Article: Five Takeaways From A Fun First Week

[Han Joelo]

I'm not sure we should kick sand on the Royals just yet and label them a "bad" team.  They took 2 out of 3 against the Astros, missing the sweep thanks to our buddy Strahm, in a 12 inning game.  Sweeping the former Champs to start the season was huge.

 

Poo-poo Kintzler all you want, but I have great confidence in the guy now.  When his finger momentarily hurt yesterday, I felt a panic attack coming on--who is next in line at this point?  Pressly?  Belisle?  Duffman?  

 

Anyway, it's all just sequencing, luck, lousy opponents, unsustainable BABIPS,  and Danny Santana is still the worst baseball player in the history of man...they'll regress to the mean.

 

[bighat]

1. Polanco is legit.  He might be "The Guy" (see item #4)

2. Sano is the monster we thought he was

3. Starting pitching was great in the first week last year too.  I'm encouraged, but still not convinced that Santiago, Hughes, Gibson, and whoever's in the 5-hole will keep this up. 

4. Buxton isn't the next Mike Trout, and we'll be lucky if he's the next Otis Nixon.  With guys like Kepler, Rosario, and Sano...why do we keep the spotlight on Buxton to be "The Guy"?  Polanco is just 23 years old, same as Bux.  His future looks brighter than Buxton's right now and he just might be our #3 hitter by the end of 2017.   Maybe we should stop worrying about whether or not Buxton figures it out, and just enjoy watching Jorge Polanco make the All-Star team. 

5. The Twins are 5-1.  Hell yeah! 

 

[gocgo]

Lots of the things that have already been mentioned - Sano at bats, Polanco, Castro, etc...and this.  

 

Our pitchers are challenging batters inside more than I can ever remember.  We used to pitch like we were afraid of hitting guys.  Now we are serving notice that they better not get too comfortable in the box.  That has opened up the outside corner and allowed our pitchers to have success.

 

Also, it seems like the plate has shrunk.  The corners aren't being called as often.  It's early for the umps too.

Edited April 10, 2017 by gocgo

[iTwins]

We've come a long way from Willingham and/or Arcia anchoring OF corners. This OF defense is special - and it's going to help the entire pitching staff look a bit better. For instance, without Byron Buxton in center - Phil Hughes gets rocked in that first inning against the White Sox, and we're likely looking at a very different outcome in game one against Chicago. 

 

It's disappointing that Buxton hasn't kept his spring momentum as the games started counting - but his defense is elite, and worth putting up with some serious growing pains at the plate. 

[dbminn]

Pressley being used in a role like Andrew Miller. He's been brought in twice with multiple runners on base. Successful both times. Looks like he's the "high leverage" pitcher while Kinzler is the closer.

[Blackjack]

Time to give Buxton a day off (or two) to watch and learn.

[Blake]

 

I don't think we'll be as impressed with the rotation (Erv excluded) once we start playing teams that are actually...good. But, I think that the Castro effect and the team Defense could be durable, and that would be a humongous step for this team.

I'm starting to think the Twins are not a marginal team this year, simply because the outfield looks to be one of the best in the league along with the middle infield being solid. Those two things will make the Twins a club well worth watching this year.

[Vanimal46]

 

In his last 20 starts, Ervin Santana has a 2.23 ERA. If he keeps it up until the trade deadline, I wonder what a contender would be willing to give up to have him.

 

Pictured: Derek Falvey sleeping on August 1, 2017 if Erv keeps it up until the trade deadline. 

http://mrwgifs.com/wp-content/uploads/2014/02/Huell-Babineaux-Sleeping-On-The-Money-In-Breaking-Bad_408x408.jpg

[Trov]

1: The competency of the team as a whole.  I know SSS but last year there were no times you felt good about the team, whether the defense, the line up, or the pitching staff, especially the bullpen.  

 

2: The line ups.  I love the new approach to the game, when Gardy was here forever the game was starting to change and he was not willing to make the change.  Molitor has jumped on the train for change.  Willing to move guys up and down the line up based on match ups is huge, no more he is my ex hitter and does not matter who is pitching.

