singles.  Groundouts.  Choppers. More walks.  

 

The guy has such a good eye and he knows his bat is out of juice.  So he'll just keep walking.  Is that want you want from a #4 hitter?  No.  You want that out of a leadoff guy.  But he can't run.  So once again we have a problem. 

 

Mauer's an old player in a new era, a symbol of days past.  Give him credit for going out there.  Doesn't look like he's having much fun, but it never really did.  Not sure whether to feel sorry for him, feel sorry for fans, or just grin and bear it.  The Twins don't have much choice at this point, and neither do we.  

[TheLeviathan]

I like how exit velocity could become a really cool measure to study.

 

But I'm with Chief, perhaps we should be a little more cautious in how we talk about it.  We are just starting to use the data and see it, it's far from anything to draw sweeping conclusions from.

[kdrupp09]

Unfortunately as has been said previously in the comments, I believe we are in for another year and a half of him.  Hopefully we can see some adjustments to the shifts, however unlikely that is, which will at least force the defense to play a little less dramatic of a shift, which could help some of his line drives to left field fall.   

 

The question then becomes, what do the Twins do at the end of 2018?  Does he get an offer of a one year deal or does he just retire?  I'm almost more concerned about this than his hitting now, because as has been stated, he is here to stay for the next year and a half.