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Article: Who Will Be Pitching Staff's Odd Man Out?


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Duffey looked positively lethal out of the 'pen against the White Sox. I hope the team keeps him in that role, and uses him in high leverage situations - it seems to be his best fit. 

 

If that's ultimately the role Duffey takes on - Tonkin is ancillary and could likely be let go. 

 

Agreed.  If Duffy's taken over 7th inning duties, Belisle/Pressley are there to handle the 8th, and Haley's the mop-up guy, then what is Tonkin's role?  I can see keeping Breslow only because he's a veteran lefty, and they can often bring value in a mid-season trade.  It might help to have a backup for Rogers in that role also, in case something happens to him.  

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I don't believe the league figured out Duffey or that he can't be an effective starter because of his pitch mix.    I think he threw poorly last year with little command of his pitches and that no one would have liked him as a reliever the way he was throwing either.   I am fine with him being a reliever now but have no concerns about him starting.  

 I have always liked Breslow but he seems like the obvious choice.   We do have a long stretch of games and you do need mop up guys.   If we are still complaining about our relievers not being used enough to justify having 13 pitchers I will be pretty happy because it will mean our rotation is doing a good job.   I fear the opposite.   If our outfielders would just start to hit we wouldn't need a deep bench.   

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Breslow or Haley for me.

 

I might do Haley now just to rip the Band-Aid off and get it over with. I don't think it's a good idea to try to keep him all year. Best case scenario is he's an expendable back of the rotation starter. Worst case is he's a bullpen righty with a 91 MPH FB, he just doesn't have the velocity to make it work. At least with Ryan Pressly and J.R. Graham there was some long shot projection as they could bring mid-90's heat.

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The baseball chief and the general manager have a plan for this team.  A big part of that plan is to hire their own manager.  The easiest way to delete the current manager is to allow him to lose..... a lot.  Any roster moves they may make at this time will not be designed to make the team better.

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When I watch Tonkin, I see a straight-as-an-arrow fastball with less than stellar command. Because of the command with the fastball he really doesn't get much swing and miss on his breaking ball. MLB hitters can sit on the fastball and if its over, crush it. This hasn't improved in 3 years of sometimes limited MLB experience. He is not mis-used in my opinion. If he was excelling in a low leverage role he would be moved into a higher leverage role.

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Don't teams typically start a new season with extra SP's? The theory being, SP's aren't stretched out enough yet. My theory is: if you have a job that starts at a specific date, you should already be prepared for that job, that time, that date. Silly me.....

late and semi-prepared usually gets it done for me. Ah blissfully self employed. I would dump Breslow
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I am not one who thinks it is a challenge unless you want to flip a coin between Haley and Breslow - neither are necessary or showing the upside we need.  Haley was supposed to be a long man in the pen, but if he can only do one inning we have nothing to gain.  Move him, use Duffey more in that role, get Vargas up, send down Santana and bring up a true fourth outfielder.  

Eventually we will need a 3B defensive player who can hit and Sano will move to DH or 1B.  The Twins should be lining up their options.

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The baseball chief and the general manager have a plan for this team.  A big part of that plan is to hire their own manager.  The easiest way to delete the current manager is to allow him to lose..... a lot.  Any roster moves they may make at this time will not be designed to make the team better.

 

Disagree strongly with your take. If they're making moves in April designed to tank the season, then they hired the wrong people to run a front office. Molitor's contract is over at the end of the season. No reason to conspire against him in order to hire a different manager. 

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I guess I'm too old to understand the 21St century front office methods. I would have thought a front office would asemble the best players they could and let their manager do the best he can. But from what I read in TD articles and reader posts is that the front office dictates how many pitchers and how many hiters the team will carry. That makes no sense to me. Is there any purpose for having a manager? Let computers dictate all the moves.

 

 

 

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The baseball chief and the general manager have a plan for this team.  A big part of that plan is to hire their own manager.  The easiest way to delete the current manager is to allow him to lose..... a lot.  Any roster moves they may make at this time will not be designed to make the team better.

 

disagree. There is no grand conspiracy to hurt Molitor.

