Article: Spring Backward

[wsnydes]

I'm less concerned with Gibson because I think his leash is nearing the end and that will work itself out sooner rather than later in a season where I don't really care about wins much.  I only care about the progression of the players needed in the future - a future that is looking more and more likely sans Gibson.

 

Buxton's struggles are a much different story.  I think his issues are more between the ears than physical.  I'd prefer him to work the kinks out with the big league club, but there may be a point where they'll have no choice but to send him down.  I hope that it doesn't get to that point.

 

I've been fine with the month long evaluation period, but it's time to start tweaking the roster to bring other deserving guys up at the expense of non-performing veterans like Gibson.

[Platoon]

I so hate to say this for like what? The sixth year in a row? But any decisions made have to be made for the next 4 years, not 4 months. That said there are really no good SP options, or at least not enough to turn the corner. The OF could be set, Sano likely would end up at 1B, and the pen has at least some promising options in MiLB. As for the middle IF, if they do not trade Dozier, I think Polanco's bat will force them to let Dozier go when his contract is up. If that does happen, I imagine/hope they go with a glove first SS. Polanco will likely never put up Doziers HR numbers because he doesn't sell out to the corner foul pole, but I think he will be a much better hitter before all is said and done. Some guys can just hit, and he seems to be one of them.

[yarnivek1972]

 

I so hate to say this for like what? The sixth year in a row? But any decisions made have to be made for the next 4 years, not 4 months. That said there are really no good SP options, or at least not enough to turn the corner. The OF could be set, Sano likely would end up at 1B, and the pen has at least some promising options in MiLB. As for the middle IF, if they do not trade Dozier, I think Polanco's bat will force them to let Dozier go when his contract is up. If that does happen, I imagine/hope they go with a glove first SS. Polanco will likely never put up Doziers HR numbers because he doesn't sell out to the corner foul pole, but I think he will be a much better hitter before all is said and done. Some guys can just hit, and he seems to be one of them.

Of course if you put Sano at first, you again lack a third baseman.  And as far as I know, there is nothing at that position down the line.  Maybe Nick Gordon could swing over to third.  Because Jermaine Palacios might be nipping at his heals at SS. Not sure Gordon will hit enough to play third.  A Polanco, Palacios, Gordon infield would be a lot of slap and giggle hitters.  So that means the Twins will need to get power everywhere else.  The only guy that looks like a legit 25 + HR guy is Sano.  The only other player who might be north of 15 consistently is Kepler.  Slap and giggle might work in the regular season, but it won't in the playoffs.  You need quick strike ability because the pitchers are better.  In the playoffs, you rarely see an inning with 4 or 5 singles leading to two runs.

[jimbo92107]

Actually, the Twins have a very good replacement for Buxton in AAA: Zach Granite. Send down the struggling young superstar and bring up a very fast CF with a decent bat and good base running skills. Granite is not considered a stellar prospect, but he's currently #22 in the Twins system, and he certainly won't do worse than Buxton right now at the plate. 

 

As others have observed, Buxton's main problem is confidence, but it now manifests itself in a terrible approach at the plate. Let him break it down to the fundamentals in Rochester, then gradually build his confidence back up. We all know Buxton can hit at this level from that hot streak he went on at the end of last season. A month in AAA without the pressure of big crowds and TV cameras might allow Buxton to get his smile back. Remember, Torii Hunter was up and down several times before he finally caught on for good. 

 

As for Gibson, I'm not sure what he needs. He's a veteran pitcher now, yet he still seems to lack command of his arsenal of pitches. What is the key variable between a good and a bad outing for this guy? It's tougher to analyze than Buxton because Gibson's difficulties don't seem to be consistent. He either shuts a team down, or he gets completely hammered. 

