Article: Buxton Not Alone In Early-Season Struggles

[Seth Stohs]

In case you haven’t been following the Minnesota Twins to this point in the season, Byron Buxton has started the season really slowly. On Monday night in Texas, he went 0-2 with two walks and is now hitting just .105/.177/.140 (.318). There is really no way to sugarcoat those numbers. Nick wrote a bit about his struggles yesterday.

 

While few have struggled to the level that Buxton has to start this season, there are a lot of hitters who are just not hitting to this point. Heading into play on Monday, 27 qualifying players (have 3.1 at bats per game their team plays for) had a batting average below .200. The average batting average in MLB was .241.There are six players in the big leagues who are 22 to 24 years old and hitting under .220 heading into Monday’s games. I thought it would be interesting to see if their teams have done anything about those players. Have they been demoted? Will they be demoted? Have they been moved in the lineup at all? I think I found some consistencies in the research.

 

 

Dansby Swanson - 23 - SS - Atlanta Braves

2017 Stats*: .139/.162/.194 (.357) in 74 plate appearances over 18 games.

 

Swanson was the first overall draft pick in the 2015 draft out of Vanderbilt. Inexplicably, Dave Stewart decided to trade the Georgia native to Atlanta (with two others) for Shelby Miller. The Braves called him up late last year. He played in 38 big league games, he hit .302/.361/.442 (.803) in 145 plate appearances. He had 34 strikeouts, but he also walked 13 times.

 

Part of his struggles this season can be tied to his strikeout-to-walk rate. He has 19 strikeouts to go with just two walks.

 

He began the 2017 season as Atlanta’s second-place hitter. He stayed in that spot for the first 14 games. He then got a day off. At that point he was in a 3-33 slump which dropped his average to .131. When he returned to the lineup this past weekend, he had been moved to the eighth spot.

 

Swanson seems to be taking the struggles in stride. When he was given his one game off, he told the Atlanta Journal-Constitution:

 

“When you’re going like this each at-bat is kind of a battle,” Swanson said. “I was just talking to some people about how, it’s like, they throw those perfect breaking balls on certain counts and they make certain pitches, and then when you do hit balls hard people seem to be standing right there and stuff. But you’ve got to do your best to not let that affect you — just because you’re not getting the result doesn’t mean you’re not doing the right thing.

“This game, it’s hard. It’s just a weird concept because you can execute everything perfectly and not be successful, whereas in football if you run a play perfectly you’re going to be successful, or in basketball if you shoot the perfect shot it’s going in. It’s just funny how, in this (sport), you can take the perfect swing and it doesn’t matter. Nothing’s really in your control except your immediate action.”

Tim Anderson - 24 - SS - Chicago White Sox

2017 Stats*: .179/.203/.254 (.457) in 69 plate appearances

 

Anderson was the White Sox first-round pick in 2013 out of Community College. He was called up in mid-June and played in 99 games. He hit .283/.306/.432 (.738).

 

Those that have watched the White Sox since his call up know what his issue can be. Throw him a breaking ball outside of the strike zone, and he’ll probably still swing at it. Last year, he saw just 3.7 pitches per plate appearance. This year, that number is down to just 3.3.

 

But the White Sox obviously see him as a future star and leader on the team. . This spring, they locked him up to a six year, $25 million contract. With a couple of option years, the value of the contract could exceed $51 million. So, he’s probably got some leeway. He began the season by batting second the first seven games, and then he moved up to the leadoff spot for three games. After a day off, he has hit second four times and led off twice. Through 16 games, Rich Renteria has chosen to keep Anderson near the top of the order.

 

 

Orlando Arcia - 22 - SS - Milwaukee Brewers

2017 Stats*: .210/.234/.306 (.541) in 64 plate appearances over the first 18 games

 

Arcia was signed out of Venezuela. He is the younger brother of former Twins outfielder Oswaldo Arcia. He is known for his premiere defense at shortstop, which may surprise those of us who watched Oswaldo out in the outfield in Target Field.

 

He was called up late last year and played in 55 games for the Brewers last year. He hit .219/.273/.358 (.631). The Brewers have him up primarily for his defense and are letting him grow into the offensive side of the game. That is shown, in part, by the fact that they have had him hitting eighth or even ninth in their lineup in each game he’s played.

