Shohei Otani

[Vanimal46]

60 Minutes had an exclusive interview with Shohei Otani last night... Trying to find the video as we speak, and will post it once it's available. He WILL sign with an MLB team after the 2017 season, CBA and potential money left on the table be damned. 

The big key with him signing in the MLB is finding a team that will allow him to pitch and DH or play in the field. I don't know how he'll choose his MLB team all things being equal. After watching his highlights and interview last night, I'd love for that guy to be on my favorite team. 

[Vanimal46]

Video not available yet, but the transcript of the interview can be found here.

[gunnarthor]

I have no idea what team lets him do that but it'll be fun to watch. 

[nicksaviking]

While I know he can play in the field, I would guess an AL team would be the best fit because of the DH possibility. Or maybe it wouldn't since you'd lose the DH for the day if he's pitching and hitting. I don't know, hard to wrap my head around this unique situation.

 

Still hard to not see him going to a big market though. If he is a two way player he's going to be a seat-filling novelty that any team would want. Well any team that isn't fearful of trying new ideas and strategies. I'm fairly confident Gardy and Ryan wouldn't have been comfortable giving a two way player a shot. It sure would be nice if other "Old School" types like Mike Scioscia and Dave Dombrowski find the idea off-putting. Getting the Angels and Red Sox out of the bidding sure would be helpful to a smaller market team's pursuit.

[Vanimal46]

Maybe Falvey and Levine are the ones who will think outside the box and let him do it! A guy can dream..... 

 

[Mike Sixel]

Given the stupid restrictions on what he can be paid (from a freedom perspective of the player....he's going to lose probably 9 figures), he'll go to a market where he can make boatloads of money doing endorsements and other things. He may or may not prioritize how good the team is.

 

I'm guessing LAD or Seattle or NYY.

 

Seattle, CA, NY, TX teams have the advantage there.

[Thrylos]

 

CBA and potential money left on the table be damned.

 

The CBA and the IFA cap is fairly irrelevant in this case.  The cap has to do with the bonus $ and not the contract $.   Most teams sign high level prospects to high bonuses but give them MiLB contracts, because they are not MLB-ready.

 

Otani is MLB-ready and could be signed to an MLB contract with zero or $1 bonus, so he will not affect a team's IFA cap.  This will be about the contract in years and $ and not about the signing bonus.

 

Looking at his numbers as a pitcher he looks a lot like Darvish and Tanaka did at a similar age, and slightly better than Dice-K.  The novelty is that he also hits and runs the bases.  I suspect that there are a lot of teams that will see this as an unnecessary risk, and Nishioka is a prime example that hitting in Japan does not always translate.

 

He might want to do both, but he might have to settle for a team that would sell novelty, instead of a competitive team

 

[Thrylos]

 

 

Given the stupid restrictions on what he can be paid (from a freedom perspective of the player....he's going to lose probably 9 figures),

 

That's inaccurate.  See above.

[Mike Sixel]

 

That's inaccurate.  See above.

 

Wanna place a wager on this, w/o going to the internet to check?

[nicksaviking]

 

Given the stupid restrictions on what he can be paid (from a freedom perspective of the player....he's going to lose probably 9 figures), he'll go to a market where he can make boatloads of money doing endorsements and other things. He may or may not prioritize how good the team is.

 

I'm guessing LAD or Seattle or NYY.

 

Seattle, CA, NY, TX teams have the advantage there.

 

There's a cap to how much the MLB teams can pay the foreign teams for the players rights, but not how much the player can make, from my understanding. I think the max cap is 20M and as long as more than one team bids 20M he can negotiate his salary with multiple teams.

 

A guy like Park was hindered because no one is going to bid the max cap which means there is no tie bid and the highest bidder wins negotiating rights. But a guy like Otani will surely have many if not most teams bidding the max.

[Pardon My Dinger]

Nobody's going to let him be more than a bench bat, right?

[Mike Sixel]

The new CBA limits spending on ANY IFA under 25 years of age....from mlbtraderumors.com....

