Article: Spring Backward

[Nick Nelson]

One of the biggest reasons for positivity coming out of spring training was the fact that two players hugely critical to the Twins' success were on top of their games, seemingly poised to take big steps forward and help lead the team's turnaround.

 

But since coming north, both players have seen their play go south, and now they've become perhaps Minnesota's two greatest sources of concern during an 8-10 start.We all know that spring exhibition statistics are to be taken with a grain of salt. But certain traits, developments and observable trends can provide valid reasons for optimism and belief. Byron Buxton and Kyle Gibson were exhibiting all of them throughout the month of March. The drop-off that both these key pieces experienced as soon as the games started mattering have left the Twins reeling, and searching futilely for answers.

 

Buxton's spring was an extension of his breakthrough September in 2016. Once again, the young outfielder was flashing visible confidence, regularly connecting with good pitches and putting together solid at-bats. His performance was impressive enough to convince Paul Molitor that Buxton was ready to bat third in the lineup.

 

But in April, the self-assured hitter who finished last season on a blistering hot streak and piled up a team-leading 10 extra-base hits in the ensuing spring has inexplicably gone amiss. Buxton looks as timid and clueless in the box as he did as a green MLB newcomer, if not more so. With each horrendous plate appearance, the issues only seem to further compound and snowball.

 

The strategy of letting him try to fight through his struggles is yielding no discernible progress. Although the strikeouts have subsided somewhat, Buxton continues to be an exceedingly easy out, with mediocre or worse pitchers consistently having their way. In his first nine games he went 3-for-34. In eight games since, he's 3-for-31. According to FanGraphs, only one ball put in play this year by Buxton has qualified as a line drive. His 47 percent K-rate is 12 points higher than MLB pitchers have produced at the plate.

 

You would literally expect better from a random Single-A scrub thrown onto the big-league stage. From a player of such immense talent who posted an .880 OPS in the minors, it boggles the mind. And considering Buxton's monumental importance to the franchise, it's a highly disquieting dilemma.

 

Gibson isn't as vital to Minnesota's big-picture outlook, but he is quite crucial in the short-term. With all the question marks that surrounded (and continue to surround) Phil Hughes as well as the fifth starter spot, the Twins badly needed the veteran righty to rebound and join Ervin Santana as a reliable asset atop the rotation.

 

Gibson showed every sign of doing so in camp, with an authoritative presence on the mound carrying more relevance than his stellar numbers. Throughout spring competition, Gibson worked ahead in counts, snapped off nasty sliders and cruised through efficient outings. When batters made contact, they were hitting everything into the ground. He was executing his gameplans to a tee. Utilizing altered mechanics, Gibson reported feeling as good as he has in a long time.

 

But that version of the 29-year-old has vanished in four regular-season starts. All of the deepest flaws that held him down during a challenging 2016 campaign have been frustrating mainstays. Gibson's command has been terrible and his outings have routinely unraveled at the the first sign of trouble. Things reached a new low on Sunday when Gibson endured the worst start of his career before horrified home fans at Target Field. An eight-run shellacking at the hands of Detroit left him 0-3 with a 9.00 ERA, and leaves the Twins contemplating a demotion to the bullpen or even the minors.

 

Ultimately, removing Buxton or Gibson may prove necessary but won't do much to brighten the team's fortunes.

 

In the outfield, they lack compelling alternatives for Buxton, and almost any reconfiguration that takes him out of the picture will dramatically reduce the unit's defensive aptitude, diminishing one of the roster's only clear strengths.

 

In the rotation, the Twins are already seeking to fill another vacancy following the demotion of Adalberto Mejia, and Hughes has done little to establish himself as any kind of stable presence. Minnesota desperately needs Gibson to figure it out, though patience is wearing thin and with good reason.

 

In both cases, it seems clear that the ability and tools are inherently there to get the job done. What's holding them back? Why are these two critical cogs so profoundly overmatched? Where has the sharpness and confidence they exuded throughout the spring ramp-up period gone?

 

And if those elements don't return soon, at least to some extent, what in the world are the Twins to do?

 

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[jun]

D Santana and Pressly should be demoted before Buxton and Gibson.

[mickeymental]

both slumps are profound. is it too much to ask that they'd each have taken over at least one game by now? the twins would be 10-8 and the flock would mostly be happy.

 

i see where greg bird is hitting .103 in 51 plate appearances for the yanks. good thing the twins have too many 1b types -- or they might be tempted to trigger a buxton-for-bird trade. (i'd still bet on buxton.)

[Platoon]

Buxtons problem is in his head. It may have happened anyway, but only a fool would have taken someone this young, with limited MLB success and stuck him in the three hole. (Or someone hoping to save his job) The last thing BB needed was added pressure. That said he is in the unique position of being a player who has to be allowed to work it out here. His history is that no matter what level he moves to, he struggles, and then denominates. Hopefully this will continue. Because even allowing for the miserable pitching, if he doesn't pan out, this franchise is in serious trouble. This is Buxton and Sanos team now. They either make it or we look at 5 more years of an abyss.

