Article: Ervin Santana Is Legit

[drjim]

 

It may make sense to dangle him out before Jose Quintana and Yu Darvish are put on the trade block this season. That way they can set the market for how much a SP should get in return. Once the White Sox set the market for Eaton and Sale in the winter, the hot stove started to cool down. 

 

That type of concern is vastly overstated for starting pitchers, there is always demand. Quintana and Darvish are different assets with different expectations.

[Richie the Rally Goat]

Erv's BABIP is .074 compared to his career .285. His FIP is .284 compared to last year's .381 and career .421. So he's pitching better, but he's also benefitting from Buck and extremely lucky.

 

Count me as skeptical but very happy with the results.

 

I certainly wouldn't extend him, but the rotation needs depth, which trading him most likely thins.

 

Enjoy the ride and hope for the best, I guess

[gil4]

 

Only if they are below .500 and the return is awesome. Hindsight is 20-20, but I think we are 8-4, maybe 9-3 with a good bench bat instead of that 13th pitcher. Hope they get it right, either way. Would be nice to bank as many wins as possible.

It's hard to say a bench bat would have made two games worth of difference, given the fact that the difference between a Vargas/Park and whoever they might hit for is significant but not huge.  I'd still rather have the bat than having two black holes on the roster (pitcher # 13 and DanSan.) 

 

I almost lost it when Santana was a defensive replacement yesterday, but then he made a nice play on the carom off the wall to save a run and hold the batter to a single.  I could easily see Grossman butchering that play into a triple...

 

Since the original topic was the other Santana, I will add my agreement that I'd be open to trading him if the team is below .500 and the return is significant, but his contract is looking pretty good right now, so there is no need to force the trade if the other teams aren't offering a premium.

[Nick Nelson]

 

Let's revisit this when his .074 BABIP and 4.8% HR/FB rate normalize. 

There's no implication here that he's going to sustain a 0.41 ERA throughout the summer. We saw what happened last year with those factors normalized over a full season. 

 

This article is less about what he's done in his first three starts in 2017, and more about what he's done with a fair amount of consistency since 2013.

[nokomismod]

 

There will certainly be a market, they won't have trouble trading him. I'm just not as confident it will be an package that will be all that impressive.

 

If the Twins are trending upwards, if not exactly playoff bound this year, might just make sense to keep him for the rest of his contract.

I kind of agree with you when it comes to pitching. This team has been so starved for quality pitching that I wouldn't trade Ervin unless the return is really good. Ervin could continue to be a solid starter for a couple of more years and there isn't a current starter on the team or in the farm system that looks to be a front line starter. There is also something to him being a mentor to the other guys and protecting the bullpen.

[bird]

 

Understanding that this won't continue for Santana, but perhaps thinking he is a little bit better than last year, I'm curious what people think they'd receive for Santana.

 

I understand the desire to trade him if you don't think this is a playoff team (I would agree), but I think the return will be a little bit disappointing.

 

 

If I'm the GM, I expect to retain Santana. Why? Mainly because I don't believe someone is going to offer me a future frontline starter of greater promise than any I have in the system today (Berrios, Romero, Gonsalves) and another prospect of substance thrown in (think Blankenblahblah). But I'm sure gonna try, and I'll be blind to where we are in the standings, contrarian as that is, if the overpay is stupendous. I'll take my chances on Berrios as his replacement.

 

I just don't expect anyone these days to offer up a pitching prospect much better than a Berrios type.

Edited April 17, 2017 by birdwatcher

[Mike Sixel]

If someone offered me a SP in AAA that I believed was a number 3 for the next 5 years, I'd trade ESan right now. Assuming that's what you mean by Berrios type.

 

Gonsalves is hurt, and his stuff is nice, but not awesome. Romero has already had arm surgery. Gibson and Santana aren't young. Santiago? Who knows. Mejia? Hard to say. I'd love to have another Berrios type, assuming you mean top 20 in all of baseball pitching prospect in AAA (which is what Berrios was last year).

[diehardtwinsfan]

I guess July is going to depend on pretender vs. contender. Right now, being in the thick of things, I think there's be an uproar for a trade, but if the Twins are still in contention, do they ship him off?  I'd probably argue that if guys like Buxton, Mauer, and Rosario haven't come around, then it would be wise... But I would without question want some top shelf pitching prospects.  

