Article: Miguel Sano Taking Step Into Stardom

[Nick Nelson]

I've long been a believer in Miguel Sano's transcendent talent. His prodigious major-league debut at age 22 only reinforced that belief, to the point where I felt emboldened to predict the Dominican slugger would win AL MVP in his second season with the Twins.

 

I was wrong. Very wrong. But... maybe just a little early on the call?There were many astonishing aspects of Sano's rookie campaign in 2015, which included a .916 OPS and 18 homers in just 80 games. Of course, those numbers were stellar, but there were deeper indicators of an elite offensive player in the making.

 

Specifically, I'm talking about his uncommonly advanced approach at the plate.

 

As an MLB newbie, Sano worked the count full in a higher fraction of his plate appearances than Joey Votto or Mike Trout. And once he got there he capitalized, posting a 1.281 OPS against 3-2 offerings. That's the sign of a dominating hitter, evidenced by the fact that Votto and Trout were the qualified leaders in their respective leagues.

 

In the same season where Byron Buxton was reminding us how difficult and demoralizing the task of facing MLB pitching can be, even for the most gifted of players, Sano was making it look easy. He had the designs of a 40-homer slugger and premier run producer. Maybe, I thought, as soon as his first full season.

 

It wasn't meant to be. A number of different factors contributed to a trying sophomore campaign. I don't know how to individually weigh the various things that played him against him – starting the year in the outfield, dealing with adjustments from opposing pitchers, battling injuries, maybe not putting in the necessary work – but it all likely played a part. The result was a disappointing (though hardly terrible) season in which Sano nearly set an all-time record for strikeout rate.

 

Perturbingly, his line on full counts dropped from .240/.581/.700 to .123/.373/.288.

 

The first month of 2017 represented a resounding return to form for Sano. In 23 games, he batted .316/.443/.684 with seven homers and 25 RBI. His strikeout rate is down a tad (all he needs, really) while his walk rate is higher than Bryce Harper's or Paul Goldschmidt's. Sano is once again controlling the zone at a remarkable level. And when he's hitting the ball, he is hitting it HARD.

 

According to MLB's StatCast data, Sano leads all of baseball in average exit velocity, and is the only player in triple digits. He is smashing everything, and that was evident enough on Friday night. In a game where Royals starter Ian Kennedy was stingy with the hits, Miggy delivered a big one in the fourth, putting a beautiful swing on an outside fastball and sending it over the fence in right.

 

Later, he came through a with a game-breaking drive in the eighth with the bases loaded, facing another hot pitcher (Joakim Soria hadn't allowed an extra-base hit all year) and taking him off the top of the wall in left. Sano narrowly missed a grand slam but his two-run double knotted the score and set up another one for Mauer that proved decisive.

 

Then on Sunday, he added another mammoth homer and drove in five, carrying the Twins offense in a 7-5 victory that pushed the team's final April record above .500. A year ago they were 10 games under at this time.

 

Hey, it's only one month. But there's nothing superficial about Sano's immense success thus far. Every underlying element suggests that his emergence as one of baseball's best hitters is completely legitimate. He is swinging less at pitches outside of the zone, and more in the zone. He is blasting rockets to all fields. He is rising to the occasion in big spots.

 

Oh, and on top of it all, he's looking pretty damn decent defensively over at third base.

 

MVP? If he keeps up at this rate, he'll easily be in the conversation. But either way, Sano is establishing himself as a star and there is a sense that he's only getting started.

 

Giddy up.

 

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[Monkeypaws]

I'd be happy just to have an Al-Star caliber player on the Twins again.

[Deduno Abides]

In that picture, he looks like Giant Man leaning over to shake hands with Tony Stark.

[USAFChief]

They gotta find someone else to hit behind him, but yeah...pretty nice start to 2017.

[jimbo92107]

Miguel Sano's incredible average exit velocity is a testament to not just the mammoth power of his swing, but also the precision of that beautiful beast. He's not just making hard contact; he's putting the sweet spot of the bat onto the ball with great consistency. 

