Article: Ervin Santana Is Legit

[highlander]

I've picked E Santana up cheap for my fantasy league teams for a couple of years now!

[Blake]

 

Lots on here have been saying keep unless it's a big return... Well, that's up to interpretation right? Erv Santana is not Chris Sale, so that kind of haul isn't realistic.

I said earlier that if the offer is a top 100 SP prospect + a young (18-21) positional prospect or 2 would be enough to pull the trigger.

What do people mean by big return?

Van, I think the powers that be should stand pat unless they get a killer offer. I think not dealing Dozier was probably the right move in the off-season. It may very well turn out not making a deal for Santan is the best way to go, too. Overall, with the results the Twins are getting from Santana, it might be a good thing to keep him for next year. Barring injury, I can see another really good year after this year. If it looks like the staff has solidified with the addition of Santiago and Meija, there may not be any reason to move Santana. If anything, Gibson or Hughes should be worrying about getting outright cut, should Berrios continue to dominate.

 

That will be .02 cents, please.

[Richie the Rally Goat]

They made this mistake a couple of years ago. The Twins still have a thin pitching staff with not much in the pipeline.

 

Unless they want to buy, they have to sell. They can't just hold pat. Do you think they will be buyers if they are around .500?

but that's the issue with trading away pitching isn't it? Depth is thin, so you can't really trade it away unless you're getting back 2 close to major league ready pitchers. That's tough to swing.

[Doomtints]

 

but that's the issue with trading away pitching isn't it? Depth is thin, so you can't really trade it away unless you're getting back 2 close to major league ready pitchers. That's tough to swing.

 

That was my argument during the offseason, that there was no way the return could be better than what Santana will offer. The holes were just too big.

 

But as time goes on and people move through the pipeline and as Santana's contract gets closer to the end, it starts to make sense to move him. 

[Deduno Abides]

1. It would be really surprising if several teams don't want to add good pitching at the trade deadline. In contrast, not too many contenders need a second baseman, even a really good one.

 

2. Falvey and Levine may not base the return on historical prospect rankings. They might be looking for other things.

[DaveW]

Santana is a stud. If he keeps this up he certainly needs to be traded unless the Twins literally find themselves within 2-3 games of the DIVISON lead on July 31st or in a WC spot at the time IMO.

 

They need some live young arms for the future, a guy like Santana should be able to bring a couple back.

[TheLeviathan]

 

I would do that trade. I'm skeptical it would be on the table.

 

Well, you can never know for sure.  But you're suggesting a good starter with some control will net less than Eduardo Nunez.

 

I understand skepticism, but don't you think you're taking it a tad farther than that?

[DaveW]

I do wonder if we could get the dodgers to revisit the offer they offered up for Dozier but get them to toss in even more if we include Santana:

 

JDL+Alvarez+Bellinger

 

For Dozier and Santana

 

Do it

[Mike Sixel]

JDL is in Tampa, alas. But, hey, they have Dozier...

[drjim]

Well, you can never know for sure. But you're suggesting a good starter with some control will net less than Eduardo Nunez.

 

I understand skepticism, but don't you think you're taking it a tad farther than that?

The offer you suggested was a better return than Nunez. And I think people underestimate what Nunez was worth last year.

 

For me, I'm most interested in the main piece.

[drjim]

JDL is in Tampa, alas. But, hey, they have Dozier...

Good. De Leon isn't making it through the season. Would have been a bad trade for the Twins.

[gil4]

 

Rincon was legit for a while.  So was Romero.  The two of them were key assets on some very successful Twins teams.

 

I crossed it out for a different reason, because it's not proper.

I think it's a valid point of discussion for anyone who has been caught using.  How much did he benefit?  How long do the benefits last? What is the risk for a 2nd suspension? 

 

I have more sympathy for international players caught using PEDs because the laws and product availability in their countries often make it easy to accidentally take something that isn't approved.  I also have lived in Germany and Belgium, and I know what a pain it is to have to try to read fine print in a language that is not your own, even when there is a support structure in place.

 

Still, MLB has no such sympathy, and if he slips again it 1 year, I believe.  That's going to be a factor in evaluating his value.

[Doomtints]

 

I think it's a valid point of discussion for anyone who has been caught using.  How much did he benefit?  How long do the benefits last? What is the risk for a 2nd suspension? 

 

I have more sympathy for international players caught using PEDs because the laws and product availability in their countries often make it easy to accidentally take something that isn't approved.  I also have lived in Germany and Belgium, and I know what a pain it is to have to try to read fine print in a language that is not your own, even when there is a support structure in place.