 

Brewers manager Craig Counsell recently told the Milwaukee Journal Sentinel:

 

 

 

"Development is not a straight line," Counsell said. "Failure is part of it. You don’t know for who and when, but you know that there’s going to be struggles, and you have to get through those times. That’s when most of the learning happens and the biggest adjustments are going to happen."

"Look, I don’t want to see guys struggle. It’s hard seeing guys struggle. But I know also a lot of good can come from the struggle, and that’s what I always remain hopeful about."

 

Jose Peraza - 22 - 2B/SS - Cincinnati Reds

2017 Stats*: .216/.256/.257 (.513) in 78 plate appearances over 18 games

 

Peraza actually made his MLB debut in 2015 when he played in seven games for the Dodgers before being involved in his second, three-team trade in his young career. It sent him to Cincinnati. In 2016, he hit .324/.352/.411 (.762) in 72 games and 256 plate appearances. He played around the infield, but mostly in the two middle spots.

 

This year, he is off to a slow start. However, in all 18 games he has played, he has hit first or second.

 

Chad Dotson from Redleg Nation doesn’t think that Peraza is in any danger of a demotion:

 

 

 

As far as I know, there has been no public discussion about either sending Peraza down or dropping him in the lineup. In my opinion, it is highly unlikely that Peraza will be demoted. He’s still just 22 years old, and current management has reason to be patient with the young guys at the heart of the rebuild.

 

This is a season for the Reds to see who they have and what they can do. Peraza will get a much longer leash than 3 weeks. (Plus, his defense has been good.)

 

Trevor Story - 24 - SS - Colorado Rockies

2017 Stats*: .169/.270/.415 (.686) in 74 plate appearances over 19 games

 

Story was the big story early last season. In his MLB debut last year, he hit two home runs. He had six home runs in his first four games. Unfortunately, his season ended after just 97 games due to injury, but he finished by hitting 21 doubles and 27 home runs. He hit .272/.341/.567 (.909).

 

So, it’s clear that he isn’t off to the same kind of start as he was last year. However, he has continued to show the home run power. Rockies fans are surprised when Story hits a single so far this year.

 

He started the season hitting fifth, and batted fourth or fifth each of the first seven games. Since then, he has hit primarily sixth, but also has three games where he’s batted seventh as well. So for now, he has been dropped a little in the lineup.

 

 

Carlos Correa - 23 - SS - Houston Astros

2017 Stats*: .197/.286/.295 (.581) with 70 plate appearances in 16 games.

 

Correa was the top pick in the 2012 MLB draft, one pick ahead of Byron Buxton. Correa was called up halfway through the 2015 season and hit 22 homers on his way to the AL Rookie of the Year. In 2016, he hit .274/.361/.451 (.811) with 36 doubles, 20 homers and 96 RBI.

 

2017 hasn’t started out real well for Correa. However, he has been the Astros cleanup hitter each game that he’s played this season, and that probably won’t change anytime soon.

 

SUMMARY

 

So what have we noticed from reviewing the six players above? Maybe you’ll think through some more, but here are a few things I noticed.

• If you go on Twitter or read comments sections, there are two distinct groups of fans for each of these players. There are the ones who want a guy demoted (or even just given up on), and there are those that will support said player as long as it takes. Here’s a good example from Twitter regarding Dansby Swanson:

 

2.) Defense - you’ll notice that each of these players plays an up-the-middle position, and plays it well. While Buxton is the only outfielder, most of them are shortstops. Each is known for being a plus defender.

 

3.) Byron Buxton was the Twins #3 hitter on Opening Day. Having watched him play this spring, it was an aggressive, but understandable plan. Not because of any numbers he put up in spring training, but because of the quality of the at-bats that he was having. After struggling for five games, Paul Molitor moved him down the lineup and he’s primarily been batting ninth since. He’s been pinch-hit for three times and sat out a couple of games too. Swanson stayed in the second spot for 14 games before being moved down this weekend. Story has dropped from five to seven. But the rest have stayed in their spots.

 

4.) Online searching tells me that none of the other players are in any danger of being demoted, at least not in the near future.

