June 3, 20179 yr Man, if he can keep this up (maybe not at this pace) but end the season above a .840 OPS, I think that almost guarantees his place in the hall of fame.Would help if he can grab a golf glove at a second position too.
June 3, 20179 yr Would help if he can grab a golf glove at a second position too.Yeah, golf glove. That's obviously what I meant.
June 3, 20179 yr He definitely should win the gold glove at first base. "All star gold glove first baseman with a .300 average" /byto
June 3, 20179 yr I'm surprised, but glad to be. I hope to be flabbergasted by season's end. My dad just had that flabbergastric bypass surgery, lost 30 pounds already. Edited June 3, 20179 yr by LaBombo
June 3, 20179 yr Great production from Mauer in recent weeks. It's great to see and I hope he keeps it up. This kind of Mauer really helps the lineup. I'm surprised, but glad to be. I hope to be flabbergasted by season's end.I'm holding out for gobsmacked.
June 3, 20179 yr I saw that diving play Mauer made last night. Unbelievable.Pff. Ozzie Smith would make plays like that in his sleep.
June 3, 20179 yr Joe had a .403 BABIP in May which is unsustainable. Of course his .243 in April was as well. Without doing the actual math and assuming he continues to strike the ball as he has so far this season he should end up somewhere between .750 and .800 OPS for season.
June 6, 20179 yr Author Joe had a .403 BABIP in May which is unsustainable. Of course his .243 in April was as well. Without doing the actual math and assuming he continues to strike the ball as he has so far this season he should end up somewhere between .750 and .800 OPS for season. I'd definitely take the over on this. On the year, he has a .775 OPS with a .315 BABIP.Career his BABIP is .340. That makes sense with his line-drive heavy profile. Currently, he's right on track with his career line drives. But his ground ball% is better: 42.7% v 50.6% career. He's hitting a lot more fly balls. Fly balls have a slightly lower BABIP than ground balls, (.239 v. .207) but they more than make up for it with the power potential (.020 ISO v. .378 ISO). So, with this batted ball profile, we'd expect to see his BABIP a little lower than career, but his slugging% higher than his career. This is particularly true because he's hitting the ball as hard or harder than ever. His hard hit% is at 36.6% v 33.4% for his career. That is pre-concussion Mauer power: Year Hard hit% OPS2007 36.9% 8082009 37.6% 10312010 41.7% 8712012 37.1% 862 2013 37.4% 880 2017 36.6% 775 So I bet he ends up over 800 OPS, absent an injury.
June 6, 20179 yr Mauer has been playing well since this was originally posted. April stats are often misleading. Turns out he is on pace for his best year since 2013 and not the worst year of his career. Patience is a virtue in baseball. The OPs May prediction for Mauer was actually conservative. Edited June 6, 20179 yr by Doomtints
June 6, 20179 yr I'd definitely take the over on this. On the year, he has a .775 OPS with a .315 BABIP.Career his BABIP is .340. That makes sense with his line-drive heavy profile. Currently, he's right on track with his career line drives. But his ground ball% is better: 42.7% v 50.6% career. He's hitting a lot more fly balls. Fly balls have a slightly lower BABIP than ground balls, (.239 v. .207) but they more than make up for it with the power potential (.020 ISO v. .378 ISO). So, with this batted ball profile, we'd expect to see his BABIP a little lower than career, but his slugging% higher than his career. This is particularly true because he's hitting the ball as hard or harder than ever. His hard hit% is at 36.6% v 33.4% for his career. That is pre-concussion Mauer power: Year Hard hit% OPS2007 36.9% 8082009 37.6% 10312010 41.7% 8712012 37.1% 862 2013 37.4% 880 2017 36.6% 775 So I bet he ends up over 800 OPS, absent an injury.Much of Mauer's career babip came before teams figured out how to shift him. Whatever his babip is since then needs to be his baseline, not his career babip. Maybe they are the same number, I haven't looked, but I doubt they are.
