Article: Simply Getting Ahead Won't Save Kyle Gibson

[Tom Froemming]

Kyle Gibson will make his 104th start for the Twins tomorrow night, and a lot of fans are wondering if it could it be his last chance. To his credit, Gibson is coming off his best game of the season, but he's given up at least three runs in every start and has yet to complete six innings.

 

Altogether Gibson has an 8.06 ERA, 1.836 WHIP and he's averaging nearly as many walks (4.0 BB/9) as strikeouts (5.2 K/9). Meanwhile, Jose Berrios is pitching like he has no intention of sticking around in Rochester for long.With how poorly Gibson has pitched, it's surprising he's held on to his rotation spot this long. Gibson had a marvelous first half of 2015, but since then he's pitched to a 5.39 ERA over 250.2 innings. Opposing batters have an OPS over .800 against him and his WHIP is 1.53 in that time frame.

 

Gibson's career ERA+ is at 86, which is exactly the same as Nick Blackburn's career mark. Meanwhile, Berrios was named Twins Daily's Minor League Pitcher of the month for April after posting a 1.09 ERA and 0.79 WHIP for Rochester. Adalberto Mejia, who made three rough starts with the Twins, looked great in his lone start for the Red Wings (he's scheduled to pitch again Thursday).

 

Nick Tepesch will slot in as the fifth starter Saturday. The 28-year-old had a 2.00 ERA and 1.33 WHIP over three starts for Rochester. If Tepesch can establish himself as a reliable starter, that may cause Gibson more trouble than anything. When they feel the time is right Berrios is coming up, it's just a matter of who gets booted from the rotation.

 

Last Sunday on Go 96.3's excellent weekly programs Inside Twins and The Paul Molitor Show, both Derek Falvey and Molitor mentioned first-pitch strikes when asked about Gibson. Here's what Falvey told Cory Provus:

 

"Sometimes he's trying to get a hitter to swing at something out of the zone early and what ends up happening is major league hitters make adjustments, just as pitchers do, and he has a tendency to be too fine."

 

Among pitchers with at least 20 innings this season, Gibson has the third-worst first-pitch strike percentage at 50.5. He was at 59.4 last season. During that excellent first half of 2015, he was all the way up to 63.

 

It's pretty much universal that pitchers do much better when ahead in the count, but is that especially more important to Gibson than any other pitcher? Here's a look at how his career numbers compare to the other veteran starters on the Twins. For additional reference I also included Corey Kluber, Justin Verlander and Jose Quintana's numbers.

 

Batter Ahead Minus Pitcher Ahead OPS

Hughes: .332 (.943 OPS-.611 OPS)

Quintana: .352 (.896-.544)

Gibson: .358 (.919-.561)

Santiago: .373 (.931-.558)

Santana: .407 (.956-.549)

Verlander: .461 (.918-.457)

Kluber: .484 (.946-.462)

 

So being ahead hasn't been especially key to Gibson compared to these other pitchers. In fact, among the Twins' starters Gibson has the lowest OPS against when he's behind. But how about that first pitch in particular?

 

After 1-0 Count Minus After 0-1 Count OPS

Quintana: .116 (.762 OPS-.646 OPS)

Hughes: .121 (.804-.683)

Santiago: .150 (.788-.638)

Gibson: .171 (.814-.643)

Verlander: .191 (.743-.552)

Santana: .192 (.815-.623)

Kluber: .228 (.757-.529)

 

So, getting the first-pitch strike doesn't exactly make a huge swing for Gibson in comparison to these other pitchers, either. But again, it's always better to get that first strike, no matter who you are.

 

Career First Pitch Strike Percentage

Hughes 67.3

Quintana 65.7

Kluber 62.4

Santana 62.2

Verlander 61.5

Gibson 58.1

Santiago 56.5

 

I'm going to start calling my boy Hector Santiago "The Exception" because he's the outlier in so many situations. Terrible first-pitch strike percentage, yet still has a career ERA+ of 105, go figure. Gibson, like most other muggles (I suspect Hector may be a wizard), has not been able to overcome that poor first-strike rate.

 

So what's the point of all this madness? Well, before I pulled all these numbers I was wishfully hoping I'd find Gibson was a pitcher who was better than average when ahead in the count. That way, I could at least buy into the idea that with more first-pitch strikes he could return to being a solid piece to the rotation. That does not appear to be the case.

 

There's also the issue that Gibson has been dreadful the second time through a lineup over his career. One more goofy made-up stat ...

 

Second PA Minus First PA OPS

Gibson 107 (.827 OPS-.720 OPS)

Santana 58 (.742-.684)

Kluber 39 (.706-.667)

Hughes 15 (.755-.740)

Verlander -1 (.637-.638)

Quintana -30 (.665-.695)

Santiago -66 (.668-.734)

Brad Radke -73 (.704-.777, had to toss him in just for fun)

 

Most starters really struggle the third time through a lineup, but Gibson doesn't make it that far. He gets clobbered the second time around. If that doesn't scream "reliever!" I don't know what does.