 

The result is still only part of the story. The other part is all the pitches Sano does NOT swing at. All those low, outside curves, balls in the dirt, high and in... Sano is no longer swinging at junk. This leaves a pitcher in a terrible predicament if he's serious about pitching to Sano. In fact, I'm seeing more and more semi-intentional walks when Sano lays off the first couple junk pitches. At 2 balls and no strikes, very few pitchers want to give this man something in the strike zone. 

 

Miguel Sano makes a lot of pitchers act like Mister Nibbles. It's understandable. 

[jimbo92107]

 

They gotta find someone else to hit behind him, but yeah...pretty nice start to 2017.

USAFChief, on 30 Apr 2017 - 8:07 PM, said:
They gotta find someone else to hit behind him, but yeah...pretty nice start to 2017.
Agreed. Two candidates are bashing balls in Rochester right now. Either of Palka or Park would be fine with me, whichever is hot. I suppose Palka might have a slight edge because of positional flexibility, and Palka is a lefty power bat. The Twins would dearly like Vargas to fill that roll, but he seems to have settled into more of a line drive hitter than a tater smasher. I'm afraid the Twins have converted Vargas into a gap hitter, rather than Big Pappy 2.0. Sigh.

 

Oh, I just noticed a couple other factors in Palka's favor. He's on the 40, and Park is on the DL.

[Old Twins Cap]

Great to see Sano raking early and showing considerable skill.

 

But, to maintain that, the Twins will need protection for him, or the League will simply walk Sano.  Or HBP when he irritates someone.

 

Mauer?   Uh, no.  That's not protection.

 

Kepler?  Well, maybe, but he's batting up in the order.

 

Castro?  No.  Sorry to say it.

 

Polanco?  Could be, he does hit from both sides, but, not exactly a long ball threat.  As opposing manager, I would much rather pitch to Polanco.

 

Rosario, Buxton and Dozier not good candidates for a wealth of reasons, mainly line-up construction.

 

So, that leaves Grossman and Vargas, the two DHs.  Not going to scare many pitchers out of walking Sano.

 

No sure answer at this point, but without protection for Sano, no viable path for him to dominate, nor for the Twins to crack .500, IMHO.

 

Make someone besides Sano beat you, that's going to be the approach.

 

 

 

 

[Oldgoat_MN]

 

...

So, that leaves Grossman and Vargas, the two DHs.  Not going to scare many pitchers out of walking Sano.

...

I think you pretty much nailed it. I do not, however, think this is so bad. Vargas certainly has the power to make a team pay for walking Sano and Grossman still sports an unusually high OBP, making him at least an annoying presence for the opposition.

Even Mike Trout gets pitched to. Hopefully Vargas can show us he belongs here.

 

And I still have high hopes for Park.

[HitInAPinch]

When pairing up a lineup of #4 and #5 hitters, think:  Johnny Bench followed by Tony Perez.   Max Kepler would be a perfect guy.  I think Park could be the same, given a chance.

[Ncgo4]

What's truly scary is the prospect of Sano getting highly motivated by his success. He made some progress this offseason, but if he could get into elite shape he has the potential to put up Bobby Bonds like numbers. One fact overlooked is that Buxton has shown the potential to be the man to protect Sano. Admittedly, the "shows" have been for very short periods. There is some real excitement potential with this team...especially now that we have through 1 month one of the best groups of starting pitchers in baseball...never mind.

[ashbury]

What's truly scary is the prospect of Sano getting highly motivated by his success. He made some progress this offseason, but if he could get into elite shape he has the potential to put up Bobby Bonds like numbers.

Why stop there? He could turn out as good as Bobby's son.

[tarheeltwinsfan]

Miguel needs a good nickname. What are some suggestions? I suggest some variation referring to "Exit Velocity".. Maybe "Duck" or a variation of the Chattanooga team name: "Look Out".