June 6, 20179 yr Much of Mauer's career babip came before teams figured out how to shift him.Whatever his babip is since then needs to be his baseline, not his career babip.Maybe they are the same number, I haven't looked, but I doubt they are. True. Statcast hurt Mauer a lot. People thought he was spraying the ball all over the field, but it turns out he wasn't. His grounders tend to go one way and his fly balls go the other. Before statcast, no one made that connection, they just thought he could hit it anywhere.
June 6, 20179 yr Author Much of Mauer's career babip came before teams figured out how to shift him.Whatever his babip is since then needs to be his baseline, not his career babip.Maybe they are the same number, I haven't looked, but I doubt they are. When would you say they figured out how to shift him? We could check the numbers. But I would guess his BABIP is more correlated with his batted ball profile (line drives) and hard hit% than the shift. Here's his BABIP by year: year BABIP2005 3222006 3642007 3192008 3422009 3732010 3482011 3192012 3642013 3832014 3422015 3092016 301
June 6, 20179 yr When would you say they figured out how to shift him? We could check the numbers. But I would guess his BABIP is more correlated with his batted ball profile (line drives) and hard hit% than the shift. Here's his BABIP by year: year BABIP2005 3222006 3642007 3192008 3422009 3732010 3482011 3192012 3642013 3832014 3422015 3092016 301 Yeah, I agree. It FEELS like Mauer was hurt by shifting, but I'm not convinced it has had more than a pretty small impact. I would agree that the larger impact in BABIP-regressions was his batted ball profile, as Mike suggests.
June 6, 20179 yr Yeah, I agree. It FEELS like Mauer was hurt by shifting, but I'm not convinced it has had more than a pretty small impact. I would agree that the larger impact in BABIP-regressions was his batted ball profile, as Mike suggests. Aren't those the same thing? If Mauer profiles a certain way, the defense will shift.......
June 6, 20179 yr Aren't those the same thing? If Mauer profiles a certain way, the defense will shift....... I meant the profile changes as more in hard-hit versus soft-hit and putting more balls in the air.
June 6, 20179 yr I'd definitely take the over on this. On the year, he has a .775 OPS with a .315 BABIP.Career his BABIP is .340. That makes sense with his line-drive heavy profile. Currently, he's right on track with his career line drives. But his ground ball% is better: 42.7% v 50.6% career. He's hitting a lot more fly balls. Fly balls have a slightly lower BABIP than ground balls, (.239 v. .207) but they more than make up for it with the power potential (.020 ISO v. .378 ISO). So, with this batted ball profile, we'd expect to see his BABIP a little lower than career, but his slugging% higher than his career. This is particularly true because he's hitting the ball as hard or harder than ever. His hard hit% is at 36.6% v 33.4% for his career. That is pre-concussion Mauer power: Year Hard hit% OPS2007 36.9% 8082009 37.6% 10312010 41.7% 8712012 37.1% 862 2013 37.4% 880 2017 36.6% 775 So I bet he ends up over 800 OPS, absent an injury.I'm on a phone and won't elaborate greatly but his statcast numbers of hard hit balls are very similar to last years numbers. That suggests his BABIP will be similar barring luck.
June 6, 20179 yr Author I'm on a phone and won't elaborate greatly but his statcast numbers of hard hit balls are very similar to last years numbers. That suggests his BABIP will be similar barring luck. His average exit velocity may be similar to last year, but there are other key differences. He's hitting far fewer ground balls (42.7% v 51.9%)He's hitting opposite field again. Last year his pull% was 30.8% and his oppo% was 35.2%. This year it's 22.2% and 42.5% respectively.His average exit velocity might be the same, but that's an average. Last year he hit more soft and more medium contact but less hard contact. I can see how that would about average out, but the results are very different. year soft% med% hard%2016 13.4% 55.3% 31.3%2017 11.8% 51.6% 36.6% So he's traded some weak and medium contact for harder contact, and he's hitting opposite field more than he's ever done in his career.
June 6, 20179 yr Yeah, I agree. It FEELS like Mauer was hurt by shifting, but I'm not convinced it has had more than a pretty small impact. I would agree that the larger impact in BABIP-regressions was his batted ball profile, as Mike suggests.Yep. The more I've dug into Mauer's batting numbers, the more I shake my head in disbelief that anyone refutes his rapid decline was due to anything but the concussion. Sure, the guy lost .030 BABIP. But explain how he lost .050 batting average. Hint: the answer is in his batted ball profile. He stopped hitting the ball hard. It's almost as if his hand-eye coordination lost just a tick of its accuracy for some completely unknown reason. Anyone have any ideas how that could have come about?