 

5.) Patience is what is being preached. That’s not new. Player development is not linear. Not everyone develops at the same time. Sometimes being optioned helps. Sometimes a player needs to figure things out in the big leagues.

 

6.) Walk and strikeout rates are pretty consistently telling in seeing player struggles. I don’t think that surprises anyone. Players that have a better control of the strike zone have a tendency to avoid longer slumps, and they don’t get themselves out by swinging at pitches outside the strike zone.

 

Now, we don’t watch these other teams play as often as we watch the Twins. It’s also pretty certain from the stats and the strikeout rates that Buxton’s struggles have exceeded even those mentioned above. Personally, I would like to see the Twins continue to play Buxton most every day and let him try to work through this.

 

Finally, here is a list of the 27 players who entered Monday’s game with a sub-.200 batting average.

 

Jose Reyes - .104

Ryan Schimpf - .109

Jose Bautista - .132

Devon Travis - .136

Dansby Swanson - .139

Danny Valencia - .145

Curtis Granderson - .149

Travis Jankowski - .160

Mike Napoli - .162

Erick Aybar - .164

Trevor Story - .169

Alex Gordon - .169

Dexter Fowler - .169

Maikel Franco - .171

Scott Schebler - .175

Austin Hedges - .175

Tim Anderson - .179

Brett Gardner - .182

Jonathan Villar - .185

Rougned Odor - .187

Alcides Escobar - .190

Danny Espinosa - .191

Domingo Santana - .193

Adonis Garcia - .194

Justin Bour - .194

Carlos Gonzalez - .197

Carlos Correa - .197

 

It’s an interesting mix, isn’t it? There are young players and there are old players. There are some former All-Stars, and there are guys you had to look up to see what team they even play for.

 

It’s easy to jump to conclusions early in a season even though we all know it’s a very small sample. But with Buxton, the question that Derek Falvey and Thad Levine have to be asking themselves is: What is best for Byron Buxton’s long-term future? Learn in the big leagues or learn in AAA Rochester. The problem is, there is no way to know which answer is more correct than the other. Share your thoughts.

 

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[AlwaysinModeration]

Great piece, I love the premise. Of the guys you mention, Buxton has gotten between 6 and 21 fewer plate appearances. So far he has been benched three times, pinch hit for three times, and moved down in the line-up three times. He got hits in back to back games for the first time this season Friday and Saturday...and then was pinch hit for in the 9th of the second game, and then benched on Sunday.

 

Tim Anderson went 2/4 and 3/5 in his last two games, raising his batting average from 159 to 208.

 

It seems to me that confidence is a critical element in baseball. Last year, Dozier was not good for two months and they stuck with him, allowing him to get his timing down and gain his confidence. The other players mentioned in this article seem to be being given a considerably longer leash than Buxton to get on track. With the almost continual demotions/benchings/lineup downgrades, it seems like Molitor / the Twins have been actively trying to hurt his confidence, not build it up.

 

Stick him in a set spot in the lineup every day, preferably 7th or higher so he gets a few extra ABs. Quit pinch-hitting for him. Don't even think about, or hint at, sending him down to AAA.

 

He is going to start pushing less and striking out less. He is going to put up a two-hit game, or maybe go 3-4 one game. He is going to hit some triples and some home runs. That is going to build his confidence. The hitter he was in the minors (and perhaps September) is going to come to the surface. Give him time to do it, and stand behind instead of undermining him.

 

It's really the most important thing for this organization to be doing right now.

[nytwinsfan]

According to Fangraphs, Buxton is worth 0.0 WAR.  Imagine having a .304 OPS and still not being worth negative WAR. That's how good his defense and baserunning have been. Players that Fangraphs says have less WAR: Eddie Rosario (-0.1), Joe Mauer (-0.3), Danny Santana (-0.2), Kyle Gibson (-0.4). 

 

Also, three of his four PAs last night were very good, getting lots of pitches and looks and laying off a number of pitches that he would normally have swung at. He also just looked less lost than he has recently. Hopefully the beginning of the start of something better.

[Old Twins Cap]

All this may be true, baseball players struggle.

 

It does not however, take away the cringe-factor of watching Buxton flail and do so many things wrong and have so little chance of hitting a baseball this spring.

 

We all hope that changes, and soon.

