Article: Buxton Not Alone In Early-Season Struggles

[Brock Beauchamp]

 

It seems he also is able to recognize balls and strikes doing this as well since he has had 3 walks in this last 8 plate appearances.

One of the things I wanted to see Buxton do was take more pitches in hopes that repetition of seeing in-game pitches will help his apparent identification problem.

 

Which he seems to be doing, which is good. His pitchers per plate appearances has nudged over 4 whereas, IIRC, it was around 3.8 a few weeks ago.

 

He has worked a bunch more three ball counts into his recent plate appearances, which is a good thing. I don't worry about Buxton ever becoming Aaron Hicks with passivity so erring on the side of patience is probably a good strategy at this point, even if he gets rung up looking on occasion.

[Dantes929]

 

Mauer is a fine defender at first but catching the ball isn't very hard. There's an expected level of competency at the MLB level and first basemen catching the ball isn't really note-worthy. AFAIK, scooping and catching the ball isn't a focus of first base defense in advanced metrics for that reason: everybody does it well enough to not make it worth much in defensive value.

 

Again, not knocking Joe, he's a good defender at first... but most of that value seems to come from his range and baseball smarts.

 

Whereas Byron Buxton is doing things at an up-the-middle position that I'm not sure anyone else in baseball can even do physically, excepting possibly Billy Hamilton.

I get your point but disagree in the application.   Even if they tracked scooped balls it would be difficult to qualify them.   Short hops are easy and big hops are easy and there is probably also an expectation of how many scoops are expected but if they are not tracked at all then I consider it a flaw.    I have only watched Twins games and have seen a couple times the Twins have gotten on because of balls thrown in the dirt that I did not consider all that difficult and I have seen Mauer make several plays that I thought were exceptional and athletic.    Then of course there was the play that Mauer made yesterday just because of his height and reach that are not considered so much when tracking range.    Our big concern was defensive left side and I believe with an average 1st baseman over there it would loom larger than it does now.   I will say again that the difference between average and exceptional at first base exists but is the minimal that you suggest when receiving throws from guys like Hardy and Crede.    It is more significant than is given credit for when it is Sano and Polanco.    Our views of their defense would be quite a bit different if Mauer hadn't handled just a couple of each of their throws the way he has.  Just my opinion.

[Brock Beauchamp]

I can see your point in the case of Polanco but do we have any concerns about Sano's arm? The guy has a rocket and it's pretty accurate to boot.

 

Sano has plenty of concerns over at the hot corner but his arm has never been one of them, in my opinion. His lateral movement and range, sure, but not his arm.

[Mike Sixel]

 

I can see your point in the case of Polanco but do we have any concerns about Sano's arm? The guy has a rocket and it's pretty accurate to boot.

 

Sano has plenty of concerns over at the hot corner but his arm has never been one of them, in my opinion. His lateral movement and range, sure, but not his arm.

 

didn't he miss a few months with a shoulder injury? Not that I'm worried, but some might be.

[Mike Sixel]

As for Buxton, this last few days has been a nice improvement. Just 2-3 more months to go to know if anything has clicked or not!

[Brock Beauchamp]

 

didn't he miss a few months with a shoulder injury? Not that I'm worried, but some might be.

Yeah, maybe there are injury concerns there given the TJ surgery and whatnot but if his arm is healthy, I personally do not have concerns about his arm strength or accuracy.

[AlwaysinModeration]

If you think people have been unkind to Buxton on this thread (and other threads) due to his slow start...for what it's worth, my nine-year old watched the game recap with me this morning, and when they showed a Buxton single, he said "Whoa, Buxton can hit?!?"

[Dantes929]

 

I can see your point in the case of Polanco but do we have any concerns about Sano's arm? The guy has a rocket and it's pretty accurate to boot.

 

Sano has plenty of concerns over at the hot corner but his arm has never been one of them, in my opinion. His lateral movement and range, sure, but not his arm.

You are right of course.  I have been very happy with Sano's defense over there.   His arm has been quite accurate on the routine plays.   Its some of his best and most athletic plays where the throws have been a little off but with a lot of heat.    I recall hearing Bremer say a couple times "great play by Sano and even better play by Mauer"   Bremer hyperbole of course since those plays were definitely more credit to Sano but still could have been cancelled perhaps by lesser 1st basemen.      I have been pretty happy with Polanco also in making routine and some tough plays.      Back in the day Gagne made great athletic plays but the throws on a lot of those plays needed Hrbek for completion.    Just like a great defensive outfield can make a pitcher's stats look good a great 1st baseman can be pretty valuable in keeping a shortstop's stats good.  SSS and I have only seen about a third of the games but the infield defense has looked better than anticipated, and the catching and outfield defense has lived up to expectations.