 

Still, MLB has no such sympathy, and if he slips again it 1 year, I believe.  That's going to be a factor in evaluating his value.

 

I agree. It's not just a valid discussion but an essential discussion and it will be an extremely interesting one.

 

But I think it's still too early, people are still too passionate about it, ballplayers and teams are still unwilling to talk about it. At some point someone will write a great, comprehensive book about what happened.

[laloesch]

 

I think we will find that the return for Santana is less than we all wish it would beat the deadline. I don't think we will (or should) trade him unless it really is that huge return that we hope for so I think he will be here for the season.

 

Intuition?

 

I beg to differ.  If he continues to pitch like this and is shopped around at the deadline i'm sure he will fetch a fair value.  He has an option year still.  I don't understand the pessimism about his value.  Were not talking about Brian Dozier here. 

[diehardtwinsfan]

I think Santana could net a nice pitching prospect or three, but I don't think he's going to net a major league ready pitching prospect, as said team with the high upside ML ready pitching prospect would want to plug in said guy in place of their weak spot on the mound... unless by chance they really just need one more guy and are willing to not develop said pitcher, but that would be tough.  If the Pirates are in it and Glasnow is still struggling, I could potentially see a match there, but I still think it's more than a 1 for 1 deal. 

 

Perhaps if a team like NYY was a pitcher a way, they'd be willing to send one or two of their big AA pitching prospects over, but even then, that's a move for 2018/19, but also quite a bit more realistic if we want pitching help for Santana.

 

Dozier might get that pitcher, b/c presumably a team that needs a 2B could possibly be stacked at pitching.  Not sure if LAD would be a fit given that Forsythe, while not lighting the world on fire, isn't exactly doing poorly either.

[TheLeviathan]

 

The offer you suggested was a better return than Nunez. And I think people underestimate what Nunez was worth last year.

For me, I'm most interested in the main piece.

 

So what has to be the main piece?  I feel like you, and some others, say these things but there really isn't much actual substance to it.  Or you're well aware your expectations are unrealistic.  You demand a return so narrowly defined as acceptable that you basically stack the deck for your skepticism to be warranted.

 

So is your main piece demand based in the real world or are we back to a lot of what it seemed like this offseason with Dozier?

[diehardtwinsfan]

it comes down to risk vs. reward.  Santana has a lot less of the risk category and a known reward.  Risk is higher with pitching prospects, and matching what Santana has done is not exactly common.  If the Twins are out and there's a top 50 with a couple more high upside guys, I'd probably do it.  Given the demand for pitching at the deadline, I don't think it's unreasonable to expect a return on that level...

 

But yeah, if the offers are equivalent to JDL straight up...  he stays.

[drjim]

So what has to be the main piece? I feel like you, and some others, say these things but there really isn't much actual substance to it. Or you're well aware your expectations are unrealistic. You demand a return so narrowly defined as acceptable that you basically stack the deck for your skepticism to be warranted.

 

So is your main piece demand based in the real world or are we back to a lot of what it seemed like this offseason with Dozier?

I would look at this way, I think Santana has a decent chance of being good through his contract. While the Twins likely aren't making the playoffs this year, I think they can make another move in 18 and 19.

 

If I'm going to move Santana I want something that will clearly build towards that. Otherwise I'd roll with Santana.

 

Maybe my expectations are unrealistic, but I also don't see a huge need to move him, so I want it to be worthwhile. Maybe that package isn't there.

[TheLeviathan]

A player you have control over for more than a year+ has tremendous value to your objective as well.  At the end of the day, the team needs to be able to identify and acquire the players that will push us to contention.  

 

Dealing short term controlled vets in down years seems like one ideal way to do that.  

[a-wan]

 

Dealing short term controlled vets in down years seems like one ideal way to do that.  

 

I would agree, for any team but the Twins. As a fan of the team I want them to not suck now. Trading Santana for something in the future makes the Twins suck more now, in hopes of sucking less in the future. Or maybe I'm just not confident in the front office because I forget that JR isn't running the team anymore?

[TheLeviathan]

 

Or maybe I'm just not confident in the front office because I forget that JR isn't running the team anymore?

 

Winner.

[ShouldaCouldaWoulda]

There are only 7 MLB pitchers that have begun the season with 4 straight quality starts; Syndergaard, Bumgarner, Sale, Strasburg, Keuchel, Duffy, and ERVIN SANTANA. 