 

Assuming Berrios replaces Mejia, the only starter still available on the 40-man roster is Felix Jorge down in AA Chattanooga. Jorge currently is #6 in the Twins system, so he's considered a very good prospect. Give him a taste? One good thing about Jorge is that he has been a very good control pitcher his whole minor league career. I could see the Twins bringing him up for a few starts if Gibson goes on the DL for a while. Shoulder soreness, whatever. 

[Dr. Evil]

I contend that Buxton's long swing will not translate to the majors. He needs to become a different type of hitter to make the next step. More of a level direct cut instead of a long armed swoosh. I hope he does it before his other tools diminish.

 

I agree with the definition of insanity post above regarding Gibson. Some of us stated a couple weeks back that we didn't need 2-4 more starts to prove anything. Yet, here we are.

[yarnivek1972]

 

Actually, the Twins have a very good replacement for Buxton in AAA: Zach Granite. Send down the struggling young superstar and bring up a very fast CF with a decent bat and good base running skills. Granite is not considered a stellar prospect, but he's currently #22 in the Twins system, and he certainly won't do worse than Buxton right now at the plate. 

 

As others have observed, Buxton's main problem is confidence, but it now manifests itself in a terrible approach at the plate. Let him break it down to the fundamentals in Rochester, then gradually build his confidence back up. We all know Buxton can hit at this level from that hot streak he went on at the end of last season. A month in AAA without the pressure of big crowds and TV cameras might allow Buxton to get his smile back. Remember, Torii Hunter was up and down several times before he finally caught on for good. 

 

As for Gibson, I'm not sure what he needs. He's a veteran pitcher now, yet he still seems to lack command of his arsenal of pitches. What is the key variable between a good and a bad outing for this guy? It's tougher to analyze than Buxton because Gibson's difficulties don't seem to be consistent. He either shuts a team down, or he gets completely hammered. 

 

Assuming Berrios replaces Mejia, the only starter still available on the 40-man roster is Felix Jorge down in AA Chattanooga. Jorge currently is #6 in the Twins system, so he's considered a very good prospect. Give him a taste? One good thing about Jorge is that he has been a very good control pitcher his whole minor league career. I could see the Twins bringing him up for a few starts if Gibson goes on the DL for a while. Shoulder soreness, whatever. 

 

 

That'd be fine except that Granite is hurt and has not played all season.

[Nick Nelson]

Few things worth noting in Gibson's numbers:

 

.362 BABIP (.306 career)

26.3% HR/FB (11.9%)

12.9% IF hit% (5.7%)

60.7 LOB% (69.2%)

 

Not to mention the disproportionate number of poor defensive plays that have occurred behind him.

 

I'm not saying he's been great, but the GB, FB, K and BB rates are more or less in line with career norms. He's been very unlucky. Based on underlying trends, I'd be much more concerned about Hughes going forward.

[Otto von Ballpark]

Even for his career, though, Gibson has an 86 ERA+, 89 since his rookie season, and hasn't racked up a great deal of innings either.  He seems more like a home-grown Correia or Pelfrey in terms of overall effectiveness.  The fact that he's still not stepping up from the level of performance at age 29 is concerning, even if his peripherals haven't fallen off.

 

I have no issue with saying Buxton is more more concerning, of course, and probably Hughes too.

[yarnivek1972]

 

Few things worth noting in Gibson's numbers:

 

.362 BABIP (.306 career)

26.3% HR/FB (11.9%)

12.9% IF hit% (5.7%)

60.7 LOB% (69.2%)

 

Not to mention the disproportionate number of poor defensive plays that have occurred behind him.

 

I'm not saying he's been great, but the GB, FB, K and BB rates are more or less in line with career norms. He's been very unlucky. Based on underlying trends, I'd be much more concerned about Hughes going forward.

Well, Gibson isn't likely to post an ERA of 9 all season.  I'll concede that point.  But a career BABIP of .306 for a guy that gets 6 K per 9 is going to give up a ton of baserunners.  And a 12% HR/FB rate seems concerningly high to me.  Especially given that his GB/FB ratio has been trending the wrong way for the last two years.  He actually allowed more fly balls than ground balls last year, which was a first for him, most likely at any level.

