Article: Spring Backward

[Mike Sixel]

 

  On 4/24/2017 at 10:06 PM, drjim said:

And drafted players (in original org) will skew heavily towards everyday guys over starting pitchers.

 

ya, that wasn't broken out, and google didn't return many good options for this kind of thing in my limited search.

[Mike Sixel]

Heh, right in there he says to look at rosterresource.com....and its there!

[Mike Sixel]

Wow, Escobar and Santiago are the only two traded for.......that's bad.

[Thrylos]

 

  On 4/24/2017 at 1:29 PM, mikelink45 said:

Kyle Gibson - fifth year - record - 32-41 4.72 era 1.42 whip.  His third year was good, his trend is not. -0.4 WAR for his career.

 

Nope.  That -0.4 fWAR is for 2017.  His career number is 5.5 fWAR (1.8 points higher than Hector Santiago's, and 1.5 higher than Nick Blackburn's, FWIW)

 

As far as Gibson goes:  4 games.  Stuff happens.  When I look at his numbers, the ones that jump out at me are 26.3% HR/FB, .362 BABIP & 60.7% LOB%.  They will normalize.

 

He has a career high this season with 10.2 SwStr%, which is encouraging.  As far as pitches go, his velocity is there, looks like he needs to get a feel of his slider and change.   From those four games, he had an average game that the Twins won (Game score 48), two below average games ( GS 35 & 38) and a bad game (GS 17), for which Buddy B. was the one who let 2 of the 7 runs in, and the Twins' infielders had balls go under their gloves. 

 

Stuff happens.  I'd give him another month or so before I panic. 

Edited April 24, 2017 by Thrylos

[Thrylos]

 

  On 4/24/2017 at 10:14 PM, Mike Sixel said:

Wow, Escobar and Santiago are the only two traded for.......that's bad.

 

That's TR

[drjim]

  On 4/24/2017 at 10:14 PM, Mike Sixel said:

Wow, Escobar and Santiago are the only two traded for.......that's bad.

And Santiago is a stretch to count as it was a bad salary dump.

 

The lack of talent acquired through trade is by far the biggest problem of Ryan's tenure. It amplifies other aspects that weren't great but probably aren't worthy of the scorn they receive either.

[USNMCPO]

I have no data to base this on, but I think that Gibson will turn it around enough to be an average 3-4 starter. I think a bigger problem is Hughes. I see a pitcher who's career has sailed without him. Injuries and age catch up to some faster than others.

[yarnivek1972]

  On 4/24/2017 at 10:21 PM, Thrylos said:

Nope. That -0.4 fWAR is for 2017. His career number is 5.5 fWAR (1.8 points higher than Hector Santiago's, and 1.5 higher than Nick Blackburn's, FWIW)

 

As far as Gibson goes: 4 games. Stuff happens. When I look at his numbers, the ones that jump out at me are 26.3% HR/FB, .362 BABIP & 60.7% LOB%. They will normalize.

 

He has a career high this season with 10.2 SwStr%, which is encouraging. As far as pitches go, his velocity is there, looks like he needs to get a feel of his slider and change. From those four games, he had an average game that the Twins won (Game score 48), two below average games ( GS 35 & 38) and a bad game (GS 17), for which Buddy B. was the one who let 2 of the 7 runs in, and the Twins' infielders had balls go under their gloves.

 

Stuff happens. I'd give him another month or so before I panic.

Gibson has posted an ERA well north of 5 since the 2015 All Star break. That's over 40% of his career. Do you really need another month to accept that that is simply what he is?

[OldTimeTwinkie]

Plouffe 4 hrs 9 rbi's at third would have looked nice with Sano DH and first base where he belongs.

[yarnivek1972]

  On 4/24/2017 at 10:55 PM, OldTimeTwinkie said:

Plouffe 4 hrs 9 rbi's at third would have looked nice with Sano DH and first base where he belongs.

How would Plouffe's 3 errors look?

[Deduno Abides]

A team projected to win 74 games would, after 18 games played, have . . . 8 wins.