 

3: CASTRO: I loved the signing when they made it, and beginning to look even better, again SSS but he seems to bring something that Kurt never did.  That being known for his defense.  Last year teams ran all day on Kurt, so far this year it has slowed down, despite his two times in one game failing to even get off a throw.  I think a pitcher knowing he has a good defender behind the plate helps their confidence to go after the hitter more.  In terms of offense of course he will not do this all year, but he has shown he is a pro hitter up there willing to hit to all fields and work the count.

 

4. Defense.  It all starts with defense.  If you field well you will pitch well, unless you have a huge strikeout rate, which no Twins pitcher really does.  Only Sano has made terrible plays so far this year, and everyone has made some solid to great plays at times in the field.  

 

5. Buxton.  I say no more down to AAA just roll with him, most likely near the bottom of the order until he starts hitting.  I say this for the fact he has nothing to prove down there, and his defense is too important to the team, and until he starts actually costing the team as a hitter he helps too much as a fielder.  Mainly because of the domino effect it will have taking him out.  He sits that means either Santana or Grossman has to play in the OF.  Neither of witch are very good and will cost games in the long run.  Going back to pitchers having confidence that their defense will make a play goes a long way to pitching well.  If his defense starts to drop off and still hitting like this then revisit but if his defense stays this good he can't sit, defense wins championships.

[Pardon My Dinger]

Who is suggesting that Buxton be demoted? I WANT NAMES!

[mikelink45]

I cannot muster as much optimism as everyone else, but I do enjoy what has been going on.  Perhaps number one is the change in attitude of Twins Fans, Number two is the insistence on batting Mauer 3/4 even though his line is only better than Buxton. Number three the outfield defense is terrific and flyball pitchers like Hughes are going to benefit.  Number 4 we have not seen enough of Mejia and Haley to know if what we saw is what we will get, and number 5 it is nice to been up on bad teams, but in the next two rounds of the rotation we will finally have a better view of the season.

[Oldgoat_MN]

 

Pictured: Derek Falvey sleeping on August 1, 2017 if Erv keeps it up until the trade deadline. 

http://mrwgifs.com/wp-content/uploads/2014/02/Huell-Babineaux-Sleeping-On-The-Money-In-Breaking-Bad_408x408.jpg

Falvey looks bigger in this picture than I remember.

[Mike Sixel]

Hmmm, I'm not really sure what has changed about "committing" to OF defense. This is almost the same lineup they tried last year, the difference is Buxton is up. I think the meme is off here some, but whatever. As long as Buxton is in the majors, I don't think this is about "committing to defense", so much as playing the OF they expect to have, offense, defense, whatever. This was always the plan.

 

It's been a great first week. I've always backed ESan's ability to pitch, and he's been very nice so far. Sano can hit, I don't doubt that either. Polanco can hit, I don't doubt that. Castro is a guy I was hoping they'd trade for 2-3 years ago, definitely liked that signing.

 

Very nice start. It's more fun to win for sure.

[markos]

 

Hmmm, I'm not really sure what has changed about "committing" to OF defense. This is almost the same lineup they tried last year, the difference is Buxton is up. I think the meme is off here some, but whatever. As long as Buxton is in the majors, I don't think this is about "committing to defense", so much as playing the OF they expect to have, offense, defense, whatever. This was always the plan.

I see your point, but I think the "commitment" to defense is primarily seen with the fact that Grossman hasn't played an inning in the outfield yet. It is obviously a small sample so far (and we will probably never know for sure) but I would argue that a "bat-first" lineup against lefties would have Grossman in left, Escobar at 3rd, and Sano DHing. A lineup decision like that would be defensible against lefties, and better offensively. Instead, both Kepler and Rosario have started all 3 games against lefties, which at some level is prioritizing defense over offense. I think that is meaningful (and the right decision).

[Parker Hageman]

RE: Buxton.

 

I should save this for an actual article but given our HS baseball season starts today (Go Holy Angels), I don't know when I will have the time to put it all together. That said, here is some boring technical stuff about his swing…

 

Buxton has made a few cosmetic changes to his pre-swing mechanics that I believe is hindering him to some degree. The first is he has closed up his front side. In September last year he would start with his front side open before closing it during the leg kick. This year he starts more straight up facing the pitcher. 

 

 

The other thing he's gone away from is the pre-swing barrel tip. Last season during his load process Buxton would bring his barrel up almost vertically before getting into the launch position. This season the bat never goes that direction.

