Hicks for Murphy trade: 14 months later

[DaveW]

Its 22 at-bats. 22. He's done this before. July 5-July 12, 2015. July 24-July 30, 2015.

31 PA, those walks count for his high OBP fwiw

[DaveW]

No, but a fun thread nonetheless! It was after a two or three game hot streak Hicks had, Dave jumped on to say the same thing. I just can't find it.

So that post made April 16th is fine when he started out slow, but people say my thread April 17th when he started out white out is wrong?

 

Hmm

[Thrylos]

This is more of a Dustan Mohr for J.T. Thomas trade to me; i.e. marginally relevant to the future of either team.

[Mike Sixel]

 

This is more of a Dustan Mohr for J.T. Thomas trade to me; i.e. marginally relevant to the future of either team.

 

I generally agree, except it kept them from getting a good catcher last year, since they clearly thought JRM was that. Luckily, the guy I kept pushing them to trade for is now here...

[Thrylos]

 

I generally agree, except it kept them from getting a good catcher last year, since they clearly thought JRM was that. Luckily, the guy I kept pushing them to trade for is now here...

 

They thought that Suzuki was that.  He was the guy who they overpay to extend...  Murphy was projected as the backup and/or future catcher

[gunnarthor]

 

Regardless of the Hicks side of the equation... what the heck happened to Murphy?  Off to a 1-for-18 start at AAA now too.  Only 3 K's, but he's become a low-BABIP machine since coming to Minnesota.  Even in his AAA stint last year, he only had a .274 BABIP en route to a 72 wRC+.  That's below what many were saying was his MLB floor (~85 wRC+) when we acquired him.

Maybe his swing was protected by the hitting environment at Yankee field?  

[TheLeviathan]

 

So that post made April 16th is fine when he started out slow, but people say my thread April 17th when he started out white out is wrong?

Hmm

 

Saying "He's off to a nice start" is not the same as "Oops!  We goofed on that trade!"

 

Hicks has had a couple nice days so far this year.  Good for him.

[Otto von Ballpark]

 

Its 22 at-bats.  22.  He's done this before.  July 5-July 12, 2015.  July 24-July 30, 2015.

Obviously it's still a very small sample, but it is interesting that his current run isn't being driven by BABIP.  Actually his BABIP so far this year is a very low .235.  Compared to those two stretches you reference, where his BABIPs were .400 and .611, respectively.  Yeah, he won't keep walking at a 25% clip or posting an ISO of .455 either, but it's worth noting he didn't just rack up a few extra singles.

 

FWW, from August 1st until the end of the season last year, Hicks had a 105 wRC+ on a league-average .300 BABIP too.  His big Twins month (July 2015) was a .365 BABIP.

 

Hicks and Murphy were both useful hitters in limited samples prior to the trade, and both got bit by the low BABIP and low ISO bugs immediately after the trade, but Hicks seems to have recovered after a few months while Murphy has not.  Not that it is necessarily permanent for Hicks, but if he can alternate good performances and poor ones, that can still be a useful player and a step above Murphy currently.

[Brock Beauchamp]

Time will tell. 1.257 ops isn't a fluke IMO.

 

Dude looks great at the plate, seen nearly half of his at bats thus far (and witnessed his bomb in person last night at the game)

Dude. Just a few days ago, you were talking about Grossman's SSS and how his ISO would normalize.

 

Except Grossman has been a good hitter for over 400 consecutive plate appearances.

[Doomtints]

 

Dude. Just a few days ago, you were talking about Grossman's SSS and how his ISO would normalize.

Except Grossman has been a good hitter for over 400 consecutive plate appearances.

 

Plus, 1200+ OPS is *always* a fluke.

[Brock Beauchamp]

 

Plus, 1200+ OPS is *always* a fluke.

Especially when coupled with Hicks' history and his 30% swing rate.

[Otto von Ballpark]

 

Maybe his swing was protected by the hitting environment at Yankee field?  