 

"....the latest iteration of the CBA put hard caps on teams’ capacity to spend on international players who are under 25 years of age, thus precluding the possibility of Otani commanding a bonus befitting his ability until the 2019 season."

 

They can only spend $20MM on the posting fee, and the hard cap on the IFA. 

 

so, if he comes before 2019, it's a hard cap. 

[Vanimal46]

 

The new CBA limits spending on ANY IFA under 25 years of age....from mlbtraderumors.com....

 

"....the latest iteration of the CBA put hard caps on teams’ capacity to spend on international players who are under 25 years of age, thus precluding the possibility of Otani commanding a bonus befitting his ability until the 2019 season."

 

They can only spend $20MM on the posting fee, and the hard cap on the IFA. 

 

so, if he comes before 2019, it's a hard cap. 

 

So in the rare case that the Twins win the posting bid of $20 MM, then they could only offer him $5.25 MM in a contract? There's too many theories on this thread already that I'm confused. 

[Mike Sixel]

 

So in the rare case that the Twins win the posting bid of $20 MM, then they could only offer him $5.25 MM in a contract? There's too many theories on this thread already that I'm confused. 

 

https://theringer.com/whats-in-mlb-s-new-cba-11de1b0e5682

 

http://www.cbssports.com/mlb/news/why-the-new-cba-will-keep-japanese-phenom-shohei-otani-from-coming-to-mlb/

 

https://www.mlbtraderumors.com/2016/12/latest-on-shohei-otani-2.html

 

[nicksaviking]

 

The new CBA limits spending on ANY IFA under 25 years of age....from mlbtraderumors.com....

 

"....the latest iteration of the CBA put hard caps on teams’ capacity to spend on international players who are under 25 years of age, thus precluding the possibility of Otani commanding a bonus befitting his ability until the 2019 season."

 

They can only spend $20MM on the posting fee, and the hard cap on the IFA. 

 

so, if he comes before 2019, it's a hard cap. 

 

The Asian leagues also have the age restriction then? I guess that sounds familiar though I thought that was only for the countries south of the border.

[Thrylos]

 

The new CBA limits spending on ANY IFA under 25 years of age....from mlbtraderumors.com....

 

"....the latest iteration of the CBA put hard caps on teams’ capacity to spend on international players who are under 25 years of age, thus precluding the possibility of Otani commanding a bonus befitting his ability until the 2019 season."

 

They can only spend $20MM on the posting fee, and the hard cap on the IFA. 

 

so, if he comes before 2019, it's a hard cap. 

 

 

That is for the bonus.

 

There is no limit for the contract, esp. since he will be on the 40-man roster and given an MLB contract.  Someone can sign him for a 6/$120million contract if they wanted to

 

Were he a minor leaguer who would had to sign a minor league contract (like most young IFA,) if would had been a different story.

[Mike Sixel]

 

That is for the bonus.

 

There is no limit for the contract, esp. since he will be on the 40-man roster and given an MLB contract.  Someone can sign him for a 6/$120million contract if they wanted to

 

Were he a minor leaguer who would had to sign a minor league contract (like most young IFA,) if would had been a different story.

 

Well, every single link I've posted says otherwise, so I think you are wrong. 

 

They can't get around the "bonus" by offering a huge contract. Otherwise they would not post in every article that this makes it less likely he come here. So, either every article and analyst is wrong, or you are.

[Thrylos]

Who leaves $ on the table is the Japanese League teams, not the players, because the posting fee (that goes to teams and not players) has a cap.

[Thrylos]

 

 

Well, every single link I've posted says otherwise, so I think you are wrong. 

 

They can't get around the "bonus" by offering a huge contract. Otherwise they would not post in every article that this makes it less likely he come here. So, either every article and analyst is wrong, or you are.

 

Show me a single link that says that there is a limit in the contract they can offer, if this is an MLB contract.

 

One.

 

[Mike Sixel]

 

Who leaves $ on the table is the Japanese League teams, not the players, because the posting fee (that goes to teams and not players) has a cap.

 

did you read a single article I posted?

 

You realize you can't offer a $5MM bonus, and 100MM deal to any IFA any more, right? 