[mikelink45]

 

  On 4/24/2017 at 10:21 PM, Thrylos said:

Nope.  That -0.4 fWAR is for 2017.  His career number is 5.5 fWAR (1.8 points higher than Hector Santiago's, and 1.5 higher than Nick Blackburn's, FWIW)

 

As far as Gibson goes:  4 games.  Stuff happens.  When I look at his numbers, the ones that jump out at me are 26.3% HR/FB, .362 BABIP & 60.7% LOB%.  They will normalize.

 

He has a career high this season with 10.2 SwStr%, which is encouraging.  As far as pitches go, his velocity is there, looks like he needs to get a feel of his slider and change.   From those four games, he had an average game that the Twins won (Game score 48), two below average games ( GS 35 & 38) and a bad game (GS 17), for which Buddy B. was the one who let 2 of the 7 runs in, and the Twins' infielders had balls go under their gloves. 

 

Stuff happens.  I'd give him another month or so before I panic. 

3.2 War came in his career year.  That leaves 1 for the other four years. Still not excited by this.  http://www.baseball-reference.com/players/g/gibsoky01.shtml Wins above Average Adjusted  - 0.4

I am glad Gibson has one fan - but it would take a lot to get me to join you.  From last years horrible year his strike out per walk is down, his WHIP is way up (I value this stat a lot), his FIP is up.  He is building off a horrible year with a worst year.  

 

I hope you are right and it turns around and he is great, but if so I will be very pleasantly surprised and wrong. 

 

[mikelink45]

Now that Tepesch instead of Berrios is coming up I expect the team to soar.  (Sarcasm alert). 

[mlhouse]

 

  On 4/24/2017 at 9:26 PM, drjim said:

There is much to criticize about the Twins development, but neither of these strike me as all that convincing.

 

The total amount of players on the roster drafted by the team is actually pretty comparable to most teams around the league. But what has really killed the franchise during the last 6 years is they have been so bad at talent acquisition from means other than the draft. They were so mediocre in their trades, not much for free agent signings or waiver pickups, very few of the sign and flip type deals.

 

And for all the hot takes floating around about Buxton's development, I never thought I'd see that he wasn't rushed enough.

 

 

Wow, not sure if anything can convince you then.  I point out that the Twins pitching staff,  despite multiple year of futility and high draft picks, has 4 marginal pitchers on the MLB roster?  That is shrug?

 

Go back to the last good season the Twins franchis had, 2011.  4 out 5 of their starting rotation was essentially homegrown (counting Liriano).  Of their relief pitchers with the most appearances, 3 out of 5 were homegrown and this was before Perkins emerged as the closer.   

 

While there are a myriad of ways of building baseball teams, because of many factors (but mostly because our owners have always been too cheap), the Twins are limited to one real way:  develop the players in house.  The reason why this team hasn't been rebuilt is because they have failed in developing players.  

[DocBauer]

Right now, Gibson is the bugger disappointment for me. Like him or not, we have seen what he can be capable of. Seemingly healthy, working hard on his arm and mechanics, putting up solid performances in the spring, I really thought he was ready to get back on track. I don't know exactly what his problem is, or how to fix it, but he seems, IMO, to pitch tentatively. Does he not trust his stuff? His much improved defense? Is he just too afraid to make a mistake?

 

I am very concerned about Buxton, of course, but less so. He is very young still. He oozes with talent and ability. We have seen this before, years ago, from Hunter. (Similar at least). And we saw it with Gomez, also young and talented and probably given up on way too soon by the Twins. SOMEONE needs to work one on one with him to find a stance, stroke, approach and relaxed mental state to let him get going. Maybe Hunter? I'm unconcerned, at this point, about his first 50AB or so, and more concerned about his next 450+.

 

Players and pitchers have streaks, and very seldom, if ever, does everyone get hot at once. But just imagine another 2-3 wins for this improved team if Gibson and Buxton were just performing at a "solid" level at this point.

[drjim]

 

  On 4/25/2017 at 1:16 AM, mlhouse said:

Wow, not sure if anything can convince you then.  I point out that the Twins pitching staff,  despite multiple year of futility and high draft picks, has 4 marginal pitchers on the MLB roster?  That is shrug?

 

Go back to the last good season the Twins franchis had, 2011.  4 out 5 of their starting rotation was essentially homegrown (counting Liriano).  Of their relief pitchers with the most appearances, 3 out of 5 were homegrown and this was before Perkins emerged as the closer.   