Even Murphy's AAA numbers with the Yankees weren't that bad, though.  Eyeballing it, he was around a .295 BABIP and a .157 ISO over 453 PA across two seasons in AAA for the Yankees, in his age 22-23 seasons.  That has nothing to do with Yankee Stadium.

 

Since he came to Minnesota, .175 BABIP and .073 ISO in MLB, and .264 BABIP and .082 ISO in AAA, turning 26 next month.

[Brock Beauchamp]

Yeah, Murphy's complete and utter implosion is bizarre.

 

Even if you think the trade was a bad idea, there was no reason to expect Murphy to devolve into a .300 OPS player after cruising through MiLB and MLB with decent numbers.

 

When the trade happened, the real question to me was whether Murphy was a .650 or .700 OPS player, not whether he would spiral into posting ISO numbers lower than Byron Buxton's batting average.

[Mike Sixel]

 

Yeah, Murphy's complete and utter implosion is bizarre.

 

Even if you think the trade was a bad idea, there was no reason to expect Murphy to devolve into a .300 OPS player after cruising through MiLB and MLB with decent numbers.

 

Looks like Hicks', and Buxton's implosions.....all top prospects. The Twins can't afford this kind of "development" from top draft picks.

[Brock Beauchamp]

 

Looks like Hicks', and Buxton's implosions.....all top prospects. The Twins can't afford this kind of "development" from top draft picks.

Definitely. The Murphy situation makes the organization look bad in pretty much every way possible.

[Brandon Warne]

 

You know why you're bitching is so incredible Dave?  You didn't bother with it last year when Hicks sucked.  You waited until he had a hot couple days and a tough Twins loss to post your BS.

 

Yes, the Twins had to trade Hicks.  He was blocking Buxton.  Moving him to a fourth OFer role - with Sano, Kelper, Buxton, Rosario, Arcia and Santana all ahead of him on the depth chart - was not realistic.  Instead they could trade him away and help at a position of weakness. 

 

I'm not totally sure about this. I think Hicks is better than or at least has the tools to be better than Rosario, Arcia and Santana. 

[gunnarthor]

 

I'm not totally sure about this. I think Hicks is better than or at least has the tools to be better than Rosario, Arcia and Santana. 

Maybe, maybe not but that's pretty clearly where he was on the Twins depth chart.  

[Taildragger8791]

 

Yeah, Murphy's complete and utter implosion is bizarre.

 

Even if you think the trade was a bad idea, there was no reason to expect Murphy to devolve into a .300 OPS player after cruising through MiLB and MLB with decent numbers.

 

When the trade happened, the real question to me was whether Murphy was a .650 or .700 OPS player, not whether he would spiral into posting ISO numbers lower than Byron Buxton's batting average.

 

The implosion is certainly bizarre and the magnitude of the drop-off couldn't have been expected. But the severity of the drop-off also makes me believe there were some sort of critical flaws or warning signs that went overlooked in the Twins' evaluation of him. There's a reason the Yankees were giving him away. You'd hope that good scouting could reveal some of those reasons.

 

I also accept that it's an inexact science and there's an information imbalance with the team that has the player and the team that is getting him. And sometimes sh*t just happens. I just wish it didn't seem like we were piling up more than our fair share of sh*t lately.

[howieramone2]

Depth is a good thing. We will hear from Murphy in the future. He spent parts of 3 seasons with the Yanks and Hicks was easy to replace. Catching is certainly not the black hole it once was and he is still young enough.

[Richie the Rally Goat]

Would you trade Aaron Hicks for Danny Santana?

 

I thought so.

 

Because Aaron Hicks would look pretty good right now as a fourth OFer.

It was a terrible trade then, its a terrible trade now, and it'll be a terrible trade next year. You don't give up a player with Hicks' tools for a backup catcher (who can't even win THAT job), ever.

would i have traded Danny Santana for a AAA catcher? Heck yes

 

Sure, I'd take Hicks over DanSan, but the catcher situation was dire at the time.