 

So, even if he does a better job at starting out with strikes, Gibson's upside is probably mediocre at best. But let's assume for a moment he does bounce back to respectability, then what?

 

Gibson's only making $2.9 million this season, but that'll increase through arbitration. While that's very affordable for a starting pitcher, his competitors make the league minimum and will continue to do so next season.

 

How many more starts would you give Gibson? And if he's removed from the rotation, would you rather see him in the Twins' bullpen or the Rochester rotation?

 

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[DocBauer]

I simply can't describe how disappointed I am about Gibson. I truly thought he was a nice bounce back candidate this season. Announcers from other teams have even commented he has solid stuff, but it doesn't seem to translate. Whether he doesn't trust his stuff, his defense, or is just afraid of making a mistake, he seems to nibble to me.

 

I now believe/hope Mejia and Berrios will pitch a good half season, if not more, for the Twins this season along with Santana, Santiago and Hughes. There are multiple options coming up fairly soon for the pen, plus the return of Haley, and I'd send Gibson to the minors for depth, and hope he can find himself again.

 

The Twins will have the financial resources to sign a legitimate FA next off-season, should they choose to, especially if they would choose to let Santiago and Gibson go. There are a couple nice young arms behind Mejia and Berrios that could be ready at some point in 2018, plus a hopeful return for May. I think Gibson's days are numbered.

[tobi0040]

Great article.

 

In looking back at his best year, it looks like luck played a big role and he just isn't as good as we thought.

 

In his first two years he left 66 pct of runners stranded. It was 73 percent in the 3.84 ERA year. Spitballing numbers here, but if he had 150 IP and 200 runners, that is 14 fewer runs which would have lowered his ERA from about 4.64 to 3.84.

[David HK]

 

I simply can't describe how disappointed I am about Gibson. I truly thought he was a nice bounce back candidate this season. Announcers from other teams have even commented he has solid stuff, but it doesn't seem to translate. Whether he doesn't trust his stuff, his defense, or is just afraid of making a mistake, he seems to nibble to me.

I now believe/hope Mejia and Berrios will pitch a good half season, if not more, for the Twins this season along with Santana, Santiago and Hughes. There are multiple options coming up fairly soon for the pen, plus the return of Haley, and I'd send Gibson to the minors for depth, and hope he can find himself again.

The Twins will have the financial resources to sign a legitimate FA next off-season, should they choose to, especially if they would choose to let Santiago and Gibson go. There are a couple nice young arms behind Mejia and Berrios that could be ready at some point in 2018, plus a hopeful return for May. I think Gibson's days are numbered.

They need to get those young hitters going, then add a couple of those young BP fireballers.  Vargas needs to be in the lineup, and Park/Palka need to get up here, too.  Shaggy and Burdi, or whoever shines down on the farm back there in the pen as well.  Show some solid offensive support, and a back end BP to attract a FA stud pitcher to come to Minny.    Next year's market already looks a lot better than last years by a longshot.  

 

"Pitcher's" park, with fleet-footed outfielders, and young guys who can rock the baseball--  now that's a recipe for getting a quality #1 or 2 to come to the Twinks.

 

Oh, and maybe a new Mgr who puts less-than-out-of-a-hat lineups together.....  but that's just MHO.

[mickeymental]

the problem is obvious from the photo: he needs to keep his index finger OUTSIDE of the glove.

[jimbo92107]

It's too bad...Gibson really looks the part of a classic mlb pitcher. Tall, lanky, his stuff sinks and bends... But for some reason he just hasn't put it all together into impressive results. 

 

I agree that he should go to Rochester to see if he can figure it out one more time. It's like he has lost faith in his own ability to succeed. Very little confidence on the mound, which can't be fun. 

[Don't Feed the Greed Guy]

 

Gibson's career ERA+ is at 86, which is exactly the same as Nick Blackburn's career mark.

Excellent comparison. Blackburn put up very respectable mid-to-back of the rotation numbers during his age 26 & 27 seasons, followed by two miserable seasons. Same with Gibson. Blackburn was gone at age 30. However, the Twins let him pitch until August 17th of that year. My hope is that the bleeding stops by May 17 of this year. http://www.baseball-reference.com/players/b/blackni01.shtml

[bighat]

We're all frustrated and disappointed in Gibson this year.  But a demotion of some kind (either to the 'pen or AAA) has been coming for a long time.  It seems he had his best stuff in 2015, and also was extremely lucky - as were the Twins that year.  That "perfect storm" earned him a much better reputation than he deserved. 