[Han Joelo]

Listening on the radio, it seems at least a couple of his homers have been the kind where, despite the exit velocity, it is hard for Provus to tell if it will go out--but it just keeps carrying.  Maybe I've got that wrong, but the point is, if there is one, is that Sano can use his mind to help propel the ball further if it needs a little more distance.  Or maybe, his muscles are especially strong.

[ashbury]

Listening on the radio, it seems at least a couple of his homers have been the kind where, despite the exit velocity, it is hard for Provus to tell if it will go out--but it just keeps carrying.  Maybe I've got that wrong, but the point is, if there is one, is that Sano can use his mind to help propel the ball further if it needs a little more distance.  Or maybe, his muscles are especially strong.

SABR has done study after study debunking the notion by old-time scouts and others that certain batters have the innate ability to will the ball out of the park after it leaves the bat. Yogi Berra started that unfortunate idea when he said, "How can you think and hit at the same time? You have to start the thinking part after you hit it." It just ain't true, sorry. It's the muscles.

[Vanimal46]

 

Miguel needs a good nickname. What are some suggestions? I suggest some variation referring to "Exit Velocity".. Maybe "Duck" or a variation of the Chattanooga team name: "Look Out".

 

Man-Tree. Since he's a cross between a man and a tree. 

[Dantes929]

 

 
They gotta find someone else to hit behind him, but yeah...pretty nice start to 2017.
Agreed. Two candidates are bashing balls in Rochester right now. Either of Palka or Park would be fine with me, whichever is hot. I suppose Palka might have a slight edge because of positional flexibility, and Palka is a lefty power bat. The Twins would dearly like Vargas to fill that roll, but he seems to have settled into more of a line drive hitter than a tater smasher. I'm afraid the Twins have converted Vargas into a gap hitter, rather than Big Pappy 2.0. Sigh.

 

How have the Twins turned Vargas into a line drive hitter?   If there is one thing I have seen over the years it is that guys that try to pull the ball generally fail.   Has Sano turned into a line drive hitter because he goes with the pitch and uses all fields?  Big Pappy's spray charts in Boston look a lot like those in MN.   Personally I think he might owe the Twins for his success rather than other wise.  He has a natural pull swing but he stepped toward the pitcher rather than toward right field.  Big Pappy is a HOFer.   Maybe the reason Vargas is not better than Ortiz has nothing to do with the Twins.

[Pitz]

I have enjoyed reading the quotes from Sano about his at bats recently. They show that he is continuing to learn and grow as a hitter - and committed to making adjustments to be successful. 

 

From Bollinger's report :

"My first at-bat, I didn't see the ball very good so I put on my sunglasses," Sano said. "I watched video on the computer and his last pitch was a fastball away. In my second at-bat, I knew he'd try to go with the fastball inside and I was able to pull the ball."

 

"The other night, he threw me a lot of sliders and changeup," Sano said of Moylan. "Today, I let the ball come to me and tried to hit to right field. It was a 2-0 fastball away."

 

"I've been working really hard every day," Sano said. "I know I need to improve every day. I've been working hard and putting it into the game."

 

From Berardino:

On the single against Moylan: “The other night when I faced him, he threw me a lot of sliders, a lot of changeups,” Sano said. “He didn’t throw me any strikes, but I don’t want to say anything about the umpire’s calls. Today I worked the count in that situation. I let the ball come to me and hit it to right field.”

[Pitz]

Here's another thing I enjoyed reading:

 

Soft Hit % - 2.1% (that is ridiculous)

Med Hit % - 42.6%

Hard Hit % - 55.3%

 

I'm thinking this probably has something to do with why he is the Exit Velocity leader.

 

 

[markos]

It will be interesting to see how long he is able to maintain his .450 BABIP.

[Respy]

 

Miguel needs a good nickname. What are some suggestions? I suggest some variation referring to "Exit Velocity".. Maybe "Duck" or a variation of the Chattanooga team name: "Look Out".