 

 

These are rhythm components of a swing, not major changes like a leg kick, but the barrel tip is something that helps create bat speed (here’s a very good read on that subject from Jerry Brewer). Think of it this way, tipping the barrel is like a running start in a race versus starting from a standstill. Last season we saw Brian Dozier add a barrel tip to his pre-swing before he started to take off. In addition to activating back and shoulder muscles, it can help timing and getting your body in the right sequence at the right time.

 

Are these the reasons he is having such a difficult time making contact? Possibly. As I mentioned, both elements play a role in timing a swing. At the end of last season we saw he crush all types of pitches in various counts which makes me think Buxton has a plenty good eye at the plate to pick up spin and whatnot.  

 

I had a very brief conversation with him during our spring training visit. Like most reports, he was teeming with confidence which was a stark contrast to where he was at last spring. “The leg kick is me now,” he told me in a way that made it seem like I asked if he would give up something special. But what sticks out to me now was that he said would send Torii Hunter video of his swing over the winter and Hunter would give him advice.

 

“He just told me the things he sees in the video that he would want to work on that’s really about staying in the groove and staying with the leg kick,” Buxton said. “So Torii and a few other guys, actually, I’d send them videos and they’d send me feedback.”

 

I don’t know what specific feedback Hunter gave Buxton on his swing. Knowing the Twins’ past hitting philosophies, I would bet that keeping his bat still was one instruction given to him this winter. Buxton also said last year that the Twins coaches had “closed him up” in rookie ball – which is probably why you see him with the more closed batting stance this season. Buxton said he had not worked much with James Rowson in camp at that point. Rowson was seen as a coach in observation mode rather than dispensing regular advice. I’m curious to know how Rowson will approach Buxton’s struggles. Hitting instruction is not simple but the first thing I would encourage is trying to go back to all the elements that made him successful in September/October. 

 

Sorry not sorry for hijacking the thread.

[Otto von Ballpark]

 

Fortunately, with the tremendous value he's providing on the other side (see item No. 1), it's pretty easy to live with him scuffling at the bottom of the order.

Out of curiosity, I looked up Buxton's 2017 WAR so far.  I know it's a super-small sample size and quite likely meaningless of the defensive side, but I thought it was interesting.  At B-Ref, he's -5 runs batting so far (basically the negative mirror of Sano at +5), but he's already +3 runs with the glove.

 

Of course, Fangraphs isn't even publishing UZR or defensive WAR for 2017 yet, which is probably wise.

[Mike Sixel]

 

I see your point, but I think the "commitment" to defense is primarily seen with the fact that Grossman hasn't played an inning in the outfield yet. It is obviously a small sample so far (and we will probably never know for sure) but I would argue that a "bat-first" lineup against lefties would have Grossman in left, Escobar at 3rd, and Sano DHing. A lineup decision like that would be defensible against lefties, and better offensively. Instead, both Kepler and Rosario have started all 3 games against lefties, which at some level is prioritizing defense over offense. I think that is meaningful (and the right decision).

 

To me, Kepler should be playing nearly every day. He's way too young to be in a platoon on a mediocre team.

[DaveW]

 

To me, Kepler should be playing nearly every day. He's way too young to be in a platoon on a mediocre team.

Yeah Kepler needs to be playing 162 (or damn close to it)

Rosario could be platooned, but then again Grossman is terrible defensively.

You know who would be a PERFECT platoon partner/4th OF for this team?

Aaron. Hicks.

[DaveW]

 

Fortunately, with the tremendous value he's providing on the other side (see item No. 1), it's pretty easy to live with him scuffling at the bottom of the order.
 

This is the key with Buxton, and why I am glad they moved him down sooner rather than later. Hopefully the kid can figure it out soon, maybe this off day will help, if I were the Twins I would have him taking extra extra extra BP every day.

[djvang]

Buxton shows that September stats should always be taken with many, many grains of salt.

[DaveW]

 

I cannot muster as much optimism as everyone else, but I do enjoy what has been going on.  Perhaps number one is the change in attitude of Twins Fans, Number two is the insistence on batting Mauer 3/4 even though his line is only better than Buxton. Number three the outfield defense is terrific and flyball pitchers like Hughes are going to benefit.  Number 4 we have not seen enough of Mejia and Haley to know if what we saw is what we will get, and number 5 it is nice to been up on bad teams, but in the next two rounds of the rotation we will finally have a better view of the season.