 

Want to have some fun with sample size?  Take away Gibson's first half of 2015.  He posted a 2.85 ERA in 113 2/3 IP and everything was right with the world.  Other than that 3 month stretch, he has posted a 5.17 ERA in 475 2/3 IP.  So, ask yourself, which is the "real" Gibson and which is the fluke?  My take is that the real Gibson is a guy with an ERA north of 5.

Edited April 24, 2017 by yarnivek1972

[TheLeviathan]

Gibson is a problem for this year.  Buxton's struggles threaten the entire foundation of what we thought we were building.

[Nick Nelson]

 

Want to have some fun with sample size?  Take away Gibson's first half of 2015.  He posted a 2.85 ERA in 113 2/3 IP and everything was right with the world.  Other than that 3 month stretch, he has posted a 5.17 ERA in 475 2/3 IP.  So, ask yourself, which is the "real" Gibson and which is the fluke?  My take is that the real Gibson is a guy with an ERA north of 5.

All fair points, but I lean the other way. In 2014/15, he posted a 3.88 FIP over 374 innings. Everything was trending up heading into 2016, when it unraveled, but then I don't think he was ever right physically last summer.

 

Of course, possibly he'll never really be right physically again, despite his tinkering efforts during the offseason aimed to that end. So maybe it's all moot.

[yarnivek1972]

 

All fair points, but I lean the other way. In 2014/15, he posted a 3.88 FIP over 374 innings. Everything was trending up heading into 2016, when it unraveled, but then I don't think he was ever right physically last summer.

 

Of course, possibly he'll never really be right physically again, despite his tinkering efforts during the offseason aimed to that end. So maybe it's all moot.

 

I actually think you have to go further back.  It started to turn to the crapper in the second half of 2015.  5.22 ERA in that half season.  5.07 last year.  9 so far this year.  That's 40 plus starts with an ERA well over 5.  That's approaching half of his career.

[Mike Sixel]

 

Gibson is a problem for this year.  Buxton's struggles threaten the entire foundation of what we thought we were building.

 

right. Agreed. 

[Danchat]

 

I'm not saying he's been great, but the GB, FB, K and BB rates are more or less in line with career norms. He's been very unlucky. Based on underlying trends, I'd be much more concerned about Hughes going forward.

Yeah, I'm worried about Hughes as well. I think he will implode within the next month or so. 

 

Man, I wish May was healthy. We could really use him in the rotation right now...

[Nick Nelson]

 

Gibson is a problem for this year.  Buxton's struggles threaten the entire foundation of what we thought we were building.

Painfully well put

[yarnivek1972]

I guess I'd have to know what you would call "imploding" by Hughes.  I personally think he can still be a 6-7 IP guy with an ERA in the high 4 range.  He did basically miss all of last year.  It's going to take some time to get back into a rhythm.  Is he overpaid for that level of production?  Immensely.  Is there thing one that can be done about it? No.  So, smile, grit your teeth when he starts and hope for a 6-7 IP guy with an ERA in the high 4 range.  I think the mistake in his last start was Molitor believing the Twins still had a chance to win the game when they were down 5-2.  Made sense.  Tomlin's been terrible.  Realistically Hughes could have gone another couple innings and saved the pen a little.

[mlhouse]

Gibson, and Buxton, represent the total dysfunction of this team in developing their players.  If you look at their current pitching staff, just Gibson, Taylor Rogers, Tyler Duffy, and Mike Tonkin were developed within the Twins organization. That is it.  So, in the 6 years of futility and 90+ losses that gave us top of the order draft picks, the Twins have 4 marginal MLB pitchers drafted by the organization on the roster.  FOUR.  And it aint like any of these guys was rushed to the majors (Gibson was pushed, by the Twins standards a bit but that was because he had injuries).  They all moved through the system basically stepwise.

