Article: Buxton Not Alone In Early-Season Struggles

[Mike Sixel]

 

Based on your post Spycake, I checked fangraphs, and according to this, Buxton has the most defensive WAR of any player in MLB.

 

He also has the best UZR and UZR/150. 

 

And it isn't sustainable to be that good, last year the TOP player had around half.....for /150. And, a lot of people here are super down on the defensive metrics, so I am assuming they think Buxton is worth less than this....

[IndianaTwin]

Excellent post. 

 

You could add Greg Bird's .104 as a 24-year-old to your list, unless 48 ABs puts him below your threshold. Plus Yan Gomes (.171) and Kurt Suzuki (.160).

 

What those three have in common with Brett Gardner (.182) from your list is that they are killing my fantasy team's average, with some help from Neil Walker (.206), Pablo Sandoval (.213) and Stephen Piscotty (.218).

 

Thank God for Freddie Freeman. 

[nytwinsfan]

 

And it isn't sustainable to be that good, last year the TOP player had around half.....for /150. And, a lot of people here are super down on the defensive metrics, so I am assuming they think Buxton is worth less than this....

It may not be sustainable at that level, but it certainly is good to see he really is an elite (top 5) CF and that's not just hype. If he could just be an average hitting CF he'd be an all star player.

[Tom Froemming]

I'm not saying a demotion is the answer, but I do wish Molitor would quit pinch hitting for Buxton late in games. He's already hitting ninth now, so he's not gonna get tons of plate appearances. I'd much rater see Byron get four PAs a night in Triple A than two on the Twins.

[Mike Sixel]

 

I'm not saying a demotion is the answer, but I do wish Molitor would quit pinch hitting for Buxton late in games. He's already hitting ninth now, so he's not gonna get tons of plate appearances. I'd much rater see Byron get four PAs a night in Triple A than two on the Twins.

 

I'm very conflicted on this. While I think they need to be playing for the future this year, if you have a chance to win a game, I think you have to PH for him. And yes, that seems contradictory, but I don't think it is. You give him a chance to play, but you are also honoring the other players in game. PH Vargas (or Kepler) for him is also about the future.

[TheLeviathan]

Plus, this is the same manager that debuted him in the third spot to start the year.  If Buxton shows he doesn't need to be pinch-hit for, I'm betting it stops in a hurry.

[Thrylos]

 

 

Finally, here is a list of the 27 players who entered Monday’s game with a sub-.200 batting average.

 

That's an incomplete list.  Likely the players who only have the qualified PAs.

 

Missing Danny Santana (.105) and Chris Gimenez (.190) for starters.  

Oh Manny Machado fell to .197 as well

 

Batting average is one thing, and really does not say the whole story, especially about Buxton.  These are the lists that matter:

 

MLB players with > 45% K%

 

Buxton

 

MLB players with > 38% K%

 

Buxton

 

MLB players with >35% K%, <100 wRC+ and > 60 PA:

 

Buxton

 

He has a known issue:  Striking out on off-speed and breaking stuff.  And until he fixes it, he will not be a major leaguer with the stick. 

The question here is whether the Twins are willing to let him figure it out at the MLB level or in the AAA level.  The answer should be based on, whether they think they can compete this season and whether they think that Buxton's glove is good enough to let him hang around.

 

Based on the fact that they wanted Mejia to figure it out in AAA, I suspect that the answer on the competing question is yes.  So the only thing that keeps Buxton in the majors is his glove.  It think that he is about another lazy throw like the one vs. the Wsux, which lost the game, or letting another ball go to the wall dive, away from his glove not being good enough to keep him in the majors.

 

Unless they decide they don't want to compete.

 

[Riverbrian]

I have been equal parts concerned and patient when it comes to Buxton. 

 

My concern will not change until I see him stopping trying to pull outside breaking pitches for 6 run blasts. 

 

My patience has been recharged after last night's game. He had some great AB's where he simply didn't chase and got on base via the walk. It was his best game so far in 2017. Keep it up Byron. 

 

By the way... it was very classy of Dozier to deflect the focus of his 3 run double to Buxton keeping the inning alive with a hard fought walk. 

 

Dozier was right... If Byron doesn't have a good AB in that two out situation... Dozier doesn't get a chance to drive all those runs in. 

 

I hope Molitor has Buxton back in the lineup tonight so he can build on his good game and I hope Byron does it again. 

 

Don't care about Power from him right now... I want him focusing on making contact and not making outs. He can do the power thing later. 

[bighat]

 

I'd say that any fan that expected a good season this year was setting themselves up for disappointment. This is a mid70s win team, that needs to see what players are good or not. Frankly, I wish they'd actually commit to rebuilding, but that does not seem to be the path.

 

I'm hoping for a mid-70s win team!  That's my dream.  I just can't handle another 59 win team, and I worry about that happening again if Bux continues to hit .107 all year.  