 

The reality:  Gibson's a below-average MLB pitcher who is past his prime.  Do the Twins have room for a player like that on a 1st place team that's also looking to develop young pitchers?   I think we know the answer.  Fal-Vine knows the answer too.  Gibson's on super thin ice, and I don't think he'll be in the rotation for more than 2-3 more starts.   Will a couple mediocre starts be enough to keep his job?  Hope not. 

[laloesch]

 

We're all frustrated and disappointed in Gibson this year.  But a demotion of some kind (either to the 'pen or AAA) has been coming for a long time.  It seems he had his best stuff in 2015, and also was extremely lucky - as were the Twins that year.  That "perfect storm" earned him a much better reputation than he deserved. 

 

The reality:  Gibson's a below-average MLB pitcher who is past his prime.  Do the Twins have room for a player like that on a 1st place team that's also looking to develop young pitchers?   I think we know the answer.  Fal-Vine knows the answer too.  Gibson's on super thin ice, and I don't think he'll be in the rotation for more than 2-3 more starts.   Will a couple mediocre starts be enough to keep his job?  Hope not. 

 

Past his prime?     He's 29 years old.  If he squeaks through a few of these upcoming starts giving up 4 runs or less over five innings he will stay in the rotation for the foreseeable future.  If he continues to get pounded he might last one or two more starts before getting demoted IMO.  Just to be clear Molitor and the FO don't want to demote this guy to the pen.  They have too much development time invested in him.

[Blake]

I think Mr. Gibson has issues beyond the physical and he might very well benefit from a change of scenery. I hate to seem Gibson go and turn out to be an excellent middle of the rotation starter elsewhere, but, sometimes, for whatever reason, that's the way things go.

[jmlease1]

Gibson is without a doubt the most frustrating tease we have in the rotation. He'll have these terrible outings where he can't get through 6 innings, gives up 4 runs on 7 hits and 3 walks and isn't throwing strikes...and then a week later he'll go 8 and only give up 1 run on 2 hits with 1 walk. (these are actual lines for last year in July against Texas and Boston) You see him in the Boston game and you think about what could be and it drives you nuts when he turns in the next two starts of that are like the Texas game.

 

He's just not consistent, and while I've advocated for him for a long time, we've reached the end of the line on him. It's almost certainly time to move on. The tease has made us think that he will someday figure it out, but the reality is he's probably just another guy and he's just not worth paying $3M for, and certainly not giving an arbitration raise to.

[tobi0040]

I do remember being in the vast minority about 15 months ago when the article series about who the Twins should extend. Gibson was number one or two if memory serves. I am glad we didn't lock him up. When you have a pitcher who won't ever be a 1 or 2, be careful with extensions. They should not get too expensive that the Twins can't afford them, so let it ride and don't unnecessarily clog your rotation.

[Tom Froemming]

 

There are multiple options coming up fairly soon for the pen, plus the return of Haley, and I'd send Gibson to the minors for depth, and hope he can find himself again.

I don't know that there's anything Gibson could work on or prove in Triple A, but you're right. Considering the rotation depth vs. bullpen strength, sending him down to continue starting seems to be the right move if he's bumped.

 

"Pitcher's" park, with fleet-footed outfielders, and young guys who can rock the baseball--  now that's a recipe for getting a quality #1 or 2 to come to the Twinks.

That's a good sell, maybe the Twins should take you along to the Winter Meetings this year It's a good point, Minnesota should be an attractive destination for pitchers looking to re-establish their value.

 

If he squeaks through a few of these upcoming starts giving up 4 runs or less over five innings he will stay in the rotation for the foreseeable future.  If he continues to get pounded he might last one or two more starts before getting demoted IMO. 

Giving up four runs over five innings isn't getting pounded? That's a 7.20 ERA. Either way, I think you're right in that he still has some leash left, and ...

 

Gibson is without a doubt the most frustrating tease we have in the rotation. He'll have these terrible outings where he can't get through 6 innings, gives up 4 runs on 7 hits and 3 walks and isn't throwing strikes...and then a week later he'll go 8 and only give up 1 run on 2 hits with 1 walk.

... I think it's very possible he teases us with a great start this afternoon against a poor Oakland lineup and buys himself a little more time in the rotation. It is very frustrating. Personally, I'm ready to move on, but it's not like I'm going to root against the guy in hopes the team dumps him. So when he pitches well it's like "great, that'll buy him another couple months of pitching like crap."

[Mr. Brooks]

Past his prime? He's 29 years old. If he squeaks through a few of these upcoming starts giving up 4 runs or less over five innings he will stay in the rotation for the foreseeable future. If he continues to get pounded he might last one or two more starts before getting demoted IMO. Just to be clear Molitor and the FO don't want to demote this guy to the pen. They have too much development time invested in him.

This FO doesn't have any development time invested in Gibson. They just got here.