 

As for DanSan.....Molitor wants him on the roster. Saying that he was hamstrung because that was one of his options to play, well, that's on Molitor. Let's not give Paul a pass on this. Please.

 

As for the RP, the manager refuses to use Tonkin other than in a mop up capacity. Just let him go already. Breslow won't be missed when he leaves. Duffy should probably get a shot to start again, just in case he can be good (though I think he's a high leverage reliever). Most of the rest of the bullpen is just ok anyway. Does it really matter if they lose Tonkin, or Breslow? Breslow is, what, 78 years old? He won't be here when they're good. 

 

This is, imo, a failure of the FO and manager. It was when they went North, and it remains so now. 

 

But, I'll say this, since they didn't add a legit 4th OFer (and given Buxton's start, it sure looks like they should have for the 4th straight year), and they failed in their quest to sign any of the aging DH types, and Park is hurt, I have no idea who should come up.

 

Basically, this offseason, they fixed catcher and nothing else.

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I apologize for the poorly written post above but it frustrates me that front offices make decisions on roster makeup and not the manager.

 

It's always been that way though, that's not a modern thing. Roster construction also involves figuring out who has option years left and who can clear waivers, who still needs work and where the depth will be. These aren't things that the field manager dictates, nor should he.

 

The manager controls in-game action, the GM controls most everything else.

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"Rule 5 pick Justin Haley has more or less proven his worth"

 

I didn't realize you could do that in two MLB appearances.

 

Considering Breslow has been used the least, it should be an easy choice. I wouldn't expect a move until we're at least to Santana's next start. You don't make the bullpen shorter right before starting a rookie #5 (after a bad start).

 

 

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We can't let go of Haley, because we'll automatically go back to the team we got him from, correct? Doesn't he have to stay on the roster in order to keep him?

 

He goes through waivers first, then back to original team. Then they could trade for him.

 

Can they make a trade with BOS now, or did that have to be done before Opening Day?

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I guess I'm too old to understand the 21St century front office methods. I would have thought a front office would asemble the best players they could and let their manager do the best he can. But from what I read in TD articles and reader posts is that the front office dictates how many pitchers and how many hiters the team will carry. That makes no sense to me. Is there any purpose for having a manager? Let computers dictate all the moves.

If you want evidence that Paul Molitor has influence over the 25-man roster, I think the fact that Danny Santana is still around is all you need.

 

He's been one of the worst players in baseball for two years and had a poor spring. Hard for me to believe the front office would have been keen on keeping him (though we'll see what happens once Ehire Adrianza is healthy).

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I think that the roster decisions that need to be made soon are a bit more complicated than "dropping a reliever and picking up Vargas".  Here are the complications, on early roster decisions:

 

  • They soon need to decide on Adrianza and O'Rourke, both about to come out of the 10-day DL and out of options.  Easy decision for me: DFA both and see if they clear waivers.
  • Their "best bet" to come up from Rochester (Park) is hurt with hammy issues
  • They have pitchers with options in the majors (Duffey, Mejia) but one has been a starter and the other lights out.
  • The best player for bench depth and versatility for the Twins, right now, might not be Vargas, but Niko Goodrum, who has been on fire in Rochester (.353/.389/.647) and can pretty much play every position but catcher.
  • When Molitor is looking and his bench and being disgusted, he is looking at Mr .143 as well (.143/.143/.143), below replacement level, Danny Santana (who is out of options.)
  • In SSS Tonkin has not been awful (but 100% LOB and 0% FB/HR might change that quickly upon regression to normal), but has career lows in K/9 and BB/9.   But still is SSS
  • Breslow, on the other hand, has bigger issues:  The arm angle change experiment that was supposedly going to help him increase his velocity, has failed.  His velocity this season is 2 mph below last season, and 87 mph fastballs do not cut it.

 

What I would do?  DFA Breslow and Santana, bring up Goodrum and Vargas, and after Park returns, depending on performance, flip with Vargas (who has options).

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If you want evidence that Paul Molitor has influence over the 25-man roster, I think the fact that Danny Santana is still around is all you need.