 

Buxton is a different case and it is baffling why he isn't performing even at a replacement level.  But, I am going to tell you the mistake the Twins made with Buxton.  They should have moved him up to the major leagues when he was 19 years old.  The major league team in 2013 was a 96 loss team so bringing up a minor league player wasn't going to cost them anything and they had 322 PA available for a no-body like Clete Thomas.  

 

Bringing Buxton up at the height of his confidence would have probably changed this story.  I have been saying this all along and Buxton is an exhibit of WHAT IS THE DOWN SIDE.  We would have lost more than 96 games?  We would have been deprived of the joy of watching Clete Thomas play CF?   That Buxton would have shown up ready for the major leagues????  Really.  At the MLB level this guy looks like he has never played the game before.  What good did those extra games in AA and AAA do for the kid?  Not a damn thing.

[Taildragger8791]

 

Few things worth noting in Gibson's numbers:

 

.362 BABIP (.306 career)

26.3% HR/FB (11.9%)

12.9% IF hit% (5.7%)

60.7 LOB% (69.2%)

 

Not to mention the disproportionate number of poor defensive plays that have occurred behind him.

 

I'm not saying he's been great, but the GB, FB, K and BB rates are more or less in line with career norms. He's been very unlucky. Based on underlying trends, I'd be much more concerned about Hughes going forward.

 

So how do you differentiate whether the difference is due to luck or due to loss of effectiveness? It's surely a combination of both, but Gibson has been pretty ineffective for the better part of a year and a half now. It's not just luck that he's regularly living on the wrong side of his already unimpressive career numbers.

[drjim]

 

Gibson, and Buxton, represent the total dysfunction of this team in developing their players.  If you look at their current pitching staff, just Gibson, Taylor Rogers, Tyler Duffy, and Mike Tonkin were developed within the Twins organization. That is it.  So, in the 6 years of futility and 90+ losses that gave us top of the order draft picks, the Twins have 4 marginal MLB pitchers drafted by the organization on the roster.  FOUR.  And it aint like any of these guys was rushed to the majors (Gibson was pushed, by the Twins standards a bit but that was because he had injuries).  They all moved through the system basically stepwise.

 

Buxton is a different case and it is baffling why he isn't performing even at a replacement level.  But, I am going to tell you the mistake the Twins made with Buxton.  They should have moved him up to the major leagues when he was 19 years old.  The major league team in 2013 was a 96 loss team so bringing up a minor league player wasn't going to cost them anything and they had 322 PA available for a no-body like Clete Thomas.  

 

Bringing Buxton up at the height of his confidence would have probably changed this story.  I have been saying this all along and Buxton is an exhibit of WHAT IS THE DOWN SIDE.  We would have lost more than 96 games?  We would have been deprived of the joy of watching Clete Thomas play CF?   That Buxton would have shown up ready for the major leagues????  Really.  At the MLB level this guy looks like he has never played the game before.  What good did those extra games in AA and AAA do for the kid?  Not a damn thing.

 

There is much to criticize about the Twins development, but neither of these strike me as all that convincing.

 

The total amount of players on the roster drafted by the team is actually pretty comparable to most teams around the league. But what has really killed the franchise during the last 6 years is they have been so bad at talent acquisition from means other than the draft. They were so mediocre in their trades, not much for free agent signings or waiver pickups, very few of the sign and flip type deals.

 

And for all the hot takes floating around about Buxton's development, I never thought I'd see that he wasn't rushed enough.

[Broker]

 

Maybe we can let our pitchers hit and DH for Buxton. Kidding.

Probably a good idea. In fact the pitchers might be a lot better.

[Mike Sixel]

 

There is much to criticize about the Twins development, but neither of these strike me as all that convincing.

 

The total amount of players on the roster drafted by the team is actually pretty comparable to most teams around the league. But what has really killed the franchise during the last 6 years is they have been so bad at talent acquisition from means other than the draft. They were so mediocre in their trades, not much for free agent signings or waiver pickups, very few of the sign and flip type deals.