 

I'm done. 

[Thrylos]

 

did you read a single article I posted?

 

You realize you can't offer a $5MM bonus, and 100MM deal to any IFA any more, right? 

 

I'm done. 

 

Your prerogative, but, again, you have not posted anything that says there is a limit in the contract, if that is a major league contract. 

 

My point is that he will get a major league contract and be on the 40-man roster right away, unlike the cases of Yoan Moncada, Yadier Alvarez, etc who are the kind of people who will get affected by this.

 

Feel free to ignore the difference, but it does not make it go away

[Respy]

Otani has been an astronomically-regarded international prospect for years.

 

minorleaguebaseball.com: "The best pitching prospect in baseball."

Beyondtheboxscore.com: "Shohei Otani has the results, stuff and mechanics to make a compelling case for the title of best right-handed pitcher in the world."

SI.com: "Shohei Ohtani—Japan's Babe Ruth—is about to change the face of baseball"

 

Add on top of that the way things have gone for Nishioka and ByungHo Park with the Twins, I'd give this a 0.0000000000% chance that Otani ends up with the Twins.

[Steve Lein]

What am I missing here? All the articles say this will prevent Otani from coming for three years now, but I'm not quite sure I see why.

 

The cap is on the bonus. I've read that exact wording in several articles, including those linked here and others I've found on my own. What I haven't seen, is why a team couldn't just give the max bonus and then immediately sign him to an MLB contract extension for all the money he is actually worth. 

 

Now, I obviously don't see if there is wording in the CBA to prevent this type of thing, but teams don't have to wait a certain amount of time to sign their player's to extensions. Some get them their first year in the majors, or after just six MLB games like Evan Longoria.

 

Otani would be in the majors immediately, so why can't he then immediately get the big contract? Seems to me that would be pretty easy to negotiate on the front end.

 

 

 

[drjim]

An international guy who signs before age 25 can only sign a minor league contract. That's the point of the caps. Also why it was panned when the cba was signed.

[drjim]

Read here: https://www.mlbtraderumors.com/2017/04/latest-on-shohei-otani-3.html

 

He would have to wait two years for no spending cap.

[Willihammer]

Is it just me or is this situation ripe for corruption? Only what, a million and change separates the top and bottom bonus pools? Money won't be the deciding factor in where Otani chooses to play, so what will be?

[Vanimal46]

 

Is it just me or is this situation ripe for corruption? Only what, a million and change separates the top and bottom bonus pools? Money won't be the deciding factor in where Otani chooses to play, so what will be?

 

That's the $5.25 MM question specifically for the Twins... Does he follow Ichiro's path and choose Seattle? Follow Tanaka to New York? Or perhaps create his own legacy somewhere....  

[Steve Lein]

I don't read anything there that says he couldn't sign an extension. That's the wording that is missing in all these articles.

 

All it takes is one team to say we'll pay you what you would have gotten without the new rules. Show me where that is prevented, as I don't see it.

 

EDIT: I don't doubt it exists somehow, but it literally is not stated anywhere.

[Steve Lein]

 

Read here: https://www.mlbtraderumors.com/2017/04/latest-on-shohei-otani-3.html

He would have to wait two years for no spending cap.

 

Again, that's on the bonus to get him into your organization. 

 

He will be on an MLB roster quickly, if not immediately. At that point he has an MLB contract and the "only can sign a minor league contract" point is moot. Where does it say that he can't sign an extension until he's 25? That is not mentioned anywhere, and seems like a pretty big omission to me, as well as an easy loophole to exploit and leverage.

[nicksaviking]

 

Your prerogative, but, again, you have not posted anything that says there is a limit in the contract, if that is a major league contract. 

 

My point is that he will get a major league contract and be on the 40-man roster right away, unlike the cases of Yoan Moncada, Yadier Alvarez, etc who are the kind of people who will get affected by this.

 

Feel free to ignore the difference, but it does not make it go away

 

Those guys all signed before the new CBA when teams were free to go over slot on their international free agent money and pay the penalty.

 

The new CBA now prevents that if I'm not mistaken.