I think having Mauer bat in front of Sano is the smart thing to do, Mauer is a bit of a shell of his former self, but he still isn't going up to the plate swinging wildly and striking out a ton. I think it's very clear that the Twins want Sano to cut down on his strike outs this season, having him hit behind Mauer, see all of his at bats close up IMO is a good way to do that.

I think Mauer ends up with a decent .750-.770 OPS anyways.

If anything I'd rather have Mauer bat 2nd and Sano bat 3rd. Bring up Park and have him DH/bat 4th.

Edited April 10, 2017 by DaveW

[Ryan Atkins]

2nd best record in baseball (5-1) after week 1 gets you ranked #14 by ESPN -- LOL.

Just behind them at #15 is Toronto (1-5).

[TKGuy]

Boy, with Santana's relatively cheap contract and the way he is pitching since he came back last year, he could be the prize at the deadline, unless the Twins are still in it  #ItsHappening

[Nick Nelson]

 

Hmmm, I'm not really sure what has changed about "committing" to OF defense. This is almost the same lineup they tried last year, the difference is Buxton is up. I think the meme is off here some, but whatever. As long as Buxton is in the majors, I don't think this is about "committing to defense", so much as playing the OF they expect to have, offense, defense, whatever. This was always the plan.

The Twins ran out an OF alignment of Grossman-Rosario-Sano (EDIT: sorry I meant Arcia not Grossman) in three straight games last April. While Buxton was on the roster.

 

The entire Sano OF experiment in general, along with a willingness to give Grossman 72 starts in LF, was indicative of a lackluster emphasis on the importance of this component.

 

The only player who has set foot in the outfield over the first week this season other than the three starters is Danny Santana, who played left in one game. 

[Mike Sixel]

 

2nd best record in baseball (5-1) after week 1 gets you ranked #14 by ESPN -- LOL.

Just behind them at #15 is Toronto (1-5).

 

What are you expecting? Do you think people should change what they thought the Twins were after 6 games?

[Mike Sixel]

 

The Twins ran out an OF alignment of Grossman-Rosario-Sano in three straight games last April. While Buxton was on the roster.

 

The entire Sano OF experiment in general, along with a willingness to give Grossman 72 starts in LF, was indicative of a lackluster emphasis on the importance of this component.

 

The only player who has set foot in the outfield over the first week this season other than the three starters is Danny Santana, who played left in one game. 

 

Fair on Sano. But Grossman and Santana played a lot when Rosario and Kepler weren't here, or when they were trying Sano (an experiment I somehow forgot). But, if I'm not mistaken, this was pretty much the OF once Buxton was promoted, and that was always the plan. I just don't see some great sea change here that you do. 

[Otto von Ballpark]

 

2nd best record in baseball (5-1) after week 1 gets you ranked #14 by ESPN -- LOL.

Just behind them at #15 is Toronto (1-5).

Cincinnati had the 2nd best record in baseball at 5-1 a year ago today. LOL?

 

If you want a list of best 2017 records, you can sort the standings by winning percentage. Obviously ESPN's rankings are trying to accomplish something else.  (I don't pay attention to ESPN so I have no idea how successful they are at accomplishing that goal, but the discrepancy between the Twins current record and rank would not be a valid criticism of their efficacy.)

[Ryan Atkins]

Many great posts here already. My takeaways are:

 

1. Defense. Aside from the blown rundown of the busted squeeze play the other day, the D has been outstanding.

 

2. The strong early play from Jason Castro, Miguel Sano, and Jorge Polanco. So important when you have the likes of Buxton, Dozier, and Mauer starting slowly.

 

3. Pitching. The key to any team's success. Santana has lived up to being out #1. I was impressed with Hughes. Underwhelmed be Gibson and Santiago, but they did OK. Mejia, we'll see, deserves a few more starts. Bullpen is strong and I think that can continue if they don't get overworked (i.e., starters continue to do well).

[adorduan]

While this is fun and all, we've played 3.7% of the season.  If we are .500 after 40 games I'll start to get excited.

[ThejacKmp]

 

Buxton shows that September stats should always be taken with many, many grains of salt.

 

As should small samples in April. Moving him down was smart but let's not give up on him.