[Blackjack]

 

Buxtons problem is in his head. It may have happened anyway, but only a fool would have taken someone this young, with limited MLB success and stuck him in the three hole. (Or someone hoping to save his job) The last thing BB needed was added pressure. That said he is in the unique position of being a player who has to be allowed to work it out here. His history is that no matter what level he moves to, he struggles, and then denominates. Hopefully this will continue. Because even allowing for the miserable pitching, if he doesn't pan out, this franchise is in serious trouble. This is Buxton and Sanos team now. They either make it or we look at 5 more years of an abyss.

Not going to give you a 'like' because I don't like it, but I agree with you.

 

Give Buxton a couple more weeks, if he doesn't show some improvement, they need to ship him back to Rochester, to gain some confidence and get his stroke back.

 

I'd give Gibson one more start, if its as bad as the others, off to Rochester if the they think he can still make it as a starter, or else into the bullpen.

[drjim]

I think that beyond these two, an argument can be made that everyone else is performing within expectations.

 

Gibson is much more shocking at this point.

[ToddlerHarmon]

Buxton's struggles make me wonder something about spring pitching: we all know velocity doesn't max out until after spring training, but what about sharpness of breaking pitches? Is this the first time this year Buxton is seeing pitches like this? If the answer is yes, we have to wonder whether he is permanently overmatched.

[Han Joelo]

Nice perspective, I guess, in that these are two guys who have talent and seem to be have more trouble with the mental side of the game.  Thinking to much, and hurting the team.  Confidence is hard to quantify.

 

The more I've seen of Buxton, the more I don't think anybody has ruined or rushed him.  I'd say Molitor recognized Buxton's unique psychology, and hitting him 3rd had as good a chance to help as any where else would have.  He honestly needs to hit rock bottom at the plate.  Which, my God, he seems to have done.  But that is the conundrum of rock bottoms.

 

I expect him to come up at some point, fall behind 0-2, and finally get angry.  Maybe break a bat in between swings.  And then he'll nail one and it will be game on.  Or maybe Levine can make a deal with the Rangers--we'll let you blow us out, if you'll send up a pitcher and have him throw batting practice to Buxton.

 

As for Gibson...I feel betrayed.

[peterb18]

In Buxton's case it could a matter of the old adage...." He couldn't hit the curve ball".

Before advanced analytics how many times have we heard this statement over the years.

Compare Buxton to Robbie Grossman.....Robbie has a real feel for hitting and bat control

whereas Buxton doesn't. It's possible Buxton could find the stroke but most likely not.

It's almost like putting in golf or scoring goals in hockey....some have a better feel than others. Let's hope it works out!

 

[beckmt]

I have long held Gibson is not a major league pitcher, or if he is it will not be here, which should bring a change in pitching coaching and philosophy. It is possible that  Gibson just needs a fresh start somewhere else, he is too much a head case to remain here. I am starting to agree with this and think a trade to a club that needs starting pitching for a class A lottery ticket may be the only answer.  If free fall continues over the next two weeks, this may all become moot, as the Twins will start selling off pieces for prospects and bringing up the better minor leaguers.  This would have been my course at the start of the year.

[mazeville]

Boy, for the longest time, Gibson was considered the great hope of the Twins' minor leagues, at least in terms of pitching prospects. But he hasn't done all that much to distinguish himself, at least for the past couple of years.

 

That said, I was at the game yesterday, and I thought that the defense was particularly problematic. Danny Santana, who should not be on the roster, dropped a fly ball. Dozier missed a grounder. A few others managed to get by players. Fly ball to center that Byron Buxton almost certainly catches fell for a hit. Jason Castro allowed a passed ball and then threw the ball into right field. It was ugly.

[mikelink45]

I put this up on another essay in TD, but I feel it belongs here:

 

Kyle Gibson - fifth year - record - 32-41 4.72 era 1.42 whip.  His third year was good, his trend is not. -0.4 WAR for his career.  Mejia did not deserve to stay up on a good club, on this club he was outperforming Gibson and we need to try something new.  Of course I want Berrios, but based on the luck Twins have in bringing up their superstar MiLB players and converting them to MLB my expectations remain low.

 

http://www.baseball-reference.com/players/g/gibsoky01.shtml

 

I would love to see Gibson prosper, but I am getting the sense that he has peaked and as our #3 rotation guy we are hurting.  

 

Of course the question is - beyond Berrios, who is ready to make the jump, especially in this organization that seems to have a "Wall" between MiLB and MLB and we have not done well at getting players over it.