[drjim]

 

If someone offered me a SP in AAA that I believed was a number 3 for the next 5 years, I'd trade ESan right now. Assuming that's what you mean by Berrios type.

 

Gonsalves is hurt, and his stuff is nice, but not awesome. Romero has already had arm surgery. Gibson and Santana aren't young. Santiago? Who knows. Mejia? Hard to say. I'd love to have another Berrios type, assuming you mean top 20 in all of baseball pitching prospect in AAA (which is what Berrios was last year).

 

I would trade him for a Berrios type too. Don't think that will be on the table.

 

Gonsalves, Romero, Mejia are the back end top 100 guys that you might be able to get. Not sure if I would pull the trigger if that is the headliner.

[bird]

We have better than a Berrios type right now and for two plus years in Ervin Santana, for a reasonable price. And that's assuming Berrios lives up to his ceiling as a #2-3 starter. Yes, I know he stands a better chance of falling apart than a Berrios type. I'll take my chances that I can construct a roster of pitchers that will give me similar production to Berrios, maybe slightly less, over the next year or so. I don't want to trade my one frontline guy for that type. I want a frontline prospect for my one frontline guy. At the most optimistic, Berrios is viewed as having a small chance of giving you some #2 production. Not a good enough return for me. Close though, with a Rortvedt type thrown in.

 

As you say, none of what we have in the system is clearly projecting to be Santana's equal.

[Vanimal46]

 

We have better than a Berrios type right now and for two plus years in Ervin Santana, for a reasonable price. And that's assuming Berrios lives up to his ceiling as a #2-3 starter. Yes, I know he stands a better chance of falling apart than a Berrios type. I'll take my chances that I can construct a roster of pitchers that will give me similar production to Berrios, maybe slightly less, over the next year or so. I don't want to trade my one frontline guy for that type. I want a frontline prospect for my one frontline guy. At the most optimistic, Berrios is viewed as having a small chance of giving you some #2 production. Not a good enough return for me. Close though, with a Rortvedt type thrown in.

 

As you say, none of what we have in the system is clearly projecting to be Santana's equal.

 

Not until June when they draft Hunter Greene #1 overall!

[Mike Sixel]

Santana is old, not free, and is a FA in 1.5 years. Getting a top 20 prospect for him would be a great outcome, especially for a team VERY unlikely to make the playoffs this year, and probably next year.

 

http://www.fangraphs.com/blogs/how-brian-cashman-sold-the-yankees-rebuild/

 

 

[frightwig]

I like Erv. He's been a good signing for the Twins--and I even drafted him in fantasy this year, so know that I'm not, "Ahhh, he sucks." But we should look at more than his ERA when evaluating him.

 

These are his seasonal lines since coming to Minnesota:

 

2015: 4.00 ERA, 4.17 FIP, 4.42 xFIP, 6.83 K/9, 3.00 BB/9, 1.00 HR/9

2016: 3.38 ERA, 3.81 FIP, 4.21 xFIP, 7.40 K/9, 2.63 BB/9,  0.94 HR/9

2017: 0.41 ERA, 2.84 FIP, 3.77 xFIP, 6.14 K/9, 2.05 BB/9, 0.41 HR/9

Total: 3.38 ERA, 3.87 FIP, 4.25 xFIP, 7.11 K/9, 2.72 BB/9, 0.93 HR/9

 

His 3.87 FIP ranks 33rd among 80 qualifying starters in that time; his 4.25 xFIP ranks 65th.

 

I'd say that he's a fine mid-rotation starter who doesn't strike out a lot of batters (7.11 K/9 ranks 64th of 80) but has decent control (2.72 BB/9 ranks 45th). Indeed, he's done pretty well at keeping the ball in the park--0.93 HR/9 ranks 18th and 9.5% HR/FB ranks 6th--and his .272 BABIP ranks 11th. Possibly that's a testament to his sinker, but I'd also wonder what may happen, as he hits his mid/late 30's, if he loses a little zip and batters start to barrel up on him better. Those HR rates are probably going to regress, anyway, and his BABIP may rise while his K/9 may dip, too. Should the Twins want to keep riding him through the next few years at age 34-36, or sell high for a prospect or two?