[Mike Sixel]

Interesting article on Thames on FG today (like most days so far this year ).

 

One of the key things in his growth is/was day to day playing time in Korea, instead of inconsistent playing time. That was addressed earlier by FG about Buxton, that the Twins need to just give him time one way or the other (which I think was referenced in the thread). I'm just pointing this out as one more data point of....let him play for 3 months.

[Riverbrian]

Buxton has had two straight games of good AB's. He looks like a guy with a plan up there all of sudden.

 

I think he has been working on something and I hope it is starting to work. 

 

KEEP IT UP

[AlwaysinModeration]

Small sample size alert: Buxton has reached base 8 times in the past three games, and 10 of his last 18 PAs going back 5 games.

 

I really want to see him legging out some triples, though.

[John Kelsey]

Excellent series for him, keep playing him every day. 

[drjim]

Buxton now in positive wRC+ territory!

[Loosey]

 

Interesting article on Thames on FG today (like most days so far this year ).

 

One of the key things in his growth is/was day to day playing time in Korea, instead of inconsistent playing time. That was addressed earlier by FG about Buxton, that the Twins need to just give him time one way or the other (which I think was referenced in the thread). I'm just pointing this out as one more data point of....let him play for 3 months.

I don't know if I read it or saw it on TV somewhere but the other thing on Thames was Korean pitchers throws lots of junk and off-speed stuff.  The basis of the story was by seeing a few years of break balls he is now able to easily recognize those types of pitches and can just sit on fastballs now.  So basically his pitch recognition caught up to his physical abilities.  

 

The story went on to ask the question of should players who struggle for consistency in MLB go to Korea to gain an edge.  - I personally say Thames is a great hitter who needed time to develop and Korea may have helped but I don't think it is going to turn every struggling hitter into good hitters. But I do see the logic behind how it helped Thames.

[Brock Beauchamp]

Over the last five games:

 

20 PAs

4 hits

7 BB

2 SO

 

It appears Byron is making adjustments.

[Mike Sixel]

 

Over the last five games:

 

20 PAs

4 hits

7 BB

2 SO

 

It appears Byron is making adjustments.

 

since I can't see the games....I'm curious. Is this like when Hicks just refused to swing, and he either walked or hit a single? Or, is he legit just not getting strikes thrown to him? I don't understand not throwing him enough strikes, frankly....

[Brock Beauchamp]

 

since I can't see the games....I'm curious. Is this like when Hicks just refused to swing, and he either walked or hit a single? Or, is he legit just not getting strikes thrown to him? I don't understand not throwing him enough strikes, frankly....

He's still swinging and missing a fair amount but he's laying off bad pitches that he was swinging at early in the season.

 

From what I've seen, he's still struggling with the fastball inside but he's no longer flailing at pitches all over the place (up, down, inside, outside). It's possible the book on Buxton read "don't throw him strikes, he'll swing anyway". That book will need to be revised soon if he keeps it up.

 

I've always believed this will be a baby step process. Byron needs to make several adjustments and it appears he has begun to make at least one of the necessary changes to his approach.

[Brock Beauchamp]

How good is Buxton defensively?

 

Right now, he's on pace for a 1.5 fWAR season.

 

Heh.

[ashbury]

Over the last five games:

 

20 PAs

4 hits

7 BB

2 SO

 

It appears Byron is making adjustments.

That's the pattern after you're getting pwned for a while. We saw it with Hicks his rookie year. The pitchers immediately stop throwing strikes, because you're getting yourself out. You correct that part, and you get a boatload of walks for a while. Then they start throwing strikes again, and the interesting part begins...

[Mike Sixel]

 

That's the pattern after you're getting pwned for a while. We saw it with Hicks his rookie year. The pitchers immediately stop throwing strikes, because you're getting yourself out. You correct that part, and you get a boatload of walks for a while. Then they start throwing strikes again, and the interesting part begins...

 

Right, that was sort of my question up thread....is Buxton just not swinging the bat right now? No one walks this much. 

[Brock Beauchamp]

 

That's the pattern after you're getting pwned for a while. We saw it with Hicks his rookie year. The pitchers immediately stop throwing strikes, because you're getting yourself out. You correct that part, and you get a boatload of walks for a while. Then they start throwing strikes again, and the interesting part begins...

Yep.