 

Meanwhile the pain of watching him at the plate is a joy-kill of epic proportions, and ripples outward to the furthest shores of Twins Territory, making everyone consider how their life/play/leisure decisions could have gone so incredibly wrong.

[mikelink45]

well done.  I like your research and data.  It does not make Buxton shine, but it certainly gives us some perspective.  I am so anxious for him to get this horrible period behind him.  Yesterday I posted the worst starts for HOF players.  We love baseball because it is filled so many variations, but sometimes they can also drive us crazy.

[Brock Beauchamp]

 

According to Fangraphs, Buxton is worth 0.0 WAR.  Imagine having a .304 OPS and still not being worth negative WAR. That's how good his defense and baserunning have been. Players that Fangraphs says have less WAR: Eddie Rosario (-0.1), Joe Mauer (-0.3), Danny Santana (-0.2), Kyle Gibson (-0.4). 

 

Also, three of his four PAs last night were very good, getting lots of pitches and looks and laying off a number of pitches that he would normally have swung at. He also just looked less lost than he has recently. Hopefully the beginning of the start of something better.

Despite the horrific struggles, I think management is handling Buxton correctly. As you said, he seems to be taking better plate appearances lately and both the radio and television crews have mentioned how he's taking extra reps on his frequent days off.

 

We know Buxton can mash AAA pitching. I feel that if he's going to make an adjustment, it needs to be at the MLB level with the best coaches in the Twins organization (or, at least they should be the best coaches in the org).

 

Buxton has crossed 500 MLB PAs. He needs to figure out how to adjust against the best pitching in the world, even if it causes fan agony to watch the process unfold five times a week.

[bighat]

Great article and thanks for the research.  I was kinda hoping someone would do this. The dark cloud to your silver lining: it seems like Buxton is still the worst player on this list by a long shot, alas.  

 

While these stats do help, I'm more heartened by seeing Bux take 2 walks (and score the eventual winning run) last night.  I tuned in last night and saw his batting average was over .100 and I was pretty happy to see that.  Small victories, eh?  

[Dantes929]

There were points in Twins past where Crain and Liriano told the manager "I have no idea what I am doing out there".   They were demoted and to their credit they worked their way through their troubles and came back strong.   Until Buxton says something like that you keep putting him out there and let him work on figuring it out.   Personally, when I see the lineup I like seeing Buxton out there.   I want to witness the game where it all clicks and he gets in a groove.   Its a less interesting lineup when he is not in it.

[Loosey]

Watching last nights game made me think something good is about to happen for him.  His approach at the plate as well as his swing looked different.

 

In his first at bat it was clear to me he was giving himself that extra .00001 second to see the ball as opposed to his earlier approach of trying to pull everything and then being way out ahead of anything offspeed or swing at pitches outside the strike zone. Last night he seemed to be letting the ball get there a little longer and made solid contact (granted they were foul balls and a fly out) but it looked different.

 

Also, his swings last night looked much easier and smooth.  I personally thought he was up there swinging as hard as he could before, last nights swings looked smooth, almost like he trusts his natural bat speed to be able to do the damage for him without swinging out of his shoes.  Hope the next step is results.  

[Linus]

I still think he has to make his swing more compact and focus on contact. He's long to the hitting zone so he has to start a little early which negates his ability to recognize pitches. I would lower his hands and ditch the leg kick. He needs to look at video of his manager.

[brvama]

Great piece, I love the premise. ...

It seems to me that confidence is a critical element in baseball. Last year, Dozier was not good for two months and they stuck with him, allowing him to get his timing down and gain his confidence. The other players mentioned in this article seem to be being given a considerably longer leash than Buxton to get on track. With the almost continual demotions/benchings/lineup downgrades, it seems like Molitor / the Twins have been actively trying to hurt his confidence, not build it up.

Stick him in a set spot in the lineup every day, preferably 7th or higher so he gets a few extra ABs. Quit pinch-hitting for him. Don't even think about, or hint at, sending him down to AAA.

He is going to start pushing less and striking out less. He is going to put up a two-hit game, or maybe go 3-4 one game. He is going to hit some triples and some home runs. That is going to build his confidence. The hitter he was in the minors (and perhaps September) is going to come to the surface. Give him time to do it, and stand behind instead of undermining him.

