Hicks for Murphy trade: 14 months later

[kab21]

If Buxton follows the path of Gomez and Hicks (two comparable toolsy CF'ers) then the Twins will only need to wait 4 more years (age 27) for Buxton to be great. We should also expect Buxton to be traded around 2020 (1-2 years before the breakout). Fun.

[jimbo92107]

If you're a Yankees outfielder, you'd best smash baseballs very hard. No more wimpy Twins all-field contact hitting, which was stifling Hicks's natural power development. Their message was clear: Drive towards the pitcher and hit the ball hard, or hit the road. I couldn't be happier for Aaron Hicks. 

[DaveW]

Hicks already with 2.9 WAR on the season

 

Still batting .300

Ops has dipped a bit, but .957 is pretty "good"

 

On pace for 25 bombs

20 SB

 

Probably should make the all star game as well.

[Han Joelo]

Hicks last 30 games:  261/344/441/(782)

Buxton:                       253/304/347/(655)

Hicks last 10 games:  194/310/278/(588)

Buxton:                        258/343/387(730)

 

Last 20 games since a 4/5, 3-2B, 6 rbi game on June 1:  .220 BA, 6 2B, 3 HR (2 in one game)

 

Sorry, no fancy graph, but I think you can imagine what it looks like.  Ships passing in the night.

 

 

If you have Hicks on your fantasy team or profile, you might think about selling. 

[DaveW]

 

  On 6/24/2017 at 7:50 PM, Han Joelo said:

Hicks last 30 games:  261/344/441/(782)

Buxton:                       253/304/347/(655)

Hicks last 10 games:  194/310/278/(588)

Buxton:                        258/343/387(730)

 

Last 20 games since a 4/5, 3-2B, 6 rbi game on June 1:  .220 BA, 6 2B, 3 HR (2 in one game)

 

Sorry, no fancy graph, but I think you can imagine what it looks like.  Ships passing in the night.

 

 

If you have Hicks on your fantasy team or profile, you might think about selling. 

,782 OPS and gold glover caliber CF defense is still a lot better then what the Twins got for him tbh

If they had him in LF instead of Rosario for instance, they would still be in first place.

I think Hicks ultimately is about a .830 OPS guy, amazing CF defense, 25 HR and 20 SB a year person.

(basically 4.0-5.0 WAR a year moving fwd)

[JustinCB]

  On 6/24/2017 at 11:30 PM, DaveW said:

,782 OPS and gold glover caliber CF defense is still a lot better then what the Twins got for him tbh

If they had him in LF instead of Rosario for instance, they would still be in first place.

I think Hicks ultimately is about a .830 OPS guy, amazing CF defense, 25 HR and 20 SB a year person.

(basically 4.0-5.0 WAR a year moving fwd)

I would take that bet

[Han Joelo]

 

  On 6/24/2017 at 11:30 PM, DaveW said:

,782 OPS and gold glover caliber CF defense is still a lot better then what the Twins got for him tbh

If they had him in LF instead of Rosario for instance, they would still be in first place.

I think Hicks ultimately is about a .830 OPS guy, amazing CF defense, 25 HR and 20 SB a year person.

(basically 4.0-5.0 WAR a year moving fwd)

I hope he averages out to that! (Or better; why not--except he's a Yankee)  No denying that trade was a failed challenge.

[h2oface]

I miss having Hicks on this team. I don't like that Garver is having to play so much left field so Murphy has a place to be. I hated this trade then, and hate it even more, now, but it is what it is. It took a year in another org, for Hicks, and it took a couple years in another org for Gomez..... advanced stat-ers tried to say both couldn't get better, but that is the problem with some stat based predictions. They can't make people not get better. Good on the Yankees for seeing what our guys couldn't. 

[JustinCB]

Aaron Hicks (7/27) .290 BA, .398 OBP, .515 SLG, .913 OPS, also injured til mid-august.  

 

Not that the twins would not take this right now.  but SHOCKINGLY!  coming back down to career norms quick.

[Otto von Ballpark]

Hey, he's going to carry an above .900 OPS into August.

[Doomtints]

 

  On 7/27/2017 at 6:14 PM, spycake said:

Hey, he's going to carry an above .900 OPS into August.

 

Being out the past 5 weeks probably helped that more than anything.

[Otto von Ballpark]

  On 7/31/2017 at 12:25 AM, Doomtints said:

Being out the past 5 weeks probably helped that more than anything.

= joke!

 

[SwainZag]

Hicks has struggled pretty bad since coming off the DL to the tune of .156/.269/.333 in 45 AB.

 

Season line down to .265/.375/.482/.857

 

To quote Dave from June, "If they had him in LF instead of Rosario for instance, they would still be in first place."

 

For Comparison:  Rosario: .300/.340/.505/.845

 

Is this still the case?

 

[Taildragger8791]

 

  On 8/22/2017 at 6:08 PM, SwainZag said:

Hicks has struggled pretty bad since coming off the DL to the tune of .156/.269/.333 in 45 AB.

 

Season line down to .265/.375/.482/.857

 

To quote Dave from June, "If they had him in LF instead of Rosario for instance, they would still be in first place."