[BK432]

 

That's the pattern after you're getting pwned for a while. We saw it with Hicks his rookie year. The pitchers immediately stop throwing strikes, because you're getting yourself out. You correct that part, and you get a boatload of walks for a while. Then they start throwing strikes again, and the interesting part begins...

 

Exactly. With MLB pitchers, you first need to give them a reason not to simply throw you fastballs. Once you do that, you need to give them a reason to throw you strikes. Buxton hasn't yet done that but he's getting close. Love the recent approach change. It seems like it's starting to click for him.

 

As Ashbury said, once they see the need to throw you strikes, that's when we can start to see this develop.

[gheggs42]

 

Right, that was sort of my question up thread....is Buxton just not swinging the bat right now? No one walks this much. 

Mike, have you not been watching the games? Serious question, I know you live in the NW but I was just wondering.

 

They have not been throwing Buck a whole lot of strikes but I will say that he is laying off A LOT more junk than he was the first few weeks. Especially the soft/breaking stuff down and away. 

[Mike Sixel]

 

Mike, have you not been watching the games? Serious question, I know you live in the NW but I was just wondering.

 

They have not been throwing Buck a whole lot of strikes but I will say that he is laying off A LOT more junk than he was the first few weeks. Especially the soft/breaking stuff down and away. 

 

No, as I said above, I don't watch the games, hence why I asked the question above. And, yes, you and Brock said the same thing. He's doing a better job of not swinging when he shouldn't. Which, btw, is great!

[big dog]

 

No, as I said above, I don't watch the games, hence why I asked the question above. And, yes, you and Brock said the same thing. He's doing a better job of not swinging when he shouldn't. Which, btw, is great!

He is still swinging at some of the good pitches, though.  I've noticed him foul off several pitches straight back.  It's not just standing there with the bat on his shoulder.  Much better judgement, not laying off obvious strikes but not flailing away.  I like what I've been seeing.

[Brock Beauchamp]

 

He is still swinging at some of the good pitches, though.  I've noticed him foul off several pitches straight back.  It's not just standing there with the bat on his shoulder.  Much better judgement, not laying off obvious strikes but not flailing away.  I like what I've been seeing.

Yeah, he's not going completely passive, a la Hicks. He's letting a few good pitches go by and making contact with more pitches in the zone.

 

But it's still concerning that he's fouling off a lot of good pitches instead of putting them into play and he's still flat-out missing many pitches in the zone, particularly inside.

 

But, adjustments.

[gheggs42]

 

Yeah, he's not going completely passive, a la Hicks. He's letting a few good pitches go by and making contact with more pitches in the zone.

 

But it's still concerning that he's fouling off a lot of good pitches instead of putting them into play and he's still flat-out missing many pitches in the zone, particularly inside.

 

But, adjustments.

I was going to say his swing looks pretty long in the zone, so those inside pitches are still giving him trouble and probably always will

[Brock Beauchamp]

 

I was going to say his swing looks pretty long in the zone, so those inside pitches are still giving him trouble and probably always will

I think it's too early to say they'll always give him trouble. The guy is only 23 years old and pretty thin. It's hard to say what he'll look like in two years, much less four or five.

[Hosken Bombo Disco]

 

That's the pattern after you're getting pwned for a while. We saw it with Hicks his rookie year. The pitchers immediately stop throwing strikes, because you're getting yourself out. You correct that part, and you get a boatload of walks for a while. Then they start throwing strikes again, and the interesting part begins...

Interesting comparison between Buxton and Hicks.

 

Like Buxton's last 20 Plate Appearances, Hicks did have a roughly 20 PA stretch with 7-8 BB, depending on how you count the partial games. 

 

However it was very early in Hicksies rookie season, 2013. Hicks had 2100 professional PA to that point while Buxton had 1900 professional PA to that point, though 500 of those were in MLB (these are estimates).

 

Hicks was also hitting much worse at the time his "walk streak" started, hard as it is to believe. 

 

So then the next 20 PA for Hicks following that streak, and a similar day off:  4-16, 0 BB, 4 K.

 

Sometime after, Hicks went on a little strikeout binge, though he gets a break since he was just a rookie.  However reports were that Hicks was somewhat aloof and not engaged, unlike Buxton.

[Brock Beauchamp]

On Aprll 20th, Buxton stumbled back down to a .257 OPS.

 

A dozen days and eight games later, he's sitting at a .478 OPS.

 

HIs K percentage, once sitting near 50%, is down to 36.6%, just one percentage point above last season. Over that eight game stretch, his K rate is at a high but acceptable 26%.

 

I'm starting to get a little bit excited about the guy.