 

While there are a myriad of ways of building baseball teams, because of many factors (but mostly because our owners have always been too cheap), the Twins are limited to one real way:  develop the players in house.  The reason why this team hasn't been rebuilt is because they have failed in developing players.  

 

They aren't limited to one way. Perhaps that was their attitude and it lead to this disaster.

 

They haven't drafted and developed pitching, I'm not disputing that, but it seems other competitive teams have been able to acquire it through different means, and not just signing 9 figure FA contracts.

 

On the flip side, 9 of the 13 everyday guys are homegrown.

[mlhouse]

 

  On 4/25/2017 at 2:03 AM, drjim said:

They aren't limited to one way. Perhaps that was their attitude and it lead to this disaster.

 

They haven't drafted and developed pitching, I'm not disputing that, but it seems other competitive teams have been able to acquire it through different means, and not just signing 9 figure FA contracts.

 

On the flip side, 9 of the 13 everyday guys are homegrown.

 

They arent limited to just one way, surely you jest.  

 

As far as the everyday players, yep.  But lets look at that a little deeper.  Two of the everyday players are 30 years or older:  Dozier and Mauer.  So, while I agree with you that they are "home grown" neither is really going to play a part of the long term future of the team at a competitive level.   Mauer is part of the early 2000 team that was decent and Dozier has wasted most of his career being poorly developed by the Twins and then on their losing, long term rebuild?  We agree on that?

 

So, that leaves us with Sano, Polanco, Rosario, Kepler, Buxton, Santana, Vargas.

 

Over the long run we know Danny Santana isn't going to be here. He had a fluke rookie season and since then has followed up performance that isn't MLB standards and he is 26 years old and showing no signs of getting better.  The Twins keep him up because they just refuse to bring up prospects and would rather plug a mediocrity at best hitting .100 than take a risk.

 

Vargas, I would put in the same boat.  He hit with decent power over a short stint last season but the Twins obviously have zero confidence in him.  NOt a total write off yet, but with his defensive limitations it is hard to see him long term.

 

Rosario, I can see him filling a Randy Bush/Gene Larkin like platoon role with better defense.  That can make him valuable in the long run and he still has some potential.

 

Buxton?  Already covered and it is starting to look like the writing is on the wall to me. 

 

I think Kepler, Polanco, and Sano have good potential yet. 

 

So, 3.5 guys with a total wild card in Buxton........not much to speak of.

 

And, while I understand it is out of the ordinary, no one has refuted the concept that bringing up Buxton right up from A+ ball when he was at his minor league peak would not have been a good idea.  

 

Again, what was the downside?  We would have lost more games since 2013?  We would not have the opportunity to watch Clete Thomas, Shane Robinson, Sam Fuld, Jordan Schaefer, and Logan Schafer play gloriously in center field?  That Buxton would have missed out on the fine development he obviusly had in his last minor league appearances that would have made his major league adjustment so much easier?  

 

I think the confidence he had as a player would have carried over and he would have adjusted.  After that, he was frustrated because injuries derailed him and he did not hit MLB succesfully, the Twins have changed his swing over and over, and the fact is he is probably never going to develop.  

 

Even with that in mind, if we would have brought him up in 2013, and he would have failed, we would be in a solid position knowing he isn't going to work out and would already be developing the next CF while the team was losing.  Now, 4 years later, we are still wondering.  Like I have said, one reason a rebuilding team should "rush" their prospects is that some, even the most touted, do not work out.  If you move them up slowly, that just pushes that recockning down the line when you need the players that can play to get competive (that is unless you are willing to live with many more years of futility).

[JW24]

I would like to see the Twins move on from Kyle Gibson once his arbitration years run out. At this point, at 29 years old, he should be hitting the prime of his career. He is essentially the same pitcher that broke into the big leagues in 2013.

 

Watching Gibson pitch, for a guy without overwhelming stuff, he misses spots by huge amounts. He looked defeated on the mound after Danny Santana dropped the fly ball in his last start. Just no toughness, no competitiveness in him. Having a guy like Gibson, who is competent, blocks the way for someone else who might be good from coming in and helping the team. Let him leave.