[laloesch]

 

This FO doesn't have any development time invested in Gibson. They just got here.

 

My mistake, should have said organization development time.  Although does it really matter at this point?  They are all part of the same machine.

Edited May 4, 2017 by laloesch

[drjim]

 

I do remember being in the vast minority about 15 months ago when the article series about who the Twins should extend. Gibson was number one or two if memory serves. I am glad we didn't lock him up. When you have a pitcher who won't ever be a 1 or 2, be careful with extensions. They should not get too expensive that the Twins can't afford them, so let it ride and don't unnecessarily clog your rotation.

 

To be fair, the calling for a Gibson extension probably had a lot to do with the alternatives.

[hybridbear]

Has Gibson had success in the bullpen in his career? I don't remember him ever being talked about as a reliever. I'd rather see him try to have success in the bullpen as the mop up reliever than go to AAA and continue starting.

[Blackjack]

 

I think Mr. Gibson has issues beyond the physical and he might very well benefit from a change of scenery. I hate to seem Gibson go and turn out to be an excellent middle of the rotation starter elsewhere, but, sometimes, for whatever reason, that's the way things go.

I was thinking along the same lines, if the Twins let him go, there would be a lot of other teams that would give him a shot, thinking that they could correct his problems.

 

Since starting pitching is in such demand, i would demote him to Rochester and hope he figures out his problems there.

[Blake]

 

I was thinking along the same lines, if the Twins let him go, there would be a lot of other teams that would give him a shot, thinking that they could correct his problems.

 

Since starting pitching is in such demand, i would demote him to Rochester and hope he figures out his problems there.

My comment was made under the impression Gibson does not have any options left. Yes, I agree, send him to Rochester if at all possible.

[Doomtints]

Hopefully we all knew Gibson would struggle a bit this year. In spite of the narrative that he has been bad for years, he is playing worse over his past 5 starts than he ever has before. And that's all we're talking about here -- 5 starts. He deserves 8, at a minimum, to decide what to do with him.

 

We live in an instant gratification culture so this will be the daily gripe around here but, nevertheless, the Twins are doing the right thing in working with him.

[magiklair]

Hopefully we finally demote him. Enough is enough... Career ERA 4.73

[tobi0040]

RE: Gibson extension. He was controlled for Several years though. I wouldn't worry too much about the alternatives 3-4 years down the road.

 

Spotrac says he won't be a FA until 2020. I am not sure if that is accurate but it looks like he had 3-4 years of control left.

[Winston Smith]

At this point he is a failure, one mediocre year and the rest really bad. Send him to Roch and but in the pen maybe pitching one inning he can up his game to acceptable. Over 100 starts this just isn't working try something else.

[KirbyDome89]

 

Just to be clear Molitor and the FO don't want to demote this guy to the pen.  They have too much development time invested in him.

I can't think of many worse reasons to keep him in the rotation. I'm not saying you agree with that line of thinking but damn is that infuriating.  

[jmlease1]

 

Hopefully we finally demote him. Enough is enough... Career ERA 4.73

Your wish is granted. Twins sent him down after he botched another start. 

 

It's the right move. Maybe he gets things straightened out and can come back up and eat some innings, but right now he's awful and other guys are more deserving. I think this is step one towards moving on from Kyle Gibson, who I strongly suspect will NOT be offered arbitration again.

 

It's too bad, because when he's been on he's delightful to watch. But at best he's putting that together 1 out of 3 starts. In the end, Kyle Gibson may just be a AAAA pitcher.

[Linus]

The arbitration system will decide this problem. Don't know what the arb number will be but probably pushing $5 million next year. Non tender and there isn't anything he can do the rest of this year to change that.

[laloesch]

 

Your wish is granted. Twins sent him down after he botched another start. 

 

It's the right move. Maybe he gets things straightened out and can come back up and eat some innings, but right now he's awful and other guys are more deserving. I think this is step one towards moving on from Kyle Gibson, who I strongly suspect will NOT be offered arbitration again.

 

It's too bad, because when he's been on he's delightful to watch. But at best he's putting that together 1 out of 3 starts. In the end, Kyle Gibson may just be a AAAA pitcher.

 

I thought I read somewhere that he was completely fed up with the Twins staff and was no longer listening to the coaches.  Not sure if that's true or not, but he might want out and this is the way to do it.

[Doomtints]

 

I thought I read somewhere that he was completely fed up with the Twins staff and was no longer listening to the coaches.  Not sure if that's true or not, but he might want out and this is the way to do it.

 

You're not the first to report that. Twins felt he wasn't listening to them. That's one sure way to be sent away....

[Linus]

This is a very good article using solid info to shed light on a confusing situation. I think the Twins have handled this properly. Hopefully he can be a depth piece as they chase a wild card spot this year and then non tender him this fall.