It's really the most important thing for this organization to be doing right now.

Totally agree with this. There is nothing to prove in AAA and he needs to learn with the Twins. As Swanson alluded to the difference in the majors where one can do things right and still come out on the short end because of the much better caliber of pitching. I don't like the jerking around either. Build his confidence even if it's in slow and painful.

As I wrote on another post, he needs to find that "attitude" that gives him a can do mentality. If he is really lost and confused, then bench him for a few games so he might find that hunger again. But for pete's sake don't bench him when he's starting show progress like this weekend.

[Don't Feed the Greed Guy]

28 k's in 57 at-bats. If that near 50% k-rate continues, and the batting average stays below .150, how long until he's sent down to AAA? Mid-May? June 1st? All-Star break? 

 

The Twins are only 1.5 games out of first place in the AL Central, and need MLB-caliber at-bats in order to stay in contention. I don't want to see a team that could play meaningful games in June or July throw away at-bats in April and May. Daniel Palka (.935 OPS in AAA) could make a difference now, or a healthy Zach Granite (CF, on the 7-day DL, and 2016 Minor League Player of the Year) could if he's clicking in a few weeks. 

 

How long can this go on?

[nytwinsfan]

 

28 k's in 57 at-bats. If that near 50% k-rate continues, and the batting average stays below .150, how long until he's sent down to AAA? Mid-May? June 1st? All-Star break? 

 

The Twins are only 1.5 games out of first place in the AL Central, and need MLB-caliber at-bats in order to stay in contention. I don't want to see a team that could play meaningful games in June or July throw away at-bats in April and May. Daniel Palka (.935 OPS in AAA) could make a difference now, or a healthy Zach Granite (CF, on the 7-day DL, and 2016 Minor League Player of the Year) could if he's clicking in a few weeks. 

 

How long can this go on?

 

I get the sentiment, but he just had his best game at the plate of the year last night and Granite is still injured and will take time to be ready. Palka is not a replacement for Buxton. Even if you shift Rosario or Kepler to Center, that's going to be a huge downgrade to the defense, which our pitching can't handle right now.

[Loosey]

 

28 k's in 57 at-bats. If that near 50% k-rate continues, and the batting average stays below .150, how long until he's sent down to AAA? Mid-May? June 1st? All-Star break? 

 

The Twins are only 1.5 games out of first place in the AL Central, and need MLB-caliber at-bats in order to stay in contention. I don't want to see a team that could play meaningful games in June or July throw away at-bats in April and May. Daniel Palka (.935 OPS in AAA) could make a difference now, or a healthy Zach Granite (CF, on the 7-day DL, and 2016 Minor League Player of the Year) could if he's clicking in a few weeks. 

 

How long can this go on?

You can't send him down to AAA.  He has nothing to prove there.  He needs to make the necessary adjustments in the majors.  

[Mike Sixel]

It's almost like those first 450 ABs never happened, and people are only judging him on this year!

 

Seth, if the Astros offered you Correa for Buxton, you'd say what?

[Trov]

The issue I see with Buxton is he is too coachable. Meaning, when he struggles he takes in too much coaching and overthinks everything.  Hopefully, he can just sit back and go back to his basics.  I don't see any need to send him down, until his lack of offense starts costing us games, compared to what his defense gives the team, compared to whoever we would replace him with. 

[Loosey]

 

I get the sentiment, but he just had his best game at the plate of the year last night and Granite is still injured and will take time to be ready. Palka is not a replacement for Buxton. Even if you shift Rosario or Kepler to Center, that's going to be a huge downgrade to the defense, which our pitching can't handle right now.

I agree.  I think people get too focused on his batting average and strike outs.  Which really do stick out because they are so low and high.  

 

But as you alluded to, last night was his best night at the plate and I agree.  His at bats were professional (I didn't see the strikeout).  But his line out to left was a great at bat, and he also coaxed two walks. The first one which caused him to be the game winning run, and his speed assured he scored from first.  

 

Over over the past week I have seen the changes in his AB's.  Once they results stat to show up from the process things could get exciting.  