 

For Comparison:  Rosario: .300/.340/.505/.845

 

Is this still the case?

 

I don't think 11 games after returning from a long DL stint is really the best time to be making judgements about a player. He had a 5-game run in there that was actually pretty good, and now a 5-game run that isn't. That's the shortest of short sample sizes. He hit very well for almost 3 full months before getting hurt. If he goes back to hitting well again then I don't see how you could honestly argue he wouldn't be a valuable addition to this team's outfield depth.

[SwainZag]

 

  On 8/22/2017 at 6:29 PM, Taildragger8791 said:

I don't think 11 games after returning from a long DL stint is really the best time to be making judgements about a player. He had a 5-game run in there that was actually pretty good, and now a 5-game run that isn't. That's the shortest of short sample sizes. He hit very well for almost 3 full months before getting hurt. If he goes back to hitting well again then I don't see how you could honestly argue he wouldn't be a valuable addition to this team's outfield depth.

 

I don't recalling saying that he wouldn't be valuable to this team's outfield depth. Just a simple update of this thread.

[Taildragger8791]

 

  On 8/22/2017 at 6:49 PM, SwainZag said:

I don't recalling saying that he wouldn't be valuable to this team's outfield depth. Just a simple update of this thread.

 

Sure didn't seem like a simple update. For some reason you were asking a leading question based on an insignificantly short sample size to make a point that you think Hicks stinks again. Came off like a cheap shot.

[jkcarew]

 

  On 8/22/2017 at 6:29 PM, Taildragger8791 said:

I don't think 11 games after returning from a long DL stint is really the best time to be making judgements about a player. He had a 5-game run in there that was actually pretty good, and now a 5-game run that isn't. That's the shortest of short sample sizes. He hit very well for almost 3 full months before getting hurt. If he goes back to hitting well again then I don't see how you could honestly argue he wouldn't be a valuable addition to this team's outfield depth.

It's probably fair to say that the Rosario-Hicks comparison has become much more debatable than it appeared in June.  Meanwhile, I think we can all agree that, based on player value, this was an atrocious trade.  Sometimes the swing and miss on value projection is so complete that whatever other justifications/considerations existed, they don't matter.  It was just a god awful trade.

[SwainZag]

 

  On 8/22/2017 at 7:07 PM, Taildragger8791 said:

Sure didn't seem like a simple update. For some reason you were asking a leading question based on an insignificantly short sample size to make a point that you think Hicks stinks again. Came off like a cheap shot.

 

It was more of a point of...it's a long season, let's not anoint Hicks the next HOF inductee before the end of June.  But take it how you want.  

[mickeymental]

at this point maybe the real comparison should be hicks versus gabriel moya, who the twins got for jrm. moya, according to baseball reference, is a 22-year-old lefty who has pitched in 43 aa games this year. in 52.2 innings, he's given up 27 hits with 82 strikeouts, 14 walks and a 0.85 era.

[Taildragger8791]

 

  On 8/22/2017 at 7:12 PM, SwainZag said:

It was more of a point of...it's a long season, let's not anoint Hicks the next HOF inductee before the end of June.  But take it how you want.  

 

Nobody suggested anything close to HoF, and throwing out strawman points like that doesn't contribute anything. You're arguing against your own made-up hyperbolic statement.

 

What I saw was posters frustrated that Hicks finally seemed to turn a corner  and become a valuable baseball player while our trade return was an instant objective failure. Those frustrations were exacerbated by the fact that we didn't have a single outfielder hitting well over the first couple months, and there were no competent options to fill in. Kepler still isn't hitting much. Hicks would be a pretty decent piece to fall back on.

[SwainZag]

 

  On 8/22/2017 at 7:38 PM, Taildragger8791 said:

Nobody suggested anything close to HoF, and throwing out strawman points like that doesn't contribute anything. You're arguing against your own made-up hyperbolic statement.

 

What I saw was posters frustrated that Hicks finally seemed to turn a corner  and become a valuable baseball player while our trade return was an instant objective failure. Those frustrations were exacerbated by the fact that we didn't have a single outfielder hitting well over the first couple months, and there were no competent options to fill in. Kepler still isn't hitting much. Hicks would be a pretty decent piece to fall back on.

 

It was obvious tongue-in-cheek to the amount of over reactionary posts that came early in the season regarding Hicks.  Kepler has a lot more success at the same age and similar playing than Hicks.  

[Taildragger8791]

 

  On 8/22/2017 at 7:52 PM, SwainZag said:

It was obvious tongue-in-cheek to the amount of over reactionary posts that came early in the season regarding Hicks.  Kepler has a lot more success at the same age and similar playing than Hicks.  

 

That wasn't my point about Kepler. I think he'll ultimately be fine but he's struggling quite a bit this year and there aren't any good options to give him a break or pinch hit for him.

[Dr. Evil]

Eighteen pages largely ripping the Twins and praising Hicks. I think it is reasonable to accept a little heat in the other direction by Swainzag. When I read the post I laughed. I never liked Hicks and I'm glad he is no longer here. Good stuff Swain!!!!