[Hosken Bombo Disco]

Rich Becker on this date in 1996, 3-41 with slash line .073/.174/.098

[Mike Sixel]

 

Rich Becker on this date in 1996, 3-41 with slash line .073/.174/.098

 

If Buxton has Becker's career, that will be bad. Very bad. How were Becker's previous 450 ABs?

[Taildragger8791]

 

Rich Becker on this date in 1996, 3-41 with slash line .073/.174/.098

 

With a strikeout rate half that of Buxton's, and a K/BB rate closer to 2 instead of 7.

[Hosken Bombo Disco]

 

With a strikeout rate half that of Buxton's, and a K/BB rate closer to 2 instead of 7.

Just adding Becker as another name to the mix.

 

Jetes had an 0-32 streak one April (with fewer strikeouts than Buxton has!) but you'd never be able to tell for sure which season it was by looking at his career lines. 

[Hosken Bombo Disco]

 

If Buxton has Becker's career, that will be bad. Very bad. How were Becker's previous 450 ABs?

In the season prior, Becker batted 93-392 in 438 PA, for a line of .237/.303/.296 (599 OPS)

 

Even after that horrid start, Becker finished the 1996 season at  291/372/434, with an .807 OPS, so whatever chocolate milk he started drinking was working. 

[Mike Sixel]

 

In the season prior, Becker batted 93-392 in 438 PA, for a line of .237/.303/.296 (599 OPS)

 

Even after that horrid start, Becker finished the 1996 season at  291/372/434, with an .807 OPS, so whatever chocolate milk he started drinking was working. 

 

let's hope that happens again! 

[Taildragger8791]

 

Just adding Becker as another name to the mix.

 

Jetes had an 0-32 streak one April (with fewer strikeouts than Buxton has!) but you'd never be able to tell for sure which season it was by looking at his career lines. 

 

All players have slumps that even out in the long run, we know this. That doesn't relate to what Buxton is going through because this isn't just a slump, he's been totally inept with the bat (until yesterday). Other than his September swoon he hasn't shown that he can handle major league pitching at even a basic level in what is now his 3rd year in the show.

 

It would be one thing if he was repeatedly oscillating between stretches of competence and slumps as he makes adjustments back and forth with pitchers. But this isn't that, this has been a guy that's totally lost at the plate and just trying random things to find something that works.

[Hosken Bombo Disco]

 

All players have slumps that even out in the long run, we know this. That doesn't relate to what Buxton is going through because this isn't just a slump, he's been totally inept with the bat (until yesterday). Other than his September swoon he hasn't shown that he can handle major league pitching at even a basic level in what is now his 3rd year in the show.

 

It would be one thing if he was repeatedly oscillating between stretches of competence and slumps as he makes adjustments back and forth with pitchers. But this isn't that, this has been a guy that's totally lost at the plate and just trying random things to find something that works.

Other people have said he starts slow at new levels of competition, so I think the best move is to let this play out. 

[Taildragger8791]

 

Other people have said he starts slow at new levels of competition, so I think the best move is to let this play out. 

 

I think that's pretty much the consensus. Nobody is saying he's toast or to give up on him. Just that there are legitimate concerns because of the ongoing severity of his struggles and ineptitude to this point.

 

I just don't think pointing to mini slumps that other players have had really says anything useful one way or the other about Buxton. Particularly when those slumps don't really compare all that well (different root cause, different types of players, different era, etc). It would be more helpful to find cases of talented players that had his level of strikeout and pitch recognition issues and actually overcame them.

[Hosken Bombo Disco]

I could be wrong but his pitch recognition has looked fine to me on the few occasions I have seen him bat recently. 

 

He has not been swinging at fastballs outside the zone, and he swings and misses at breaking pitches like everyone else does. Batting against Leclerc last night (44% K rate), Buxton looked like Ted Williams compared to how a couple other guys looked against him (Dozier, Sano). 

Edited April 25, 2017 by Hosken Bombo Disco

[AlwaysinModeration]

Small sample size alert:

 

Buxton slashing 367/500/454 over his last four games, spanning five games, one of which he was benched.

[jimbo92107]

Two good things happened for Buxton at the plate today in Tuesday's game at Rangers. First, Buxton took a walk against a pitcher that was having command problems. At his worst, Buxton was swinging at crap, even from a struggling pitcher. Second, Buxton got a scratch hit _to the opposite field_. Very important because Buxton has been trying waaaay too hard to pull everything...over the left field fence. This time he slapped the ball to right center. Very good sign.

 

Also, I noticed on playback that Buxton did a much better job following the ball into the bat on his single, rather than looking ahead where he hoped the ball would end up. Better use of the eyeballs. Keep it up, kid!

[drjim]

I'm starting to buy that if Buxton is looking to hit fastballs to right center and pull offspeed stuff he's got a chance to pull out of this.

 

Still an absurd amount of talent there.

