Article: Minnesota Twins 2017 Preview: A New Era

[Nick Nelson]

To the great consternation of uniform purists everywhere, the New Era brand logo will appear on MLB caps this regular season for the first time, a practice that started in last year's playoffs.

 

In the eyes of some, this is yet another obnoxious step toward commercialization of the product on the field. But in the case of the Minnesota Twins, it is a rather fitting insignia as the franchise wades into unfamiliar territory with an overhauled baseball operations unit led by total outsiders.Understandably, there's a general feeling of dissatisfaction among the fanbase after 103 losses were followed by a relatively quiet offseason on the player acquisition front.

 

A roster that stumbled to the worst finish in the history of Twins baseball is back, largely intact.

 

A rotation that ranked as the league's worst, routinely erasing any meaningful chance at a victory before games were half-done, brings only one new face: rookie Adalberto Mejia, who will be making his first major-league start when he takes on the White Sox in Chicago this weekend.

 

A bullpen that failed frequently to put out fires, often fanning the flames for a full scale inferno, opens as a classic Twins group in all the wrong ways. Contact-prone veterans in high-leverage roles (Brandon Kintzler, Matt Belisle, Craig Breslow), quantity over quality, general lack of upside.

 

On the surface, it's easy to look at the construction of the Opening Day roster and feel dispirited as we lurch into Year 7 in this this almost exclusively non-competitive slog.

 

It's a grand old game, to be sure, but the spectating appeal wanes as losses mount, especially when there's been so much lousy baseball contributing to that end. It comes as no surprise that the Twins are struggling to sell tickets, nor that polled fans are woefully pessimistic about the team's chances. Most would not be surprised to see another 0-9 start, or worse.

 

Winning is the primary imperative right now, and I'm not just talking about placing notches on the left column. More importantly, they need to win back the hearts of casual followers and baseball enthusiasts. While a return to contention will ultimately drive this, the Twins can begin to move the needle simply by showing real progress.

 

Therein lies their advantage. With expectations so staggeringly low, this is a tremendous opportunity for the club to pleasantly surprise. And while the minimal roster tweaking may not inspire confidence of a turnaround in the near future, foundational changes within the organization provide a central storyline that will define this season and give onlookers plenty of incentive to tune in and stay engaged.

 

Open Minds

 

At Sunday's final preseason presser, Paul Molitor acknowledged that his team hasn't offered much to cheer about but urged fans to be "open-minded," and it is advice that all should heed.

 

No one can be blamed for carrying an ingrained skepticism about this team, or even a sense of apathy. Minnesota's run of difficulties and setbacks over the past several years have overshadowed any other franchise in the game. With the misery sinking to a new depth in 2016, there's no real feeling of upward momentum at this time.

 

But the previous leadership is gone. The new top baseball bosses at 1 Twins Way are both external hires with no real ties to the organization.

 

Derek Falvey, the fast-rising exec whose relative youth and inexperience are befitting the project he inherits, comes from a Cleveland operation that has become the crown jewel of the AL Central – not to mention a hotbed of mineable front office talent.

 

Thad Levine, his hand-picked GM and right-hand man, was a longtime staple in a Texas braintrust that mastered the model of perpetual competitiveness, with seven first- or second-place finishes in the last eight years.

 

Rob Antony, who made some impressive moves during his brief time at the helm as Terry Ryan's interim replacement, stays on and lends continuity from the old regime, but he is clearly No. 3 in the reconfigured hierarchy.

 

There are systemic and pervasive issues afflicting this organization, and it may take time to lay proper groundwork for the sustainable contending models Falvey and Levine helped build elsewhere and envision here. In the words of team president Dave St. Peter, they're not "miracle men."

 

No miracles required. Just sound and proactive decision-making, unobstructed by outdated mindsets or inhibiting loyalties. The new hires may have been selected specifically because they embody such characteristics. While we presently know little about the new executive duo, we do know two things:

 

1) This will be a front office that relies much more strongly upon analytics and modern philosophies, incorporating data and innovations while recognizing the blueprint for building a champion in today's MLB.