[SwainZag]

 

  On 8/22/2017 at 8:15 PM, Dr. Evil said:

Eighteen pages largely ripping the Twins and praising Hicks. I think it is reasonable to accept a little heat in the other direction by Swainzag. When I read the post I laughed. I never liked Hicks and I'm glad he is no longer here. Good stuff Swain!!!!

 

The point of my post wasn't to bash Hicks.  I was always a fan of Hicks, but I didn't believe the Hicks we saw in April-June was some revelation of Hicks as a brand new player.  A lot of people predicted Hicks would fall off by the end of the season and it started in June and has continued after he came back from the DL.  

[Dr. Evil]

No, I didn't think you were bashing Hicks.

[Otto von Ballpark]

 

  On 8/22/2017 at 6:08 PM, SwainZag said:

Hicks has struggled pretty bad since coming off the DL to the tune of .156/.269/.333 in 45 AB.

And sure enough, Hicks hits a dinger last night!  His OPS since coming off the DL jumped 65 points last night alone.  His isolated power since his DL trip is .216 and his "isolated discipline" (OBP-AVG) is .100.  K rate pretty much in line with his season average too.

 

Is it your position that his .167 BABIP over the last 12 games is particularly meaningful?

 

I think it's best just to keep an eye on his season numbers and not get too distracted by tiny samples.  He's having a good year for NY, and they are still starting him in CF and batting him 2nd every day in a pennant race.

[Otto von Ballpark]

 

  On 8/22/2017 at 6:08 PM, SwainZag said:

Season line down to .265/.375/.482/.857

 

To quote Dave from June, "If they had him in LF instead of Rosario for instance, they would still be in first place."

 

For Comparison:  Rosario: .300/.340/.505/.845

 

Is this still the case?

I won't defend anything Dave says

 

But just for fun, note that Hicks is still at a 131 wRC+ for the season. Rosario is at 121.  That OBP advantage outpaces the AVG advantage.

 

On defense, neither DRS (-8) or UZR (-5) like Rosario this season. Not sure if it is some odd effect of Buxton in CF?  Hicks is at +6 and +13 by the two systems, respectively.  That and positional adjustment fuel a large WAR advantage for Hicks now too.

[bird]

Man alive, 360 comments. I recall the earliest ones, where those who disliked the trade cited an undervaluation of Hicks, or giving up to soon, or an overvaluation of Murphy, maybe both, but basically a reasoned argument that it was an ill-advised trade. I think everyone can now conclude that those commenters had it right.

 

I don't see the relevance of a comparison of Hicks and Rosario if it isn't a retrospective argument that trading Hicks created another shortage (my own view). The majority opinion around here on both those guys, until the start of this season for Hicks and until this year's All Star break for Rosario, was that both were essentially 4th outfielders, and the only real question about either of them was if they were any good as 4th outfielders.

 

And I agree that the current FO may have salvaged something in acquiring Moya. We'll see. At least THAT trade was from surplus of sorts, although catchers are about the weirdest asset class in the game (Butera, Herrmann, John Hicks, Fryer, etc all still getting roster spots and National fans calling foe Wilson Ramos's head).

[USAFChief]

 

  On 8/23/2017 at 8:55 PM, birdwatcher said:

Man alive, 360 comments. I recall the earliest ones, where those who disliked the trade cited an undervaluation of Hicks, or giving up to soon, or an overvaluation of Murphy, maybe both, but basically a reasoned argument that it was an ill-advised trade. I think everyone can now conclude that those commenters had it right.

 

I don't see the relevance of a comparison of Hicks and Rosario if it isn't a retrospective argument that trading Hicks created another shortage (my own view). The majority opinion around here on both those guys, until the start of this season for Hicks and until this year's All Star break for Rosario, was that both were essentially 4th outfielders, and the only real question about either of them was if they were any good as 4th outfielders.

 

And I agree that the current FO may have salvaged something in acquiring Moya. We'll see. At least THAT trade was from surplus of sorts, although catchers are about the weirdest asset class in the game (Butera, Herrmann, John Hicks, Fryer, etc all still getting roster spots and National fans calling foe Wilson Ramos's head).

I don't think the relevant point of comparison is just Hicks-Rosario.  That's part of it, since it's a bit convenient to claim Rosario was a lock to improve (and while we're at it, to claim Rosario has permanently turned a corner.)

 

It's also Hicks-Grossman, or Hicks-Granite.  Or Hicks-Adrainza-in-leftfield.  Or Hicks-DannySantana.  Hicks in center field when Buxton isn't there, which lets you keep Rosario and Kepler in the lineup, in their normal corner spots.  Hicks DH'ing instead of Escobar, for example.

 

Hicks would have been a pretty nice piece to have on the team, this year and going forward. 

 

What the **** was TR thinking?  Awful trade, which looked pretty bad at the time.

[DaveW]

IMO The Twins would be contending for the division title if they still had Hicks, who FYi is looking better and better again, it sometimes takes a week or two to adjust after a long DL stint.

 

Also, man how good of a trade chip would he have been now for the Twins? They could get a solid young SP instead of JR Murphy.

 

This trade is worse than Capps for Ramos by far. At least Capps provided a little value for a bit.