[Dantes929]

 

According to Fangraphs, Buxton is worth 0.0 WAR.  Imagine having a .304 OPS and still not being worth negative WAR. That's how good his defense and baserunning have been. Players that Fangraphs says have less WAR: Eddie Rosario (-0.1), Joe Mauer (-0.3), Danny Santana (-0.2), Kyle Gibson (-0.4). 

 

I don't know all that goes into WAR especially for defense but if Buxton is getting that much credit for defense you have got to consider Mauer's defense more critically.     He is not getting throws from Joe Crede and JJ Hardy over there where all he has to do is hold up his glove chest high and they hit it.  The rockets from Sano that are ankle high or nearly hit the runner and the in between hops from Polanco have been a regular thing and Mauer gobbling them up has been just as regular.    They have been just as run saving as Buxton's extended coverage in center.    It has been Hrbekesque and in my world that is the guy that should own at least half of Mattingly's Gold Glove awards.    

[Dantes929]

 

    Personally, when I see the lineup I like seeing Buxton out there.   I want to witness the game where it all clicks and he gets in a groove.   Its a less interesting lineup when he is not in it.

Did I just witness it last night?

[Brock Beauchamp]

 

I don't know all that goes into WAR especially for defense but if Buxton is getting that much credit for defense you have got to consider Mauer's defense more critically.     He is not getting throws from Joe Crede and JJ Hardy over there where all he has to do is hold up his glove chest high and they hit it.  The rockets from Sano that are ankle high or nearly hit the runner and the in between hops from Polanco have been a regular thing and Mauer gobbling them up has been just as regular.    They have been just as run saving as Buxton's extended coverage in center.    It has been Hrbekesque and in my world that is the guy that should own at least half of Mattingly's Gold Glove awards.    

Mauer is a fine defender at first but catching the ball isn't very hard. There's an expected level of competency at the MLB level and first basemen catching the ball isn't really note-worthy. AFAIK, scooping and catching the ball isn't a focus of first base defense in advanced metrics for that reason: everybody does it well enough to not make it worth much in defensive value.

 

Again, not knocking Joe, he's a good defender at first... but most of that value seems to come from his range and baseball smarts.

 

Whereas Byron Buxton is doing things at an up-the-middle position that I'm not sure anyone else in baseball can even do physically, excepting possibly Billy Hamilton.

[Mike Sixel]

 

Mauer is a fine defender at first but catching the ball isn't very hard. There's an expected level of competency at the MLB level and first basemen catching the ball isn't really note-worthy. AFAIK, scooping and catching the ball isn't a focus of first base defense in advanced metrics for that reason: everybody does it well enough to not make it worth much in defensive value.

 

Again, not knocking Joe, he's a good defender at first... but most of that value seems to come from his range and baseball smarts.

 

Whereas Byron Buxton is doing things at an up-the-middle position that I'm not sure anyone else in baseball can even do physically, excepting possibly Billy Hamilton.

 

scoops are included, but as you point out, most MLB 1B can scoop the ball. The delta between good and great isn't as large for 1B as it is for SS or CF.

[Brock Beauchamp]

 

scoops are included, but as you point out, most MLB 1B can scoop the ball. The delta between good and great isn't as large for 1B as it is for SS or CF.

I kinda worded that poorly. I should have said "scoops and catches don't have a lot of value in advanced metrics because everyone's pretty good at it". They're important and they count in metrics but if everyone is good at something, players who are great at it won't gain much value.

 

It's the defensive equivalent of a player having a .320 batting average while wearing a Rockies uniform in 1998. When everyone else is hitting .310, the accomplishment doesn't mean a whole lot.

[diehardtwinsfan]

got to say that Buck is looking better the last few days... hoping something has clicked and he gets a nice little hot streak going.

[Brock Beauchamp]

 

got to say that Buck is looking better the last few days... hoping something has clicked and he gets a nice little hot streak going.

I'm cautiously optimistic. It seems that Buxton has started hitting more line drives, which shows good contact. I don't even care if the line drive lands in a fielder's glove at this point, as it did last night in Byron's final plate appearance.

 

His first single, while exciting to see fall to the grass, was far less impressive than his final out.

[Loosey]

 

I'm cautiously optimistic. It seems that Buxton has started hitting more line drives, which shows good contact. I don't even care if the line drive lands in a fielder's glove at this point, as it did last night in Byron's final plate appearance.

 

His first single, while exciting to see fall to the grass, was far less impressive than his final out.

His final out may have actually been his best at bat of the season even though he made an out.  

 

Roy Smalley was tweeting about Buxton's at bats last night and he noticed and explained something I thought I was seeing but in a much better, clearer way than I would be able to explain.  But basically he is waiting on the ball a fraction of a second longer.  He is able to then recognize the type of pitch.  His bat speed is naturally fast enough that he can catch up to fastballs still and drive them and any thing offspeed he can pull hard.

 

It seems he also is able to recognize balls and strikes doing this as well since he has had 3 walks in this last 8 plate appearances.