 

He's been one of the worst players in baseball for two years and had a poor spring. Hard for me to believe the front office would have been keen on keeping him (though we'll see what happens once Ehire Adrianza is healthy).

 

I'm intrigued by Adrianza... I'd certainly like for him to be D San's replacement on the 25 man roster ASAP. 

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It's Tonkin for me.

 

While I can't explain the way they've used him in the majors, it's clear that Molitor doesn't trust him enough. Why keep pushing the inevitable off?

 

You leave Duffey in the bullpen. I've said throughout his career that's where he should be, even when he was having success as a starter. Good chance he's closing for Twins before season's end.

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thrylos is right.....filling your bullpen with old players w/o options is handcuffing a team like this. If only that had been predictable before 1 week into the season, and there were a whole lot of RPs in AAA and AA that threw the ball hard...

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 It should have been Park out of spring training, but if not him (I know he's got a hamstring thing right now), then go get a RH hitting OF option. Particularly since the guy who should be the RH fourth outfielder can't play OF and is somehow needed to DH.

Honestly, I really felt like they should have kept Stubbs out of ST and now that's even looking more like the case. His RH bat was such a nice fit with Rosario and Kepler starting in the corners, plus he could play CF and allows you to spell Buxton without starting Santana. 

 

Alas, now Stubbs is with the Giants. We'll see how he does in San Fran. 

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I'd expect that the Twins don't make a change until at least Friday night, because they are lined up to face three righties today through Friday.  The short bench is easier to deal with given how the lineup is drawn against righties.  The Twins are scheduled to face lefty Quintana on Saturday.  I think if the Twins starters have long starts the next three games, we see a move Friday night.  If the bullpen gets taxed this week though, they might feel they have to hang onto the extended bullpen for now.

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I'd keep Breslow for another six weeks as a lefty specialist. It looks like Perkins is making progress in Ft. Myers, let Breslow go when Perkins is ready to come back...hopefully, in early June.

 

So that puts Tonkin as the odd man out when they bring Vargas back, hopefully soon!

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We have 16 straight game days (15 after yesterday), including 4 next week against Cleveland and 3 the week after on the road against Texas, a good hitting team. Those games give us a chance to go through the rotation roughly 4 times (actually 4 plus 3 starts) so we can see Mejia and Hughes start 4 times. The other 3 are safe until at least the trade deadline unless they implode completely. 

 

As much as I hate to say it, I doubt if there will be a major change like dropping a pitcher until that stretch is over. The FO will want that much time to evaluate the likely candidates - Breslow, Tonkin and Haley (or Duffy/Mejia to the minors as starters if they really like all three) - before making a move that could cost them the player. i'm sure they've tried to make a trade with Boston to get Haley and it hasn't worked. I've read that Boston wants him back and isn't interested in a trade. I think this is the pitching staff through most of April barring injury. 

 

I also would love to see a move on the rest of the roster but again just don't see it. Adrianza looked good this spring but if you bring him and drop Santana you only have Grossman as a spare outfielder. You have to keep Grossman because only he, Sano and Castro are hitting. You need a spare OF with Buxton, Rosario and Kepler all not hitting. That raises the question of when you cut bait on those as your three everyday OFs.  Probably too soon, but by late April we will have to make a move if all three still aren't hitting.  Making it more difficult is the lack of minor league depth - Rochester started or used Goodrum (maybe but just got to AAA), Schuck (mediocre MLB player at best), Paulson (corner IF out of position), and Palka (maybe a good hitter, liability as an OFer).

 

Soooo,  I predict no change in the roster until after 4/27, again barring injury, with the one possibility being Adrianza or possibly  Goodrum replacing Santana. They are moving Goodrum around in the minors so the plan may be for him to replace D Santana. After then, one of the RPs goes and either Park or Vargas comes up. 

 

I agree with this. The FO made these choices with April in mind, and they aren't going to change their mind 1 or 2 weeks in, IMO.

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DFA Breslow and Santana, bring up Goodrum and Vargas

Be careful what you wish for. Goodrum is on about the same level as Santana as regards reliability of the glove at present, which is to say, bad. Maybe he can clean things up, but he needs to do that at Rochester.

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