 

If he's hot in July, I'll be hoping to see the Twins cash in.

 

 

[TheLeviathan]

I am wary of trending down the "what could we get in a trade" road.  But I'll say this: A good return with a Top 50 pitching prospect in it may not make you fall out of your chair.  "Good return", thanks to Dozier this offseason, seems to have morphed into "blow me away" territory.

 

A top 50 SP prospect and one or two other guys with upside is what I'd look for.  The closer to the majors the better.

[d-mac]

 

What is "normal" BABIP with the outfield we have?  Serious question, it has to be much lower than it would have been the last coupla years?

 

The lowest BABIP last year by a qualified starter was .234 by Marco Estrada and the lowest HR/FB% was 8.4 by Johnny Cueto. So even if he matches those numbers that's more three times as many hits and almost twice as many home runs. League average BABIP was .298 last year. And how much longer do you expect that outfield to stay intact with Buxton and Rosario having sub .400 OPS's?

[Doomtints]

 

What is "normal" BABIP with the outfield we have?  Serious question, it has to be much lower than it would have been the last coupla years?

 

League average hovers around .300.  It's a decent way to predict the "luck" of pitchers, but it's not as good at predicting "luck" of hitters because some hitters can hit directionally very well.  

 

That being said, new data is showing that "good" pitchers are "good" at inducing weak infield grounders which would boost BABIP even on a defensively challenged team.  If you watched the World Series last year you know this story well (and know how dull it is to watch as a baseball fan).

 

But no, he's not likely to have 1-hitters the rest of the way through 2017 unless he is shooting for the MVP.  Buxton, et al,, have done a lot for Santana this year.

Edited April 17, 2017 by Doomtints

[drjim]

I am wary of trending down the "what could we get in a trade" road. But I'll say this: A good return with a Top 50 pitching prospect in it may not make you fall out of your chair. "Good return", thanks to Dozier this offseason, seems to have morphed into "blow me away" territory.

 

A top 50 SP prospect and one or two other guys with upside is what I'd look for. The closer to the majors the better.

I would do that trade. I'm skeptical it would be on the table.

[drjim]

Santana is old, not free, and is a FA in 1.5 years. Getting a top 20 prospect for him would be a great outcome, especially for a team VERY unlikely to make the playoffs this year, and probably next year.

 

http://www.fangraphs.com/blogs/how-brian-cashman-sold-the-yankees-rebuild/

3 of the 4 Yankee trades were free agents. Twins should look to do that (Santiago, Kintzler).

 

1.5 years plus option of Santana is a different calculation.

[Mike Sixel]

 

The lowest BABIP last year by a qualified starter was .234 by Marco Estrada and the lowest HR/FB% was 8.4 by Johnny Cueto. So even if he matches those numbers that's more three times as many hits and almost twice as many home runs. League average BABIP was .298 last year. And how much longer do you expect that outfield to stay intact with Buxton and Rosario having sub .400 OPS's?

 

given they had no plan B for the 4th year in a row for the OF, too long.

[Mike Sixel]

 

3 of the 4 Yankee trades were free agents. Twins should look to do that (Santiago, Kintzler).

1.5 years plus option of Santana is a different calculation.

 

Except ESan has legit value. As does Dozier and Castro. That's about it for movable veterans.

 

I posted that Yankee thing because it talked about rebuilding, and not trying to win when you really don't have a chance to win. If I could find the TX GM's comments on that, I'd post those too....

[drjim]

Except ESan has legit value. As does Dozier and Castro. That's about it for movable veterans.

 

I posted that Yankee thing because it talked about rebuilding, and not trying to win when you really don't have a chance to win. If I could find the TX GM's comments on that, I'd post those too....

Of course you trade pending free agents whe you can't win. Every team does that.

[Mike Sixel]

 

Of course you trade pending free agents whe you can't win. Every team does that.

 

Not actually. No. It isn't that easy, as you can see by reading the article. Also, TX had to convince their ownership. 