[Brock Beauchamp]

There are only 7 MLB pitchers that have begun the season with 4 straight quality starts; Syndergaard, Bumgarner, Sale, Strasburg, Keuchel, Duffy, and ERVIN SANTANA.

Santana's the only guy from that list I would have predicted on opening day.

[ShouldaCouldaWoulda]

 

Santana's the only guy from that list I would have predicted on opening day.

Yeah, kind of a dull list;)

 

[kab21]

It is quite interesting how quickly things change.

During the offseason some/many didn't see the need any additional #3 upside starters in the high minors and now the Twins have literally nobody behind Berrios (or Mejia) to call up.

 

During the offseason there was a sentiment that since Ervin was older and not likely to be part of winning teams that he should be dealt regardless what the return was. The same was said of Santiago, Hughes and Gibson to some extent since we needed to get prospects into rotation to see what they had. May is injured, Duffey might be staying in the pen, Gonsalves is injured and Jay moved to the pen. Nearly zero depth.

 

Now the Twins have no depth at SP and retaining Santana and Santiago look like great moves. Gibson and Hughes are rather indifferent moves but somebody needs to pitch and the Twins don't have many options.

 

For the record I would trade Santana (and would have this offseason) for a top 50 prospect and a top 200-ish (or two) flyers. With a strong preference towards starters obviously. Otherwise definitely hang onto Santana but the end will come harshly. So far he has gotten better with age but 35+ pitchers don't have a great track record.

[diehardtwinsfan]

yeah, I've got to think that if he's pitching well and the team is out of it that he gets moved in July. That would be a smart move, but no question that SP depth is an issue at the moment. May is hurt and Duffey is in the pen.  Gonsalves has yet to pitch.  That leaves Berrios/Mejia. 

 

Honestly, right now our SP depth is Wheeler and Sleegers.  Neither are on the 40 man, but I'd bet that one of them will be at some point later this year.

 

 

[Brock Beauchamp]

 

It is quite interesting how quickly things change.

During the offseason some/many didn't see the need any additional #3 upside starters in the high minors and now the Twins have literally nobody behind Berrios (or Mejia) to call up.

 

During the offseason there was a sentiment that since Ervin was older and not likely to be part of winning teams that he should be dealt regardless what the return was. The same was said of Santiago, Hughes and Gibson to some extent since we needed to get prospects into rotation to see what they had. May is injured, Duffey might be staying in the pen, Gonsalves is injured and Jay moved to the pen. Nearly zero depth.

 

Now the Twins have no depth at SP and retaining Santana and Santiago look like great moves. Gibson and Hughes are rather indifferent moves but somebody needs to pitch and the Twins don't have many options.

 

For the record I would trade Santana (and would have this offseason) for a top 50 prospect and a top 200-ish (or two) flyers. With a strong preference towards starters obviously. Otherwise definitely hang onto Santana but the end will come harshly. So far he has gotten better with age but 35+ pitchers don't have a great track record.

Yep. When you have a bunch of questionable-to-bad starter options, the only solution is to pile depth behind them and hope for the best.

 

And that's why I was in favor of retaining Santiago. I didn't expect him to be a good pitcher but I did expect him to be better than some Andrew Albers-type pitcher.

 

And if not for Santiago, right now we'd be looking at the Twins moving some bad AAAA arm into the rotation when they next need a fifth starter.

 

And we're 17 games into the season.

[Linus]

This why I still hope for a Dozier trade. They lack for starters throughout the organization so trading is really the only solution.

[bird]

 

I am wary of trending down the "what could we get in a trade" road.  But I'll say this: A good return with a Top 50 pitching prospect in it may not make you fall out of your chair.  "Good return", thanks to Dozier this offseason, seems to have morphed into "blow me away" territory.

 

A top 50 SP prospect and one or two other guys with upside is what I'd look for.  The closer to the majors the better.

 

I agree, but this is why I think they retain him. We may have too many sellers at the deadline, too much inventory available, to extract this kind of overpay for him. But for me, and I hope for Falvey, there's no great benefit in trading him for some prospect that projects as just another league-average starter. So I think Falvey keeps him, through his option year even.

[TheLeviathan]

 

I agree, but this is why I think they retain him. We may have too many sellers at the deadline, too much inventory available, to extract this kind of overpay for him. But for me, and I hope for Falvey, there's no great benefit in trading him for some prospect that projects as just another league-average starter. So I think Falvey keeps him, through his option year even.

 

Well, I suppose that depends on how close to "league average" he is.  If he's above or below, how many teams are in the races, injuries, and so many other things are factors.

 

But I think he'll have significant value.