 

Apparently lots of folks have been wanting to call him 'Miggy.'  How would we feel about this, considering that the original Miggy is over in a Tiger uniform?

[Otto von Ballpark]

 

It will be interesting to see how long he is able to maintain his .450 BABIP.

If he's got an 18.6% BB rate and a .367 ISO, he doesn't need BABIP to be dominant.

 

http://www.fangraphs.com/leaders.aspx?pos=all&stats=bat&lg=all&qual=y&type=8&season=2017&month=0&season1=2006&ind=1&team=0&rost=0&age=0&filter=49868&players=0&sort=18,d

[Otto von Ballpark]

 

Miguel needs a good nickname. What are some suggestions? I suggest some variation referring to "Exit Velocity".. Maybe "Duck" or a variation of the Chattanooga team name: "Look Out".

 

 

Apparently lots of folks have been wanting to call him 'Miggy.'  How would we feel about this, considering that the original Miggy is over in a Tiger uniform?

 

FYI, Sano already had the nickname "Bocaton" ("big mouth" in Spanish).

[drjim]

 

If he's got an 18.6% BB rate and a .367 ISO, he doesn't need BABIP to be dominant.

 

http://www.fangraphs.com/leaders.aspx?pos=all&stats=bat&lg=all&qual=y&type=8&season=2017&month=0&season1=2006&ind=1&team=0&rost=0&age=0&filter=49868&players=0&sort=18,d

 

I'm not going to complain too much, but the 33% K rate could use some improvement. If that bumps down, even with an inevitable babip drop he might be able to maintain a similar level of OPS and wRC+.

 

I do wonder if his higher K% does lead to a better babip and ISO. Wouldn't fiddle with the approach *too* much.

[Taildragger8791]

 

It will be interesting to see how long he is able to maintain his .450 BABIP.

 

The average may come down but the power will remain. And when you hit the ball as hard as he does consistently, the BABIP will be elevated from the norm anyways. So it shouldn't fall off the table completely.

[Respy]

 

FYI, Sano already had the nickname "Bocaton" ("big mouth" in Spanish).

 

Yes, I've seen this before.  Never actually heard anyone call him that, though.  Lately it seems that Paul Molitor has been calling him Miggy and others are catching on.

[TheLeviathan]

So....you're saying we shouldn't see any ridiculous articles about his weight then?

 

Good for Sano, people really had to look hard to find ways to ding this kid.  He's always struck me as being a far more determined player than he's given credit for.  And I freaking love his personality - punish the baseball and have fun!

[DaveW]

 

 

Good for Sano, people really had to look hard to find ways to ding this kid.  

Yeah, I never got it. It's the whole "we can't have nice things in Minnesota" type approach.

I do wonder if their is a little racial and language bias in some of the reporting as well, since Sano doesn't fit the Parise, Mauer, Molitor "one of us, one of us" thing that Minnesotan's inexplicably love.

Mauer as a youngster- spent his off-season in cabin with brothers/friends. "That's good"

 

Sano as a youngster- spent his off-season going back to the DR to be with Friends and Family  "IMMATURITY! IMMATURITY!"

Could you imagine the commentary that Sano would be getting these days if he was dating Ms. America? "Distraction! Distraction!"

Edited May 1, 2017 by DaveW

[Oldgoat_MN]

 

It will be interesting to see how long he is able to maintain his .450 BABIP.

Of 184 'qualified' batters in MLB this year Sano has the highest BABIP.

Probably won't stay that way, but I still expect good things from him.

[Teflon]

And he's under team control for four more years - unless we try to sign him longer term and avoid his arbitration years.

[gocgo]

 

Miguel needs a good nickname. What are some suggestions? I suggest some variation referring to "Exit Velocity".. Maybe "Duck" or a variation of the Chattanooga team name: "Look Out".

Smoke it Sano....ok, maybe not.