 

I have tried to look at comparable statistical starts to see how Buxton compares.   Since we have touted him as a superstar I looked at the worst starts of HOF careers and found this article:

 

http://www.azsnakepit.com/2012/4/11/2938842/worst-starts-to-hall-of-fame-careers-cooperstown

 

Even though the WAR figures are the same for Buxton and the worst of the starts - Brooks Robinson, the batting lines are so far apart that Buxton would have to start a new category of his own.  

 

Is he pressing?  Is he unconcerned?  Who is working with him?  This is painful to watch. 

[MN_ExPat]

Baseball is ninety percent mental, the other half is physical.

- Yogi Berra

 

Baseball is a simple game, hit the ball, throw the ball, catch the ball.   This is also what makes is exceptionally difficult.  The simple things are never easy.   Any of use who have played the game,  or have children who play the game (or both) know this.  

 

Gibson... he has the physical tools to at a minimum, compete at the MLB level. 

Buxton... he has the physical tools to flat out dominate at the MLB level.

 

Both players would not be here if they didn't have the tools to compete. 

 

I'm not defending the poor performances, far from it... but before some of you let your vitriolic hate flow and call them garbage or a waste of space, just remember this:

 

They and other players are someone's child, brother, best friend, etc.    How would you feel if that was your son out there?

[brvama]

As Yogi said, "Baseball is 90% mental and the other half is physical."

 

Both have the ability to produce and have not except in spurts. Somehow they need to find that chip on their shoulder. I agree with Han on Buxton. However, if I were manager I'd sit him for a week and let him stew, except for a defensive sub if really needed. I'd tell him that he has all the tools to succeed and he needs to grow a pair and to figure it out with no one's coaching other than a therapist. He has to get back at playing baseball and forget about performing.

 

For Gibson, I'd tell him about the same, only in a much sterner manner. Actually, someone needs to piss him off. I even thought that the next blow up on the mound I'd go out there and tell him, "This is your mess so effin clean it up, because next time I come out here, you're gone. And remember the others on the field are waiting for you to do your job. So damnit, do it!"

 

At least that's what I feel like doing.

[Mike Sixel]

Buxton ..... I got no idea how to fix the young man. but if he's not great, this team is in serious trouble. Very serious.

 

Gibson....I thought he'd be a 3/4 this year, but alas, he looks more like a 6 right now. Of course, the defense was atrocious yesterday. Why DanSan remains on the roster is a mystery.

Edited April 24, 2017 by Mike Sixel

[Brock Beauchamp]

 

Buxton ..... I got no idea how to fix the young man. but if he's not great, this team is in serious trouble. Very serious.

I don't know if it's that extreme. Buxton needs to be acceptable. Good would be better. Excellent is a luxury.

 

With guys like Kepler and Polanco stepping forward this season, the importance of Buxton's bat diminishes a bit.

 

But he can't be bad and certainly not as bad as he has been thus far.

[Mike Sixel]

 

I don't know if it's that extreme. Buxton needs to be acceptable. Good would be better. Excellent is a luxury.

 

With guys like Kepler and Polanco stepping forward this season, the importance of Buxton's bat diminishes a bit.

 

But he can't be bad and certainly not as bad as he has been thus far.

 

given they have no pitching, imo, they need great hitters. And, when I say great, I was including defense, so good hitting would be just fine to make him great.

 

Polanco is doing exactly what many of us expected, and is why many of us believed a successful off season would include a Dozier trade.

[Brock Beauchamp]

 

given they have no pitching, imo, they need great hitters. And, when I say great, I was including defense, so good hitting would be just fine to make him great.

 

Polanco is doing exactly what many of us expected, and is why many of us believed a successful off season would include a Dozier trade.

Polanco was my sleeper this season so I was pretty bullish on the guy. I expected him to hit but I wasn't sure he'd be a competent shortstop.

 

As for Buxton, yeah, if you're including defense the scale slides considerably. If he's a decent hitter with great defense, he's a very good player.

[glanzer]

Do the Twins employ a team psychiatrist?  It certainly seems both players' issues could be helped by talking to a professional mental health expert.  It's pretty clear in both cases this is a confidence issue.

[messed up]

I'd like to see the stats for Gibson pitching in cold weather and when the temps are warmer.   I don't know what they are but if memory serves me well it has seemed he has pitched much better in warmer weather and his k rate per nine goes up as well

 

[bird]

As far as buzzkills go, Buxton's struggles stand alone. In order of magnitude, a reversal in direction of these are things would turn around my own spirits: Buxton figuring it out at least to an acceptable level at the plate, Berrios holding his own in MLB, Fernando Romero having another promising season, Gonsalves regaining his health, Lewis Thorpe looking like he's back, Gordon keeping it up, and hauls at the trade deadline for two or more vets.