 

That all being said he he has dug himself into a huge hole from a stats perspective (which really don't matter or tell the whole story). But he only has 57 official AB's so far this year.  If something were to click tonight and he ends up hitting .260 over his next 500 AB's (probably a stretch, but not an absurd possibility) his batting average would be in .245 range. That along with his defense probably him into 2+ WAR territory for the year. I think he's close. 

 

 

 

[Otto von Ballpark]

FWIW, Buxton's performance at the plate is still worse than these other guys:

 

http://www.fangraphs.com/leaders.aspx?pos=all&stats=bat&lg=all&qual=0&type=8&season=2017&month=0&season1=2017&ind=0&team=0&rost=0&age=0&filter=&players=14161,18314,15172,13185,13593,12564,14162&sort=17,d

[bird]

I'm really surprised that Scott Schebler is struggling.

[Mike Sixel]

 

FWIW, Buxton's performance at the plate is still worse than these other guys:

 

http://www.fangraphs.com/leaders.aspx?pos=all&stats=bat&lg=all&qual=0&type=8&season=2017&month=0&season1=2017&ind=0&team=0&rost=0&age=0&filter=&players=14161,18314,15172,13185,13593,12564,14162&sort=17,d

 

It hurt my eyes to look at any of those numbers.

[bighat]

 

28 k's in 57 at-bats. If that near 50% k-rate continues, and the batting average stays below .150, how long until he's sent down to AAA? Mid-May? June 1st? All-Star break? 

 

The Twins are only 1.5 games out of first place in the AL Central, and need MLB-caliber at-bats in order to stay in contention. I don't want to see a team that could play meaningful games in June or July throw away at-bats in April and May. Daniel Palka (.935 OPS in AAA) could make a difference now, or a healthy Zach Granite (CF, on the 7-day DL, and 2016 Minor League Player of the Year) could if he's clicking in a few weeks. 

 

How long can this go on?

 

See, I agree with this post 100%.   If the Twins are sitting 20 games out on July 1st, I have no problem with Bux playing every day.  But when a team says "We're going to let this team fail", it's really hard to swallow as a fan.  Buxton HAS lost this team a couple of games, let's be honest.  Yes, his glove is helpful!   But would you all be saying the same thing about defense if Castro was batting .105 and had struck out 50% of the time? 

 

I agree that the lineup is more interesting with Buxton in there.  I also agree that the Twins should keep him in the lineup for now.  But can we quit clapping for pop-outs and dribblers?  He's struck out in every game he's played.  Can we be honest that he's been a heartbreaking disaster so far? 

 

Everyone who says "keep Buxton in the lineup" is assuming he'll start to hit.  But what if he doesn't?  He hasn't so far.  If he keeps going like this, you have to demote him.  And by then, it'll be too late to salvage a season...so we'll have a crap season and Bux in AAA.  I don't want that. 

[Mike Sixel]

 

See, I agree with this post 100%.   If the Twins are sitting 20 games out on July 1st, I have no problem with Bux playing every day.  But when a team says "We're going to let this team fail", it's really hard to swallow as a fan.  Buxton HAS lost this team a couple of games, let's be honest.  Yes, his glove is helpful!   But would you all be saying the same thing about defense if Castro was batting .105 and had struck out 50% of the time? 

 

I agree that the lineup is more interesting with Buxton in there.  I also agree that the Twins should keep him in the lineup for now.  But can we quit clapping for pop-outs and dribblers?  He's struck out in every game he's played.  Can we be honest that he's been a heartbreaking disaster so far? 

 

Everyone who says "keep Buxton in the lineup" is assuming he'll start to hit.  But what if he doesn't?  He hasn't so far.  If he keeps going like this, you have to demote him.  And by then, it'll be too late to salvage a season...so we'll have a crap season and Bux in AAA.  I don't want that. 

 

I'd say that any fan that expected a good season this year was setting themselves up for disappointment. This is a mid70s win team, that needs to see what players are good or not. Frankly, I wish they'd actually commit to rebuilding, but that does not seem to be the path.

[Otto von Ballpark]

 

According to Fangraphs, Buxton is worth 0.0 WAR.  Imagine having a .304 OPS and still not being worth negative WAR. That's how good his defense and baserunning have been.

It's mostly defense (which makes sense, given how little he has reached base).  His UZR/150 right now is an insane 48.1.  Buxton is a fantastic defender, but that's likely some small sample size noise -- for comparison, Billy Hamilton is also well-regarded and has a comparably outstanding 42 UZR/150 right now -- but in 3 previous season, he's never finished with even half of that.