[DocBauer]

I can't say I'd be upset to trade him around July if we could get a solid return for him. But if this team is somehow in contention, .500 record, spot at a wi,d card, etc, I think I'd be inclined to keep him.

 

There's a whole lot we don't know yet, like how Hughes will hold up, despite surprising thus far, or how Mejia will develop, (nice last game), same with Berrios when he comes up, (hopefully for good), or just what we really have in the enigmatic Santiago, (he's been to an all star game for goodness sake, pitched well for the Angels before we got him, then finished '16 strong and is off to a nice start so far this season). What we do know is that Santana has been a nice signing, and thus farm has not fallen off the proverbial cliff, as of yet, and it could be easily argued he's not within peeking distance of seeing the edge of that cliff at the moment.

 

Something to consider; Perkins and his $6.5M comes off the books next season. With young relievers on the way, it's very conceivable that another $6M also comes off in the form of Kintzler, Breslow and Belisle. That's $12M+ in extra payroll for a team that cut payroll from last season, and is quite a ways under the ML average. (I'm not even going to reference Mauer off the books after 2018). Gibson and Santiago are making $8M and almost $3M this season. This means if the Twins are even close to being a .500 team and contender, they could keep Santana and Hughes, factor in Berrios and Mejia as young starters to get established this season, and have possibles such as a healthy May, Gonsalves, Romero, Jorge and even Stewart, plus a maybe in Slegers available to fight for a 5th rotation spot. (Maybe toss in Haley and Duffey as "possibles"). But the team could legitimately have $20+M available for a major FA to be signed for 2018!

 

I'm not necessarily advocating trading or not trading Santana. I'm simply talking about a talented, young and improving team that via trade and non-tender, could legitimately have room and money to make a major acquisition for their rotation in 2018 while still keeping him. I find that....interesting.

[Deduno Abides]

Pride goeth before the fall. Ervin has been good, but his results this year are SSS as much as anything, as typified by his .074 BABIP, against last year's .285, which is even with his career record. It's a little early to get too excited.

 

On the positive side, he does appear to be inducing more weak contact and more ground balls, which can be valuable skills.

 

At this point, he's off to what could be a career year. He'll be 35 next year. Trade him if you want to try for a World Series in a few years. Keep him if you'll be satisfied with trying for a Wild Card this year and are OK with the risk of retaining him through the normal declining years.

[Teflon]

Santana's batting average-against on balls in play are going to normalize at some point this season. It's currently .074 which is ridiculous - no matter how much ground Buxton, Kepler and Rosario can cover. 

[KirbyDome89]

 

I would trade him for a Berrios type too. Don't think that will be on the table.

 

Gonsalves, Romero, Mejia are the back end top 100 guys that you might be able to get. Not sure if I would pull the trigger if that is the headliner.

I can't imagine that Mejia + parts would be the best package they're offered for Santana given he pitches reasonably well up to the deadline. 

[Deduno Abides]

I can't imagine that Mejia + parts would be the best package they're offered for Santana given he pitches reasonably well up to the deadline.

 

I would have to imagine that a #2 starter would get more than Eduardo Nunez.

[Doomtints]

 

I can't say I'd be upset to trade him around July if we could get a solid return for him. But if this team is somehow in contention, .500 record, spot at a wi,d card, etc, I think I'd be inclined to keep him.

 

They made this mistake a couple of years ago.  The Twins still have a thin pitching staff with not much in the pipeline.  

Unless they want to buy, they have to sell. They can't just hold pat. Do you think they will be buyers if they are around .500?

Edited April 17, 2017 by Doomtints

[Oldgoat_MN]

 

They made this mistake a couple of years ago.  The Twins still have a thin pitching staff with not much in the pipeline.  

Unless they want to buy, they have to sell. They can't just hold pat. Do you think they will be buyers if they are around .500?

I hope not. They should be sellers unless something shocking happens. Like challenging for the division title.

[Vanimal46]

Lots on here have been saying keep unless it's a big return... Well, that's up to interpretation right? Erv Santana is not Chris Sale, so that kind of haul isn't realistic.

 

I said earlier that if the offer is a top 100 SP prospect + a young (18-21) positional prospect or 2 would be enough to pull the trigger.

 

What do people mean by big return?