 

I already am a believer in Kepler, Sano, and Polanco. I just don't care about Gibson or Hughes. I take those days off from baseball generally.

[Mike Sixel]

 

I'd like to see the stats for Gibson pitching in cold weather and when the temps are warmer.   I don't know what they are but if memory serves me well it has seemed he has pitched much better in warmer weather and his k rate per nine goes up as well

 

too bad they play in April and September.

[Mike Sixel]

 

As far as buzzkills go, Buxton's struggles stand alone. In order of magnitude, a reversal in direction of these are things would turn around my own spirits: Buxton figuring it out at least to an acceptable level at the plate, Berrios holding his own in MLB, Fernando Romero having another promising season, Gonsalves regaining his health, Lewis Thorpe looking like he's back, Gordon keeping it up, and hauls at the trade deadline for two or more vets.

 

I already am a believer in Kepler, Sano, and Polanco. I just don't care about Gibson or Hughes. I take those days off from baseball generally.

 

I'm on a similar page.

[drjim]

 

As far as buzzkills go, Buxton's struggles stand alone. In order of magnitude, a reversal in direction of these are things would turn around my own spirits: Buxton figuring it out at least to an acceptable level at the plate, Berrios holding his own in MLB, Fernando Romero having another promising season, Gonsalves regaining his health, Lewis Thorpe looking like he's back, Gordon keeping it up, and hauls at the trade deadline for two or more vets.

 

I already am a believer in Kepler, Sano, and Polanco. I just don't care about Gibson or Hughes. I take those days off from baseball generally.

 

Good list. I'd add some combo of Chargois/Burdi/Melotakis come up and pitch well.

 

I'm more shocked in the short term by Gibson's collapse, but definitely agree that Buxton is in a class of his own for overall buzzkill.

[Dr. Evil]

Maybe we can let our pitchers hit and DH for Buxton. Kidding.

[bird]

Chargois/Burdi/Melo is a good add to a wish list.

Edited April 24, 2017 by birdwatcher

[Blackjack]

 

 

 

but definitely agree that Buxton is in a class of his own for overall buzzkill.

I was going to stop reading some of the comments on the articles because they're such a buzzkill, they make me not even want to pay attention to the Twins -- and here I am reading them....  Bad Zoot!!!!

 

Anybody know any good fishing or food plot forums??

[yarnivek1972]

 

I'd like to see the stats for Gibson pitching in cold weather and when the temps are warmer.   I don't know what they are but if memory serves me well it has seemed he has pitched much better in warmer weather and his k rate per nine goes up as well

March/April is one of his worst months.  He has a career 5.76 ERA and a career .816 opponent's OPS.  However, his actual worst month is August (5.91, .853) , so that kinda shoots that theory to pieces

 

As for the notion that he might be better as a reliever, some have suggested it, his worst inning is the first inning (.810 OPS) other than the 9th, in which he has pitched just once in his career.  Also, the second time he faces hitters in a game his OPS is .827.  That sounds like it might support an argument for the pen.  But then you look at the first time through and it is .719.  That's still not very good.  To me it comes down to him simply being unable to execute the pitches he needs to make.  He KNOWS he has to keep the ball down to have any chance.  He just. can't. do it.  Not consistently anyway.  

 

I'm looking back at his game log from 2015 because it is undeniable that he was consistently terrible in 2016. He had a smattering of good starts, but by and large 2016 was a disaster for him. He was pretty bad in the second half of 2015.  From July 21 to the end of the year, Gibson made 14 starts.  He failed to complete 6 innings in half of them.  He gave up 5 earned runs or more in 5 of them.  His ERA coming into July 21 was an excellent 2.85.  By the end of the season it was 3.84, up a full run.

 

So, my Minnesota High School Math skills are saying that's 9 1/2 months of largely terrible pitching by Gibson covering more than 40 starts.  How much more do his defenders need to see before they are ready to cut bait?

 

The definition of insanity is doing something over and over again and expecting a different result.  Allowing Gibson to continue to start and expecting him to do well is therefore insane.

[djvang]

 

Not going to give you a 'like' because I don't like it, but I agree with you.

 

Give Buxton a couple more weeks, if he doesn't show some improvement, they need to ship him back to Rochester, to gain some confidence and get his stroke back.

 

I'd give Gibson one more start, if its as bad as the others, off to Rochester if the they think he can still make it as a starter, or else into the bullpen.

I keep hearing that Buxton's "stroke" is the problem. That his swing is too long to succeed in the majors. If that's true, why didn't they notice that and correct it while he was in the minors?

[Vanimal46]

Gibson is the Alexi Casilla of pitching... He showed he could be a decent pitcher over a 3-4 month sample, and we've been chasing that success ever since... He's had a long leash here since there hasn't been anything better to challenge his status in the rotation. Time is running out with him in this organization.