 

While DanSan is terrible 4th outfielder is currently mismanaged. All three of the starters can play CF so the 4th OF needs to be a bench bat. This has nothing to do with AH trade.

[Shaitan]

If we'd kept Hicks, he'd also always live under the umbrella of "1st round pick," which means nothing in NY.

 

In retrospect it's easy to say he'd be a solid 4th OF, but nobody in MN wants to see that of their former first round pick. See the many Tyler Jay conversations.

 

[KirbyDome89]

 

There is hot fire everywhere I look in here....

 

 

[mickeymental]

there's still time to turn hicksie into a pitcher.

[Taildragger8791]

 

If we'd kept Hicks, he'd also always live under the umbrella of "1st round pick," which means nothing in NY.

 

In retrospect it's easy to say he'd be a solid 4th OF, but nobody in MN wants to see that of their former first round pick. See the many Tyler Jay conversations.

 

I don't think the two situations really compare. There's a little less (although definitely still some) heartburn involved when a promising mid-1st round pick peters out at the level of a part-time player. Jay was the 6th overall pick and 2nd overall pitcher, and from day 1 had the likely ceiling of being a reliever. While both are useful players, the latter situation is (for good reason) seen as having left a lot more upside on the table by never even giving yourself a real chance at an impact player.

[Richie the Rally Goat]

I do give Dave credit, he starts some of the best conversations. Lots of debate, lots of passion.

 

In this case, I don't really get it. I don't get the hate for JRM, or the love for Hicks. Both have been pretty poor here, so is it really a trade issue? or is it a coaching/development issue?

[Mr. Brooks]

I'd rather have Hicks than Murphy.

And I said that at the time of the trade too.

Murphy's tools just didn't match up with his production for NY.

I'm not going to get too worked up over it though.

 

Also, I don't think we need a 4th outfielder. I think we have one in Rosario. We need a starting left fielder.

[DaveW]

Especially when coupled with Hicks' history and his 30% swing rate.

Hicks had a 98 ops+ 2015 and a 102 ops+ the second half of last year. He's a better hitter than you give him credit for, but keep bringing up his swing rate out of context brock. I know it's your New found favorite stat and all...

[DaveW]

Dude. Just a few days ago, you were talking about Grossman's SSS and how his ISO would normalize.

 

Except Grossman has been a good hitter for over 400 consecutive plate appearances.

Hicks is a plus plus defender, has 20-25 hr pop potentially and has speed as well. Grossman is a disaster in the OF and is a DH type. Grossman needs to have a .780+ ops to be worthwhile as a DH. Hicks needs a .720 OPS to be a nice asset to his team, and a .780 ops makes him a 3-4 WAR player with his D and speed.

[Brock Beauchamp]

Hicks is a plus plus defender, has 20-25 hr pop potentially and has speed as well. Grossman is a disaster in the OF and is a DH type. Grossman needs to have a .780+ ops to be worthwhile as a DH. Hicks needs a .720 OPS to be a nice asset to his team, and a .780 ops makes him a 3-4 WAR player with his D and speed.

That wasn't my point. You're all up on Hicks based on a hot week and relatively down on Grossman, despite him being good for around 3/4 of a season.

 

And if you don't think 31 PAs with a 30% swing rate is an issue, I'm not sure what to say.

[DaveW]

That wasn't my point. You're all up on Hicks based on a hot week and relatively down on Grossman, despite him being good for close to 3/4 of a season.

 

And if you don't think 31 PAs with a 30% swing rate is an issue, I'm not sure what to say.

Well he has walked 9 times. Was he supposed to swing at a bunch of ****ty pitches?

 

Also I'm not so much up on hicks as I am down (and always have been!!!!) about trading him straight up for the back up catcher best case scenario Murphy. I said it then and I say it now. Terrible trade, period, dot com, dot org, end of story