 

And for all the hot takes floating around about Buxton's development, I never thought I'd see that he wasn't rushed enough.

 

Most teams have their best SP they developed internally be Kyle Gibson? He's pretty much been the only SP to last more than 2 years in, what, the last 5+ years?

 

 

Edited April 24, 2017 by Mike Sixel

[drjim]

 

Most teams have their best SP they developed internally be Kyle Gibson? He's pretty much been the only SP to last more than 2 years in, what, the last 5+ years?

 

A lot of teams have no internally developed starters.

 

For example, the most recent World Series Champion.

Edited April 24, 2017 by drjim

[Oldgoat_MN]

 

...
You would literally expect better from a random Single-A scrub thrown onto the big-league stage. From a player of such immense talent who posted an .880 OPS in the minors, it boggles the mind.

...

 

I think this line is correct and says a lot.

Once upon a time the Twins had a SS named Greg Gagne. Occasionally he would find himself hitting over .300 and would immediately go into a decline. While I am not a psychotherapist I always thought Gagne either felt he wasn't as good as his numbers were getting to be or he didn't 'deserve' to have that much success.

 

I am starting to feel the same way about Buck.

I think there is something wrong with his head.

[Mike Sixel]

 

A lot of teams have no internally developed starters.

 

For example, the most recent World Series Champion.

 

Huh, I had no idea no one developed their own starters.

 

Where do they all come from? Trades? We'll agree they've utterly failed at trades lately.

 

How can you see rosters and how players were acquired?

Edited April 24, 2017 by Mike Sixel

[Taildragger8791]

 

A lot of teams have no internally developed starters.

 

For example, the most recent World Series Champion.

That would make me more optimistic about the lack of promise in our pipeline if the Twins had a proven ability and desire to acquire pitchers from outside the organization. Because right now that's the only way this front office is going to get a league-average staff pulled together before the end of the decade.

[drjim]

Huh, I had no idea no one developed their own starters.

 

Where do they all come from? Trades? We'll agree they've utterly failed at trades lately.

 

How can you see rosters and how players were acquired?

I just use fangraphs and click through.

 

I did a quick and dirty search last year, average is less than 2 per team.

[Mike Sixel]

I'd forgotten about this (projections, not sure if they've done one where you see the actuals):

 

http://www.fangraphs.com/blogs/how-the-teams-were-built/

 

sort by trades, not pretty......note that while they have 15 drafted players in 2016, those 15 account for only 12.5 WAR (that's not a great ratio, btw).

 

 

[drjim]

That would make me more optimistic about the lack of promise in our pipeline if the Twins had a proven ability and desire to acquire pitchers from outside the organization. Because right now that's the only way this front office is going to get a league-average staff pulled together before the end of the decade.

Very fair, but the fact there is a new front office gives me some hope. They've started conservative, but I anticipate an aggressive push for talent acquisition over the next year and a half.

[drjim]

I'd forgotten about this (projections, not sure if they've done one where you see the actuals):

 

http://www.fangraphs.com/blogs/how-the-teams-were-built/

 

sort by trades, not pretty......note that while they have 15 drafted players in 2016, those 15 account for only 12.5 WAR (that's not a great ratio, btw).

And drafted players (in original org) will skew heavily towards everyday guys over starting pitchers.

[Brock Beauchamp]

 

I'd forgotten about this (projections, not sure if they've done one where you see the actuals):

 

http://www.fangraphs.com/blogs/how-the-teams-were-built/

 

sort by trades, not pretty......note that while they have 15 drafted players in 2016, those 15 account for only 12.5 WAR (that's not a great ratio, btw).

Yeah, that trade number is ugly.

 

I'd like to see the 2017 numbers. I'd expect the Twins amateur draft and international signings should look a fair amount better.