June 7, 20179 yr Joe Mauer's stats - as of 6/6/17: G: 472B: 113B: 0HR: 4RBI: 23SB: 0AVG: .287OBP: .359SLG: .416OPS: .774 Lots of dialogue about a resurgence. He has been a little bit better this year than last year. Not much more.
June 7, 20179 yr That at bat was a shift induced out. If the left fielder isn't swung way over, that's a no play foul ball and Joe is still alive. Mauer has shown some ability to pull the ball in the air. And when he does he usually has success. But as long as he hits predictably, outfielders will be in position to make outs on balls no matter how hard he hits them.
June 7, 20179 yr It's nice to see Mauer is on a good hitting streak but I'll wait a few months to say he's back to form or reports of his decline were silly and out of line. We've seen him get hot for stretches before. I hope he carries it through the year but I'll reserve judgement until it's proven out over more than a month or two.
June 8, 20179 yr His average exit velocity may be similar to last year, but there are other key differences. He's hitting far fewer ground balls (42.7% v 51.9%)He's hitting opposite field again. Last year his pull% was 30.8% and his oppo% was 35.2%. This year it's 22.2% and 42.5% respectively.His average exit velocity might be the same, but that's an average. Last year he hit more soft and more medium contact but less hard contact. I can see how that would about average out, but the results are very different. year soft% med% hard%2016 13.4% 55.3% 31.3%2017 11.8% 51.6% 36.6% So he's traded some weak and medium contact for harder contact, and he's hitting opposite field more than he's ever done in his career.The statcast data does not back up you're hard hit ball assertions. The data shows that the percentage of balls that he is barreling and the percentage of balls hit >95 mph, not the average but those hard hit balls that actually improve your slugging and bat avg, are almost identical to last seasons numbers.
June 8, 20179 yr The statcast data does not back up you're hard hit ball assertions. The data shows that the percentage of balls that he is barreling and the percentage of balls hit >95 mph, not the average but those hard hit balls that actually improve your slugging and bat avg, are almost identical to last seasons numbers.I should add that while intuitively it makes sense we don't have a good handle yet on the correlation between barrels, hard hit balls and BABIP. I'm assuming that last seasons .300ish BABIP is an accurate representation given his batted ball profile but it could be an either lucky or un lucky. We just don't really know yet.
June 8, 20179 yr Yesterday, I was watching the KC game and they brought up a statistic that showed Mauer tied for 2nd in game winning RBI for the AL.
June 8, 20179 yr Do you think, perhaps, that Joe was sitting around last winter and decided he was going to have toconscientiously hit the ball harder. Couldn't hurt.
October 6, 20179 yr Author Joe had a .403 BABIP in May which is unsustainable. Of course his .243 in April was as well. Without doing the actual math and assuming he continues to strike the ball as he has so far this season he should end up somewhere between .750 and .800 OPS for season. I'd definitely take the over on this. On the year, he has a .775 OPS with a .315 BABIP.Career his BABIP is .340. That makes sense with his line-drive heavy profile. Currently, he's right on track with his career line drives. But his ground ball% is better: 42.7% v 50.6% career. He's hitting a lot more fly balls. Fly balls have a slightly lower BABIP than ground balls, (.239 v. .207) but they more than make up for it with the power potential (.020 ISO v. .378 ISO). So, with this batted ball profile, we'd expect to see his BABIP a little lower than career, but his slugging% higher than his career. This is particularly true because he's hitting the ball as hard or harder than ever. His hard hit% is at 36.6% v 33.4% for his career. That is pre-concussion Mauer power: Year Hard hit% OPS2007 36.9% 8082009 37.6% 10312010 41.7% 8712012 37.1% 862 2013 37.4% 880 2017 36.6% 775 So I bet he ends up over 800 OPS, absent an injury. Well....u/Oxtung guessed an OPS between 750 and 800 and I took the over. 801 OPS for the win!
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