 

Even as an elite defender, Buxton will probably finish about 10-20 runs, or 1-2 wins, lower than his current defensive pace, which is a gap he's going to have to make up at the plate soon if he wants to maintain his replacement level status (much less improve to average).

[Don't Feed the Greed Guy]

 

You can't send him down to AAA.  He has nothing to prove there.  He needs to make the necessary adjustments in the majors.  

And what if he doesn't make the necessary adjustments? How long can this go on IF there is no improvement? That's my basic question.

[Mike Sixel]

 

And what if he doesn't make the necessary adjustments? How long can this go on IF there is no improvement? That's my basic question.

 

Mid-June, imo. He'll have been given 200 ABs or so, by then. That's enough consistent chances to see if he needs to go down. The real question is, what do his approach/results need to look like to stay?

[Taildragger8791]

 

You can't send him down to AAA.  He has nothing to prove there.  He needs to make the necessary adjustments in the majors.  

 

It's not about "proving" anything. I'm kind of tired of hearing that phrase. It's about going to an environment more conducive to learning and making adjustments for young players because the difficulty level isn't ratched up to 11.

 

That said, I'm not ready to send him down yet since there has been glimmers of progress lately. Let's see if that turns into anything or if it's just a blip.

[Don't Feed the Greed Guy]

 

I get the sentiment, but he just had his best game at the plate of the year last night and Granite is still injured and will take time to be ready. Palka is not a replacement for Buxton. Even if you shift Rosario or Kepler to Center, that's going to be a huge downgrade to the defense, which our pitching can't handle right now.

Yes, Granite is still injured. That's why he is only an option in a few weeks, or more likely in June or July, if he gets healthy and puts up the same kind of numbers that he did in AA last year. He could be a quality centerfielder, and lead off. He may not have the same ceiling as Buxton, but we don't know that, do we?

 

Palka is like having a Willingham or an Arcia in the outfield, a HUGE step down from Buxton, for sure. But if the offensive upgrade offsets the downgrade with a greater WAR, then the Twins should do it. AAA is for developing quality prospects who can contribute in the Major Leagues. If Buxton isn't ready to face MLB arms, then get this 23 yr-old prospect the work he needs OFF the Twins roster. 

 

I'm patient. I can wait for Buxton to click. I want him to succeed so that the Twins win more ballgames and can be competitive in 2017. But that's goal--to win games--and on a business level--to sell tickets. Buck can still help this team in the years to come.

 

So, back to my question, if there is NO improvement, how much longer is the leash?

[Brock Beauchamp]

 

Mid-June, imo. He'll have been given 200 ABs or so, by then. That's enough consistent chances to see if he needs to go down. The real question is, what do his approach/results need to look like to stay?

I agree on mid-June as a target. That's nearly half a season to right the ship.

 

For me, he can stay if he's hitting somewhere above .600 (not overall for the season, the few weeks preceding mid-to-late June).

[Dave The Dastardly]

Forget sending him down. We already have far too many players in the minors that are too good for minor league competition, but haven't been given the chance to prove themselves at the major league level. It's sink or swim time for many of them, but if we never throw them in the deep end of the pool we'll never find out. Get on with it. Put 'em to the test and if they can't cut it, well then have a fire sale. At the least we'd open up some spots in the minors for future prospects that might prove to be major league material.

[nytwinsfan]

 

It's mostly defense (which makes sense, given how little he has reached base).  His UZR/150 right now is an insane 48.1.  Buxton is a fantastic defender, but that's likely some small sample size noise -- for comparison, Billy Hamilton is also well-regarded and has a comparably outstanding 42 UZR/150 right now -- but in 3 previous season, he's never finished with even half of that.

 

Even as an elite defender, Buxton will probably finish about 10-20 runs, or 1-2 wins, lower than his current defensive pace, which is a gap he's going to have to make up at the plate soon if he wants to maintain his replacement level status (much less improve to average).

Based on your post Spycake, I checked fangraphs, and according to this, Buxton has the most defensive WAR of any player in MLB.

 

He also has the best UZR and UZR/150.