 

2) Any assessments being made by Falvey and Levine, whether regarding players or employees or frameworks in place, come with no shading from preconception or attachment. Complaints of the Twins lagging due to insularity or staleness are baseless going forward. It is clear that these guys are coming in with open minds, so fans should do the same.

 

For those of us who enjoy following the nuts and bolts of roster management almost as much as the action on the field, this represents the most curiosity-piquing time for the Twins in decades.

 

Better Days Ahead

 

When you take away the emotion, and the raw freshness of 2016, there really is not much reason to expect the Twins to be terrible this year. They'll probably be bad, yes, nothing approaching the unwatchable mess that unfolded last summer. Betting lines have Minnesota pegged at 74.5 wins. Baseball Prospectus projects 78. These are objective measures for setting a predictive baseline on the team's outcome. Improving by 15 wins is about what we should anticipate.

 

Of course, these same conventions also painted the Twins as a decent team last spring, when they wrapped up a similarly positive camp only to step into the regular season like a racehorse whose leg snapped as he ventured from the gate. No predictive tool can really account for the variables that conspired to turn an 83-win team into a 59-win disaster.

 

But such tools also cannot account for unexpected breakthroughs and fortuitous turns. Such things have been in short supply for Minnesota lately, but how often in the marathon baseball schedule is a long losing spell countered by an ensuing hot streak?

 

What happens to that 75-win baseline if Byron Buxton, more comfortable at the plate, turns into an offensive force and emerges as one of the game's premier impact players? What happens if the four veterans in the rotation replicate their 2014 performances, and Mejia proves a capable newcomer? What happens if the bullpen infusion starts coming to fruition and Tyler Jay is setting up JT Chargois in meaningful August games?

 

Yes, this is a time of year where the mind tends to wander amid a teeming haze of promise and hope. Maybe that feels so much more convincing this spring because the bar is set so very low.

 

Even if the Twins don't break an eight-year run of Opening Day losses on Monday afternoon, I do feel safe in saying they'll win their first game before April 15th.

 

From there, it's all uphill.

 

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[theBOMisthebomb]

Hope springs eternal and there is a new season upon us and the Twins are undefeated. While the lack of offseason moves and roster construction by the front office has been baffling, I am willing to be patient for now and give them a chance. With the young talent the Twins (hopefully) have the future feels bright for the first time in a long time.

[hybridbear]

It will be interesting to see what changes become apparent due to the influence of Falvey & Levine. I wonder if we'll see improved lineup construction, better managing of relievers, and more platoons. I sure hope we do. I'm looking forward to reading all the great analysis on Twins Daily as another season begins.

[DocBauer]

Nick, well written, and a fair look at both sides of the current state of the Twins, positive and negative roster assessment. Well Done!

 

I do have to say, as you alludes to near the end of the article, this is close to the team that finished last season, and has question marks to be sure, but not the same team that began the season.

 

Kepler, Sami and Polanco did not begin 2016, or were in the wrong spot. The bullpen has at least been tweaked a bit. Mejia and Santiago were not even with the Twins to begin '16. Hughes and Gibson were injured, or were shortly. There is at least some hope here.

[Brock Beauchamp]

I refuse to attribute the flaws of the old front office to the new front office, even if the early results look similar.

 

It's Opening Day after a single offseason where the front office was put into a rather uncomfortable situation (and entered the situation far later than anyone would have liked, I'm sure).

 

If I see the old problems pop up in June and July, then I will become concerned.

 

We're four months into a regime that needs at least three years to evaluate. I will give them a bit more leash before jumping off the bandwagon.

 

None of this means I agree with or like some of their decisions but so far, I haven't seen any deal-breaker moves/non-moves.

[Richie the Rally Goat]

 

I refuse to attribute the flaws of the old front office to the new front office, even if the early results look similar.

 

It's Opening Day after a single offseason where the front office was put into a rather uncomfortable situation (and entered the situation far later than anyone would have liked, I'm sure).

 

If I see the old problems pop up in June and July, then I will become concerned.

 

We're four months into a regime that needs at least three years to evaluate. I will give them a bit more leash before jumping off the bandwagon.

 

None of this means I agree with or like some of their decisions but so far, I haven't seen any deal-breaker moves/non-moves.

also, a number of people from the old regime are still in the ranks. It takes time to assimilate or jettison those people.